Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

User avatar
Greg Ambrosius
Posts: 41207
Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2004 6:00 pm
Contact:

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Tue May 19, 2009 10:43 am

I have to admit, I really loved our 20 Sleeper Picks for 2009 that were submitted by our NFBC members. We published them in our second issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine and I felt good about the picks we put in print.



But our sleepers are really sleeping right now. A few have busted out and made for good picks, but not everyone is paying off. Take a look at our list an feel free to grade our picks:



1. Fausto Carmona

2. Chad Tracy

3. Carlos Villanueva

4. Felix Pie

5. Kendry Morales

6. Gaby Sanchez

7. Ryan Spilborghs

8. Sean Gallagher

9. John Maine

10. Alexi Casilla

11. Adam Jones

12. Fred Lewis

13. Scott Downs

14. Neftali Perez

15. Randy Johnson

16. Jason Motte

17. Juan Rivera

18. Nate Schierholtz

19. Kevin Slowey

20. Eric Chavez
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius

Crazy Like a Fox
Posts: 1077
Joined: Tue Nov 21, 2006 6:00 pm
Contact:

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Crazy Like a Fox » Tue May 19, 2009 11:06 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

I have to admit, I really loved our 20 Sleeper Picks for 2009 that were submitted by our NFBC members. We published them in our second issue of Fantasy Sports Magazine and I felt good about the picks we put in print.



But our sleepers are really sleeping right now. A few have busted out and made for good picks, but not everyone is paying off. Take a look at our list an feel free to grade our picks:



1. Fausto Carmona (ryan carey)

2. Chad Tracy (kj duke)

3. Carlos Villanueva (todd zola)

4. Felix Pie (wayne edwards)

5. Kendry Morales (crazy's)

6. Gaby Sanchez (erik sudigala)

7. Ryan Spilborghs (THE perry van hook)

8. Sean Gallagher (gekko)

9. John Maine (kessenich)

10. Alexi Casilla (greg marta)

**11. Adam Jones (greg ambrosius)

12. Fred Lewis (mike rosenblum)

13. Scott Downs (lindy hinkelman)

14. Neftali Perez (joe anthony)

15. Randy Johnson (dan kenyon)

16. Jason Motte (joe anthony)

17. Juan Rivera (gregg janoff)

18. Nate Schierholtz (emory upchurch)

19. Kevin Slowey (emilio n. cutaneo

20. Eric Chavez (brett goldblatt) Adam Jones (greg's pick) is far and away the most dominant of the bunch so far.



Next is Scott Downs.



Then comes Kendry Morales (my pick).



Spilborghs has done nicely as he's on pace for 14 homers, 78 rbi's and 27 steals although he isn't exactly tearing it up.



The rest look like crap.



Not sure how RJ, Maine and Slowey made the list of longshots but they sputtered as well.



Greg, maybe next year we can make a list of all the underrated players as opposed to sleepers. It always intrigues me how much hype is given to some less proven players and how little of it is given to more proven commodities.



Thanks for getting me on there Greg. It's pretty fun seeing my name in a national publication.
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."

Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)

Ryan C
Posts: 836
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:00 pm
Contact:

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Ryan C » Tue May 19, 2009 12:17 pm

Funny- I just reread this the other day after a freind of mine mentioned he had seen it this preseason. He wasted no time in pointing out that my pick, Carmona, has been crap.



Carmona is still being plagued by a lack of control and now doesn't have the knee to blame it on. At times he'll flash his 2007 form - like his last start when he looked great for 5 innings - then the wheels fall off.



I still think he has an outside shot to get the 14-15 wins predicted-(more likely 10-12) - but a Sub 4 era and sub 1.40 Whip looks unlikely.



While I'll give Greg props on Adam Jones - no one in the NFBC was really sleeping on him - still he's the best of this bunch. I thought I could get him with an agressive pick in the 12th rd - wasn't even close as he went two rds earlier - which then led to a swing and a miss on Cameron Maybin- yikes.



The next question is - how many of us drafted our guy in the Main. I got Carmona in one Sat - but he went much earlier than I was looking for in the Main.



Crazy- I did however draft Kendry Morales and I'm hoping last night is the beginning of a new trend.



[ May 19, 2009, 06:47 PM: Message edited by: Ryan Carey ]
Mastersball

“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.” - Albert Einstein

Crazy Like a Fox
Posts: 1077
Joined: Tue Nov 21, 2006 6:00 pm
Contact:

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Crazy Like a Fox » Tue May 19, 2009 12:51 pm

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Funny- I just reread this the other day after a freind of mine mentioned he had seen it this preseason. He wasted no time in pointing out that my pick, Carmona, has been crap.



Carmona is still being plagued by a lack of control and now doesn't have the knee to blame it on. At times he'll flash his 2007 form - like his last start when he looked great for 5 innings - then the wheels fall off.



I still think he has an outside shot to get the 14-15 wins predicted-(more likely 10-12) - but a Sub 4 era and sub 1.40 Whip looks unlikely.



While I'll give Greg props on Adam Jones - no one in the NFBC was really sleeping on him - still he's the best of this bunch.



The next question is - how many of us drafted our guy in the Main. I got Carmona in one Sat - but he went much earlier than I was looking for in the Main.



Crazy- I did however draft Kendry Morales and I'm hoping last night is the beginning of a new trend. I agree with you about Jones. The list was mostly 20+ round ADP, then there were some 10th-12th rounders on there that seemed out of place. I thought if Adam Jones or John Maine could be on there then why not Shin-Shoo?



Morales is on pace for (doughie loves this) .289-36-118-89 runs with 0 stolen bases and 9 CS.



Not bad for a late round pick.



For all these "sleepers" that we really like, if we're honest with ourselves maybe 1/3 actually breakout.



Although I'm starting to think that the word "sleeper" should become extinct at some point. In this day and age, there are no sleepers, only underrated, rated "correctly", and overrated players. Even those words I used are arguable as my underrated guy might be your overrated guy, and even the player's next season doesn't truly decide who is right. With that being said, let's stop using "sleeper".



Maybe "sleeper" should be replaced by "longshot". Seriously, that's what they are. Even my "sleeper" pick of Morales is not really a sleeper. Everybody knows about him. Nobody knows for sure if he's going to breakout (although I like to think I have a special crystal ball).



Maybe Greg can next year in the mag have the top 20 most underrated players based on ADP and can match it with the top 20 overrated players per ADP. Now THAT would be an interesting read.
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."

Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)

Ryan C
Posts: 836
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:00 pm
Contact:

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Ryan C » Tue May 19, 2009 1:19 pm

I don't have a problem with the term sleeper-but in THIS competition are there really ANY true sleepers???



The competition here forces you to know the player pool like no other I've played in.



The term will live on simply because everyone is used to it-but likely we will have to continue to qualify what we call sleepers.



It is interesting to note - that Adam Jones qualified as the one player on this list that you HAD to have an aggressive plan to get- the rest were guys you settled for or took a chance on late.



In reality - the real sleepers are the players that none of us genius' drafted. Marco Scutaro come on down!!!



Longshots might work-but it's such a horse race term.
Mastersball

“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.” - Albert Einstein

baggler
Posts: 103
Joined: Mon Jan 16, 2006 6:00 pm
Contact:

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by baggler » Tue May 19, 2009 2:35 pm

I think the term to best describe everyone's sleepers is undervalued players. And we can go the other way and say overvalued.



Some of those players on the list are realy not sleepers imo but I bet if you were to ask each person if their pick is a player that they felt was being undervalued prior to the draft.They would all say yes.



My favoriter undervalued pick and I have him on every team is Aaron Hill. He killed many of my teams last year and I felt he was the biggest undervalued player going into the draft.
"Fortis fortuna adiuvat"- "Fortune favors the brave"

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Tue May 19, 2009 2:58 pm

Sleepers and on pace....you guys are killing me.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

rkulaski
Posts: 1270
Joined: Sat Jan 27, 2007 6:00 pm
Contact:

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by rkulaski » Tue May 19, 2009 3:43 pm

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

I don't have a problem with the term sleeper-but in THIS competition are there really ANY true sleepers???



The competition here forces you to know the player pool like no other I've played in.



The term will live on simply because everyone is used to it-but likely we will have to continue to qualify what we call sleepers.



It is interesting to note - that Adam Jones qualified as the one player on this list that you HAD to have an aggressive plan to get- the rest were guys you settled for or took a chance on late.



In reality - the real sleepers are the players that none of us genius' drafted. Marco Scutaro come on down!!!



Longshots might work-but it's such a horse race term. Joel Piniero- complete game shutout tonight, 5 wins, ERA in the mid-3s. Just when you think he'd cooled off after a hot April with some poor May starts, he throws the gem tonight.
Richard Kulaski
Fairview, TN

Crazy Like a Fox
Posts: 1077
Joined: Tue Nov 21, 2006 6:00 pm
Contact:

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Crazy Like a Fox » Tue May 19, 2009 7:02 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Sleepers and on pace....you guys are killing me. I also liked Morales because he said in spring training he was in the best shape of his life. :D ;)
"Hit a home run - put your head down, drop the bat, run around the bases, because the name on the front is more - a lot more important than the name on the back."

Ryne Sandberg (my favorite player of all-time)

eddiejag
Posts: 1593
Joined: Wed Mar 10, 2004 6:00 pm
Contact:

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by eddiejag » Wed May 20, 2009 12:43 am

Asdrubal Cabrera was my sleeper of the year as i landed him in 6 of my 9 leagues.One of the leagues is an 11 team keeper American auction where i waited on him and got him late for 3 buck's.He went 11 buck's in the Vegas auction .I had a feeling he could move up in the batting order which he did and thought he could steal 20 which he is on pace for.I was hoping for anything over 285 bavg and that's where he has been awesome but still a long way to go.I was also all over Carmona and still think he can turn it around so im not giving up on him and just picked him up in my 12 man league this week.

I also think a lot of people were on Adam Jones and was only able to get him in one league but that league was the ultimate.I actually took him with the 3rd pick in the 10th round which is pretty high but in that league i didnt think he would make it back.
EDWARD J GILLIS

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 20, 2009 3:24 am

You guys all know my opinion on the word, "sleeper". It has become an irrelevant term. The meaning of the word has disappeared, while the word, itself, remains. If the word were human it would have already died by fire, drowning, being shot, electrocuted, and worse of all, old age.

Value plays or undervalued, better describes "sleepers". "Sleepers doesen't even have to be retired. The new meaning for the word, sleeper, would be a value play that didn't work out, such as Fausto Carmona this year. It would define someone that had value but is not utilizing that value, or is sleeping through the year.

I'm dreaming, I know. Men, as a group, are adverse to change. And when those men are fantasy baseball players the chance of change are somewhere between slim and none.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

User avatar
Quahogs
Posts: 2400
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Quahogs » Wed May 20, 2009 3:29 am





Must be Doughboy's lecture on 21st Century Terminology and its Misuse.

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 20, 2009 3:56 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:





Must be Doughboy's lecture on 21st Century Terminology and its Misuse. I'm a lot cheaper than Ambien!



You ought to hear my rant on hip hop and rap. :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 20, 2009 4:04 am

Thanks Q, I forwarded that picture to my son-in-law. He's a Marine.

The note underneath the picture, in the e-mail reads,

"A typical day in the life of a Marine."





The response should be brutal. :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

User avatar
Edwards Kings
Posts: 5917
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 6:00 pm
Location: Duluth, Georgia

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Edwards Kings » Wed May 20, 2009 4:13 am

I, regrettably, have to claim Pie. Not my brightest moment.



Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer

User avatar
Quahogs
Posts: 2400
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Quahogs » Wed May 20, 2009 4:20 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Thanks Q, I forwarded that picture to my son-in-law. He's a Marine.

The note underneath the picture, in the e-mail reads,

"A typical day in the life of a Marine."





The response should be brutal. :D :D You just lost grand kid duty Dough. Unless that's what your were striving for !

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 20, 2009 4:20 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I, regrettably, have to claim Pie. Not my brightest moment.



You weren't alone, Wayne. Other on this Board were predicting 20-20 from him. While others were crowing about picking him up. We won't name names. ;) :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 20, 2009 4:23 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Thanks Q, I forwarded that picture to my son-in-law. He's a Marine.

The note underneath the picture, in the e-mail reads,

"A typical day in the life of a Marine."





The response should be brutal. :D :D You just lost grand kid duty Dough. Unless that's what your were striving for !
[/QUOTE]Nah :D



He'll probably respond with a viagra commercial, or hair loss product, or Homer Simpson picture...whatever it is, it'll leave a mark!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Scott Boras
Posts: 422
Joined: Thu Feb 12, 2009 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Scott Boras » Wed May 20, 2009 5:39 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:





Must be Doughboy's lecture on 21st Century Terminology and its Misuse. I'm a lot cheaper than Ambien!



You ought to hear my rant on hip hop and rap. :D
[/QUOTE]Please PM me your rant. Would love to read it.

Ryan C
Posts: 836
Joined: Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:00 pm
Contact:

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Ryan C » Wed May 20, 2009 5:50 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I, regrettably, have to claim Pie. Not my brightest moment.



You weren't alone, Wayne. Other on this Board were predicting 20-20 from him. While others were crowing about picking him up. We won't name names. ;) :D
[/QUOTE]Yeah - that would be me on the 20/20 front :eek: :confused: :( - I was hoping - really thought he'd respond to the new situation. To make matters worse I cut Mat Gamel in Week 1 of the Magazine league to pick him up :eek: Cut bait on him for Reimold in the Main two FAAB periods ago. Funny how as soon as Reimold got called up - he suddenly started to show a better approach. :mad:
Mastersball

“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.” - Albert Einstein

Dub
Posts: 775
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2008 6:00 pm
Contact:

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Dub » Wed May 20, 2009 5:50 am

so far Aaron Hill was a great undervalue play this year. (probably top 5)



I drafted Scutero But didn't start playing him until he cooled off. :mad:
"I don't remmeber what I don't remember.”- Jerry Garcia

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 20, 2009 6:12 am

Originally posted by Scott Boras:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by Quahogs:





Must be Doughboy's lecture on 21st Century Terminology and its Misuse. I'm a lot cheaper than Ambien!



You ought to hear my rant on hip hop and rap. :D
[/QUOTE]Please PM me your rant. Would love to read it.
[/QUOTE]Scott, I'll post it someday when some young whippersnapper pissses me off :D
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

User avatar
Quahogs
Posts: 2400
Joined: Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by Quahogs » Wed May 20, 2009 6:16 am

Who you kidding dough - the only rap you know is a line drive single and hip-hop is some kind of rehab for Arod, Gordon, Delgado etc...

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 20, 2009 6:42 am

Originally posted by Dub:

so far Aaron Hill was a great undervalue play this year. (probably top 5)



I drafted Scutero But didn't start playing him until he cooled off. :mad: Nick Johnson too.

Manny Acta is doing what other managers should be doing. I believe most managers like the contact-speed guy in the 2nd spot in their lineup. Rubbish! Most speedy leadoff hitters are stealing on their own anymore, the hit and run left, for the most part, with Ted Sizemore. Baseball has evolved while some Managers haven't.

Give me the OBP guy. Cust hitting 2nd in Oakland, Pence hitting 2nd in Houston, Hermida in Florida, Helton in Colorado. Just makes sense to get them up more in a game and to put them in front of the 3-4 hitters.





Too many rants for one day...Note to self- Find your quaaludes!



[ May 20, 2009, 12:52 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

DOUGHBOYS
Posts: 13091
Joined: Sat Feb 05, 2005 6:00 pm

Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Wed May 20, 2009 6:52 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Who you kidding dough - the only rap you know is a line drive single and hip-hop is some kind of rehab for Arod, Gordon, Delgado etc... :D



Ahh, but I also have daughters who like rap and debating their ancient dad.

One thing I do like telling them, is that anybody who can tap a foot and spit in that order over and over again, can make a rap "song".
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!

Post Reply