The Blanton Ripoff
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Gordon Gekko II
- Posts: 1941
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:00 pm
The Blanton Ripoff
well said Todd. you are one of the few people i have a lot of respect for. you are very good at analysis
The Blanton Ripoff
Originally posted by ToddZ:
Cliff Note's version is if you look at BB, K, HR and hits and rank them from most in pitcher's control to least, I believe K and BB are at the top, striking guys out and not walking them is more skill than luck, lots more. I believe he has a decent chance to sustain the improved K/9 going to the NL though I would like to see a better BB/9 as a hedge.
At the bottom is hits - google DIPS and McCracken to get details, but normally, 25% of line drives are outs, 80% of fly balls and 75% of grounders. A higher percentage and the hit per inning is "lucky", usually less than a hit per inning (ballpark). A lower percentage and the guy is unlucky and he gives up more than a hit an inning, again ballpark.
57 hits in 44 innings, UNLUCKY
The catch is Blanton's hits are high because he is giving up more line drives than normal. THIS IS THE BIGGEST POINT OF CONTENTION BETWEEN THE NUMBERS GUYS AND THE SCOUTING GUYS. Is the elevated LD% bad luck or bad pitching? This is where the 7 of 10 and 10 of 10 I alluded to above comes into play. I elect to fall on the side that says historically, his LD% is 20%, it is now 26%, going forward I expect 20%.
Not saying he will give up about 31 hits in his next 44 to make it 88 in 88 and "even out", saying I expect 44 in the next 44.
The wild card is homers, which is in-between luck and skill.
ON THE AVERAGE, 10-11% of fly balls go for homers. ON THE AVERAGE. The number of HRs is number of fly balls given up times percentage that go for homers.
I expect Blanton's HR/FB to be higher in CBP. It is now 17%. I believe that will come down.
I'll let those with their own xERA formulas come up with the actual number, but going forward, I see a guy with
K/9 7.1-7.5
BB/9 2.8-3.3
HR/9 1.1-1.3 (his biggest issue and why he is a streamer and not a regular)
BABIP .300 Zola is like the Stephen Hawkins of Fantasy BB. Give up Crazy you can not win this debate. Gekko pulled out his trump card (Zola).
Cliff Note's version is if you look at BB, K, HR and hits and rank them from most in pitcher's control to least, I believe K and BB are at the top, striking guys out and not walking them is more skill than luck, lots more. I believe he has a decent chance to sustain the improved K/9 going to the NL though I would like to see a better BB/9 as a hedge.
At the bottom is hits - google DIPS and McCracken to get details, but normally, 25% of line drives are outs, 80% of fly balls and 75% of grounders. A higher percentage and the hit per inning is "lucky", usually less than a hit per inning (ballpark). A lower percentage and the guy is unlucky and he gives up more than a hit an inning, again ballpark.
57 hits in 44 innings, UNLUCKY
The catch is Blanton's hits are high because he is giving up more line drives than normal. THIS IS THE BIGGEST POINT OF CONTENTION BETWEEN THE NUMBERS GUYS AND THE SCOUTING GUYS. Is the elevated LD% bad luck or bad pitching? This is where the 7 of 10 and 10 of 10 I alluded to above comes into play. I elect to fall on the side that says historically, his LD% is 20%, it is now 26%, going forward I expect 20%.
Not saying he will give up about 31 hits in his next 44 to make it 88 in 88 and "even out", saying I expect 44 in the next 44.
The wild card is homers, which is in-between luck and skill.
ON THE AVERAGE, 10-11% of fly balls go for homers. ON THE AVERAGE. The number of HRs is number of fly balls given up times percentage that go for homers.
I expect Blanton's HR/FB to be higher in CBP. It is now 17%. I believe that will come down.
I'll let those with their own xERA formulas come up with the actual number, but going forward, I see a guy with
K/9 7.1-7.5
BB/9 2.8-3.3
HR/9 1.1-1.3 (his biggest issue and why he is a streamer and not a regular)
BABIP .300 Zola is like the Stephen Hawkins of Fantasy BB. Give up Crazy you can not win this debate. Gekko pulled out his trump card (Zola).
"I don't remmeber what I don't remember.”- Jerry Garcia
-
Gordon Gekko II
- Posts: 1941
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:00 pm
The Blanton Ripoff
Originally posted by Dub:
Zola is like the Stephen Hawkins of Fantasy BB. Give up Crazy you can not win this debate. Gekko pulled out his trump card (Zola).
Zola is like the Stephen Hawkins of Fantasy BB. Give up Crazy you can not win this debate. Gekko pulled out his trump card (Zola).
-
Crazy Like a Fox
- Posts: 1077
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- Contact:
The Blanton Ripoff
Originally posted by ToddZ:
Cliff Note's version is if you look at BB, K, HR and hits and rank them from most in pitcher's control to least, I believe K and BB are at the top, striking guys out and not walking them is more skill than luck, lots more. I believe he has a decent chance to sustain the improved K/9 going to the NL though I would like to see a better BB/9 as a hedge.
At the bottom is hits - google DIPS and McCracken to get details, but normally, 25% of line drives are outs, 80% of fly balls and 75% of grounders. A higher percentage and the hit per inning is "lucky", usually less than a hit per inning (ballpark). A lower percentage and the guy is unlucky and he gives up more than a hit an inning, again ballpark.
57 hits in 44 innings, UNLUCKY
The catch is Blanton's hits are high because he is giving up more line drives than normal. THIS IS THE BIGGEST POINT OF CONTENTION BETWEEN THE NUMBERS GUYS AND THE SCOUTING GUYS. Is the elevated LD% bad luck or bad pitching? This is where the 7 of 10 and 10 of 10 I alluded to above comes into play. I elect to fall on the side that says historically, his LD% is 20%, it is now 26%, going forward I expect 20%.
Not saying he will give up about 31 hits in his next 44 to make it 88 in 88 and "even out", saying I expect 44 in the next 44.
The wild card is homers, which is in-between luck and skill.
ON THE AVERAGE, 10-11% of fly balls go for homers. ON THE AVERAGE. The number of HRs is number of fly balls given up times percentage that go for homers.
I expect Blanton's HR/FB to be higher in CBP. It is now 17%. I believe that will come down.
I'll let those with their own xERA formulas come up with the actual number, but going forward, I see a guy with
K/9 7.1-7.5
BB/9 2.8-3.3
HR/9 1.1-1.3 (his biggest issue and why he is a streamer and not a regular)
BABIP .300 Apparently in 2006 when he gave up 241 hits in 194 innings he was unlucky. In 2008 pitching in a great pitcher's park he gave up 145 hits in 127 innings. In 2009, again, incredibly "unlucky" to give up 57 hits in 45 innings. All's I'm saying is at some point you can throw the luck factor out the door. The guy gives up a lot of hits.
BA against can fluctuate quite a bit but one thing's for sure, the elite pitchers don't give up very many hits, period. With your logic all elite pitchers are lucky?
Apparently there aren't any hard to hit pitchers, only lucky to hit pitchers.
Cliff Note's version is if you look at BB, K, HR and hits and rank them from most in pitcher's control to least, I believe K and BB are at the top, striking guys out and not walking them is more skill than luck, lots more. I believe he has a decent chance to sustain the improved K/9 going to the NL though I would like to see a better BB/9 as a hedge.
At the bottom is hits - google DIPS and McCracken to get details, but normally, 25% of line drives are outs, 80% of fly balls and 75% of grounders. A higher percentage and the hit per inning is "lucky", usually less than a hit per inning (ballpark). A lower percentage and the guy is unlucky and he gives up more than a hit an inning, again ballpark.
57 hits in 44 innings, UNLUCKY
The catch is Blanton's hits are high because he is giving up more line drives than normal. THIS IS THE BIGGEST POINT OF CONTENTION BETWEEN THE NUMBERS GUYS AND THE SCOUTING GUYS. Is the elevated LD% bad luck or bad pitching? This is where the 7 of 10 and 10 of 10 I alluded to above comes into play. I elect to fall on the side that says historically, his LD% is 20%, it is now 26%, going forward I expect 20%.
Not saying he will give up about 31 hits in his next 44 to make it 88 in 88 and "even out", saying I expect 44 in the next 44.
The wild card is homers, which is in-between luck and skill.
ON THE AVERAGE, 10-11% of fly balls go for homers. ON THE AVERAGE. The number of HRs is number of fly balls given up times percentage that go for homers.
I expect Blanton's HR/FB to be higher in CBP. It is now 17%. I believe that will come down.
I'll let those with their own xERA formulas come up with the actual number, but going forward, I see a guy with
K/9 7.1-7.5
BB/9 2.8-3.3
HR/9 1.1-1.3 (his biggest issue and why he is a streamer and not a regular)
BABIP .300 Apparently in 2006 when he gave up 241 hits in 194 innings he was unlucky. In 2008 pitching in a great pitcher's park he gave up 145 hits in 127 innings. In 2009, again, incredibly "unlucky" to give up 57 hits in 45 innings. All's I'm saying is at some point you can throw the luck factor out the door. The guy gives up a lot of hits.
BA against can fluctuate quite a bit but one thing's for sure, the elite pitchers don't give up very many hits, period. With your logic all elite pitchers are lucky?
Apparently there aren't any hard to hit pitchers, only lucky to hit pitchers.
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
The Blanton Ripoff
When someone knows the historical LD%, the pitchers current standard deviation and the probable reversion to the mean, I know my goose is cooked.
Some college somewhere most have a baseball statistic course.
[ May 21, 2009, 09:00 PM: Message edited by: Dub ]
Some college somewhere most have a baseball statistic course.
[ May 21, 2009, 09:00 PM: Message edited by: Dub ]
"I don't remmeber what I don't remember.”- Jerry Garcia
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Crazy Like a Fox
- Posts: 1077
- Joined: Tue Nov 21, 2006 6:00 pm
- Contact:
The Blanton Ripoff
Originally posted by Dub:
quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:
Cliff Note's version is if you look at BB, K, HR and hits and rank them from most in pitcher's control to least, I believe K and BB are at the top, striking guys out and not walking them is more skill than luck, lots more. I believe he has a decent chance to sustain the improved K/9 going to the NL though I would like to see a better BB/9 as a hedge.
At the bottom is hits - google DIPS and McCracken to get details, but normally, 25% of line drives are outs, 80% of fly balls and 75% of grounders. A higher percentage and the hit per inning is "lucky", usually less than a hit per inning (ballpark). A lower percentage and the guy is unlucky and he gives up more than a hit an inning, again ballpark.
57 hits in 44 innings, UNLUCKY
The catch is Blanton's hits are high because he is giving up more line drives than normal. THIS IS THE BIGGEST POINT OF CONTENTION BETWEEN THE NUMBERS GUYS AND THE SCOUTING GUYS. Is the elevated LD% bad luck or bad pitching? This is where the 7 of 10 and 10 of 10 I alluded to above comes into play. I elect to fall on the side that says historically, his LD% is 20%, it is now 26%, going forward I expect 20%.
Not saying he will give up about 31 hits in his next 44 to make it 88 in 88 and "even out", saying I expect 44 in the next 44.
The wild card is homers, which is in-between luck and skill.
ON THE AVERAGE, 10-11% of fly balls go for homers. ON THE AVERAGE. The number of HRs is number of fly balls given up times percentage that go for homers.
I expect Blanton's HR/FB to be higher in CBP. It is now 17%. I believe that will come down.
I'll let those with their own xERA formulas come up with the actual number, but going forward, I see a guy with
K/9 7.1-7.5
BB/9 2.8-3.3
HR/9 1.1-1.3 (his biggest issue and why he is a streamer and not a regular)
BABIP .300 Zola is like the Stephen Hawkins of Fantasy BB. Give up Crazy you can not win this debate. Gekko pulled out his trump card (Zola). [/QUOTE]We had a similar type argument a couple years ago about whether James Loney would have trouble scoring runs. I said he would have trouble scoring runs and he disagreed. I cited a poor on-base percentage combined with lack of speed. He said it has more to do with lineup strength and came up with all these statistics to try to back up his claim that Loney will be fine in that cat.
What did Loney do the following year? Score 66 runs in 595 at-bats. This year, 17 runs in 42 games. My point being, he "won" that argument at the time, but the proof is in the numbers that follow. Blanton is not a good pitcher, I don't care how somebody spins the numbers. The proof is in the outcome. Blanton's outcome is looking hazy at best. I still don't see how you can look at his numbers over his career and see potential growth. I see some overrating his small sample size with Philly last year and now sticking to that thinking, no matter how badly he pitches. My point is he doesn't have any history backing up an improvement in numbers, and the fact he's getting torched right now shouldn't be a major surprise. What is a surprise is that his numbers actually look good to a few.
He's got a career e.r.a./whip of 4.35 and 1.35.
His current e.r.a./whip is 7.00 with a 1.70 whip. If Todd can see spin some positive stat from out of that, then maybe he is Stephen Hawking.
Maybe he can be the first to write "The Brief History of Joe Blanton". Chapter 1-14 can talk about how "great" his peripherals are, the closing chapter can talk about how bad his "actual" numbers are.
[ May 21, 2009, 09:09 PM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]
quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:
Cliff Note's version is if you look at BB, K, HR and hits and rank them from most in pitcher's control to least, I believe K and BB are at the top, striking guys out and not walking them is more skill than luck, lots more. I believe he has a decent chance to sustain the improved K/9 going to the NL though I would like to see a better BB/9 as a hedge.
At the bottom is hits - google DIPS and McCracken to get details, but normally, 25% of line drives are outs, 80% of fly balls and 75% of grounders. A higher percentage and the hit per inning is "lucky", usually less than a hit per inning (ballpark). A lower percentage and the guy is unlucky and he gives up more than a hit an inning, again ballpark.
57 hits in 44 innings, UNLUCKY
The catch is Blanton's hits are high because he is giving up more line drives than normal. THIS IS THE BIGGEST POINT OF CONTENTION BETWEEN THE NUMBERS GUYS AND THE SCOUTING GUYS. Is the elevated LD% bad luck or bad pitching? This is where the 7 of 10 and 10 of 10 I alluded to above comes into play. I elect to fall on the side that says historically, his LD% is 20%, it is now 26%, going forward I expect 20%.
Not saying he will give up about 31 hits in his next 44 to make it 88 in 88 and "even out", saying I expect 44 in the next 44.
The wild card is homers, which is in-between luck and skill.
ON THE AVERAGE, 10-11% of fly balls go for homers. ON THE AVERAGE. The number of HRs is number of fly balls given up times percentage that go for homers.
I expect Blanton's HR/FB to be higher in CBP. It is now 17%. I believe that will come down.
I'll let those with their own xERA formulas come up with the actual number, but going forward, I see a guy with
K/9 7.1-7.5
BB/9 2.8-3.3
HR/9 1.1-1.3 (his biggest issue and why he is a streamer and not a regular)
BABIP .300 Zola is like the Stephen Hawkins of Fantasy BB. Give up Crazy you can not win this debate. Gekko pulled out his trump card (Zola). [/QUOTE]We had a similar type argument a couple years ago about whether James Loney would have trouble scoring runs. I said he would have trouble scoring runs and he disagreed. I cited a poor on-base percentage combined with lack of speed. He said it has more to do with lineup strength and came up with all these statistics to try to back up his claim that Loney will be fine in that cat.
What did Loney do the following year? Score 66 runs in 595 at-bats. This year, 17 runs in 42 games. My point being, he "won" that argument at the time, but the proof is in the numbers that follow. Blanton is not a good pitcher, I don't care how somebody spins the numbers. The proof is in the outcome. Blanton's outcome is looking hazy at best. I still don't see how you can look at his numbers over his career and see potential growth. I see some overrating his small sample size with Philly last year and now sticking to that thinking, no matter how badly he pitches. My point is he doesn't have any history backing up an improvement in numbers, and the fact he's getting torched right now shouldn't be a major surprise. What is a surprise is that his numbers actually look good to a few.
He's got a career e.r.a./whip of 4.35 and 1.35.
His current e.r.a./whip is 7.00 with a 1.70 whip. If Todd can see spin some positive stat from out of that, then maybe he is Stephen Hawking.
Maybe he can be the first to write "The Brief History of Joe Blanton". Chapter 1-14 can talk about how "great" his peripherals are, the closing chapter can talk about how bad his "actual" numbers are.
[ May 21, 2009, 09:09 PM: Message edited by: Crazy Like a Fox ]
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)
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sportsbettingman
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The Blanton Ripoff
A scout may say "I see his throwing motion or release point or attitude or confidence or stride to the plate or balance or etc...is off or getting better"
The STAT guy says...blah...it will all be seen in the stats eventually.
The STAT guy says "The K/9 and BB/9 and K/BB and LD% and such and such says he should be a stud"
The scout guy says...blah...all that matters are the 5 X 5 categories that count.
They both are dedicated players...but I think the scout notices a change for better or worse faster than the stats guy.
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance
[ May 21, 2009, 09:13 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
The STAT guy says...blah...it will all be seen in the stats eventually.
The STAT guy says "The K/9 and BB/9 and K/BB and LD% and such and such says he should be a stud"
The scout guy says...blah...all that matters are the 5 X 5 categories that count.
They both are dedicated players...but I think the scout notices a change for better or worse faster than the stats guy.
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance
[ May 21, 2009, 09:13 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
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Gordon Gekko II
- Posts: 1941
- Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2008 6:00 pm
The Blanton Ripoff
1. crazy - why do u continue to discount blanton's K rate with his move to the NL. over 120 innings at a clip of over 7k per 9 innings? does he need 500 innings in the NL before u look at them. get ahead of the curve, not behind it.
2. crazy - # of runs is definately a function of many variables including speed and lineup!
3. lance - scouts don't play fantasy baseball. and if did, they'd get their asses kicked
no brainers here gentlemen
2. crazy - # of runs is definately a function of many variables including speed and lineup!
3. lance - scouts don't play fantasy baseball. and if did, they'd get their asses kicked
no brainers here gentlemen
The Blanton Ripoff
Originally posted by Crazy Like a Fox:
Apparently in 2006 when he gave up 241 hits in 194 innings he was unlucky. In 2008 pitching in a great pitcher's park he gave up 145 hits in 127 innings. In 2009, again, incredibly "unlucky" to give up 57 hits in 45 innings. All's I'm saying is at some point you can throw the luck factor out the door. The guy gives up a lot of hits.
BA against can fluctuate quite a bit but one thing's for sure, the elite pitchers don't give up very many hits, period. With your logic all elite pitchers are lucky?
Apparently there aren't any hard to hit pitchers, only lucky to hit pitchers. Couple things...
#1 I was ballparking a hit an inning, the better way to look at it is BABIP
(hits - HR) / (AB - K - HR)
basically, batting average on balls in play. League average is usually .290-.310. Hitters establish their own level, pitchers USUALLY regress to .300, with some exceptions.
Blanton
2005 .255 LUCKY
2006 .337 UNLUCKY
2007 .306
2008 .297
2009 .350
His LD% ranged from 18-20.4% the first 4 years. It is now 26% driving that .350 BABIP.
Am I 100% positive his LD% and BABIP will come down? No, I can't be sure.
Does history suggest it will?
Yes.
#2 With respect to elite pitchers not giving up a lot of hits...
Johan's career BABIP is .287
Lincecum's is .316
Halladay is .298
Peavy is .294
Hamels is .288
Sabathia is .296
Pedro's was .291
It is likely lost in the shuffle, but earlier in the thread I suggested I believe pitchers exhibit some level of control over BABIP that goes beyond Fb% and GB%.
BUT....
An elite pitcher is an elite pitcher because he STRIKES GUYS OUT and secondarily keeps the ball in the yard.
The more strikeouts, the fewer balls in play, the fewer balls in play, the fewer hits he gives up.
Totally rough math here...
If a guys strikes out 50 fewer hitters over the course of the season, he needs 50 more outs. If 30% of batted balls go for hits, then in order to get 50 outs on batted balls, he needed to face 71 hitters, meaning 21 got hits.
REAL ROUGH ESTIMATES
50 more K = 21 fewer hits.
THAT's why elite pitchers give up fewer hits.
Apparently in 2006 when he gave up 241 hits in 194 innings he was unlucky. In 2008 pitching in a great pitcher's park he gave up 145 hits in 127 innings. In 2009, again, incredibly "unlucky" to give up 57 hits in 45 innings. All's I'm saying is at some point you can throw the luck factor out the door. The guy gives up a lot of hits.
BA against can fluctuate quite a bit but one thing's for sure, the elite pitchers don't give up very many hits, period. With your logic all elite pitchers are lucky?
Apparently there aren't any hard to hit pitchers, only lucky to hit pitchers.
Couple things...#1 I was ballparking a hit an inning, the better way to look at it is BABIP
(hits - HR) / (AB - K - HR)
basically, batting average on balls in play. League average is usually .290-.310. Hitters establish their own level, pitchers USUALLY regress to .300, with some exceptions.
Blanton
2005 .255 LUCKY
2006 .337 UNLUCKY
2007 .306
2008 .297
2009 .350
His LD% ranged from 18-20.4% the first 4 years. It is now 26% driving that .350 BABIP.
Am I 100% positive his LD% and BABIP will come down? No, I can't be sure.
Does history suggest it will?
Yes.
#2 With respect to elite pitchers not giving up a lot of hits...
Johan's career BABIP is .287
Lincecum's is .316
Halladay is .298
Peavy is .294
Hamels is .288
Sabathia is .296
Pedro's was .291
It is likely lost in the shuffle, but earlier in the thread I suggested I believe pitchers exhibit some level of control over BABIP that goes beyond Fb% and GB%.
BUT....
An elite pitcher is an elite pitcher because he STRIKES GUYS OUT and secondarily keeps the ball in the yard.
The more strikeouts, the fewer balls in play, the fewer balls in play, the fewer hits he gives up.
Totally rough math here...
If a guys strikes out 50 fewer hitters over the course of the season, he needs 50 more outs. If 30% of batted balls go for hits, then in order to get 50 outs on batted balls, he needed to face 71 hitters, meaning 21 got hits.
REAL ROUGH ESTIMATES
50 more K = 21 fewer hits.
THAT's why elite pitchers give up fewer hits.
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Gordon Gekko II
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The Blanton Ripoff
todd - you are killing most of us here!
you showed up to a gun fight with a couple fully loaded AK-47's. crazy showed up with an empty BB-gun!!!
crazy - do you know what BABIP means and how it is calculated?
you showed up to a gun fight with a couple fully loaded AK-47's. crazy showed up with an empty BB-gun!!!
crazy - do you know what BABIP means and how it is calculated?
The Blanton Ripoff
They both are dedicated players...but I think the scout notices a change for better or worse faster than the stats guy.
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance [/QB]I truly believe there are some scout guys that indeed have this sixth sense to see through the numbers.
I also truly believe that most of those that think they do actually do not.
But what I KNOW is many scout guys do not give enough credit to stat guys and VICE VERSA!!!
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance [/QB]I truly believe there are some scout guys that indeed have this sixth sense to see through the numbers.
I also truly believe that most of those that think they do actually do not.
But what I KNOW is many scout guys do not give enough credit to stat guys and VICE VERSA!!!
2019 Mastersball Platinum
5 of the past 6 NFBC champions subscribe to Mastersball
over 1300 projections and 500 player profiles
Standings and Roster Tracker perfect for DC and cutline leagues
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Gordon Gekko II
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The Blanton Ripoff
Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance lance - i missed this the first time around. i can't attest to the NFBC overall winner, but i can attest to that the:
2004 NFFC 100K winner
2007 NFBC 5th place overall winner
2008 NFBC 6th place overall winner
2008 WCOFF Consolation Round winner
watched very few games, and if i watched them it might just be an inning or a series.
u keep thinking you found the holy grail with the MLB package. it's just a way to **** away 3 hours or so. i bet in the one hour of research i did tonight, i found more nuggets of info than you'll find in a week of watching mlbtv.
hey, at least you got to see medlen sweat!
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance lance - i missed this the first time around. i can't attest to the NFBC overall winner, but i can attest to that the:
2004 NFFC 100K winner
2007 NFBC 5th place overall winner
2008 NFBC 6th place overall winner
2008 WCOFF Consolation Round winner
watched very few games, and if i watched them it might just be an inning or a series.
u keep thinking you found the holy grail with the MLB package. it's just a way to **** away 3 hours or so. i bet in the one hour of research i did tonight, i found more nuggets of info than you'll find in a week of watching mlbtv.
hey, at least you got to see medlen sweat!
-
sportsbettingman
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The Blanton Ripoff
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance lance - i missed this the first time around. i can't attest to the NFBC overall winner, but i can attest to that the:
2004 NFFC 100K winner
2007 NFBC 5th place overall winner
2008 NFBC 6th place overall winner
2008 WCOFF Consolation Round winner
watched very few games, and if i watched them it might just be an inning or a series.
u keep thinking you found the holy grail with the MLB package. it's just a way to **** away 3 hours or so. i bet in the one hour of research i did tonight, i found more nuggets of info than you'll find in a week of watching mlbtv.
hey, at least you got to see medlen sweat! [/QUOTE]The 1984 Miss America overall 6th place "winner" (loser) was (WTF cares)
The 2005 Nascar 5th place overall "winner" (loser) was (WTF cares)
The 2007 WCOFF 5th place overall loser was...WTF cares.
You get my point.
I said BOTH the OVERALL and NFBC (not NFFC)WINNERS in the same sentence...thus...refering to the NFBC overall CHAMPIONS. Not the 50 or so also rans over the 5 or 6 years.
I'd guess you didn't have a little one on the way or whatever the excuse du jour is for not watching NFL FOOTBALL when you and your partner won the first NFFC.
I know you prefaced your response...but after that you lost me.
[ May 21, 2009, 10:28 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance lance - i missed this the first time around. i can't attest to the NFBC overall winner, but i can attest to that the:
2004 NFFC 100K winner
2007 NFBC 5th place overall winner
2008 NFBC 6th place overall winner
2008 WCOFF Consolation Round winner
watched very few games, and if i watched them it might just be an inning or a series.
u keep thinking you found the holy grail with the MLB package. it's just a way to **** away 3 hours or so. i bet in the one hour of research i did tonight, i found more nuggets of info than you'll find in a week of watching mlbtv.
hey, at least you got to see medlen sweat!
[/QUOTE]The 1984 Miss America overall 6th place "winner" (loser) was (WTF cares)The 2005 Nascar 5th place overall "winner" (loser) was (WTF cares)
The 2007 WCOFF 5th place overall loser was...WTF cares.
You get my point.
I said BOTH the OVERALL and NFBC (not NFFC)WINNERS in the same sentence...thus...refering to the NFBC overall CHAMPIONS. Not the 50 or so also rans over the 5 or 6 years.
I'd guess you didn't have a little one on the way or whatever the excuse du jour is for not watching NFL FOOTBALL when you and your partner won the first NFFC.
I know you prefaced your response...but after that you lost me.
[ May 21, 2009, 10:28 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
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sportsbettingman
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Originally posted by ToddZ:
[QUOTE]But what I KNOW is many scout guys do not give enough credit to stat guys and VICE VERSA!!! Ditto...this was my point.
There will NEVER be a computer program good enough to predict human performance. The day you think you have one...you'd be a million times better off putting it to use in sports betting vs. fantasy betting.
If the program is only good long term...it's not good enough.
We all know who the stat guru's are here...and will anoint them King when/if it ever happens.
I'll put my money on the "Dork Dad Convention" types and actual BASEBALL fans who WATCH BASEBALL to win the overall each and every year.
[ May 21, 2009, 10:36 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
[QUOTE]But what I KNOW is many scout guys do not give enough credit to stat guys and VICE VERSA!!! Ditto...this was my point.
There will NEVER be a computer program good enough to predict human performance. The day you think you have one...you'd be a million times better off putting it to use in sports betting vs. fantasy betting.
If the program is only good long term...it's not good enough.
We all know who the stat guru's are here...and will anoint them King when/if it ever happens.
I'll put my money on the "Dork Dad Convention" types and actual BASEBALL fans who WATCH BASEBALL to win the overall each and every year.
[ May 21, 2009, 10:36 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
The Blanton Ripoff
Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance lance - i missed this the first time around. i can't attest to the NFBC overall winner, but i can attest to that the:
2004 NFFC 100K winner
2007 NFBC 5th place overall winner
2008 NFBC 6th place overall winner
2008 WCOFF Consolation Round winner
watched very few games, and if i watched them it might just be an inning or a series.
u keep thinking you found the holy grail with the MLB package. it's just a way to **** away 3 hours or so. i bet in the one hour of research i did tonight, i found more nuggets of info than you'll find in a week of watching mlbtv.
hey, at least you got to see medlen sweat! [/QUOTE]The 1984 Miss America overall 6th place "winner" (loser) was (WTF cares)
The 2005 Nascar 5th place overall "winner" (loser) was (WTF cares)
The 2007 WCOFF 5th place overall loser was...WTF cares.
You get my point.
I said BOTH the OVERALL and NFBC (not NFFC)WINNERS in the same sentence...thus...refering to the NFBC overall CHAMPIONS. Not the 50 or so also rans over the 5 or 6 years.
I'd guess you didn't have a little one on the way or whatever the excuse du jour is for not watching NFL FOOTBALL when you and your partner won the first NFFC.
I know you prefaced your response...but after that you lost me. [/QUOTE]First place is a new Cadillac. Second place is a set of steak knives. Third place is you're fired.
quote:Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance lance - i missed this the first time around. i can't attest to the NFBC overall winner, but i can attest to that the:
2004 NFFC 100K winner
2007 NFBC 5th place overall winner
2008 NFBC 6th place overall winner
2008 WCOFF Consolation Round winner
watched very few games, and if i watched them it might just be an inning or a series.
u keep thinking you found the holy grail with the MLB package. it's just a way to **** away 3 hours or so. i bet in the one hour of research i did tonight, i found more nuggets of info than you'll find in a week of watching mlbtv.
hey, at least you got to see medlen sweat!
[/QUOTE]The 1984 Miss America overall 6th place "winner" (loser) was (WTF cares)The 2005 Nascar 5th place overall "winner" (loser) was (WTF cares)
The 2007 WCOFF 5th place overall loser was...WTF cares.
You get my point.
I said BOTH the OVERALL and NFBC (not NFFC)WINNERS in the same sentence...thus...refering to the NFBC overall CHAMPIONS. Not the 50 or so also rans over the 5 or 6 years.
I'd guess you didn't have a little one on the way or whatever the excuse du jour is for not watching NFL FOOTBALL when you and your partner won the first NFFC.
I know you prefaced your response...but after that you lost me.
[/QUOTE]First place is a new Cadillac. Second place is a set of steak knives. Third place is you're fired.Chance favors the prepared mind.
The Blanton Ripoff
FWIW, I have both the MLB Extra Innings package and mlb.tv. I'll watch my local team and the better pitching matchups for the out-of-town games. I usually do it with the sound down, not so much for anything other than there is a syndicated radio show I stream that I enjoy as well.
I try to watch the games from a fan of baseball standpoint and take advantage of the archived games on mlb.tv to do the fantasy scouting when necessary.
I try to watch the games from a fan of baseball standpoint and take advantage of the archived games on mlb.tv to do the fantasy scouting when necessary.
2019 Mastersball Platinum
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over 1300 projections and 500 player profiles
Standings and Roster Tracker perfect for DC and cutline leagues
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5 of the past 6 NFBC champions subscribe to Mastersball
over 1300 projections and 500 player profiles
Standings and Roster Tracker perfect for DC and cutline leagues
Subscribe HERE
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sportsbettingman
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Not to actually insert reality into this conversation...but
Winning your league when the league money goes to the overall is not a big win at all.
Coming in 5th or 6th place in the overall when there is such a wicked steep drop in each placing is not so hot either (as you well know).
If you factored in your expenses (and NOT EVEN YOUR TIME)...you very well could be a loser overall playing in the NFBC (with all of the leagues you've played to date)...even with your respectable success, GG. (14.5 grand ain't your "profit"...that I know.)
I'm sure you are well aware of this already.
2nd and 3rd place overall is not too bad...5th on sucks.
League winnings are just above break even propositions at best when you include expenses. (if you indeed have to travel/take days off/taxes)
~Lance
[ May 21, 2009, 11:14 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
Winning your league when the league money goes to the overall is not a big win at all.
Coming in 5th or 6th place in the overall when there is such a wicked steep drop in each placing is not so hot either (as you well know).
If you factored in your expenses (and NOT EVEN YOUR TIME)...you very well could be a loser overall playing in the NFBC (with all of the leagues you've played to date)...even with your respectable success, GG. (14.5 grand ain't your "profit"...that I know.)
I'm sure you are well aware of this already.
2nd and 3rd place overall is not too bad...5th on sucks.
League winnings are just above break even propositions at best when you include expenses. (if you indeed have to travel/take days off/taxes)
~Lance
[ May 21, 2009, 11:14 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
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King of Queens
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The Blanton Ripoff
Originally posted by bjoak:
First place is a new Cadillac. Second place is a set of steak knives. Third place is you're fired. Another
Blanton
Crapfest*
*As LUCK would have it, he got the win
[ May 21, 2009, 10:48 PM: Message edited by: King of Queens ]
First place is a new Cadillac. Second place is a set of steak knives. Third place is you're fired. Another
Blanton
Crapfest*
*As LUCK would have it, he got the win
[ May 21, 2009, 10:48 PM: Message edited by: King of Queens ]
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sportsbettingman
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Originally posted by ToddZ:
FWIW, I have both the MLB Extra Innings package and mlb.tv. I'll watch my local team and the better pitching matchups for the out-of-town games. I usually do it with the sound down, not so much for anything other than there is a syndicated radio show I stream that I enjoy as well.
I try to watch the games from a fan of baseball standpoint and take advantage of the archived games on mlb.tv to do the fantasy scouting when necessary. I love ya Todd. I love your posts too! You well may win our league.
It's just the never ending classic battle of "jocks (dumbasses)and nerds (computer geeks).
It goes on in High School...College...and keeps on going into old age I guess. I'm part jock and part nerd...so I just listen to the great debates.
Not personal.
FWIW, I have both the MLB Extra Innings package and mlb.tv. I'll watch my local team and the better pitching matchups for the out-of-town games. I usually do it with the sound down, not so much for anything other than there is a syndicated radio show I stream that I enjoy as well.
I try to watch the games from a fan of baseball standpoint and take advantage of the archived games on mlb.tv to do the fantasy scouting when necessary. I love ya Todd. I love your posts too! You well may win our league.
It's just the never ending classic battle of "jocks (dumbasses)and nerds (computer geeks).
It goes on in High School...College...and keeps on going into old age I guess. I'm part jock and part nerd...so I just listen to the great debates.
Not personal.
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
The Blanton Ripoff
ON THE AVERAGE, 10-11% of fly balls go for homers. ON THE AVERAGE. The number of HRs is number of fly balls given up times percentage that go for homers.Repeat the analysis for Roger Clemens career, please.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
The Blanton Ripoff
Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
I love ya Todd. I love your posts too! You well may win our league.
4 teams with over 100 points and a 5th within spitting distance.
I sure picked the wrong season and league not to frig up my draft :rolleyes:
[ May 21, 2009, 10:56 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]
I love ya Todd. I love your posts too! You well may win our league.
4 teams with over 100 points and a 5th within spitting distance.
I sure picked the wrong season and league not to frig up my draft :rolleyes:
[ May 21, 2009, 10:56 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]
2019 Mastersball Platinum
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Standings and Roster Tracker perfect for DC and cutline leagues
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5 of the past 6 NFBC champions subscribe to Mastersball
over 1300 projections and 500 player profiles
Standings and Roster Tracker perfect for DC and cutline leagues
Subscribe HERE
The Blanton Ripoff
Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance No offense lance, but this isn't fantasy football.
While someone is watching a 3 hr game tonight, I'll accomplish A LOT more researching some players that have caught my eye and reading daily baseball info and news. Couldn't agree more with gekko when he replied to this.
ALSO, when Greg or Tom has interviewed the overall champ, do you ever here them say "what really helped me win the 100k was watching baseball every night and evaluating and scouting players every night"??
I'd BET the farm the overall champ is the overall champ because of:
1) good draft and FAAB pickups based upon a combination of skill AND luck (i.e. Cliff Lee ,etc) and his team stayed relatively healthy. it's that simple.
Gekko, a top 10 finisher (twice?), says he doesn't watch much baseball on tv at all. I don't care if he finished 1st, 5th, or 9th twice. The point is I'm sure he was only 1-2 players missed here or there or 1 or 2 injuries here or there that cost him the title. I HIGHLY DOUBT he missed the 100k because he did NOT watch enough baseball on tv.
My point is... in the NFBC, scouting the players with your own eyes won't make a difference whether you win or lose. This isn't fantasy football.
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance No offense lance, but this isn't fantasy football.
While someone is watching a 3 hr game tonight, I'll accomplish A LOT more researching some players that have caught my eye and reading daily baseball info and news. Couldn't agree more with gekko when he replied to this.
ALSO, when Greg or Tom has interviewed the overall champ, do you ever here them say "what really helped me win the 100k was watching baseball every night and evaluating and scouting players every night"??
I'd BET the farm the overall champ is the overall champ because of:
1) good draft and FAAB pickups based upon a combination of skill AND luck (i.e. Cliff Lee ,etc) and his team stayed relatively healthy. it's that simple.
Gekko, a top 10 finisher (twice?), says he doesn't watch much baseball on tv at all. I don't care if he finished 1st, 5th, or 9th twice. The point is I'm sure he was only 1-2 players missed here or there or 1 or 2 injuries here or there that cost him the title. I HIGHLY DOUBT he missed the 100k because he did NOT watch enough baseball on tv.
My point is... in the NFBC, scouting the players with your own eyes won't make a difference whether you win or lose. This isn't fantasy football.
Richard Kulaski
Fairview, TN
Fairview, TN
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sportsbettingman
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The Blanton Ripoff
Originally posted by rkulaski:
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance No offense lance, but this isn't fantasy football.
While someone is watching a 3 hr game tonight, I'll accomplish A LOT more researching some players that have caught my eye and reading daily baseball info and news. Couldn't agree more with gekko when he replied to this.
ALSO, when Greg or Tom has interviewed the overall champ, do you ever here them say "what really helped me win the 100k was watching baseball every night and evaluating and scouting players every night"??
I'd BET the farm the overall champ is the overall champ because of:
1) good draft and FAAB pickups based upon a combination of skill AND luck (i.e. Cliff Lee ,etc) and his team stayed relatively healthy. it's that simple.
Gekko, a top 10 finisher (twice?), says he doesn't watch much baseball on tv at all. I don't care if he finished 1st, 5th, or 9th twice. The point is I'm sure he was only 1-2 players missed here or there or 1 or 2 injuries here or there that cost him the title. I HIGHLY DOUBT he missed the 100k because he did NOT watch enough baseball on tv.
My point is... in the NFBC, scouting the players with your own eyes won't make a difference whether you win or lose. This isn't fantasy football. [/QUOTE]That's all fine and dandy.
It would suck balls if the overall winner doesn't even watch the sport.
So far, to the best of my knowledge...fans of baseball (and that includes WATCHING)...have been the CHAMPIONS.
I sure hope that trend continues.
~Lance
[ May 22, 2009, 01:00 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:
I'd also bet the farm that every NFBC overall WINNER to date actually WATCHES his fair share of MLB baseball along with tracking the stats.
~Lance No offense lance, but this isn't fantasy football.
While someone is watching a 3 hr game tonight, I'll accomplish A LOT more researching some players that have caught my eye and reading daily baseball info and news. Couldn't agree more with gekko when he replied to this.
ALSO, when Greg or Tom has interviewed the overall champ, do you ever here them say "what really helped me win the 100k was watching baseball every night and evaluating and scouting players every night"??
I'd BET the farm the overall champ is the overall champ because of:
1) good draft and FAAB pickups based upon a combination of skill AND luck (i.e. Cliff Lee ,etc) and his team stayed relatively healthy. it's that simple.
Gekko, a top 10 finisher (twice?), says he doesn't watch much baseball on tv at all. I don't care if he finished 1st, 5th, or 9th twice. The point is I'm sure he was only 1-2 players missed here or there or 1 or 2 injuries here or there that cost him the title. I HIGHLY DOUBT he missed the 100k because he did NOT watch enough baseball on tv.
My point is... in the NFBC, scouting the players with your own eyes won't make a difference whether you win or lose. This isn't fantasy football. [/QUOTE]That's all fine and dandy.
It would suck balls if the overall winner doesn't even watch the sport.
So far, to the best of my knowledge...fans of baseball (and that includes WATCHING)...have been the CHAMPIONS.
I sure hope that trend continues.
~Lance
[ May 22, 2009, 01:00 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
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sportsbettingman
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The same goes for all opponents near him...
"Gekko, a top 10 finisher (twice?), says he doesn't watch much baseball on tv at all. I don't care if he finished 1st, 5th, or 9th twice. The point is I'm sure he was only 1-2 players missed here or there or 1 or 2 injuries here or there that cost him the title. I HIGHLY DOUBT he missed the 100k because he did NOT watch enough baseball on tv."
He could easily have finished outside the top 10 had this exact scenario happened to those below him.
He's a grinder.
Grinders chip away at small computer calculated odds.
Grinders don't win championships...they just grind. ...and they try to get YOU to grind...so they can out-grind you!
(If you keep listening to Gekko (on the right))
(You'll never kick Teddy KGB's ass!)
[ May 22, 2009, 01:24 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"Gekko, a top 10 finisher (twice?), says he doesn't watch much baseball on tv at all. I don't care if he finished 1st, 5th, or 9th twice. The point is I'm sure he was only 1-2 players missed here or there or 1 or 2 injuries here or there that cost him the title. I HIGHLY DOUBT he missed the 100k because he did NOT watch enough baseball on tv."
He could easily have finished outside the top 10 had this exact scenario happened to those below him.
He's a grinder.
Grinders chip away at small computer calculated odds.
Grinders don't win championships...they just grind. ...and they try to get YOU to grind...so they can out-grind you!
(If you keep listening to Gekko (on the right))
(You'll never kick Teddy KGB's ass!)
[ May 22, 2009, 01:24 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein