NFBC/Fanball Magazine Mock Draft Results

[Greg Ambrosius]

Today we held an NFBC-style mock draft that included 10 of the editors with Fanball.com and 5 NFBC veterans. We drafted 23 rounds, filling up our starting positions. The 15-teamer is an eye-opener, that's for sure, as depth at certain positions dries up quickly. Wow.



Anyway, all of the results will be in Fanball's Just Cheat Sheets issue that hits newsstands in late January, but we'll post the first 10 rounds here for all to chew on. Enjoy...and feel free to comment.



NFBC Mock Draft:

First Round:

R1 P1 Ken Magner Pujols, Albert

R1 P2 Mike Sheets Ramirez, Hanley

R1 P3 Ted Carlson Rodriguez, Alex

R1 P4 Greg Ambrosius Braun, Ryan

R1 P5 Dan Semsel Utley, Chase

R1 P6 Paul Sporer Kemp, Matt

R1 P7 Charlie Wiegert Crawford, Carl

R1 P8 Tom Kessenich Cabrera, Miguel

R1 P9 Seth Trachtman Howard, Ryan

R1 P10 Ryan Houston Teixeira, Mark

R1 P11 Tony Cincotta Fielder, Prince

R1 P12 Todd Zola Longoria, Evan

R1 P13 Kyle Elfrink Ellsbury, Jacoby

R1 P14 Emory Upchurch Tulowitzki, Troy

R1 P15 Jason Collette Mauer, Joe



Second Round:

R2 P1 Jason Collette Lincecum, Tim

R2 P2 Emory Upchurch Kinsler, Ian

R2 P3 Kyle Elfrink Rollins, Jimmy

R2 P4 Todd Zola Wright, David

R2 P5 Tony Cincotta Votto, Joey

R2 P6 Ryan Houston Suzuki, Ichiro

R2 P7 Seth Trachtman Gonzalez, Adrian

R2 P8 Tom Kessenich Reyes, Jose

R2 P9 Charlie Wiegert Reynolds, Mark

R2 P10 Paul Sporer Phillips, Brandon

R2 P11 Dan Semsel Pedroia, Dustin

R2 P12 Greg Ambrosius Holliday, Matt

R2 P13 Ted Carlson Roberts, Brian

R2 P14 Mike Sheets Upton, Justin

R2 P15 Ken Magner Sizemore, Grady



Third Round:

R3 P1 Ken Magner Halladay, Roy

R3 P2 Mike Sheets Zobrist, Ben

R3 P3 Ted Carlson Morneau, Justin

R3 P4 Greg Ambrosius Greinke, Zack

R3 P5 Dan Semsel Youkilis, Kevin

R3 P6 Paul Sporer Zimmerman, Ryan

R3 P7 Charlie Wiegert Jeter, Derek

R3 P8 Tom Kessenich Bay, Jason

R3 P9 Seth Trachtman Granderson, Curtis

R3 P10 Ryan Houston Choo, Shin-Soo

R3 P11 Tony Cincotta Werth, Jayson

R3 P12 Todd Zola Sandoval, Pablo

R3 P13 Kyle Elfrink Markakis, Nick

R3 P14 Emory Upchurch Martinez, Victor

R3 P15 Jason Collette Lind, Adam



Fourth Round:

R4 P1 Jason Collette Cruz, Nelson

R4 P2 Emory Upchurch Morales, Kendry

R4 P3 Kyle Elfrink Sabathia, CC

R4 P4 Todd Zola Haren, Dan

R4 P5 Tony Cincotta Cano, Robinson

R4 P6 Ryan Houston Lee, Carlos

R4 P7 Seth Trachtman Hernandez, Felix

R4 P8 Tom Kessenich Verlander, Justin

R4 P9 Charlie Wiegert Lee, Derrek

R4 P10 Paul Sporer Beltran, Carlos

R4 P11 Dan Semsel McCann, Brian

R4 P12 Greg Ambrosius Berkman, Lance

R4 P13 Ted Carlson Santana, Johan

R4 P14 Mike Sheets Upton, B.J.

R4 P15 Ken Magner Victorino, Shane



Fifth Round:

R5 P1 Ken Magner Beckham, Gordon

R5 P2 Mike Sheets Abreu, Bobby

R5 P3 Ted Carlson Dunn, Adam

R5 P4 Greg Ambrosius Figgins, Chone

R5 P5 Dan Semsel Lester, Jon

R5 P6 Paul Sporer Butler, Billy

R5 P7 Charlie Wiegert Hill, Aaron

R5 P8 Tom Kessenich McCutchen, Andrew

R5 P9 Seth Trachtman Young, Michael

R5 P10 Ryan Houston Ramirez, Manny

R5 P11 Tony Cincotta Lee, Cliff

R5 P12 Todd Zola Hunter, Torii

R5 P13 Kyle Elfrink Pena, Carlos

R5 P14 Emory Upchurch Broxton, Jonathan

R5 P15 Jason Collette Rodriguez, Wandy



Sixth Round:

R6 P1 Jason Collette Kendrick, Howie

R6 P2 Emory Upchurch Wainwright, Adam

R6 P3 Kyle Elfrink Rivera, Mariano

R6 P4 Todd Zola Jones, Adam

R6 P5 Tony Cincotta Ramirez, Aramis

R6 P6 Ryan Houston Ramirez, Alexei

R6 P7 Seth Trachtman Johnson, Josh

R6 P8 Tom Kessenich Hanson, Tommy

R6 P9 Charlie Wiegert Carpenter, Chris

R6 P10 Paul Sporer Ethier, Andre

R6 P11 Dan Semsel Beckett, Josh

R6 P12 Greg Ambrosius Hamilton, Josh

R6 P13 Ted Carlson Gallardo, Yovani

R6 P14 Mike Sheets Hamels, Cole

R6 P15 Ken Magner Jones, Garrett



Seventh Round:

R7 P1 Ken Magner Nathan, Joe

R7 P2 Mike Sheets Cain, Matt

R7 P3 Ted Carlson Rios, Alex

R7 P4 Greg Ambrosius Papelbon, Jonathan

R7 P5 Dan Semsel Bourn, Michael

R7 P6 Paul Sporer Drew, Stephen

R7 P7 Charlie Wiegert Ibanez, Raul

R7 P8 Tom Kessenich Rodriguez, Francisco

R7 P9 Seth Trachtman Gonzalez, Carlos

R7 P10 Ryan Houston Bailey, Andrew

R7 P11 Tony Cincotta Wieters, Matt

R7 P12 Todd Zola Bartlett, Jason

R7 P13 Kyle Elfrink Stewart, Ian

R7 P14 Emory Upchurch Soriano, Alfonso

R7 P15 Jason Collette Cuddyer, Michael



Eighth Round:

R8 P1 Jason Collette Nolasco, Ricky

R8 P2 Emory Upchurch Jimenez, Ubaldo

R8 P3 Kyle Elfrink Vazquez, Javier

R8 P4 Todd Zola Peavy, Jake

R8 P5 Tony Cincotta Quentin, Carlos

R8 P6 Ryan Houston Garza, Matt

R8 P7 Seth Trachtman Uggla, Dan

R8 P8 Tom Kessenich Jones, Chipper

R8 P9 Charlie Wiegert Bell, Heath

R8 P10 Paul Sporer Soria, Joakim

R8 P11 Dan Semsel Fuentes, Brian

R8 P12 Greg Ambrosius Lopez, Jose

R8 P13 Ted Carlson Pence, Hunter

R8 P14 Mike Sheets McLouth, Nate

R8 P15 Ken Magner Kershaw, Clayton



Ninth Round:

R9 P1 Ken Magner Cabrera, Asdrubal

R9 P2 Mike Sheets Burnett, A.J.

R9 P3 Ted Carlson Lackey, John

R9 P4 Greg Ambrosius Weaver, Jered

R9 P5 Dan Semsel Kubel, Jason

R9 P6 Paul Sporer Andrus, Elvis

R9 P7 Charlie Wiegert Shields, James

R9 P8 Tom Kessenich Weeks, Rickie

R9 P9 Seth Trachtman Pierre, Juan

R9 P10 Ryan Houston Bruce, Jay

R9 P11 Tony Cincotta Morgan, Nyjer

R9 P12 Todd Zola Span, Denard

R9 P13 Kyle Elfrink Davis, Rajai

R9 P14 Emory Upchurch Damon, Johnny

R9 P15 Jason Collette Street, Huston



Tenth Round:

R10 P1 Jason Collette Prado, Martin

R10 P2 Emory Upchurch Billingsley, Chad

R10 P3 Kyle Elfrink Marmol, Carlos

R10 P4 Todd Zola Cordero, Francisco

R10 P5 Tony Cincotta Wilson, Brian

R10 P6 Ryan Houston Jurrjens, Jair

R10 P7 Seth Trachtman Tejada, Miguel

R10 P8 Tom Kessenich Martin, Russell

R10 P9 Charlie Wiegert Suzuki, Kurt

R10 P10 Paul Sporer Valverde, Jose

R10 P11 Dan Semsel Wagner, Billy

R10 P12 Greg Ambrosius Posada, Jorge

R10 P13 Ted Carlson Soriano, Rafael

R10 P14 Mike Sheets Qualls, Chad

R10 P15 Ken Magner Coghlan, Chris



Thoughts?

[GYOZTES]

When was Scott Baker taken?

[Gekko]

jason collette must be ron shandler's lover

[Spartacus]

I couldn't help but notice Todd's top 3 picks. Grabbing 3 third baseman (Sandoval qualifies at first as well) and sewing up his corners while creating a climate of need at arguably one of the weakest positions this year. Nice.

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by Gekko:

jason collette must be ron shandler's lover He did take some of Ron's hyped picks, but starting out Catcher/Pitcher is very un-Shandler-esque.



Mauer 15th is later than I have seen him go recently (and still too early ).



Eight pitchers or so by the end of the fourth round...wonder if that trend will hold up in March.



Love Greg's start...tell me this...were you tempted to take Youk rather than Zack?



Loved Tom's team, but Chipper/Weeks is a heart-breaker. Gut call, Tom?



Who finally told Todd it was ok NOT to pick a third-baseman!

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

[QUOTE]Love Greg's start...tell me this...were you tempted to take Youk rather than Zack?I don't usually take a starting pitcher third but I liked Greinke as an anchor even on that bad team. He just was so much fun to watch last year and I don't see any reason why he can't do it again this year. I took Lance Berkman coming back in the fourth. Not great, but he will do.

[ToddZ]

I'm pretty used to being in a draft/auction were over half the draft is using the same rankings -- thing is they are usually my rankings



It was kind of fun to be an outsider in a draft where it was fairly obvious a great deal were using the same set of rankings. Those that have seen me at the poker table know I am horrible at getting a read on other's hands, but I was able to get a read on where many of these guys would be looking, so the trick was to figure out how far to let "my guys" slide and how I can take advantage of that.



Going 3B-3B-1B was not part of the master plan. Longoria was pretty much at value and my only 'strategy' in the first 2 rounds was to try to avoid outfielders as my rankings have a tankload of them in rounds 3-6, and with others reaching for scarcity in rounds 1-4, I could scoop up my OF guys at big value in rounds 5-7.



I was hoping Tulowotski would slide to me in the 2nd, but no go. Wright was next on my rankings, with Holliday and Sizemore not far behind. SO instead of taking a similarly valued outfielder and tying up that roster spot, I decided to have some fun and take Wright as I am not "afraid" of him. The way I see it, in the past, he has been a solid contributor in HR, BA and SB. Will his power return? I honestly don't know. But where I took him, his BA and SB will give me sufficient return, with the potential upside of a bounce back in homers.



Sandoval will obviously play 1B and I have no qualms using him there. I think the batting average is real.



Taking Haren in the 4th was a result of knowing the OF I like at this point will still be available to me, and indeed they were.



Overall, my offense is of the solid but boring variety, which was by design as I figured this group would start taking flyers in an effort to the one that could say "I told you so." I say let them and pick up the tried and true while they have their in-house pissing contest



My staff has a little more injury risk than I would normally incur, and if it were an NFBC draft with the loose rules about filling an active roster, I would have taken a few flyers on starters before R23 and taken boring guys in reserve.

[MadCow Sez]

If Greg had taken Youk instead of Greinke I would have reached for Sandoval. 1B/3B flexibility is nice on those 2 guys.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Quick lesson: Don't wait too long on that second catcher!! Wow, after about 20 there is negative value for the second catcher you find. I wanted Buster Posey and screamed when he went right before me. After that, it was doomsday. I'd go C-C next time rather than go the route I ended up with.

[Philly Phantom]

Hey, I just wanted to post some thoughts on the first 10 rounds of the draft. Take them for the 2 cents they are probably worth



Magner - I like the Pujols/Sizemore combo to start. It's probably a little power heavy but I thought you did a nice job of balancing it with the speed of Victorino. I like the Halladay pickup and the fact that you didn't feel the need to go back to the SP well again soon. After picking up your ace you waited a number of rounds before supplementing him with Kershaw. I like the upside picks of Beckham, Cabrera and Coghlan and I like the position versatility that those picks give your team going forward. Beckham will gain 2b elig early in the year, it sounds like Coghlan will gain 2b if Uggla is dealt, and Cabrera already has 2b and SS. Solid power/speed balance though you might be slightly light on the power at the end of the 10th. I think you are solid BA wise with Pujols, ACab and Coghlan as anchors. I like the Nathan pick and the balance of 3 pitchers to 7 hitters. The only pick I disagree with is G Jones. I think you reached picking him at 90 (ADP of around 105 from a limited number of drafts). The power seems legit, but I don't see the speed returning as he only ever stole double digits in one other year (though 14 at Indy this year). The average also looks like it's going to drop as his lifetime minors avg is 258. He's 28, didn't come in as a top prospect, and I think he has a good chance to bust.



Sheets - I really like the first 5 rounds of this draft as you took care of 2b, SS and 3 OF slots with versatile power/speed/avg guys. I like that you went back to back SP picks with Hamels and Cain. Since you waited awhile to get your first SP, I thought you made a good move by coming back to it immediately and getting Cain. I like that Cain improved his BB/9 and K/BB but his K/9 dropped and his FIP was a full run above his ERA. The ADP value seems about right at 92 but I might have picked another SP here. I like McLouth as a player but I'm not sure he fits your team at this point. A 4th OF seems fairly redundant at this point and I might have tried to find a corner IF (though looking at it the pantry is pretty bare at this point for a corner IF at fair ADP value). I'm not a huge Burnett fan because of his inconsistency from game to game but the K's are there so that is always helpful. You filled a need nicely with Qualls. Looking back at it you probably needed to move earlier on filling atleast one corner IF spot. You have a really nice OF but a substantial hole at the corners of your IF.



Carlson - I like the ARod, Roberts, Morneau start. I'm a little nervous about Morneau and his back but at 33 that's a nice value (as I have his ADP calculated at 28 right now). Santana, Gallardo, and Lackey are a nice top three but I think there's a little too much injury risk there for my liking. Santana is coming off of an injury last year and both Lackey (10th) and Gallardo (18th) were in the top 20 for avg pitcher abuse points per start. I like the Rios and Pence pickups as solid power/speed OF's but the combo of Dunn and Rios could have a negative pull on your avg if Rios does not rebound. On the plus side Rios BABIP of 277 was well below the numbers he posted in previous years. Soriano was a nice pickup in the 10th.



Ambrosius - I like the start with Braun, Holliday and Greinke. Your OF obviously has a really nice start here and while being slightly light on the SB side to start, could still be fine. You are banking fairly heavily on a Berk rebound and I'm not really sure if it's coming. His BA was down last year without a heavy downturn in BABIP, runs and RBI's were down significantly, and his OPS was down 80 points. The RBI and run numbers can somewhat be attributed to the lineup around him but with Houston being hit with some fairly heavy monetary restraints, I don't really see that changing. Figgins was a nice fit for you with all of the power that you had drafted above him but you are certainly behind in SB after the first 10 rounds. Drafting Lopez and not getting many SB from 2b leaves less places for you to gain SB numbers. I like how you waited after getting Greinke to get your 2nd SP (Weaver). Greinke, Weaver and Papelbon make a nice start to your staff and while I think you will see some regression from Posada, getting him at 147 was solid.



Semsel - An interesting start to the draft as you fill your 2b and MI positions first. Both guys are solid power/speed guys which will be good. I like the Youk pick in the 3rd because it gives you some versatility with 1b and 3b. McCann is obviously solid and you can wait awhile to get your 2nd catcher now. I like the back to back pitchers, since you waited awhile to get your SP but I'm starting to worry about what you are going to be able to get in the OF. While Lester and Beckett are solid, they have both thrown a pretty good amount of innings the last couple of years between season innings and long playoff runs, they were rated 20th and 21st in avg pitcher abuse points per start last year. I'm not a huge fan of the Fuentes/Wagner RP tandem or the Bourn/Kubel OF.



Sporer - So you went really heavy on hitting here and filled a number of holes. I like the Kemp, Phillips, Zim, Beltran (who I think was a really solid value at this point in the draft) start. I know there weren't many options at 1b at this point but I think the Butler pick and then subsequent Ethier and Drew picks really put you behind the 8 ball with pitching. I like the Soria and Valverde combo for your bullpen but I think you are too far behind at this point in SP. Everyone else has atleast 2 (except for Cincotta who has Cliff Lee). Finding guys with a high enough k/9 at this point is going to be difficult. I'll be interested to see who you were able to fill into your rotation with picks 11-23.



Wiegert - Crawford and Reynolds are the perfect one/two combo to start you off strong with both power and speed. I'm hoping that the combo of Crawford and Jeter will be able to balance Reynolds avg (which I see regressing next year). D Lee fit in nicely at 1b for you. The Hill and Ibanez picks put you in a slightly difficult place as far as SB are concerned. You have two great guys for SB in Crawford and Jeter but I think you missed out on some balanced players (both power/speed) by taking Hill and Ibanez. I think McCutchen, Hunter, or C. Gonzalez might have fit better into your OF for either of those two picks. I like the Carp pick as I think you got a great value based on the numbers that he put up last year, but with his injury history I probably would have handcuffed that pick with a SP in the 7th or 8th round. I like Bell, Shields and Suzuki where you were able to get them in this draft.



Thanks for listening. I'll try to get to drafters 8-15 tomorrow.

[Glenneration X]

Originally posted by Philly Phantom:

Hey, I just wanted to post some thoughts on the first 10 rounds of the draft. Take them for the 2 cents they are probably worth



Magner - I like the Pujols/Sizemore combo to start. It's probably a little power heavy but I thought you did a nice job of balancing it with the speed of Victorino. I like the Halladay pickup and the fact that you didn't feel the need to go back to the SP well again soon. After picking up your ace you waited a number of rounds before supplementing him with Kershaw. I like the upside picks of Beckham, Cabrera and Coghlan and I like the position versatility that those picks give your team going forward. Beckham will gain 2b elig early in the year, it sounds like Coghlan will gain 2b if Uggla is dealt, and Cabrera already has 2b and SS. Solid power/speed balance though you might be slightly light on the power at the end of the 10th. I think you are solid BA wise with Pujols, ACab and Coghlan as anchors. I like the Nathan pick and the balance of 3 pitchers to 7 hitters. The only pick I disagree with is G Jones. I think you reached picking him at 90 (ADP of around 105 from a limited number of drafts). The power seems legit, but I don't see the speed returning as he only ever stole double digits in one other year (though 14 at Indy this year). The average also looks like it's going to drop as his lifetime minors avg is 258. He's 28, didn't come in as a top prospect, and I think he has a good chance to bust.



Sheets - I really like the first 5 rounds of this draft as you took care of 2b, SS and 3 OF slots with versatile power/speed/avg guys. I like that you went back to back SP picks with Hamels and Cain. Since you waited awhile to get your first SP, I thought you made a good move by coming back to it immediately and getting Cain. I like that Cain improved his BB/9 and K/BB but his K/9 dropped and his FIP was a full run above his ERA. The ADP value seems about right at 92 but I might have picked another SP here. I like McLouth as a player but I'm not sure he fits your team at this point. A 4th OF seems fairly redundant at this point and I might have tried to find a corner IF (though looking at it the pantry is pretty bare at this point for a corner IF at fair ADP value). I'm not a huge Burnett fan because of his inconsistency from game to game but the K's are there so that is always helpful. You filled a need nicely with Qualls. Looking back at it you probably needed to move earlier on filling atleast one corner IF spot. You have a really nice OF but a substantial hole at the corners of your IF.



Carlson - I like the ARod, Roberts, Morneau start. I'm a little nervous about Morneau and his back but at 33 that's a nice value (as I have his ADP calculated at 28 right now). Santana, Gallardo, and Lackey are a nice top three but I think there's a little too much injury risk there for my liking. Santana is coming off of an injury last year and both Lackey (10th) and Gallardo (18th) were in the top 20 for avg pitcher abuse points per start. I like the Rios and Pence pickups as solid power/speed OF's but the combo of Dunn and Rios could have a negative pull on your avg if Rios does not rebound. On the plus side Rios BABIP of 277 was well below the numbers he posted in previous years. Soriano was a nice pickup in the 10th.



Ambrosius - I like the start with Braun, Holliday and Greinke. Your OF obviously has a really nice start here and while being slightly light on the SB side to start, could still be fine. You are banking fairly heavily on a Berk rebound and I'm not really sure if it's coming. His BA was down last year without a heavy downturn in BABIP, runs and RBI's were down significantly, and his OPS was down 80 points. The RBI and run numbers can somewhat be attributed to the lineup around him but with Houston being hit with some fairly heavy monetary restraints, I don't really see that changing. Figgins was a nice fit for you with all of the power that you had drafted above him but you are certainly behind in SB after the first 10 rounds. Drafting Lopez and not getting many SB from 2b leaves less places for you to gain SB numbers. I like how you waited after getting Greinke to get your 2nd SP (Weaver). Greinke, Weaver and Papelbon make a nice start to your staff and while I think you will see some regression from Posada, getting him at 147 was solid.



Semsel - An interesting start to the draft as you fill your 2b and MI positions first. Both guys are solid power/speed guys which will be good. I like the Youk pick in the 3rd because it gives you some versatility with 1b and 3b. McCann is obviously solid and you can wait awhile to get your 2nd catcher now. I like the back to back pitchers, since you waited awhile to get your SP but I'm starting to worry about what you are going to be able to get in the OF. While Lester and Beckett are solid, they have both thrown a pretty good amount of innings the last couple of years between season innings and long playoff runs, they were rated 20th and 21st in avg pitcher abuse points per start last year. I'm not a huge fan of the Fuentes/Wagner RP tandem or the Bourn/Kubel OF.



Sporer - So you went really heavy on hitting here and filled a number of holes. I like the Kemp, Phillips, Zim, Beltran (who I think was a really solid value at this point in the draft) start. I know there weren't many options at 1b at this point but I think the Butler pick and then subsequent Ethier and Drew picks really put you behind the 8 ball with pitching. I like the Soria and Valverde combo for your bullpen but I think you are too far behind at this point in SP. Everyone else has atleast 2 (except for Cincotta who has Cliff Lee). Finding guys with a high enough k/9 at this point is going to be difficult. I'll be interested to see who you were able to fill into your rotation with picks 11-23.



Wiegert - Crawford and Reynolds are the perfect one/two combo to start you off strong with both power and speed. I'm hoping that the combo of Crawford and Jeter will be able to balance Reynolds avg (which I see regressing next year). D Lee fit in nicely at 1b for you. The Hill and Ibanez picks put you in a slightly difficult place as far as SB are concerned. You have two great guys for SB in Crawford and Jeter but I think you missed out on some balanced players (both power/speed) by taking Hill and Ibanez. I think McCutchen, Hunter, or C. Gonzalez might have fit better into your OF for either of those two picks. I like the Carp pick as I think you got a great value based on the numbers that he put up last year, but with his injury history I probably would have handcuffed that pick with a SP in the 7th or 8th round. I like Bell, Shields and Suzuki where you were able to get them in this draft.



Thanks for listening. I'll try to get to drafters 8-15 tomorrow. Interesting read Philly.....



Welcome to the boards & I look forward to more of your posts.



Glenn

[Philly Phantom]

Here are the comments on drafters 8 - 15.



Kessenich - I like the MCab/Reyes start because it pairs a heavy power guy with a heavy speed guy. Bay was also a solid complement to these guys because he adds a little speed to the mix (10-15 SB) and solid power. His ADP in the drafts I've seen is 32 so having him at 38 was solid. I'll be interested to see what signing with the Mets does to his value. Anybody have any opinions on this? Verlander is the pitcher I'm probably most worried about going into next year. Leyland has worked him really hard the last two years as he was in the top 5 of avg pitcher abuse points per game in each of those years. I like the upside of Hanson and McCutchen a lot going into next year so I like each of these picks. I don't like the trends over the last three years with KRod. A rising BB/9, (4.5, 4.5, 5), WHIP (1.25, 1.29, 1.31) which wasn't pretty to begin with, and a a dropping K rate (12.0, 10.1, 9.7) does not bode well for future success. I think the saves will be there but the peripheral stats won't be pretty. With Chipper and Weeks you are taking a big chance with injuries. I think Martin was a solid value where you got him. Overall, nice balance with 2 SP, a closer, 1b, 2b, SS, 3b, C, 2 OF.



Trachtman - With Howard and AGon you have a really solid base with the power numbers. Granderson adds some speed in the third with the understanding that you are behind in SB right now and have to make up some ground. I think Granderson's numbers improve hitting in that ballpark. Felix at 4 and Johnson at 6 are a really nice 1, 2 combo at fair value. I'm slightly worried about the fact that Johnson doubled his innings from 100 to 200 over the last two years, but it seems that the Marlins were careful with him at the end of the year and didn't abuse him too badly. Young in the 5th seems early to me though I don't have a ton of ADP to back this up. I like Cargo in the 7th as a steady #2 for you next year but I don't see the SB repeating as he hasn't shown double digit SB wheels since Lancaster. Uggla supports the strong power base that you already have and Pierre certainly helps the shortage of SB. I'll be interested to see if you are able to come up with some save potential later or if you are looking entirely to the ww for that.



Houston - Like the comment on Kessenich's team, I really like the power speed combo provided by Tex and Ichiro. You also have a really nice start in BA as well. Choo provides a nice complement in the 3rd as he provides power and speed. I am slightly worried about him for next year. He was able to maintain a steady pre/post OPS by improving his BA by 20 points in the second half, but he walked 54 times in the first half and 24 in the second half. It's atleast something to keep an eye on. I'm not a huge fan of the Carlos Lee/Manny Ramirez picks back to back as I think that both are in the decline phase of their careers (they are also redundant at this point as 3rd and 4th OF). I understand that depth in the OF this year seems hard to come by but I think these picks left you thin in other places. Ramirez is solid and I like the power speed combo here but his slugging percentage dropped from a respectable 415 in the first half to 354 in the second half. That doesn't bode too well for him. Bailey was flat out dominant last year and I like this pick. Great WHIP, ERA and K/9 numbers make the future bright. I like the Bruce pick as there isn't much IF available at good value by this point. Garza and Jurrjens are solid but I would feel a lot better about them as a 2 and 3 instead of 1 and 2. Garza threw a lot of pitches last year and was 15th highest among starters for highest abuse per start. Jurrjens had an FIP about a run higher than his ERA so don't expect a repeat performance there. A 3.7-3.8 ERA is definitely nothing to sneeze at though. Overall, solid, but a Cliff Lee or Josh Johnson pickup in the 5th or 6th could have really helped the pitching staff.



Cincotta - Nice start here again with a good amount of power and average between Fielder and Votto. I see slight avg regression for both players but the power level should maintain. You tie up the corner IF nicely here so I'll be interested to see how you are able to balance the rest of the draft. Werth provides some speed in the 3rd which was needed and the low BA doesn't hurt too much because of the presence of Votto and Fielder. Cano in the 4th helps you to be very strong in avg, and also has solid HR and RBI numbers but he doesn't do much to address a shortcoming in SB coming out of the first three rounds. Lee is a nice SP anchor at this point in the draft. You have to like the move out of Philly and into Seattle. There is a ton of speed in that OF and there shouldn't be too many extra base hits dropping between those speedsters. There is a slight worry with him with his workload over the last two years and the extended Philly playoff run last year. Aramis fits in nicely at 3b though you always have to be worried about the injuries. The Weiters pick might have been a little early because I think he would have made it back to you in the 8th but he fills a hole. Quentin and Morgan provide pieces to the OF puzzle and Morgan adds some badly needed speed. Wilson fits in nicely in your bullpen. There is still some need for speed here and some more starting pitching as Lee is a nice start but I'll be interested to see what you plugged in behind him.



Zola pulled off the trifecta of 3b with his first three picks (Sandoval obviously slots in at 1st too). He really put a hurting on an already thin 3b crowd and it was interesting to see how others responded. He provided a good base for power and avg though was obviously lacking some in SB. Haren provided a solid pitching anchor for his rotation and the Hunter and Adam Jones combo added some needed speed. Hunter and Jones are obviously slightly weak as a 1/2 combo but with the corner IF bases already filled the OF seems solid. Bartlett filled in nicely here and while I don't see him repeating last years numbers I think 10-15 Hr's and 20 steals are easily reasonable. Span fills in nicely as a 3rd OF with good upside. I think that Peavy will see a regression in some of his numbers now that he can't pitch in PETCO every other start but to get him at this point seems to be a solid value as he probably has the most potential of any #2 drafted in this league. Cordero helps in the bullpen. Solid across the board here. If anything, the power numbers might be slightly light after those first 3 hitters. 2b might provide some problems but I think there's good balance here across the board.



Elfrink - Ellsbury, Rollins and Markakis gave you one heck of a start with SB. There is a shortage of power but we'll see how the draft progresses before judging that fully. Sabathia is a solid solid anchor for the staff and seems to be about right in terms of ADP. Pena was a nice fit here in the 5th as he provided the most power of anyone available at this point in the draft. Rivera is always solid and filled a hole in the 6th. I'm not a big fan of the Stewart pick in the 7th because I think the Pena/Stewart drag on your BA is going to be significant. If there was compensation early in your draft with an Ichiro or someone to counteract those low BA I would feel a lot better here. Vazquez is a solid two, but I'm interested to see how the move to the Yanks affects his value. Davis is a nice player but you hurt your power numbers here and I think you would have been better served to pick up Damon or another more balanced OF. I don't think you needed the extra speed. Interesting move with Marmol in the 10th as not many people have 2 closers at this point in the draft.



Upchurch - Heavy scarcity start as you get Tulo, Kinsler and VMart to start. Tulo seems to be a good value here as he seems to be going earlier in the 1st in most drafts. Solid power/speed start here with these three. Morales is a nice piece to the puzzle and should put up nice numbers next year. Broxton is a nice piece but I don't know if he was necessary here. I might have preferred to see an Ad. Jones or Ethier pick to help your OF. Wainwright, Jimenez and Bills provide a nice 1,2,3 punch for the rotation. Lots of good K upside here and young SP who could still show some more improvement and outproduce their position next year. I'm not as big on the Soriano and Damon picks, solid balance there with power and speed but I think you needed to jump a little earlier here to not put your OF at a fairly significant disadvantage.



Collette- An interesting move here going C, SP with the first two picks. Mauer at this point seems like a solid deal as he's going 5-10 in most

of the other drafts I've looked at. I'm still not sure if I would take that big of a chance on a catcher, even one as unbelievably talented as Mauer. I like Lind in the 3rd but you're at a fairly heavy speed disadvantage right now. Cruz at 46 seems too early as I've seen him go from 55-87 in 4 other drafts that I've looked at. I think you would have been better off filling one of your IF holes here (DLee, Morales, Cano, possibly Berk). I think you could have gotten Cruz when you came back in the 5th. I like Wandy for next year but I think with investing so heavily in Lincecum in the 2nd that this pick would have been better utilized in other places.

Kendrick fills a nice hole for you here but I think you jumped in too early on him. I saw him go 154 in another draft. Cuddyer is solid here and provides nice versatility with 1b/OF. Nolasco as a #3 is really nice. Street is a really solid closer for you but I think Prado went too early.



So there are my thoughts on the second half of the draft. Let me know what you think and thanks to Glen for his post.

[MadCow Sez]

Thanks for the outsider look Philly. Good luck in 2010

[Tom Kessenich]

Originally posted by Philly Phantom:

Here are the comments on drafters 8 - 15.



Kessenich - I like the MCab/Reyes start because it pairs a heavy power guy with a heavy speed guy. Bay was also a solid complement to these guys because he adds a little speed to the mix (10-15 SB) and solid power. His ADP in the drafts I've seen is 32 so having him at 38 was solid. I'll be interested to see what signing with the Mets does to his value. Anybody have any opinions on this? Verlander is the pitcher I'm probably most worried about going into next year. Leyland has worked him really hard the last two years as he was in the top 5 of avg pitcher abuse points per game in each of those years. I like the upside of Hanson and McCutchen a lot going into next year so I like each of these picks. I don't like the trends over the last three years with KRod. A rising BB/9, (4.5, 4.5, 5), WHIP (1.25, 1.29, 1.31) which wasn't pretty to begin with, and a a dropping K rate (12.0, 10.1, 9.7) does not bode well for future success. I think the saves will be there but the peripheral stats won't be pretty. With Chipper and Weeks you are taking a big chance with injuries. I think Martin was a solid value where you got him. Overall, nice balance with 2 SP, a closer, 1b, 2b, SS, 3b, C, 2 OF. Your thoughts tend to echo my own with the exception of K-Rod (more on him in a bit). I agree about Weeks. I'm not a big fan and wouldn't ordinarily draft him if I could help it but the talent at MI dries up quickly and there was nothing left on the board so I went with Weeks. The middle infield positions look to be the weaker this year than I can recall at any time in recent memory. That could place a premium on taking a MI sooner than usual given how little talent there is.



I'm big on Hanson this year so I'm tending to target him and take him ahead of some guys I may have ranked a little higher due to his upside. Same with McCutchen. I've been in around 10 drafts already (wow) and I've gotten Hanson several times. This was the first draft where I was able to get McCutchen.



I'm big on Reyes this year because I think the value is exceptional given his current ADP. There are obviously risks involved but if he can return even close to his past health, he has the potential to be a major value pick. That's not something you often get in the first 2-3 rounds of a draft. As far as K-Rod, his numbers last year didn't bother me. First off, it should have been expected that he wouldn't duplicate his 2008 success. Secondly, he was switching leagues. I like him because his value is declining so I don't have to reach for him and he's going to rack up the saves. His strikeout numbers are still good for a closer. I think he's going to be better than a lot of people believe at the present time.



Overall, I thought this was a pretty solid team. But the NFBC format is going to be VERY challening this year (it always is, but this year more so) because the talent at several positions tends to dry up quickly.

[bjoak]

Philly, how can you like everyone's start? Obviously, half of them are going to perform better than the other half.

[Schwks]

I love to see Reyes going from early to late 2nd round. 1) Reyes was far from setting the world on fire pre injury .278 2 11 rbi with an alarmingly low 18 runs in 147 abs. 2) Reyes has a history of hamstring injuries. Now that he has had surgery he will be even more vulnerable to them. 3) it concerns me that his leg injuries changed over the course of the year...he started with a muscle tear and then it moved to behind the knee, and then ultimately resulted in a hammy tear. The lack of clarity with respect to the injury is frightening. If his legs are even slightly questionable, his value is shot. I would be hard pressed to take him in any of the first few rounds. I can see a sceanrio wherein he returns to first round value, but even if he does, how much upside is there off of a 2nd round pick...Jimmy Rollins is a solid 2nd rounder and you expect 275 15 65 35 sbs and 100+ runs...how much more does REyes give you if he is healthy? And of course, as shown in 2003, 2004 and 2009, the downside is severe



To recap big downside with only one round of upside. I will happily let him slide on by, and as a Met fan, hope he returns value for those that took him.



Tom, since its just a mock, I dont think you take this as disrespect.

[Philly Phantom]

Originally posted by bjoak:

Philly, how can you like everyone's start? Obviously, half of them are going to perform better than the other half. bjoak,



You make a good point. I guess I could have been harder on the beginning of several teams' drafts. Out of curiousity, which three teams do you think came out of the first three rounds in the best shape and which three came out the worst?



Thanks

[rkulaski]

Originally posted by Philly Phantom:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

Philly, how can you like everyone's start? Obviously, half of them are going to perform better than the other half. bjoak,



You make a good point. I guess I could have been harder on the beginning of several teams' drafts. Out of curiousity, which three teams do you think came out of the first three rounds in the best shape and which three came out the worst?



Thanks [/QUOTE]Well, if you're just looking at a team's first 3 or 4 rds, most teams are going to look good on paper.