LUCK and fantasy baseball...

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:36 am

When the overall 4th vs. 5th place comes down to a "add-on game" like it did when Childs leap frogged DOUGHBOYS...I'd call that luck.

When the overall title is won in the final week...that takes a bit of good fortune to have your team play well that final week.

I know skill rules...but luck factors into who wins the overall title (amongst the top 3 or so teams) some seasons. Other seasons there may be a dominant team that cruises to the title.

As far as the grinders that finish overall top 5 ($3000) or 6 ($1500)...there isn't much money in it for all those grinding hours.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:41 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

Imagine all the other blokes who have been burnt throughout the years in all the different formats out there."...blokes..."? Did you move way east to take advantage of the fantasy football (a.k.a soccer) market in Europe?

[ July 01, 2009, 12:41 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:48 am

From my narcisistic point of view, I have been trying for six years to figure out what part of this contest is luck, where does the luck end, and which part is skill.

What I KNOW is there are owners who consistently do better than others. I generally consider myself smart enough to come in out of the rain, but I cannot figure the edge or ability others who consistently do better than me have that I do not, so I guess I am going to have to keep looking for the luck-card...kind of like going all-in praying for the miracle card.

The only thing I can add to the football discussion is what ever bad luck or good luck you have, it is magnified because you have fewer players on a team to absorb or hinder the results.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:52 am

I've not complained of bad luck re: injuries (#1 pick Reyes out more games than in to date, or 7th pick Doumit doing the same, or losing 12th pick Weeks for the season), as I understand injuries tend to even out over a 26 week fight.

...but when Smoltz is 3 outs away from a W and it starts raining...f-that.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:53 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

As far as the grinders that finish overall top 5 ($3000) or 6 ($1500)...there isn't much money in it for all those grinding hours. how much money has been in it for you (or the non-grinders)?

again, i like how you classify me as a grinder. i'm trying like hell to win the main event, not grind. i KNOW it's just a matter of TIME until it happens.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:13 am

I spoke of this years ago. Just goes to show that Gekko can carry a messege. Greg's LOVE!

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:40 am

From my view of 25 years of running leagues....

Luck is 20% in baseball. The skill in managing the long season from Week 1 until conclusion far outweighs anything Lance can dream up on a day-to-day basis. And Lance, there is something like what happened to Smoltz just about everyday of the season, and that stuff evens out over 26 weeks.

And even it WAS a huge factor, how did Smoltz leaving early help the TOP TEAMS??

The only thing unlucky IMO in baseball is getting 6-7+ injuries all at once. A few are easy to over come.

For FB, I'll say there is twice as much luck and it's 40%. having won B2B leagues, I know I'm doing a few things that 98% are not in the "GG pre draft prep mode" of putting the time in. Injuries play a bigger factor due to lower roster size and fewer weeks, but pre-draft injury risk advoidance is critical there and hardly anyone applies it. (I took on too much injury risk in baseball main this year) Which is fine with me, because I'd rather block in FB with my faab $$ in FB. It helps overcome schedule flaws...

It's only 20/40 folks. Proven in-season management by the top players in both games clearly proves it over all these years.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:55 am

Originally posted by JohnZ:

For FB, I'll say there is twice as much luck and it's 40%. that's a 100% increase over baseball

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:04 am

Mr. Haney, who's in the same league as I am, has had three outstanding years (1st overall, 4th overall, and is currently in 6th overall.) He is an outstanding player in my mind.

He has also had two midpack finishes and a poor finish (285 last year). That tells me it's not all about grinding and skill.

Artie Rastelli has won this event and finished 89th...since then he's been average to poor...which seasons were lucky or unlucky?

Brian Oldenski has won this event and finished 69th...followed by two mediocre mid-pack finishes.

David DiDonato has won this event, and has shown solid steady skill, never finishing in the triple digits, but is currently 236 (any bad luck so far?).

Robert Jurney, last years winner has a win and a 41st place finish, but also has an average (160), a near bottom (344) and is currently sitting in 254th.

DiDonato's current slow start seems like the outlier to his solid success AND WINNING the overall.

All of the other overall winners have had their poo-poo finishes over the years...and a game of 80% skill would not allow that to happen IMO.

[ July 01, 2009, 02:08 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:22 am

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko II:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

For FB, I'll say there is twice as much luck and it's 40%. that's a 100% increase over baseball

[/QUOTE]Yep..that's what I was thinking... Is anyone debating that FB is more luck?

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:35 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Mr. Haney, who's in the same league as I am, has had three outstanding years (1st overall, 4th overall, and is currently in 6th overall.) He is an outstanding player in my mind.

He has also had two midpack finishes and a poor finish (285 last year). That tells me it's not all about grinding and skill.

Artie Rastelli has won this event and finished 89th...since then he's been average to poor...which seasons were lucky or unlucky?

Brian Oldenski has won this event and finished 69th...followed by two mediocre mid-pack finishes.

David DiDonato has won this event, and has shown solid steady skill, never finishing in the triple digits, but is currently 236 (any bad luck so far?).

Robert Jurney, last years winner has a win and a 41st place finish, but also has an average (160), a near bottom (344) and is currently sitting in 254th.

DiDonato's current slow start seems like the outlier to his solid success AND WINNING the overall.

All of the other overall winners have had their poo-poo finishes over the years...and a game of 80% skill would not allow that to happen IMO. The above is meaningless Lance. On average, top players have a stinker every 5-6 teams they play. Some are a few more, some a few less. That's just the nature of the beast.

Finishing #300 doesn't mean you suck. It means you're the 300th best player in the world.

It takes lots of breaks to win, not luck. The breaks are created by the skill playing the game.

You create your own good/bad luck by the moves you make. I went against my normal grain and took too many injury prone players this year. Then add the players that got hurt that never did before....

None of that is luck based, although you would claim it is. Injuries happen to all. It's part of the equation.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 11:48 am

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

I spoke of this years ago. Just goes to show that Gekko can carry a messege. Greg's LOVE!

The only love I have (besides my kids) has a birthday tomorrow and if I don't do something special I'll be in bigger doo-doo than I've ever been before. You're only lucky in love, folks, not sports.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 11:54 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Mr. Haney, who's in the same league as I am, has had three outstanding years (1st overall, 4th overall, and is currently in 6th overall.) He is an outstanding player in my mind.

He has also had two midpack finishes and a poor finish (285 last year). That tells me it's not all about grinding and skill.

Artie Rastelli has won this event and finished 89th...since then he's been average to poor...which seasons were lucky or unlucky?

Brian Oldenski has won this event and finished 69th...followed by two mediocre mid-pack finishes.

David DiDonato has won this event, and has shown solid steady skill, never finishing in the triple digits, but is currently 236 (any bad luck so far?).

Robert Jurney, last years winner has a win and a 41st place finish, but also has an average (160), a near bottom (344) and is currently sitting in 254th.

DiDonato's current slow start seems like the outlier to his solid success AND WINNING the overall.

All of the other overall winners have had their poo-poo finishes over the years...and a game of 80% skill would not allow that to happen IMO. Lance, you make it sound like this is something unique to fantasy sports, not just sports in general. MLB teams win a division one year and fall under .500 the next all the time. The Packers go 13-3 one year and 6-10 the next. The Cardinals can't make the playoffs for six decades and then reach the Super Bowl last year. The Patriots go 18-0, lose in the Super Bowl and then lose their MVP quarterback in Week 1 and miss the playoffs. Teams, coaches, players all have good and bad years in SPORTS.

Why should fantasy sports be any different? You draft players who have injuries or bad years or good years and you're rewarded accordingly. Hell, we all know that you can excel in one NFBC format and have a stinker team in another format. It happens to all of us many, many times per year. But just because it happens doesn't mean this game is 70 percent luck. And while everyone pays the same price to enter this contest, I don't agree with Dan that we have 390 LIKE MINDS. In fact, far from it.

This is always a fun discussion and there's no proven answer. I just know I'll always stand firmly on the side of Skill over Luck and congratulate every winner who skillfully managed the minefield that year.

[ July 01, 2009, 05:55 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 12:53 pm

How many overall winners had a laundry list of injuries to their top players they had to overcome with all of their skill?

We can use all of our ability to create and manage our teams...but once lineups are locked...it's 100% out of our control.

I'm not saying it's 70%, but it's more than 20%, and it's much less than football.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 1:18 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

How many overall winners had a laundry list of injuries to their top players they had to overcome with all of their skill?

We can use all of our ability to create and manage our teams...but once lineups are locked...it's 100% out of our control.

I'm not saying it's 70%, but it's more than 20%, and it's much less than football. Correct, but as we all know even setting the right starting lineup takes some skill.

There's definitely more skill in baseball than football. I think we all agree on that. One injury in football to your top guy can be too much to overcome as we all know. Thankfully in baseball you have 30 roster spots and 23 starters. More room for injuries but also more room for error.

We play fantasy football because it makes the NFL season more enjoyable and it gives us more skin in the game. We play fantasy baseball because winter is too damn long and somehow we still feel like we know more about the sport than anyone else.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 1:20 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

How many overall winners had a laundry list of injuries to their top players they had to overcome with all of their skill?

We can use all of our ability to create and manage our teams...but once lineups are locked...it's 100% out of our control.

I'm not saying it's 70%, but it's more than 20%, and it's much less than football. You keep quantifying it with OVERALL winners. The point is the players who are more successful in this game do a better job overcoming the obstacles i.e. injuries than others.

I hate to bring up Gekko but I use him because he's known by most everyone on the boards and has the successful track record. the guy is in the top 30 or so AGAIN. He's lost several players this year due to injury, the minors

, etc, etc for short or long periods of time. I think the majority of NFBC owners would not be that high in the standings had they had to overcome the same obstacles. Give credit where credit is due to the skilled players - gek, childs, quahogs, rkulaski, etc.

Great thread and fun to read through even if it's been discussed many times before.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:19 pm

Originally posted by rkulaski:

You keep quantifying it with OVERALL winners. Well...when more than 50% of league fees either goes toward running the event or toward the overall prize winners...you'd be silly trying to win your league each year.

That money would be much better spent in a higher stakes single league/action/ultimate if winning your league is the goal.

You do the math...

$19,500.00 league fees.

$8750 league payouts.

The main event is all about the challenge to become the overall winner.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:34 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by rkulaski:

You keep quantifying it with OVERALL winners. Well...when more than 50% of league fees either goes toward running the event or toward the overall prize winners...you'd be silly trying to win your league each year.

That money would be much better spent in a higher stakes single league/action/ultimate if winning your league is the goal.

You do the math...

$19,500.00 league fees.

$8750 league payouts.

The main event is all about the challenge to become the overall winner. [/QUOTE]Forget the money. If you want to talk skill vs luck in the nfbc, then it's easier for you to make your case when only looking at the overall winner. If they didn't have the luck component really working for them in addition to the skill, then they probably wouldn't have taken first, right?

The only other thing I can add to the skill vs luck debate is personal experience. Each year, I've put more time and preparation into this game and each year have seen much better results. Luck favors the prepared mind, yes, especially in the nfbc.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:49 pm

Originally posted by rkulaski:

Give credit where credit is due to the skilled players - gek, childs, quahogs, rkulaski, etc.

Did you really just give credit to yourself?

While putting yourself in select company.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:03 pm

The more I hear "I keep learning and learning and improving" the more I can look at their draft board and see cookie cutter zero-risk drafts.

I guess that's what works.

...at least it works for the grinders.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:05 pm

I look at guys like Aaron Hill this year and Cliff Lee last year and it just screams LUCKY!!!

Everyone jumps on the guys who string together a run of good games...and just hope and pray they do that every once in a while. When those players do it week in and week out...that is luck.

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Wed Jul 01, 2009 11:19 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

The more I hear "I keep learning and learning and improving" the more I can look at their draft board and see cookie cutter zero-risk drafts.

I guess that's what works.

...at least it works for the grinders.

lance - i think you are talking out your ass again. "zero risk drafts"...ha! my draft was all about risk. again, i selected 22 players before their adp. how many did you select before the adp comfort zone?

Gordon Gekko II · Post by **Gordon Gekko II** » Thu Jul 02, 2009 12:04 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

That money would be much better spent in a higher stakes single league/action/ultimate if winning your league is the goal.

and in those auction and ultimate leagues the competition is tougher than the main event. some people are auction specialists. the ultimate leagues seem to have more great white sharks in them.

now stop complaining lance, suck it up, and win your league!

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:37 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by rkulaski:

Give credit where credit is due to the skilled players - gek, childs, quahogs, rkulaski, etc.

Did you really just give credit to yourself?

While putting yourself in select company.

[/QUOTE]I definitely don't belong in that group - was hoping I could slip it in there. Years and years down the road, at least I can say I've been included in the same sentence as some of the all-time greats. (I just won't say that I wrote that sentence).

[ July 02, 2009, 07:40 AM: Message edited by: rkulaski ]

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:47 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

I look at guys like Aaron Hill this year and Cliff Lee last year and it just screams LUCKY!!!

Everyone jumps on the guys who string together a run of good games...and just hope and pray they do that every once in a while. When those players do it week in and week out...that is luck. Different minds. A Hill was a guy I targeted in EVERY draft. I didn't draft him expecting 30 hr, 100 runs- of course not so owners are geting more than they expected out of him but... I did expect 15-16 HR, 90rbi, 285 avg...

for his ADP, he was a great target on draft day. My co manager believed the same. We've owned him the last 2 years. Concussion- no concerns for us this year. In one satellite, my co manager took him 5 rds before adp.