Top 20 Sleeper Picks For 2009

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Wed May 20, 2009 7:00 am

Do think A Hill and N Johnson were great value plays this year Morales as well who I did get. Would love to nominate another player to this category. I will call him mini MVP J Bartlet up until this point he ranks in top 5 at SS. Just an opinion

Marty

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed May 20, 2009 11:36 am

Bartlett has been amazing and i think any sleeper or value pick after the 15th round sound's about right.Bartlett was going 17th to 21st round,Morales i picked up in round 18 in a slow draft so he fit's the bill and Aaron Hill was going after the 17th round in most leagues all value pick's.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu May 21, 2009 4:06 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

While I'll give Greg props on Adam Jones - no one in the NFBC was really sleeping on him - still he's the best of this bunch. I thought I could get him with an agressive pick in the 12th rd - wasn't even close as he went two rds earlier - which then led to a swing and a miss on Cameron Maybin- yikes.

I wasn't looking for any props on Jones, but he most definitely was an interesting pick in the NFBC. As you folks know, we all submitted these sleeper picks in mid January for a magazine that went to press the first week of February. The NFBC draft was March 21st.

In our first ADP list from MockDraftCentral.com in late January, Jones had an ADP of 210. In the second ADP from MDC, he had moved up to 198. In the third release, his ADP was 183. By early April, his ADP in the 50 Online Championships was 142.

So he went from a 14th-15th round pick to a 9th-10th round pick in the NFBC in two short months. I don't think I had that influence.

But he definitely was an upside pick who folks read about his intense off-season of training, the extra muscle and then saw him in spring and liked him even more. He may not have been a sleeper by March, but he was definitely an upside pick all off-season long.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu May 21, 2009 4:14 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

I don't have a problem with the term sleeper-but in THIS competition are there really ANY true sleepers???

The competition here forces you to know the player pool like no other I've played in.

The term will live on simply because everyone is used to it-but likely we will have to continue to qualify what we call sleepers.

It is interesting to note - that Adam Jones qualified as the one player on this list that you HAD to have an aggressive plan to get- the rest were guys you settled for or took a chance on late.

In reality - the real sleepers are the players that none of us genius' drafted. Marco Scutaro come on down!!!

Longshots might work-but it's such a horse race term. I don't think anyone needs to concentrate on the term "sleeper" for this exercise. As I just posted on the NFFC boards, what we're looking for are upside picks. In my mind, a fifth round pick who has first round value is a sleeper. A 10th round pick who has fifth round value is a sleeper. A 15th round pick who has 8th round value is a sleeper pick. We're looking for upside picks, not somebody that NOBODY has heard of.

In our published list, Jones and Downs would probabaly be the best examples. The others were all solid choices, but they haven't panned out as expected right now. We'll see if by season's end they wake up and surprise.

For our unpublished list I have to give props to Todd Zola. As early as our NFBC mock drafts at the XFL in November, Todd was all over Aaron Hill, stating that he would come back from the concussion and be an upside pick. Every draft I was in with him he was picking Hill. I took Hill in our Magazine 2 League and I'm solidly in first place. So of course, for his submission of sleepers for the magazine, Todd wrote a beautiful piece on Carlos Villanueva.

I agreed with that choice as well, but boy oh boy, Todd would have looked a lot better with an essay on Aaron Hill!!

I still know you pegged him correctly Todd, so no worries. I've got your back!!

And yes, Villanueva had plenty of chances to fulfill what you wrote while Hoffman was out, but he just didn't get the job done. But he's still in a good spot.

[ May 21, 2009, 10:16 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]