What Is The First Round Looking Like?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 4:19 am

This is a blog I wrote for Fanball.com. I thought I'd give it an early preview here.

You can't win an NFBC league title without a great foundation and the cornerstone of that foundation is usually found in the first round. In the past, those first round selections were set in stone very early, but 2010 is not going to be your typical year.

I know it's still late November and there are plenty of personnel changes ahead, but in early drafts that I've seen so far the first round is totally up for grabs. The first two picks in every draft I've seen so far have been Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez, but after that, look out.

Alex Rodriguez appears to be a sure Top 5 pick as he's gone as high as third and no lower than fifth from the drafts I've witnessed. Chase Utley also seems like a sure-fire Top 5 pick and Ryan Braun has snuck into the Top 5 as well. I've also seen Joe Mauer and Miguel Cabrera go in the Top 5, but I think both will be Top 10 picks by Draft Day.

The discrepancy in draft selections has been very interesting from the drafts I've seen so far. It's surprising because usually you have a Top 15 that is pretty established by now. But this year with so many injuries to top stars, you are going to see a variance like never before.

For instance:

I've seen Troy Tulowitzki go as high as 7th and as low as 23rd.

Mark Teixeira went 4th in one draft and 15th the next day.

Jose Reyes has gone as high as 16th and as low as 27th.

Carl Crawford went 4th one day and 17th the next.

And those are just potential first rounders. Wait until you get into the middle rounds to see variances.

Anyway, my early first round Cheat Sheet would look like this:

1. Albert Pujols

2. Hanley Ramirez

3. Alex Rodriguez

4. Chase Utley

5. Ryan Braun

6. Matt Kemp

7. Joe Mauer

8. Miguel Cabrera

9. Prince Fielder

10. Mark Teixeira

11. Ryan Howard

12. Tim Lincecum

13. David Wright

14. Evan Longoria

15. Carl Crawford

Other players to consider for the first round include Troy Tulowitzki, Jacoby Ellsbury, Justin Upton and even Jose Reyes. Owners at the bottom of the first round could secure power and speed with their first two picks if everything works out.

Reyes is a former top pick who is coming off a serious injury and has a lot of question marks surrounding him before 2010. Still, owners apparently believe he will bounce back and provide the stolen bases they need as Reyes seems to be landing in the 17th to 20th spots. Grady Sizemore also had an injury-riddled 2009 and he went 22nd overall in three straight drafts that I witnessed. Josh Hamilton, another star player who suffered numerous injuries in 2009, seems to be going around 39th to 46th, falling to the third or fourth round.

It’s tough to win a league title without a good foundation. Make sure you get that cornerstone in place before filling in the rest of the bricks to this winning team. Good luck everyone.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 5:08 am

Great stuff, Greg.

One fella not mentioned is Matt Holliday. Signed by the right team he could be a first rounder in a few drafts as well.

The tail end of the first round and the whole second round are looking like a Las Vegas buffet, a little something for everyone.

BigHurt · Post by **BigHurt** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 8:34 am

Mark Reynolds is another guy that could potentially sneak into the end of the first round. Interesting combo of power/speed some will jump at.

crazytown · Post by **crazytown** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 9:17 am

Greg,

Regarding Reyes, was he taken earliest in the magazine leagues or the slow draft? I believe when people have to put up their own money, Reyes is a guy who will slide right now just because of his unknown status.

Thanks

Atlas · Post by **Atlas** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 2:15 pm

Originally posted by BigHurt:

Mark Reynolds is another guy that could potentially sneak into the end of the first round. Interesting combo of power/speed some will jump at. ....and position flexibility.

Atlas · Post by **Atlas** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 2:16 pm

Originally posted by BigHurt:

Mark Reynolds is another guy that could potentially sneak into the end of the first round. Interesting combo of power/speed some will jump at. ....and position flexibility.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 2:44 pm

Originally posted by crazytown.gov:

Greg,

Regarding Reyes, was he taken earliest in the magazine leagues or the slow draft? I believe when people have to put up their own money, Reyes is a guy who will slide right now just because of his unknown status.

Thanks 16th in a pay league. Stolen bases are going to be tough to find this year, which means that folks will take the chance on Reyes this year.

751542 · Post by **751542** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 3:38 pm

not me!!!

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Wed Nov 25, 2009 4:04 pm

I wouldn't draft Reyes that high and I'm a Mets fan....now that I think about it, maybe that's why I wouldn't draft him that high....

He's the ultimate risk/reward....but I think way more risk than reward this year.

Of course if he's flying around the bases come springtime, the temptation may grow....

Glenn

RSilver · Post by **RSilver** » Thu Nov 26, 2009 3:32 am

Crawford was the fourth most valuable batter last year after Pujols, Hanley and Braun. Why do you think his stats will be significantly worse in 2010 than in 2009?

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 12:32 pm

Originally posted by RSilver:

Crawford was the fourth most valuable batter last year after Pujols, Hanley and Braun. Why do you think his stats will be significantly worse in 2010 than in 2009? You're stating this as if it's a fact... by what stat are you measuring player values? The NFBC player rater?

Spyhunter · Post by **Spyhunter** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:32 pm

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

quote:Originally posted by RSilver:

Crawford was the fourth most valuable batter last year after Pujols, Hanley and Braun. Why do you think his stats will be significantly worse in 2010 than in 2009? You're stating this as if it's a fact... by what stat are you measuring player values? The NFBC player rater? [/QUOTE]He is at #5 on the ESPN rater which is pretty good. Personally, while I like him alot (and he helped me immensly in my auction team), I think he will go lower due to his second half being so much weaker than the first...

Spyhunter

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Sun Nov 29, 2009 2:46 pm

well, how valuable a player is really depends on the individual game: what categories, how many players/positions/etc.. how everything is weighted... just curious what player rating system he was looking at... right now I have crawford at 13 for next year, but that could easily change between now and the start of the year...

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 4:25 am

According to Peter Gammons of ESPN, former-MVP second baseman Dustin Pedroia may switch positions to shortstop in 2010.

From Rototimes:

"Our View: The Sox first proposed the question, but Pedroia is now deadly serious about making the transition. The move would obviously solve Boston's much-discussed shortstop woes, and also allow them to sign a free agent second baseman, a crop of which is much deeper than this year's free agent shortstops. Orlando Hudson and Marco Scutaro are possibilities. In 184 career minor league games at shortstop, Pedroia made just seven errors."

While I do not think dual-position eligability will cause him to sneak into the first round, if he does start playing shortstop this spring, I bet with the attention it will get, he starts climbing in the ADP's to maybe the third 2B taken.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:22 am

wow... ya I'd say with dual eligibility he would likely go before Phillips, Roberts, Hill, and Cano... but not Kinsler.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:42 am

Why compare him to 2b in this scenario?

Would he go ahead of Rollins? Tulo? Jeter?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 8:43 am

Hmmmm, what is the second round looking like now with Pedroia's possible move? Sounds like the next column for me. I better get working on that.

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 8:49 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Hmmmm, what is the second round looking like now with Pedroia's possible move? Sounds like the next column for me. I better get working on that.

whatever it takes for the red sox not to give millions to a 35 year old utility guy that had a career year. not to mention that we'd be giving up a #1 as well? umm hell no. i wouldnt give up a 10th rounder for the sake of signing scutaro.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 9:22 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Why compare him to 2b in this scenario?

Would he go ahead of Rollins? Tulo? Jeter? Hmmmm...Drafting today...Rollins (Yes)...Jeter (Yes)...Tulo (Maybe).

So that makes him a good candidate to be the fifth or sixth MI taken (after Hanley, Utley, Kinsler, Tulo, ???).

[ December 01, 2009, 03:24 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 9:38 am

I'd definitely take Tulo ahead of him... not sure on Rollins yet

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 9:49 am

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

I'd definitely take Tulo ahead of him... not sure on Rollins yet You'd better be ready to pay for Tulo this year. He's gone in the first in both slow drafts thus far.

If "Little Pedro" gets SS eligibility, I don't see it changing his rank all that much. Multi-positional eligibility is nice, but the difference between 2B and SS isn't that great. Just my opinion.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Tue Dec 01, 2009 11:23 am

haha I didn't say I was going to take Tulo.. but if both were still there and I did want one of them I'd take Tulo as of right now

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 1:44 am

I must say this year's free agents aren't creating the buzz, even with the Holiday/Bay sweepstakes. Last year we had CC and AJ and Tex. This year, I see more written about Polanco, DeRosa, and Lackey. Just not quite the same.

Someone throw some more wood in the stove and let it get real hot!

Schwks · Post by **Schwks** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 4:34 am

Tulowitzki is an interesting call. THere is no question that he was one of, if not the best offensive player in 2nd half of 09. But he KILLED owners who took him in 08(rounds 3-5 if I remember right) and was so bad in parts of April and May, 09 that I actually benched him in one league. He represents a lot of upside at a thin position, but also a ton of risk as a first round investment. I see that CC Desp took him in mid-first round of Magazine mock.. a bit of a surprise for me with CC who, if I read him right, likes to lock down sure things in first few rounds.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Dec 03, 2009 7:25 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I must say this year's free agents aren't creating the buzz, even with the Holiday/Bay sweepstakes. Last year we had CC and AJ and Tex. This year, I see more written about Polanco, DeRosa, and Lackey. Just not quite the same.

Someone throw some more wood in the stove and let it get real hot! One guy that would not appeal to me as a G.M. would be Adrian Beltre. Since his probable steroid-driven year of 2004, he has not hit above .276 and hit eight home runs in 111 games last year.

Games played has also diminished with each succeeding year since signing with Seattle.

Somebody will pay a lot for a lump of coal.