Winners/Losers

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 5:04 am

Ok, the first half of the Hot Stove League is kaput.

Let's look at some of the winners and losers:

Winners-

Randy Wolf- A three year contract to a pitcher that breaks down? A questionable contract from the Brewers, and in this economy, a clear win for Wolf.

Placido Polanco- A BIG win for Polanco. Three years at the tail end of his career in a great hitters park with a wonderful organization. Probably the biggest win of the Hot Stove League. If he bats second, his fantasy value takes a jump as well....at least this year.

Nick Johnson- If he would have signed with any other team than the Yankees or Red Sox, it would be a nothing signing, as is, a win for Johnson, and it makes him fantasy viable.

Billy Wagner and Justin Duchscherer- They both get one year contracts in leagues, and in Duchscherer's case, a team, that they are familiar with.

Losers-

Jason Bay- San Diego may have been the only place worse for him. His power suffers, not known for hitting long home runs, he goes from being a 30-38 home runs hitter to a 20-25 home runs hitter.

Boston Red Sox- The Sox usually come out ahead of the Yankees during the off season. Its what keeps them competitive against their bigger money friends. This year, they have improved their staff with Lackey, but their lineup still needs retooling. Ortiz and Lowell and Drew are clearly on the backside of their careers, as is Cameron who was signed to a two year contract. As of now, the Sox lineup would look like this:

1. Ellsbury

2. Pedroia

3. Martinez

4. Youkilis

5. Ortiz

6. Cameron

7. Drew/ Hermida

8. Kotchman/Lowell

9 Scutaro

The front four are formidable, 5-9 questionable. Even fantasy-wise, the first four hitters will be gone by the fourth round, everyone else will be there 10 rounds later.

The Astro's-

Pedro Feliz and Brandon Lyon...Let me repeat

Pedro Feliz and Brandon Lyon

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:05 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Jason Bay- San Diego may have been the only place worse for him. His power suffers, not known for hitting long home runs, he goes from being a 30-38 home runs hitter to a 20-25 home runs hitter.

I haven't seen this report. Are you breaking the news?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:08 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Jason Bay- San Diego may have been the only place worse for him. His power suffers, not known for hitting long home runs, he goes from being a 30-38 home runs hitter to a 20-25 home runs hitter.

I haven't seen this report. Are you breaking the news? [/QUOTE]I saw where he was going to sign with the Mets pending a physical.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:08 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Jason Bay- San Diego may have been the only place worse for him. His power suffers, not known for hitting long home runs, he goes from being a 30-38 home runs hitter to a 20-25 home runs hitter.

I haven't seen this report. Are you breaking the news? [/QUOTE]I am, Shawn.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:13 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Jason Bay- San Diego may have been the only place worse for him. His power suffers, not known for hitting long home runs, he goes from being a 30-38 home runs hitter to a 20-25 home runs hitter.

I haven't seen this report. Are you breaking the news? [/QUOTE]I am, Shawn. [/QUOTE]Is your pick getting close in the slow draft and you need Bay to slide a couple of spots?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:28 am

You know I don't play that game.

You've been partial to Mets in the past, are you high on Bay?

How does the signing effect Bay in your mind?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:37 am

Bay is ranked nine in Fanball's magazine.

I would not have him in the top 15 after signing with the Mets.

By the way, our draft has not started yet.

If I pick Jason Bay before 15 other outfielders, I am asking Jules to get on the Boards and "Tell on me"

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:38 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

You know I don't play that game.

You've been partial to Mets in the past, are you high on Bay?

How does the signing effect Bay in your mind? I probably won't own Bay this year. He will be respected and I will be shopping elsewhere when his name present itself.

Bay's probably a .275, 30, 100 player in my book with a few steals.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:40 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Bay is ranked nine in Fanball's magazine.

I would not have him in the top 15 after signing with the Mets.

By the way, our draft has not started yet.

If I pick Jason Bay before 15 other outfielders, I am asking Jules to get on the Boards and "Tell on me"

Now I remember...you draft where SIZE matters! Or was that you were anti Prince?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:42 am

Want to put a fifty down that he doesen't hit 30?

At my age, size is the least of my worries.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:45 am

I do love big guys till they hit that 30 years of age mark.

Prince is good to go, CC is getting close to being too risky.

[ January 05, 2010, 07:30 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:46 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Want to put a fifty down that he doesen't hit 30?

At my age, size is the least of my worries. I'll pass on the fifty as it might force me to draft him. I just have him in the 30 range...plus or minus a couple.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 6:49 am

According to Tony Maz of the 98.5, Bay and the Sox had an agreement in place at the All-Star break, but then it fell thru. Both sides kind of backed off and the Sox saw something in his medical reports to concern them to some extent (They did end up offering 60mil for 4 years, but that could have been a I know you'll reject this but I need to make this offer for the fans). In any event if there is an issue in his medical records and he is headed to the Mess, what are the chances the issue re-surfaces covering all that ground in left. Also the injury karma with the Mess is not something I'd want to bet on.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 7:06 am

Was there a report on what part of the body was the problem?

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 7:07 am

I think knee. This will be filed in my ask Rick Wilton file.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 7:20 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

I think knee. This will be filed in my ask Rick Wilton file. Is the Dead Poets advisory committee still intact?

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 7:24 am

Stronger than ever.

Kent and I are teaming up on an auction team. Dan is taking his road show to the Midwest.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 7:43 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

I think knee. This will be filed in my ask Rick Wilton file. Is the Dead Poets advisory committee still intact? [/QUOTE]I feel as old as Robin Williams looks.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 7:47 am

Although we didn't talk much last year, Shawn. I will miss our talks and thoughts this year.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 7:55 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Although we didn't talk much last year, Shawn. I will miss our talks and thoughts this year. So you are driving the 57 Chevy to Chicago in prime snow storm weather?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 7:59 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Although we didn't talk much last year, Shawn. I will miss our talks and thoughts this year. So you are driving the 57 Chevy to Chicago in prime snow storm weather? [/QUOTE]With the American Tourister luggage strapped to the top!

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 8:46 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Want to put a fifty down that he doesen't hit 30?

At my age, size is the least of my worries. Hmm... I wonder what David Wright's projections for Bay would be if Bay signs up with the Mets.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 9:40 am

Originally posted by rkulaski:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Want to put a fifty down that he doesen't hit 30?

At my age, size is the least of my worries. Hmm... I wonder what David Wright's projections for Bay would be if Bay signs up with the Mets. [/QUOTE]If you call Eddie Gillis, he has Wright down for 12. His homeruns barely make it of the fence! Bay might be good for 17!

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 9:41 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Although we didn't talk much last year, Shawn. I will miss our talks and thoughts this year. So you are driving the 57 Chevy to Chicago in prime snow storm weather? [/QUOTE]With the American Tourister luggage strapped to the top! [/QUOTE]I can see the bumper stickers on the bag!

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Jan 02, 2010 10:09 am

Originally posted by rkulaski:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Want to put a fifty down that he doesen't hit 30?

At my age, size is the least of my worries. Hmm... I wonder what David Wright's projections for Bay would be if Bay signs up with the Mets. [/QUOTE]While I am not the biggest proponent of "park factors", Citi Field was actually FAVORABLE for RHB in its inaugural season inflating them 10% over a neutral park.

Plus since Fenway has added the .406 club, the structure behind home plate, the winds have changed, causing Fenway to DEFLATE HR as compared to a neutral park. It is still overall a hitter's park, just saying HR totals are actually depressed.

That aside, even the worst park only deflates HR by 30%. Take a 30 HR guy in a neutral park and assume he hits 15 at home, 15 on the road. The WORST park makes that 15 to be 10 or 11, putting the "projection" at 25 or 26.