Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 10:48 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

The verdict:

Avg .267

HR 6

RBI 40

Runs 72

SB 33

so the rangers moved young to 3B for a .267 hitter with 6 hr and 40 rbi AND a .968 fielding %. remember his glove was supposed to be why he was playing in the majors.

in the end, the rangers were more stubborn than i thought they would be. i have a feeling that it woulda benefit the organization more if andrus spent most of last year in AAA. [/QUOTE]LOL... I knew you would not answer my question and then deflect it to something else.

Andrus has more range than Young did and he helped the TEX ERA go down 0.99 in one year and net 8 more wins.

But this thread is about BS projections. All I wanted to point out is that yours was no different than what you say Ron did with those guys you mentioned.

Carry on. Good Luck this year.

I'll add that anyone's projections will always have a ton way off. Ron even goes into great length to explain that. I agree that position errors are not good at all.

[ January 23, 2010, 04:58 PM: Message edited by: JohnZ ]

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 10:53 am

Originally posted by JohnZ:

LOL... I knew you would not answer my question and then deflect it to something else.

Andrus has more range than Young did and he helped the TEX ERA go down 0.99 in one year and net 8 more wins.

But this thread is about BS projections. All I wanted to point out is that yours was no different than what you say Ron did with those guys you mentioned.

Carry on. Good Luck this year. i did answer it. the rangers were more stubborn than i thought. his defense as i mentioned b4 was not what they had hoped, but they stuck with him warts and all. probably to their detriment.

my projections (and i believe i had andrus for sb in the low 20's last year) use LOGIC as the foundation, not stubborn decisions. i had him being demoted at some point last year.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 10:56 am

Originally posted by JohnZ:

I'll add that anyone's projections will always have a ton way off. Ron even goes into great length to explain that. of course, but the ones that are off because a wrong PT% was used are the worst.

ron thinks tulo is in for a down year this. i respect that because he is basing it on his skill set, not projecting Tulo for only 400 at bats.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 10:58 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Todd,

Always the gentleman and always makes sense.

BUT...

I will bet you a beer on their next iteration the numbers come down as the jump (15+) just looks like too much for the venue change, even with the excellent points you bring out. I cannot remember any other player getting that kind of love from changing ballparks.

BTW, which Auction championship time did you decide to join? Let's just say I respectfully decline your bet - sometimes it takes a little time to subjectively massage an objective output.

That said, when I look over what my site's little black box spits out, I won't change the result just because it looks odd and I am afraid we'll be called out on the NFBC boards

I need a reason and will usually discuss it with my fellow staff members.

Why invest research and time into a model if you are going to override it frequently?

As for the NFBC, I am unable to do any overnight traveling for the foreseeable future, so I am playing things by ear. Like I told Greg, things will be just fine without me, though it was painful to see the AL and NL auctions fill up

But right now, other people need me more than the NFBC.

This also means I won't be stalking Ron around the country for the Spring First Pitch Forum tour, but family first.

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 11:10 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

LOL... I knew you would not answer my question and then deflect it to something else.

Andrus has more range than Young did and he helped the TEX ERA go down 0.99 in one year and net 8 more wins.

But this thread is about BS projections. All I wanted to point out is that yours was no different than what you say Ron did with those guys you mentioned.

Carry on. Good Luck this year. i did answer it. the rangers were more stubborn than i thought. his defense as i mentioned b4 was not what they had hoped, but they stuck with him warts and all. probably to their detriment.

my projections (and i believe i had andrus for sb in the low 20's last year) use LOGIC as the foundation, not stubborn decisions. i had him being demoted at some point last year. [/QUOTE]How is more range and more wins being something that needs to be changed?

How are they stubborn if they demoted Davis during the season?

They were a better team last year even with Elvis' errors, which I think you are "stubbornly"

placing too much negative value on. His range and 64 more put outs than Young had in '08 improved the staff, leading to more wins. His speed helped extend innings for the top of the lineup to take advantage of. The net effect was a team that was better than '08. And I know first hand that they made that decision because in the long run, it would be best for him and the team.

If he wound up hitting .245 or lower, I would buy your argument that he should have been in the minors, but he hit .253 pre-AS, and .280 post AS.

This is why they made the decision they did. They KNOW he has the skills and makeup to handle the challenge. This goes beyond crunching numbers, it goes to the mental make up of the kid.

[ January 23, 2010, 05:12 PM: Message edited by: JohnZ ]

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 11:43 am

if he's there in round 9, and i need a SS and some SB's, i'm all over him... :rolleyes:

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 11:50 am

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

if he's there in round 9, and i need a SS and some SB's, i'm all over him... :rolleyes: $lut !

[ January 23, 2010, 05:58 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:03 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

if he's there in round 9, and i need a SS and some SB's, i'm all over him... :rolleyes: $lut ! [/QUOTE]shawn, i CANNOT believe you called me a $lut!

AGAIN

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:03 pm

Originally posted by JohnZ:

This is why they made the decision they did. They KNOW he has the skills and makeup to handle the challenge. This goes beyond crunching numbers, it goes to the mental make up of the kid. sure, they know he had the skills, but they missed on davis having skills. yep, got it. davis was another huge miss for the shandleites last year. thanks for reminding me. furcal too.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:04 pm

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

if he's there in round 9, and i need a SS and some SB's, i'm all over him... :rolleyes: i hope not!

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 12:10 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

if he's there in round 9, and i need a SS and some SB's, i'm all over him... :rolleyes: i hope not! [/QUOTE]GG, are you saying i shouldn't take him in 9, or you hope he's not there for me in 9?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 1:03 pm

GG, why do I have a record of you taking Andrus in round 12 of a mock draft?

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 1:20 pm

The HQ is like going to Red Lobster when you want Italian food. It's convenient, you know the format and it satisfys your basic hunger - but do you expect it to be good ???

Ron doesn't even play the game :rolleyes: , right Walla? HQ is for suckas.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 1:36 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

The HQ is like going to Red Lobster when you want Italian food. It's convenient, you know the format and it satisfys your basic hunger - but do you expect it to be good ???

Ron doesn't even play the game :rolleyes: , right Walla? HQ is for suckas. Kj, don't sugar coat it, tell us how you really think..

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 1:58 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

GG, why do I have a record of you taking Andrus in round 12 of a mock draft? My Order Can Kangaroo.

see the first four words for my answer...

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 2:12 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

This is why they made the decision they did. They KNOW he has the skills and makeup to handle the challenge. This goes beyond crunching numbers, it goes to the mental make up of the kid. sure, they know he had the skills, but they missed on davis having skills. yep, got it. davis was another huge miss for the shandleites last year. thanks for reminding me. furcal too. [/QUOTE]Forgot about C Davis who had an adp of somewhere in the 4th rd last year from nfbc satellite adp data! Wonder if Shandler had anything to do with that.

As for Cahill, my issue is not only the wins but that he's projected for 2 more wins (14 to 12) than B Anderson in the print edition. Anderson is projected for nearly 30 more innings pitched and an an era around 3.50 to Cahill's ~4.50. I'm not seeing the reason why Cahill is projected for more wins than his teammate.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 2:13 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

This is why they made the decision they did. They KNOW he has the skills and makeup to handle the challenge. This goes beyond crunching numbers, it goes to the mental make up of the kid. sure, they know he had the skills, but they missed on davis having skills. yep, got it. davis was another huge miss for the shandleites last year. thanks for reminding me. furcal too. [/QUOTE]Forgot about C Davis who had an adp of somewhere in the 4th rd last year from nfbc satellite adp data! Wonder if Shandler had anything to do with that.

As for Cahill, my issue is not only the wins but that he's projected for 2 more wins (14 to 12) than B Anderson in the print edition. Anderson is projected for nearly 30 more innings pitched and an an era around 3.50 to Cahill's ~4.50. I'm not seeing the reason why Cahill is projected for more wins than his teammate.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 2:16 pm

Speaking of projections, I know the Prospectus comes out late but does anyone have any opinions on their projections?

RichV · Post by **RichV** » Sat Jan 23, 2010 5:56 pm

Originally posted by rkulaski:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by JohnZ:

This is why they made the decision they did. They KNOW he has the skills and makeup to handle the challenge. This goes beyond crunching numbers, it goes to the mental make up of the kid. sure, they know he had the skills, but they missed on davis having skills. yep, got it. davis was another huge miss for the shandleites last year. thanks for reminding me. furcal too. [/QUOTE]Forgot about C Davis who had an adp of somewhere in the 4th rd last year from nfbc satellite adp data! Wonder if Shandler had anything to do with that.

As for Cahill, my issue is not only the wins but that he's projected for 2 more wins (14 to 12) than B Anderson in the print edition. Anderson is projected for nearly 30 more innings pitched and an an era around 3.50 to Cahill's ~4.50. I'm not seeing the reason why Cahill is projected for more wins than his teammate. [/QUOTE]There's obviously a clitch in the Cahill projection. You can't be projected for 16 wins, with a 4.5 era and a 1.5 whip. Then look at the $ values. -1 and $1 in 5x5. However, even in the book, he's listed with 14 wins and $11, with the same horrible era and whip.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sun Jan 24, 2010 2:05 am

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

They're updated everyday. wow. i didn't even know that. in prior years, it was every friday. look at crane dropping the knowledge on GG!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sun Jan 24, 2010 2:57 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

As for the NFBC, I am unable to do any overnight traveling for the foreseeable future, so I am playing things by ear.

But right now, other people need me more than the NFBC. I am sure I speak for many when I say we hope you can make it, but first and foremost hope everything on the home front works out to the best possible outcome!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Jan 24, 2010 3:33 am

Originally posted by RichV:

There's obviously a clitch in the Cahill projection. You can't be projected for 16 wins, with a 4.5 era and a 1.5 whip. Then look at the $ values. -1 and $1 in 5x5. However, even in the book, he's listed with 14 wins and $11, with the same horrible era and whip. Derek Lowe- 15 wins, 4.67 era, 1.52 whip last year.

Projections, schmojections!

It could happen with Cahill. It happened with Marquis last year. It could be Mike Pelfrey this year. Nobody really knows and that's the rub.

But since Shandler and baseball hq picked Cahill for excessive wins, he'll probably be moved up on lists that use Shandler as a grading tool. Most likely, bad for the Shandlerites, good for the rest.

As for Shandler, the NFBC Board is talking about his projections (again), and for him, that is not a bad thing.

RichV · Post by **RichV** » Sun Jan 24, 2010 4:54 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by RichV:

There's obviously a clitch in the Cahill projection. You can't be projected for 16 wins, with a 4.5 era and a 1.5 whip. Then look at the $ values. -1 and $1 in 5x5. However, even in the book, he's listed with 14 wins and $11, with the same horrible era and whip. Derek Lowe- 15 wins, 4.67 era, 1.52 whip last year.

Projections, schmojections!

It could happen with Cahill. It happened with Marquis last year. It could be Mike Pelfrey this year. Nobody really knows and that's the rub.

But since Shandler and baseball hq picked Cahill for excessive wins, he'll probably be moved up on lists that use Shandler as a grading tool. Most likely, bad for the Shandlerites, good for the rest.

As for Shandler, the NFBC Board is talking about his projections (again), and for him, that is not a bad thing. [/QUOTE]I didn't mean to say it can't happen. Wins are hard enough to project. To try to pick which mediocre pitcher is going to win 15+ plus seems to borderline on insane. Might as well throw darts at all the 4.5+ era/1.45whip starters with a safe starting gig and pick wins that way.

I've been a Shandler reader for a while. Always loved his analysis. There's a lot on his site. You're not going to agree with all of it unless you're just following like sheep. There's great info there and I use a lot of it. His projections are not one of the reasons I subscribe. His data, charts and articles help me immensely in putting together my projections. I always considered HQ a thinking site, not a site to "read and follow".

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sun Jan 24, 2010 5:06 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

GG, why do I have a record of you taking Andrus in round 12 of a mock draft? My Order Can Kangaroo.

see the first four words for my answer... [/QUOTE]I would say this kind of comment calls into question your ability to play in a mock draft. The idea is that you evaluate players and take them in a fair round in an effort to build a team that would contend in a real league. You might not throw your sleepers out there or use a strategy that you wouldn't plan to repeat in a normal league, but you were taking a guy you don't like in a round you don't believe he belongs in. That goes against everything you are meant to be doing and is the worst kind of disinformation.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sun Jan 24, 2010 5:24 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

I would say this kind of comment calls into question your ability to play in a mock draft. The idea is that you evaluate players and take them in a fair round in an effort to build a team that would contend in a real league. You might not throw your sleepers out there or use a strategy that you wouldn't plan to repeat in a normal league, but you were taking a guy you don't like in a round you don't believe he belongs in. That goes against everything you are meant to be doing and is the worst kind of disinformation. unless i'm mistaken, andrus adp in the early drafts is either 9th or 10th round. how is me taking him in the 12th not legit????????

ya, i don't believe he will steal 41 bases or whatever shandler has him for, but he DOES have value at some point.