What Price Upside?

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DOUGHBOYS
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What Price Upside?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:10 am

Lets face it, upside and downside are what we like when we think about certain players. Some players eventually live up to their supposed talent, others never do.

Rickey Weeks and Howie Kendrick have killed owners. Not only have they not lived up to their hype, they add injury on top of it. Yet, every year they usually go between the 8th and 12th round.

Weeks finished the year hurt again, and is all but guaranteed the starting job once again next year. Kendrick was getting platooned with an Izturis brother, which may speak volumes in how much faith Mike Sciosia has left for him.

Anyway, enough beating up on them.

Just to get some chatter going, I have a list of five players that will go too high in 2010



1. Weeks

2. Kendrick

3. Joba

4. Coghlan

5. Bruce



I've already brow-beated Weeks and Kendrick.

I've stated 100's of times that Joba is not a starter and will not be fantasy relevant until Mariano Rivera's right arm falls off. If he were on any other team he would already be deemed a disappointment and moved into a draft round starting with a 2. As it is, he'll be drafted between the 10th and 15th rounds.

Chris Coghlan won the N.L. Rookie of the Year award, which means little to fantasy folks. He had a great piece on MLB that showed us how a batting tee situated around the plate in different areas and heights helped him take the ball to all fields. Very interesting, but to fantasy folks, it shows that he is not interested in really hitting for a lot of power.

I equate Coghlan to David DeJesus. A lot of people expected a lot of numbers from DeJesus and were/are disappointed. Like DeJesus, he'll play on a poor team with little support. Uggla, Cantu, and Hermida will not be in that lineup next year. Coghlan may maintain a good average, but a 10/10 or so split from an outfield position will not justify his draft spot which will probably come between rounds 10-13. If he moves back to 2b, he does become more of an interest in those rounds.

Jay Bruce tore up the minors. The next wonderkid.

Beyond injuries, he has shown us that he will not be a Nick Markakis hitter, but more of a Dan Uggla type. Bruce has yet to hit .260 in the Bigs, but can muscle up a la Uggla. Both will go in single digit rounds. The problem is that Uggla will have 2b positionality and maybe 3b after the first 10 games of next year. Bruce should be drafted in a double digit round, but most likely will not.



Who are your players that you think will go too high?



[ November 19, 2009, 12:15 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]
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sportsbettingman
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What Price Upside?

Post by sportsbettingman » Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:27 am

Joe Mauer is a stud, and will help you BIG TIME in AVG as well as great numbers (especially from a C) in RBI and RUN...but I think his power regresses to more like 16-18 HR and SB are very low, plus he is a catcher (tough on the body) and he has a history of missing time and he only hit TWO home runs in September and zero in a small sample of October playoff games, and a run on sentence has no end.



Going in round one or early two would be too high IMO...mainly due to his injury history.
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Gekko
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What Price Upside?

Post by Gekko » Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:47 am

Kinda agree with you Doughy on all counts. I’ll briefly comment on yours and then give you a few of mine (later tonight or tomorrow):

Weeks – Taken too high in 2010? I might gamble on him in the teens.



Kendrick - Taken too high in 2010? Contract rate has decreased in each of his four seasons (over 100AB). Again, he’s a teen gamble for me.



Joba - Taken too high in 2010? Joba is still a talented young pup who has experienced some growing pains. Jerking him between the rotation and the bullpen can’t be helping. Stick him in the rotation all year and he’s a single round pick.



Coghlan - Taken too high in 2010? “Kid” (will be 25 in 2010) doesn’t have enough power. I’ll bump up your 10/10 projection to 10/12.



Bruce - Taken too high in 2010? 27 players (with 100+AB) hit more % of flyballs than Bruce in 2009. The combined batting average of those 27 players was a whopping .244. Flyballs that don’t leave the park are outs. Bruce is an injury-prone Dunn-lite. I’ll consider him in rounds 10+ IF my team batting average can withstand a beating.

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What Price Upside?

Post by Glenneration X » Thu Nov 19, 2009 6:57 am

I agree with all of the players you listed Dough....I for one got caught up in the Joba hype last year and he certainly didn't live up to the single digit pick I paid for him.



Other players I see out there that were drafted too early last year due to hype and will be drafted too early again this year.....



Josh Hamilton

BJ Upton

Matt Weiters

David Price



I'd also like to say that Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez offer almost zero upside considering where they're likely to be picked.



Glenn

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What Price Upside?

Post by Schwks » Thu Nov 19, 2009 7:55 am

Beckham shocked me...dont get me wrong his part season numbers looked very strong, if slightly streaky. But I think he went in 5th or 6th round which is very high for a guy with that sampling size. Taking him in the 5th is asking for Chris Davis like pain.
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What Price Upside?

Post by headhunters » Thu Nov 19, 2009 8:56 am

kinda funny dough- i think thev same thing about loney as you do about coghlan and bruce. if a corner hits 98% groundballs and is fairly slow- i just don't see him playing to a top 12 round player. so bruce hits a ton of flys- and so his b.a. will be low. i agree. coghlan won't hit for power- and the lineup could be bad- i somewhat agree. if you bat 1st and get on and can run a little- you might score more runs with someone that hits .280 hitting behind you- in stread of .240. i guess we can keep hoping loney hits it in the air and torre keeps insisting on hitting martin and loney way up in the lineup and matt- the stud- kemp 8th. in fact i heard a rumor that torre said if he could get a carlos zambrano or micah owings type to pitch he would think about batting kemp 9th.

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What Price Upside?

Post by rkulaski » Fri Nov 20, 2009 4:49 pm

Off the top of my head and looking at some early rankings, Crawford at 5th or 6th overall is too high. Mauer could be this year's "Pedroia" in that he's much more likely to see his home runs go down than up. Pedroia was a borderline 1st rd pick, early 2nd rd pick in March, which is where Mauer will likely go this year. Beckham, Coghlan will likely go too early for my liking. I believe in Kendrick but I will not be reaching for him like I will certain other players.
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What Price Upside?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Nov 23, 2009 4:42 am

Gekko will have a list of examples that will go too high as well soon. Until then, lets do some players that will be all over the map come draft day.

The old motto, "One man's trash is another man's treasure" applies here.



Kurt Suzuki

Magglio Ordonez

Russell Martin

Brandon Webb

Ricky Nolasco

Chris Coghlan

Gordon Beckham

Zack Greinke



Suzuki will be under/over valued in a lot of drafts. Heck, I'm still trying to determine what his real value is.

Ordonez could be one of those vets that has a last hurrah. A lot of owners are still enamored by him.

I posted before last years draft that Martin could end up hitting eighth in that lineup. I was poo-poo'ed for it. I still feel the same way, but there will be several drafters who feel he is due for a bounceback.

Webb coming back from injury may have the largest variance, especially with a setback.

Nolasco, everybody will be wondering which Nolasco shows up next year.

Beckham and Coghlan will be taken too soon in most drafts. As soon as the fifth, as late as the 13th depending on drafters.

I include Greinke because, to me, going anywhere in the first four rounds is more than a five round variance later in the draft. Folks who believe in Greinke's stuff will not let him slip out of the second round. Wins may be the prevailing thought in some drafts though, and he could fall possibly to the fourth round in some drafts.

What about you?

Who do you feel may fall through the cracks during some drafts and get picked too early in others?
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Greg Ambrosius
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What Price Upside?

Post by Greg Ambrosius » Mon Nov 23, 2009 5:50 am

Dan, in the Bill James 2010 Baseball Handbook, they have projected Julio Borbon to have a season of .308, 7 homers, 47 RBIs, 42 stolen bases and 85 runs. Do you think that will get some folks thinking on Draft Day? Do you think that might lead to some variance for that player??



I was in football mode in September, so I didn't see him play much. Is this the real deal in this high-powered offense?
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What Price Upside?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:08 am

Good name, Greg.

Bill James projections for youngsters are always out of whack. If he played fantasy baseball anymore, he would more than likely, be a child molester of monstrous proportions.

Here is his take on a few youngsters from last year:



Cameron Maybin- .276/16/58/86/32



Carlos Gomez- .267/8/63/81/41



Chris Dickerson- .268/21/74/93/37



I love Bill James stuff, but I take his projections with a grain of salt.

Borbon will be subject to what the Rangers do in the off season. As it stands now, with the loss of Byrd, Borbon looks on his way to starting in the Rangers outfield. But a free agent pick up could change that quickly.

Again, good name, Borbon could have a wide variance for 2010 drafts.
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What Price Upside?

Post by Quahogs » Mon Nov 23, 2009 6:40 am

Doughie, where do I draft Juan Rivera ?



Is Raffy Furcal really a 35 year old roider or will Raffy's back be back?



How about Chris Young (az? Where does he go? How do I ignore his perennial spring training .370 ba and stance adjustment news tweets?

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What Price Upside?

Post by Schwks » Mon Nov 23, 2009 8:49 am

How about some of your former SP studs, guys like Zambrano, Oswalt, Bedard, Harden? I think that those type of guys all showed enough last year to be either considered viable 2-3 sps or fading dross, depending upon the evaluator.
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What Price Upside?

Post by DOUGHBOYS » Mon Nov 23, 2009 9:09 am

Q, I actually thought of listing Furcal. Then thought better of it. It's rare that a player of Furcal's age and back comes back to be the player that he was earlier in his career. Especially a player that was mostly dependant on speed.

My guess is that he goes in double digit rounds for the first time in his career.

Rivera will have a wider variance because of Missouri/Missouri, it'll depend on how many drafters will take him without having to repeat those numbers.

I should have listed Chris Young. Good catch. The guy was totally lost last year. He has talent, but if he gets off to a slow start for Arizona next year, they'll send him back to AAA instead of being patient. He's going to have a very wide variance, maybe even wider than Ordonez.

Batting stance adjustments and a .370 spring average mean as much to Young, as hair plugs and new clothes on me. Come April, Young will still be Young and I'll still be me, we'll just look like we improved
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What Price Upside?

Post by kgrady » Thu Nov 26, 2009 5:57 am

Let me toss a couple names out here, guys that were traded for one another this off-season. JJ Hardy and Carlos Gomez. Hardy was a top 10 shorstop on draft day and he had miserable season in Milwaukee. Gomez' bat eventually made him the odd man out in the Twins crowded outfield situation. The change of scenery and renewed opportunity should help both players.



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