I thought that since the All-Star break is on the way, and the midpoint of the season has passed, that maybe now is the time for reflection. Surely at the end of every year everyone who has not placed as high as they wished says "If only I hadn't stuck with this, or changed this". Let's pretend this is the end of the year, since for some of us the standings almost say that anyway.
In relation to stats, sure, some guys just have better second halves, but more often than not there were other ways we could have capitalized and harnessed a few extra points besides waiting too long for a player to break out of a funk.
I'd like this post to be more about strategy, not players, since if (as everyone seems to agree) luck plays such a large part, then our controllable play is that much more valuable.
Streaming a couple pitchers, regardless of their chance of picking up a win can be helpful. While ERA and WHIP are weight based, Wins and Ks are strictly a count. Meaning that had you just revolved in a two start pitcher every week, regardless of opponent, you might luck into a win or a few extra Ks. However, this strategy makes no sense if you're leading that category by a large margin. Large returns can go to a team that is within a cluster of other teams. The same holds true if you're blowing everyone away in a category. Leading wins by 15 is wasted effort, as winning a category by 15 or 1 provides no extra points.
Willing to accept bad stats as a reality, not a statistical anomaly I think is key. A career .300 hitter who hits .200 the first half is not "due" to hit .400 the second half. Remember the age of the guy, the chance that he might start to sit a little more, the fact that it might be a bad year, or threats from other guys who are producing. Making a change early, and stopping the hemmorhaging, as ridiculous as it might sound might be what you need. Remember, what you've done so far hasn't worked, and there is nothing on the horizon to make you believe it will change. You simply have the data up to this point to support a change.
Anyway, I'm interested to see other means of attack.
Cheers
Chris
Learning from our mistakes
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Schwartzstops
- Posts: 94
- Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2006 6:00 pm
Learning from our mistakes
Don't bid on a free agent unless you have a plan for how to use him, even if the plan is to stash him away for future reference. I waste too much money each year on bids for bids' sake.
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Chest Rockwell
- Posts: 2400
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Learning from our mistakes
I knew this was a mistake 5 minutes after I did it. Do not draft the upside of Chris Young over the reliablility of Tori Hunter.
Have the guts to pull the trigger on Kinsler over Rollins, Bruce over Ortiz, and Billingsley over Oswalt. All moves I debated and just made the wrong call.
In the super: Tried the investing in 2 elite closers and will never do that again. Bad strategy.
Have the guts to pull the trigger on Kinsler over Rollins, Bruce over Ortiz, and Billingsley over Oswalt. All moves I debated and just made the wrong call.
In the super: Tried the investing in 2 elite closers and will never do that again. Bad strategy.
Learning from our mistakes
Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
In the super: Tried the investing in 2 elite closers and will never do that again. Bad strategy. This was a similar strategy I used, however it could still work out poorly for me, I was just lucky so far. I took Rivera as my only closer, period. It wasn't until 12 weeks in that I finally had a compound of Rivera, Bailey, Wilson and Macdougal to hope with.
[ July 09, 2009, 09:23 AM: Message edited by: Cseitl ]
In the super: Tried the investing in 2 elite closers and will never do that again. Bad strategy. This was a similar strategy I used, however it could still work out poorly for me, I was just lucky so far. I took Rivera as my only closer, period. It wasn't until 12 weeks in that I finally had a compound of Rivera, Bailey, Wilson and Macdougal to hope with.
[ July 09, 2009, 09:23 AM: Message edited by: Cseitl ]
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Edwards Kings
- Posts: 5914
- Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: Duluth, Georgia
Learning from our mistakes
Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
Have the guts to pull the trigger on Kinsler over Rollins...I know this post is not about players, but hindsight accepted, I am not so sure the Rollins over Kinsler was a bad move in MARCH.
In Rollins, you had a MI who scored 115+ Runs four times, 35+ SB in the last four years, batted above 0.289 three times, hit 25 or more HR twice which of course goes with 80+ RBI's, and played in 150+ games seven of the last eight years. Pretty darn good resume.
Kinsler, unless he does it this year, has never played in more than 130 games in a year, stole 26 bases once, never more than 20 HR, scored more than 100 runs once and never had more than 71 RBI's.
As to strategy, picking Kinsler is gambling that this is his break-out year, which it certain looks like. Picking Rollins was (trying at least) to get a solid first rounder to help out in what some believe is a scarce position (MI) with a scarce primary asset (SB).
The results are not there in this case, as it is with Reyes this year. But I still think the logic and strategy (stability, durability, and production) was sound.
Ortiz over Bruce...ok maybe, but don't beat yourself up over this one my friend. I think it took guts to not choose the "hot" pick. Just ask all those Sizemore owners (and I would have been one of them if given the chance
).
Have the guts to pull the trigger on Kinsler over Rollins...I know this post is not about players, but hindsight accepted, I am not so sure the Rollins over Kinsler was a bad move in MARCH.
In Rollins, you had a MI who scored 115+ Runs four times, 35+ SB in the last four years, batted above 0.289 three times, hit 25 or more HR twice which of course goes with 80+ RBI's, and played in 150+ games seven of the last eight years. Pretty darn good resume.
Kinsler, unless he does it this year, has never played in more than 130 games in a year, stole 26 bases once, never more than 20 HR, scored more than 100 runs once and never had more than 71 RBI's.
As to strategy, picking Kinsler is gambling that this is his break-out year, which it certain looks like. Picking Rollins was (trying at least) to get a solid first rounder to help out in what some believe is a scarce position (MI) with a scarce primary asset (SB).
The results are not there in this case, as it is with Reyes this year. But I still think the logic and strategy (stability, durability, and production) was sound.
Ortiz over Bruce...ok maybe, but don't beat yourself up over this one my friend. I think it took guts to not choose the "hot" pick. Just ask all those Sizemore owners (and I would have been one of them if given the chance
).Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
Learning from our mistakes
I took Rollins...so I know all about how people are feeling right now.
As far as consistency, Rollins was the smart choice, but it seems like every smart choice is paired with dumb luck lately.
Another strategy with which someone might be willing to adopt, would be that of punting. If you're spending FA dollars each week trying to get back in on one category, why not just punt it. I think this might apply to SBs, such as Emilio Bonifacio, Bourne or Taveras - or even if you're dead last in saves, is it worth playing a guy who might get you one save in a week (Bailey)?
Lets say one week you play Bailey or Soria for that matter, and you grab 2 saves with 4ks and a 0.00ERA. If the two start pitcher you play can grab you a W or more Ks, two categories which you might be competing, it would make sense.
I just think, that at the halfway point of the season, now is the time to start using FA dollars and strategy the most, as the upper teams are not really panicking to make moves.
As far as consistency, Rollins was the smart choice, but it seems like every smart choice is paired with dumb luck lately.
Another strategy with which someone might be willing to adopt, would be that of punting. If you're spending FA dollars each week trying to get back in on one category, why not just punt it. I think this might apply to SBs, such as Emilio Bonifacio, Bourne or Taveras - or even if you're dead last in saves, is it worth playing a guy who might get you one save in a week (Bailey)?
Lets say one week you play Bailey or Soria for that matter, and you grab 2 saves with 4ks and a 0.00ERA. If the two start pitcher you play can grab you a W or more Ks, two categories which you might be competing, it would make sense.
I just think, that at the halfway point of the season, now is the time to start using FA dollars and strategy the most, as the upper teams are not really panicking to make moves.
Learning from our mistakes
Nice posts, with some great advice...
I would chime in with ... a few things on the "highly touted rookies". For me, what I have learned in the NFBC is that these highly touted rookies -- either batters or hitters -- only pan out let's say 1 / 10 times (in the year in question, which is all that matters b/c the NFBC is a non-keeper format). I mean really, for every Braun or Longoria that comes up each year, there are NINE other flakes, like Jordan Schaffer, Blanks, Balentien ... it goes on and on...
Same thing on the pitching side of things... for every Jordan Zimmerman (and he's been so-so), there are NINE other David Huff's, Cahill's, Holland's, and the list goes on and on.
This year, I at least got this right -- in part. The only rookies I fell prey to were Travis Snider (who I thought was reasonable, given the end of '08 performance) and Cahill, who looked great in the spring, and had good minors numbers.
So I now draft more mid-career or later career vetterans in, or close to, playing time. It is simply probability, and it just makes sense. Guys laughed at me in the Super when I was taking guys like Mark Teahen (23rd round) or Lyle Overbay (~26th round). But as non-flashy as they are, these are the guys you need for your last full-time roster spots or bench depth.
If you land one of the one or two "Braun's" that come up each year, good for you... Even better if you did it through the draft and "hold" strategy than a FAAB dump when the kid emerges. But I'm done with it.
So that's what I've learned...
Cheers.
PS -- I've also found that spring training pitching stats are basically useless. This year, I again was laughed at for taking Zack Duke in the 30th round of a Super. That has worked out quite well, and it was a decision solely based on spring training stats. That said, I also drafted Micah Owings based solely on spring training stats, and that ... uhmmm ... didn't work out. Too bad you can't pinch hit him
I would chime in with ... a few things on the "highly touted rookies". For me, what I have learned in the NFBC is that these highly touted rookies -- either batters or hitters -- only pan out let's say 1 / 10 times (in the year in question, which is all that matters b/c the NFBC is a non-keeper format). I mean really, for every Braun or Longoria that comes up each year, there are NINE other flakes, like Jordan Schaffer, Blanks, Balentien ... it goes on and on...
Same thing on the pitching side of things... for every Jordan Zimmerman (and he's been so-so), there are NINE other David Huff's, Cahill's, Holland's, and the list goes on and on.
This year, I at least got this right -- in part. The only rookies I fell prey to were Travis Snider (who I thought was reasonable, given the end of '08 performance) and Cahill, who looked great in the spring, and had good minors numbers.
So I now draft more mid-career or later career vetterans in, or close to, playing time. It is simply probability, and it just makes sense. Guys laughed at me in the Super when I was taking guys like Mark Teahen (23rd round) or Lyle Overbay (~26th round). But as non-flashy as they are, these are the guys you need for your last full-time roster spots or bench depth.
If you land one of the one or two "Braun's" that come up each year, good for you... Even better if you did it through the draft and "hold" strategy than a FAAB dump when the kid emerges. But I'm done with it.
So that's what I've learned...
Cheers.
PS -- I've also found that spring training pitching stats are basically useless. This year, I again was laughed at for taking Zack Duke in the 30th round of a Super. That has worked out quite well, and it was a decision solely based on spring training stats. That said, I also drafted Micah Owings based solely on spring training stats, and that ... uhmmm ... didn't work out. Too bad you can't pinch hit him
"Past Peformance Does Not Guarantee Future Returns"
Learning from our mistakes
I can't draft and hold. I am probably as big of *fantasy pedphile as the next guy, but the thought of holding Maybin, Buchholz, or Gamel while waiting for them to get the call...or get the call and have scattered at bats would drive me crazy.
This year it doesen't pertain to just rookies. Alot of players had the same strategy with Smoltz and that, so far, has fizzled as well.
Some years, those Braun's and Longoria's come along, most of the time, they don't. Wieters and Price were "expert's" darlings. They have been busts over their first month and a half.
Little knowns such as Reimold, Parra, and McGehee have had good partial years.
Overall, *Missouri/Missouri has beaten the *fantasy pedophile approach this year.
*- A fantasy pedophile is a fantasy baseball manager that just can't leave kids alone.
*- The Missouri/Missouri approach means that a fantasy baseball manager must be shown twice or in two different years that a player is able to perform to a standard.
This year it doesen't pertain to just rookies. Alot of players had the same strategy with Smoltz and that, so far, has fizzled as well.
Some years, those Braun's and Longoria's come along, most of the time, they don't. Wieters and Price were "expert's" darlings. They have been busts over their first month and a half.
Little knowns such as Reimold, Parra, and McGehee have had good partial years.
Overall, *Missouri/Missouri has beaten the *fantasy pedophile approach this year.
*- A fantasy pedophile is a fantasy baseball manager that just can't leave kids alone.
*- The Missouri/Missouri approach means that a fantasy baseball manager must be shown twice or in two different years that a player is able to perform to a standard.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Learning from our mistakes
I usally stay away from the top young players just because they go too high.In the ultimate this is how they went.
WIETERS 10TH ROUND bust for this round
PRICE 13TH ROUND bust
Chris Davis 3rd round complete bust.
Kershaw 9th round nice pick
Sandoval 10th round another winner
Carlos Gomez 11th round complete bust
MAX Sch 12th round ok
Cueto 13th round gold
Hanson 16th round jury still out
Volstad 16th round pretty good.
Andrus 17th round ok
Purcey 18th round bust
Jordan Zimmerman 19th round my pick like him.
Buchholtz 19th round bust
Brandon Wood 23th bust
WIETERS 10TH ROUND bust for this round
PRICE 13TH ROUND bust
Chris Davis 3rd round complete bust.
Kershaw 9th round nice pick
Sandoval 10th round another winner
Carlos Gomez 11th round complete bust
MAX Sch 12th round ok
Cueto 13th round gold
Hanson 16th round jury still out
Volstad 16th round pretty good.
Andrus 17th round ok
Purcey 18th round bust
Jordan Zimmerman 19th round my pick like him.
Buchholtz 19th round bust
Brandon Wood 23th bust
EDWARD J GILLIS
Learning from our mistakes
So then, it could be argued that in the second half of the season maybe there should be no roster spots filled with prospects if you're trying to make a charge. If you're trying to make a run at some pitching stats, now might be a time to drop the Sniders' and Laportas' and pick up some decent pitching matchups. It might even be to your advantage if -
A.) He's then picked up by another team and wastes their bench spot
B.) Another team wastes FA dollars on him.
Anyway, we're heading in the right direction.
A.) He's then picked up by another team and wastes their bench spot
B.) Another team wastes FA dollars on him.
Anyway, we're heading in the right direction.
Learning from our mistakes
Not necessarily.
Snider or LaPorta could come up in September and rip the cover off the ball. They would be under false pretenses that they would be securing a spot in the lineup in April with a good September. (Announcers love saying that players are playing for next year in September)
Personally, I would not hold either of them. But if they're hitting .4oo and I know a spot is opening for them, I would spend a couple of bucks and pick them up from the Dump.
Brandon Wood has been tearing up the minors. So far he hasn't been given much of a chance at the Big level. With the Angels in the pennant race, he'll probably get less of a chance than Snider or LaPorta. The holders of Wood have hung on for four months with no stats. Even with a good last two months, it probably wasn't a very good decision. But, now most feel they have to hang on to get any benefit at all for holding him so long.
Summarizing,
Buying and holding rookies.....in most cases, no good
Picking rookies up on the cheap....good
Also, this time of year, Missouri/Missouri is out the window. For the most part, those players are gone.
Speculation reigns supreme which in most cases, especially September, means rookies or young players or guys coming back from injury are the soup d' jour.
Also (again), if you have one dollar of faab left at the end of the year, you haven't done your job.
The $1000 is like winning a supermarket dash. Leaving a dollar is like leaving a ham behind. Mmmm, ham.
If some revere that faab money, we could increase the entry fee by $1,000 and any faab money not used would be returned.
That would change the game!
Snider or LaPorta could come up in September and rip the cover off the ball. They would be under false pretenses that they would be securing a spot in the lineup in April with a good September. (Announcers love saying that players are playing for next year in September)
Personally, I would not hold either of them. But if they're hitting .4oo and I know a spot is opening for them, I would spend a couple of bucks and pick them up from the Dump.
Brandon Wood has been tearing up the minors. So far he hasn't been given much of a chance at the Big level. With the Angels in the pennant race, he'll probably get less of a chance than Snider or LaPorta. The holders of Wood have hung on for four months with no stats. Even with a good last two months, it probably wasn't a very good decision. But, now most feel they have to hang on to get any benefit at all for holding him so long.
Summarizing,
Buying and holding rookies.....in most cases, no good
Picking rookies up on the cheap....good
Also, this time of year, Missouri/Missouri is out the window. For the most part, those players are gone.
Speculation reigns supreme which in most cases, especially September, means rookies or young players or guys coming back from injury are the soup d' jour.
Also (again), if you have one dollar of faab left at the end of the year, you haven't done your job.
The $1000 is like winning a supermarket dash. Leaving a dollar is like leaving a ham behind. Mmmm, ham.
If some revere that faab money, we could increase the entry fee by $1,000 and any faab money not used would be returned.
That would change the game!
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
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Less than Dave
- Posts: 712
- Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 6:00 pm
- Contact:
Learning from our mistakes
Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
I knew this was a mistake 5 minutes after I did it. Do not draft the upside of Chris Young over the reliablility of Tori Hunter.
Have the guts to pull the trigger on Kinsler over Rollins, Bruce over Ortiz, and Billingsley over Oswalt. All moves I debated and just made the wrong call.
In the super: Tried the investing in 2 elite closers and will never do that again. Bad strategy. I'll bet your Ortiz over Bruce call will end up being the right one by year's end. Ortiz has done nothing but hit the last month and I think he is in for a big 2nd half too...
I knew this was a mistake 5 minutes after I did it. Do not draft the upside of Chris Young over the reliablility of Tori Hunter.
Have the guts to pull the trigger on Kinsler over Rollins, Bruce over Ortiz, and Billingsley over Oswalt. All moves I debated and just made the wrong call.
In the super: Tried the investing in 2 elite closers and will never do that again. Bad strategy. I'll bet your Ortiz over Bruce call will end up being the right one by year's end. Ortiz has done nothing but hit the last month and I think he is in for a big 2nd half too...
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Glenneration X
- Posts: 3730
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
- Location: Long Island, NY
Learning from our mistakes
Originally posted by Less than Dave:
quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
I knew this was a mistake 5 minutes after I did it. Do not draft the upside of Chris Young over the reliablility of Tori Hunter.
Have the guts to pull the trigger on Kinsler over Rollins, Bruce over Ortiz, and Billingsley over Oswalt. All moves I debated and just made the wrong call.
In the super: Tried the investing in 2 elite closers and will never do that again. Bad strategy. I'll bet your Ortiz over Bruce call will end up being the right one by year's end. Ortiz has done nothing but hit the last month and I think he is in for a big 2nd half too... [/QUOTE]Ortiz over Bruce is looking really good right now.
quote:Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:
I knew this was a mistake 5 minutes after I did it. Do not draft the upside of Chris Young over the reliablility of Tori Hunter.
Have the guts to pull the trigger on Kinsler over Rollins, Bruce over Ortiz, and Billingsley over Oswalt. All moves I debated and just made the wrong call.
In the super: Tried the investing in 2 elite closers and will never do that again. Bad strategy. I'll bet your Ortiz over Bruce call will end up being the right one by year's end. Ortiz has done nothing but hit the last month and I think he is in for a big 2nd half too... [/QUOTE]Ortiz over Bruce is looking really good right now.
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Glenneration X
- Posts: 3730
- Joined: Sat Mar 21, 2009 6:00 pm
- Location: Long Island, NY
Learning from our mistakes
I'd say my biggest mistake during my first year in this contest is too much roster turnover.....
Picking up and dropping players week after week, looking for that one player who strikes lightning as my 3rd closer or 6th-7th starter, my middle infielder or 5th outfielder, my corner guy or 2nd catcher.....
Speculating each week and picking up a player, but impatiently dropping him after a couple weeks when he doesn't make an immediate impact on my roster for the next guy I feel can do the job.
Not only has this left me with minimal FAAB at my disposal remaining at the all-star break, but has also led me to drop more than a couple players amongst my three NFFC teams that I wish I had held onto just a little bit longer. The most spectacular of these being Ben Zobrist, who I dropped from both my $500 satellite team & my online championship team a mere two weeks before the entire Rays middle infield went down with injury.
I made the right call in picking him up (on the very cheap)....but while on my roster, he was only playing 3-4 games a week and struggling a bit. Instead of trusting my initial speculation, holding onto him, and waiting for opportunity....I dumped him for the next big thing.....and have regretted it ever since.
I've made this mistake here a few times, due to this being a successful tactic for me in the past for my local leagues (which don't use FAAB and don't quite have the astute managers this contest has giving me 2nd chances at mistake drops).
I think I'm too impatient to hold onto a player in the minors, not getting enough playing time, or underperforming for a half season as alluded to in an earlier post....therefore I'm sure to have more drops I regret in the future. I'll just have to make a concious effort to maybe sit a little tighter on the prospects I truly believe in.
Glenn
Picking up and dropping players week after week, looking for that one player who strikes lightning as my 3rd closer or 6th-7th starter, my middle infielder or 5th outfielder, my corner guy or 2nd catcher.....
Speculating each week and picking up a player, but impatiently dropping him after a couple weeks when he doesn't make an immediate impact on my roster for the next guy I feel can do the job.
Not only has this left me with minimal FAAB at my disposal remaining at the all-star break, but has also led me to drop more than a couple players amongst my three NFFC teams that I wish I had held onto just a little bit longer. The most spectacular of these being Ben Zobrist, who I dropped from both my $500 satellite team & my online championship team a mere two weeks before the entire Rays middle infield went down with injury.
I made the right call in picking him up (on the very cheap)....but while on my roster, he was only playing 3-4 games a week and struggling a bit. Instead of trusting my initial speculation, holding onto him, and waiting for opportunity....I dumped him for the next big thing.....and have regretted it ever since.
I've made this mistake here a few times, due to this being a successful tactic for me in the past for my local leagues (which don't use FAAB and don't quite have the astute managers this contest has giving me 2nd chances at mistake drops).
I think I'm too impatient to hold onto a player in the minors, not getting enough playing time, or underperforming for a half season as alluded to in an earlier post....therefore I'm sure to have more drops I regret in the future. I'll just have to make a concious effort to maybe sit a little tighter on the prospects I truly believe in.
Glenn
Learning from our mistakes
My mistakes are extraordinarily clear to me:
1) overmanagement / no patience
2) hoping to catch a young pitcher who has a hot outing
I have totally screwed up this year (and most years) with all my 'moves'. I am thinking to contact the players on my team however and offer to bench them for $1000 a week...
I really thought I was going to 'change' this year. I guess Change is hard (I am sure the President would agree with me on that one thing)
1) overmanagement / no patience
2) hoping to catch a young pitcher who has a hot outing
I have totally screwed up this year (and most years) with all my 'moves'. I am thinking to contact the players on my team however and offer to bench them for $1000 a week...
I really thought I was going to 'change' this year. I guess Change is hard (I am sure the President would agree with me on that one thing)
Learning from our mistakes
An old expression, but true in fantasy as well.
"You can never have enough pitching!!"
"You can never have enough pitching!!"
"I don't remmeber what I don't remember.”- Jerry Garcia
Learning from our mistakes
While none of us can have our draft over again, it's worth noting that now is the time for some more specific changes in our approach on the remainder of the year.
I love chasing wins and Ks, and just as it was said earlier in the post it's a bit like harmless gambling. However, if at this stage of the game, with our costs already sunk, why not try something new?
All that I can say is that my current course of action has not placed my team where I desire, and it is showing no signs of changing. It could be argued even, that in the grand scheme of my team of underachievers, I probably have a few guys playing through injuries, and most likely going to lose some time over the second half anyway.
One thing to add is that I don't think we give ourselves enough credit. Maybe it's not a bad idea to start taking fliers on a good pitching performance or a hot hand. While it's easy to suggest that it's a flash in the pan, sometimes flashes in the pan turn into house fires and breed nothing but confidence.
It was in toast of this post that picked up Griffey this past week. While he has done nothing to warrant a spot on my team (nor anyone else's) I believe that picking up a guy who is home watching a home run derby he won three times (Thanks Dan) has some sort of relevance. Actually, that's how I'm justifying it. What actually happened was I asked my wife who's going to win and she said Griffey. While it sounds dumb, she's picked winners based on either jersey colors or mascots and at my rate any logic seems useful.
I love chasing wins and Ks, and just as it was said earlier in the post it's a bit like harmless gambling. However, if at this stage of the game, with our costs already sunk, why not try something new?
All that I can say is that my current course of action has not placed my team where I desire, and it is showing no signs of changing. It could be argued even, that in the grand scheme of my team of underachievers, I probably have a few guys playing through injuries, and most likely going to lose some time over the second half anyway.
One thing to add is that I don't think we give ourselves enough credit. Maybe it's not a bad idea to start taking fliers on a good pitching performance or a hot hand. While it's easy to suggest that it's a flash in the pan, sometimes flashes in the pan turn into house fires and breed nothing but confidence.
It was in toast of this post that picked up Griffey this past week. While he has done nothing to warrant a spot on my team (nor anyone else's) I believe that picking up a guy who is home watching a home run derby he won three times (Thanks Dan) has some sort of relevance. Actually, that's how I'm justifying it. What actually happened was I asked my wife who's going to win and she said Griffey. While it sounds dumb, she's picked winners based on either jersey colors or mascots and at my rate any logic seems useful.
Learning from our mistakes
Originally posted by G-X:
I'd say my biggest mistake during my first year in this contest is too much roster turnover.....
Picking up and dropping players week after week, looking for that one player who strikes lightning as my 3rd closer or 6th-7th starter, my middle infielder or 5th outfielder, my corner guy or 2nd catcher.....
Speculating each week and picking up a player, but impatiently dropping him after a couple weeks when he doesn't make an immediate impact on my roster for the next guy I feel can do the job.
Not only has this left me with minimal FAAB at my disposal remaining at the all-star break, but has also led me to drop more than a couple players amongst my three NFFC teams that I wish I had held onto just a little bit longer. The most spectacular of these being Ben Zobrist, who I dropped from both my $500 satellite team & my online championship team a mere two weeks before the entire Rays middle infield went down with injury.
I made the right call in picking him up (on the very cheap)....but while on my roster, he was only playing 3-4 games a week and struggling a bit. Instead of trusting my initial speculation, holding onto him, and waiting for opportunity....I dumped him for the next big thing.....and have regretted it ever since.
I've made this mistake here a few times, due to this being a successful tactic for me in the past for my local leagues (which don't use FAAB and don't quite have the astute managers this contest has giving me 2nd chances at mistake drops).
I think I'm too impatient to hold onto a player in the minors, not getting enough playing time, or underperforming for a half season as alluded to in an earlier post....therefore I'm sure to have more drops I regret in the future. I'll just have to make a concious effort to maybe sit a little tighter on the prospects I truly believe in.
Glenn This is one of my weaknesses as well. Last year in the main, I believe we paid $20 or $30 twice to get Alexei Ramirez but did not hang onto him. After dropping him, we never got him back as he went onwards to tear up AL pitching the rest of the year.
I'd say my biggest mistake during my first year in this contest is too much roster turnover.....
Picking up and dropping players week after week, looking for that one player who strikes lightning as my 3rd closer or 6th-7th starter, my middle infielder or 5th outfielder, my corner guy or 2nd catcher.....
Speculating each week and picking up a player, but impatiently dropping him after a couple weeks when he doesn't make an immediate impact on my roster for the next guy I feel can do the job.
Not only has this left me with minimal FAAB at my disposal remaining at the all-star break, but has also led me to drop more than a couple players amongst my three NFFC teams that I wish I had held onto just a little bit longer. The most spectacular of these being Ben Zobrist, who I dropped from both my $500 satellite team & my online championship team a mere two weeks before the entire Rays middle infield went down with injury.
I made the right call in picking him up (on the very cheap)....but while on my roster, he was only playing 3-4 games a week and struggling a bit. Instead of trusting my initial speculation, holding onto him, and waiting for opportunity....I dumped him for the next big thing.....and have regretted it ever since.
I've made this mistake here a few times, due to this being a successful tactic for me in the past for my local leagues (which don't use FAAB and don't quite have the astute managers this contest has giving me 2nd chances at mistake drops).
I think I'm too impatient to hold onto a player in the minors, not getting enough playing time, or underperforming for a half season as alluded to in an earlier post....therefore I'm sure to have more drops I regret in the future. I'll just have to make a concious effort to maybe sit a little tighter on the prospects I truly believe in.
Glenn This is one of my weaknesses as well. Last year in the main, I believe we paid $20 or $30 twice to get Alexei Ramirez but did not hang onto him. After dropping him, we never got him back as he went onwards to tear up AL pitching the rest of the year.
Richard Kulaski
Fairview, TN
Fairview, TN
-
Edwards Kings
- Posts: 5914
- Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: Duluth, Georgia
Learning from our mistakes
Two guys I drafted and dropped who might have helped me were CJ Wilson (7 saves) and Joe Crede (14 bombs). Of course, I dropped Wilson and picked up JP Howell (6 saves), then dropped him. I am sooooo smart. :rolleyes:
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Charles Krauthammer
Learning from our mistakes
Ben Zobrist the pickup of the year.I had him last year in my auction league and thought he had alittle pop.I actually got him for 1 dollar in the american league auction in Vegas.In the KJ Duke league i grabbed him in the 35th round of a draftmasters.Then in week three i bid 20 on him in the ultimate and the runner up bid was 16.I had a weak 5th outfielder so was just prospecting and it paid huge.Still all three of these leagues i got a little lucky.Also picked up Aardsma for 2 but cut him the week he became closer,that one move could cost me big.You need just a little luck.
EDWARD J GILLIS
Learning from our mistakes
One additional thing I'd throw out in addition to my earlier post is on saves...
I HATE closers. I mean, I don't think you can punt the category in any of the NFBC formats. In the Super I'm in, there is 1 team that (for whatever reason) clearly punted saves -- didn't appear to draft 1 closer or closer-in-waiting (CLIW). And I just don't see that team being able to finish in the money.
I have played in the NFBC since the begining, and have tried all sorts of strategies on closers. My current, and favorite, is to simply get about two closers, passing on the "elite" (e.g., Papelbon). I took my 1st one this year (Frank Francisco in the 9th) and am still satisfied with this despite the 1+ month of DL etc. My 2nd was Joey Devine in like the 14th round (his name shall never, ever again be spoken after these keystrokes are complete).
In years past, I have always successfully "chased saves" by picking up CLIW's. Last year, I ONLY drafted 1 closer (Jenks) and finished with 14 points in my league in saves by picking up guys like Chris Perez, Qualls, Zeigler etc.
So where's this going? I guess my "mistake" is that I have come to believe I can ALWAYS find those saves on the wire. This year, I missed out on Howell, Franklin back at the begining, Madson, etc. etc. I mean, to illustrate how far this disease called chasing CLIW's has gone, I at one point was scouting Mike MacDougal in the minors after his trade to Washington ... but never picked him up unti it was too late.
All this is to say that "chasing saves" can be fun, and highly rewarding when it works out ... but this year, it has not. I am tied for 2nd last in saves in my league, and have 4 bench slots tied up in unlikely CLIW candidates.
So I may end up having to change my philosophy and grab another closer earlier next year.
Thoughts? I mean to me, I just HATE passing up on a sure bat in rounds 3-6 for a closer.
I HATE closers. I mean, I don't think you can punt the category in any of the NFBC formats. In the Super I'm in, there is 1 team that (for whatever reason) clearly punted saves -- didn't appear to draft 1 closer or closer-in-waiting (CLIW). And I just don't see that team being able to finish in the money.
I have played in the NFBC since the begining, and have tried all sorts of strategies on closers. My current, and favorite, is to simply get about two closers, passing on the "elite" (e.g., Papelbon). I took my 1st one this year (Frank Francisco in the 9th) and am still satisfied with this despite the 1+ month of DL etc. My 2nd was Joey Devine in like the 14th round (his name shall never, ever again be spoken after these keystrokes are complete).
In years past, I have always successfully "chased saves" by picking up CLIW's. Last year, I ONLY drafted 1 closer (Jenks) and finished with 14 points in my league in saves by picking up guys like Chris Perez, Qualls, Zeigler etc.
So where's this going? I guess my "mistake" is that I have come to believe I can ALWAYS find those saves on the wire. This year, I missed out on Howell, Franklin back at the begining, Madson, etc. etc. I mean, to illustrate how far this disease called chasing CLIW's has gone, I at one point was scouting Mike MacDougal in the minors after his trade to Washington ... but never picked him up unti it was too late.
All this is to say that "chasing saves" can be fun, and highly rewarding when it works out ... but this year, it has not. I am tied for 2nd last in saves in my league, and have 4 bench slots tied up in unlikely CLIW candidates.
So I may end up having to change my philosophy and grab another closer earlier next year.
Thoughts? I mean to me, I just HATE passing up on a sure bat in rounds 3-6 for a closer.
"Past Peformance Does Not Guarantee Future Returns"
Learning from our mistakes
Originally posted by TTBoy:
One additional thing I'd throw out in addition to my earlier post is on saves...
I HATE closers. I mean, I don't think you can punt the category in any of the NFBC formats. In the Super I'm in, there is 1 team that (for whatever reason) clearly punted saves -- didn't appear to draft 1 closer or closer-in-waiting (CLIW). And I just don't see that team being able to finish in the money.
I have played in the NFBC since the begining, and have tried all sorts of strategies on closers. My current, and favorite, is to simply get about two closers, passing on the "elite" (e.g., Papelbon). I took my 1st one this year (Frank Francisco in the 9th) and am still satisfied with this despite the 1+ month of DL etc. My 2nd was Joey Devine in like the 14th round (his name shall never, ever again be spoken after these keystrokes are complete).
In years past, I have always successfully "chased saves" by picking up CLIW's. Last year, I ONLY drafted 1 closer (Jenks) and finished with 14 points in my league in saves by picking up guys like Chris Perez, Qualls, Zeigler etc.
So where's this going? I guess my "mistake" is that I have come to believe I can ALWAYS find those saves on the wire. This year, I missed out on Howell, Franklin back at the begining, Madson, etc. etc. I mean, to illustrate how far this disease called chasing CLIW's has gone, I at one point was scouting Mike MacDougal in the minors after his trade to Washington ... but never picked him up unti it was too late.
All this is to say that "chasing saves" can be fun, and highly rewarding when it works out ... but this year, it has not. I am tied for 2nd last in saves in my league, and have 4 bench slots tied up in unlikely CLIW candidates.
So I may end up having to change my philosophy and grab another closer earlier next year.
Thoughts? I mean to me, I just HATE passing up on a sure bat in rounds 3-6 for a closer. Im my opinion the NFBC format has 4 check points during the draft. Two for closers and two for catchers. Where you decide to use your checks points are very strategic. You need to ask yourself: What are you giving up? Will there be any left?
as an aside: I wonder how many Aviles owners ended up with Zobrist?
One additional thing I'd throw out in addition to my earlier post is on saves...
I HATE closers. I mean, I don't think you can punt the category in any of the NFBC formats. In the Super I'm in, there is 1 team that (for whatever reason) clearly punted saves -- didn't appear to draft 1 closer or closer-in-waiting (CLIW). And I just don't see that team being able to finish in the money.
I have played in the NFBC since the begining, and have tried all sorts of strategies on closers. My current, and favorite, is to simply get about two closers, passing on the "elite" (e.g., Papelbon). I took my 1st one this year (Frank Francisco in the 9th) and am still satisfied with this despite the 1+ month of DL etc. My 2nd was Joey Devine in like the 14th round (his name shall never, ever again be spoken after these keystrokes are complete).
In years past, I have always successfully "chased saves" by picking up CLIW's. Last year, I ONLY drafted 1 closer (Jenks) and finished with 14 points in my league in saves by picking up guys like Chris Perez, Qualls, Zeigler etc.
So where's this going? I guess my "mistake" is that I have come to believe I can ALWAYS find those saves on the wire. This year, I missed out on Howell, Franklin back at the begining, Madson, etc. etc. I mean, to illustrate how far this disease called chasing CLIW's has gone, I at one point was scouting Mike MacDougal in the minors after his trade to Washington ... but never picked him up unti it was too late.
All this is to say that "chasing saves" can be fun, and highly rewarding when it works out ... but this year, it has not. I am tied for 2nd last in saves in my league, and have 4 bench slots tied up in unlikely CLIW candidates.
So I may end up having to change my philosophy and grab another closer earlier next year.
Thoughts? I mean to me, I just HATE passing up on a sure bat in rounds 3-6 for a closer. Im my opinion the NFBC format has 4 check points during the draft. Two for closers and two for catchers. Where you decide to use your checks points are very strategic. You need to ask yourself: What are you giving up? Will there be any left?
as an aside: I wonder how many Aviles owners ended up with Zobrist?
"I don't remmeber what I don't remember.”- Jerry Garcia
Learning from our mistakes
Originally posted by TTBoy:
In years past, I have always successfully "chased saves" by picking up CLIW's. Last year, I ONLY drafted 1 closer (Jenks) and finished with 14 points in my league in saves by picking up guys like Chris Perez, Qualls, Zeigler etc.
So where's this going? I guess my "mistake" is that I have come to believe I can ALWAYS find those saves on the wire.
All this is to say that "chasing saves" can be fun, and highly rewarding when it works out ... but this year, it has not. I am tied for 2nd last in saves in my league, and have 4 bench slots tied up in unlikely CLIW candidates.
So I may end up having to change my philosophy and grab another closer earlier next year.
Thoughts? I mean to me, I just HATE passing up on a sure bat in rounds 3-6 for a closer. If there was one thing I've taken out of the format this year, it's that saves are one category that high risk, can yield VERY high rewards. I drafted Rivera, and essentially no one else. This year may not have worked out for you, but not because of the lack of opportunities, I believe. We have had teams switch closers this year, and in the second half the same thing will happen. There is still time for your strategy to pan out.
I'm not for punting a category either, but if in the second half you know that you have to invest a lot (in long shot closers) trying to gain a few points, why not just punt it?
ERA is one of those stats where it is literally a crap shoot from night to night. If you're dead last in ERA, or even near the bottom, and with all the top pitching talent gone already, is there reeally a chance you can find a whole second half season of ERA sub 3.7 (moreover are all the other teams good pitchers likely to become very poor) to get you back in?? Not likely. If I'm last, or near the bottom of my league, frig ERA and just start picking up anybody. If you're last in saves, frig saves too. Having some CLIW on your roster, or spending to chase is wasting your money on a lost cause.
My strategy was simple this year. Invest very little in one category (this year saves) and make a strong effort to build that up through FA.
I want it to be clear, that my strategy for the second half is nothing like it was for the start of the year. It's like those situational challenges in video games such as "Tiger Woods Golf" or "MLB2K9". Sure we could start you out of the tee box, or the first inning, but how are you going to react coming out of the bunker trying to save par, or bottom of the ninth with 1 out and a guy on first? The game at the midway point of the season is no longer the same. Your money is sunk, you're flailing about, and it's time for something new.
In years past, I have always successfully "chased saves" by picking up CLIW's. Last year, I ONLY drafted 1 closer (Jenks) and finished with 14 points in my league in saves by picking up guys like Chris Perez, Qualls, Zeigler etc.
So where's this going? I guess my "mistake" is that I have come to believe I can ALWAYS find those saves on the wire.
All this is to say that "chasing saves" can be fun, and highly rewarding when it works out ... but this year, it has not. I am tied for 2nd last in saves in my league, and have 4 bench slots tied up in unlikely CLIW candidates.
So I may end up having to change my philosophy and grab another closer earlier next year.
Thoughts? I mean to me, I just HATE passing up on a sure bat in rounds 3-6 for a closer. If there was one thing I've taken out of the format this year, it's that saves are one category that high risk, can yield VERY high rewards. I drafted Rivera, and essentially no one else. This year may not have worked out for you, but not because of the lack of opportunities, I believe. We have had teams switch closers this year, and in the second half the same thing will happen. There is still time for your strategy to pan out.
I'm not for punting a category either, but if in the second half you know that you have to invest a lot (in long shot closers) trying to gain a few points, why not just punt it?
ERA is one of those stats where it is literally a crap shoot from night to night. If you're dead last in ERA, or even near the bottom, and with all the top pitching talent gone already, is there reeally a chance you can find a whole second half season of ERA sub 3.7 (moreover are all the other teams good pitchers likely to become very poor) to get you back in?? Not likely. If I'm last, or near the bottom of my league, frig ERA and just start picking up anybody. If you're last in saves, frig saves too. Having some CLIW on your roster, or spending to chase is wasting your money on a lost cause.
My strategy was simple this year. Invest very little in one category (this year saves) and make a strong effort to build that up through FA.
I want it to be clear, that my strategy for the second half is nothing like it was for the start of the year. It's like those situational challenges in video games such as "Tiger Woods Golf" or "MLB2K9". Sure we could start you out of the tee box, or the first inning, but how are you going to react coming out of the bunker trying to save par, or bottom of the ninth with 1 out and a guy on first? The game at the midway point of the season is no longer the same. Your money is sunk, you're flailing about, and it's time for something new.