Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!

Potter
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Post by Potter » Sun Jan 24, 2010 5:33 am

ADP for Elvis is currently early to mid 12th round.

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Glenneration X
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Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!

Post by Glenneration X » Sun Jan 24, 2010 5:37 am

Ahhhh....Gekko being a magnet for controversy again....

like longer days, warmer temps, kids playing outside, and girls wearing short skirts....

all signs that my favorite season is fast approaching....



I smell spring in the air... .

Baseball must be right around the corner.



Glenn

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Gekko
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Post by Gekko » Sun Jan 24, 2010 6:08 am

Originally posted by Potter:

ADP for Elvis is currently early to mid 12th round. NOT in pay drafts. i have many results

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Post by The Mighty Men » Sun Jan 24, 2010 6:23 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Potter:

ADP for Elvis is currently early to mid 12th round. NOT in pay drafts. i have many results [/QUOTE]How did you get many results? From baseball colleagues sending results of their drafts to you?
Who is this, robed in splendor, striding forward in the greatness of his strength? “It is I, proclaiming victory, mighty to save.” Isaiah 63:1

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Post by Gekko » Sun Jan 24, 2010 6:30 am

Originally posted by The Mighty Men:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Potter:

ADP for Elvis is currently early to mid 12th round. NOT in pay drafts. i have many results [/QUOTE]How did you get many results? From baseball colleagues sending results of their drafts to you?
[/QUOTE]BFBD - birth, fantasy baseball, death

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Post by The Mighty Men » Sun Jan 24, 2010 9:15 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by The Mighty Men:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Potter:

ADP for Elvis is currently early to mid 12th round. NOT in pay drafts. i have many results [/QUOTE]How did you get many results? From baseball colleagues sending results of their drafts to you?
[/QUOTE]BFBD - birth, fantasy baseball, death
[/QUOTE]You must have known exactly where I was going with this. You saw the trap coming, didn't you?
Who is this, robed in splendor, striding forward in the greatness of his strength? “It is I, proclaiming victory, mighty to save.” Isaiah 63:1

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Gekko
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Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!

Post by Gekko » Sun Jan 24, 2010 9:58 am

Originally posted by The Mighty Men:

You must have known exactly where I was going with this. You saw the trap coming, didn't you? you came with a mouse trap when you needed a Great White Trap

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Gekko
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Post by Gekko » Fri Feb 12, 2010 12:15 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

I know there are plenty of Shandler readers out there, but there are plenty of "projection" that make very little sense to me. Let me list some...



1. J.J. Hardy with 599 at bats (more than Ellsbury). of course all of Hardy's stats are inflated based on 599 at bats.



2. Gardner with 47sb



3. Andrus with 41sb



4. Trevor Cahill with the 7th most wins in the majors this year with 16 Update...HQ musta read my post. Their new totals...

1. J.J. Hardy with 504 at bats (MINUS 95AB) :eek:

2. Gardner with 34sb (MINUS 13SB) :eek:

3. Andrus with 41sb (no change YET)

4. Trevor Cahill with 6 wins (MINUS 10 wins) :eek: :eek:



Can't get anything past me boyz. Sorry. I am the ruler of fantasy baseball land :rolleyes:

GOD Loves You
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Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!

Post by GOD Loves You » Fri Feb 12, 2010 12:48 pm

Mark, for someone who has a such a disdain for Shandler, you sure do reference/quote him often.

I think you secretly have a crush on the man.

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Post by GOD Loves You » Fri Feb 12, 2010 12:50 pm

BTW, I agree with Dan, ALL projections are B.S........simply an act of futility.

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Post by sportsbettingman » Fri Feb 12, 2010 1:43 pm

For those who laugh at projections...what do you do while drafting?



"Well...looks like I'm light on runs and strikeouts now..."



...based on what?



If you are targeting a certain number range for each category...how are you double checking how close you are without projections?



Inaccurate as they may be...they are simply a ruler...nothing more.
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."

~Albert Einstein

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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Feb 12, 2010 1:46 pm

Lance, you can't look at a team and know what that team needs, without numbers that somebody made up beside them?
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Post by Hells Satans » Fri Feb 12, 2010 1:49 pm

Shandler, PECOTA, CHONE....they all use similar projection systems for hiters. The main variable is playing time, which is anyone's guess in February, and requires your judgment.



PECOTA has its players it loves more than Shandler (Kinsler, Tulo, Hamilton, Polano) and Shandler has its players it loves more than PECOTA (Kendrick, Derrek Lee, Youk, Lind).



If anything, Shandler overestimates power numbers. PECOTA has ANdrus for 36 steals. Chone had 30, but in only 436 ABs.



The main difference are at the margins. They basically agree.

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Post by sportsbettingman » Fri Feb 12, 2010 1:55 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Lance, you can't look at a team and know what that team needs, without numbers that somebody made up beside them? I can ballpark their lacking categories, yes.



I'm just saying without your own, a magazines, Shandlers, whomevers projections...you could end up quite heavy on some categories and light on others had you just "gut-ballparked" where you sat.



I guess it all is in the subconscious by draft day, (as I don't use a laptop, nor add ups actual numbers)...and there are zero stats earned until game #1 in played...but at least you have a tool (post draft) to see more clearly how lacking you are in certain categories in your imagination.



If I waited until actual stats start piling up...I could be a few weeks behind the eightball had I used some projection based on past production, teamates, age, etc. to try and fill my teams voids more quickly.



[ February 12, 2010, 08:06 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."

~Albert Einstein

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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:39 pm

We can pretty much make projections for magazines. A guy like Bartlett has a breakout year, no magazine projects that he'll match or exceed those numbers. The projected numbers for Bartlett becomes between what he did last year and what was anticipated before last year.





Opposite holds true for a bad year. David Wrights projections will also be between last year and what we were used to.





Everbody else is "projected" to have same types of numbers unless traded, a new sign, etc. Do we need Shandler or Fanball or Pecota to tell us?

Even our own projections are silly. Our bias will get in the way. A personal like, a home team, somebody that won a league for you, inside information.



Three weeks into the season, we have 6 new players from faab. Day to day management becomes the priority and projections are forgotten.
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Post by DOUGHBOYS » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:42 pm

Lance, when Reyes went down last year, did you compute stolen bases loss, or replace Reyes with the most viable player or lineup?
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Post by Glenneration X » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:54 pm

Projections are just interpretations....

whether bought from Shandler, Prospectus, or a Wiseguy,

whether provided for free by Chone, Zips, or the Monkey,

whether read on ESPN, Yahoo, CBS, Fanball ;) , or even an outdated magazine.



Nowadays, they all use the same stats, indicators, & trends, they just might see something a bit differently than the next guy.

The days of Bill James seeing what noone else saw are long over.



Its our job to take this same information now available to all of us and make our own interpretations. All these sites do is take all this raw data and put it into formats that are a little easier for the rest of us to digest and/or understand....thus their projections.

Even Shandler claims projections are just a guide and not an exact science.



What I find funny is all those that mock Shandler, BP, whomever and protray anyone who reads their stuff as sheep sure seem to be able to quote their projections and updates by the minute.

I wonder if they got their subscriptions as a gift?



Glenn

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Post by Gekko » Fri Feb 12, 2010 2:57 pm

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

Mark, for someone who has a such a disdain for Shandler, you sure do reference/quote him often.

I think you secretly have a crush on the man. disdain for shandler??? i believe in some of his fundamental tactics. i disagree with others. i'm simply pointing out that they have people coming up with playing time estimates that are OVERINFLATED for many players. quality control seems to be at a minimum.

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Post by Gekko » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:05 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

For those who laugh at projections...what do you do while drafting?



"Well...looks like I'm light on runs and strikeouts now..."



...based on what?



If you are targeting a certain number range for each category...how are you double checking how close you are without projections?



Inaccurate as they may be...they are simply a ruler...nothing more. lance - so you are poo poo'ing a key foundation to my success. that's like me poo poo'ing michael phelps that his butterfly technique is poor. :eek:



you're damn right. as the draft goes on, i determine what categories i need to focus on.

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Post by sportsbettingman » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:10 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

For those who laugh at projections...what do you do while drafting?



"Well...looks like I'm light on runs and strikeouts now..."



...based on what?



If you are targeting a certain number range for each category...how are you double checking how close you are without projections?



Inaccurate as they may be...they are simply a ruler...nothing more. lance - so you are poo poo'ing a key foundation to my success. that's like me poo poo'ing michael phelps that his butterfly technique is poor. :eek:



you're damn right. as the draft goes on, i determine what categories i need to focus on.
[/QUOTE]How am I poo-pooing anything?



I used to (unsuccessfully) draft old school like my home league and win once every three years or so. Ever since I read how Childs targets certain numbers to hit the 75-80% range across the categories...I'm (unsuccessfully) used projections as an important tool until the games begin.
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."

~Albert Einstein

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Post by Gekko » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:12 pm

Originally posted by Glenneration X:

Its our job to take this same information now available to all of us and make our own interpretations. no, no, no. some of us do our own projections. i'd trust my projections over anyone else's because i know the time i put in. i just proved in this thread that there are some quality control problems at HQ. same with the other pay sites i imagine.



remember 2 years ago, HQ had a "glitch" in their projections that didn't even list Cueto in their projections. laughable

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Post by Gekko » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:15 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

For those who laugh at projections...what do you do while drafting?



"Well...looks like I'm light on runs and strikeouts now..."



...based on what?



If you are targeting a certain number range for each category...how are you double checking how close you are without projections?



Inaccurate as they may be...they are simply a ruler...nothing more. lance - so you are poo poo'ing a key foundation to my success. that's like me poo poo'ing michael phelps that his butterfly technique is poor. :eek:



you're damn right. as the draft goes on, i determine what categories i need to focus on.
[/QUOTE]How am I poo-pooing anything?



I used to (unsuccessfully) draft old school like my home league and win once every three years or so. Ever since I read how Childs targets certain numbers to hit the 75-80% range across the categories...I'm (unsuccessfully) used projections as an important tool until the games begin.
[/QUOTE]sorry - i misread your post. i thought YOU were poo poo'ing projections. musta been the formatting of your post that got me.



so you ARE a projection guy. good!

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Post by Glenneration X » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:19 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Glenneration X:

Its our job to take this same information now available to all of us and make our own interpretations. no, no, no. some of us do our own projections. i'd trust my projections over anyone else's because i know the time i put in. i just proved in this thread that there are some quality control problems at HQ. same with the other pay sites i imagine.



remember 2 years ago, HQ had a "glitch" in their projections that didn't even list Cueto in their projections. laughable
[/QUOTE]That's exactly what I'm saying Mark....its our job to take this same raw data and make our own interpretations.....ie projections.



Still you're getting the data from somewhere, I know you're a numbers guy.....and I know you're not just lookng at batting avg & whip. ;)



Glenn



[ February 12, 2010, 09:23 PM: Message edited by: Glenneration X ]

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Post by sportsbettingman » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:28 pm

On a side note...I've looked up quite a few (non-Mark Prior type) players and find that the general injury ravaged season is not two or three years long...it is usually solved during the off-season.



Thus there is a base for risk in taking a player coming off of an injury riddled season...as on average...they perform fairly well the following season at the discounted draft price.



There are a hand full of Howie Kendrick, Rickie Weeks, Mark Prior, etc types who never shake the injury bug...but in general...
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."

~Albert Einstein

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Post by Glenneration X » Fri Feb 12, 2010 3:35 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

On a side note...I've looked up quite a few (non-Mark Prior type) players and find that the general injury ravaged season is not two or three years long...it is usually solved during the off-season.



Thus there is a base for risk in taking a player coming off of an injury riddled season...as on average...they perform fairly well the following season at the discounted draft price.



There are a hand full of Howie Kendrick, Rickie Weeks, Mark Prior, etc types who never shake the injury bug...but in general... So you'll be drafting Sizemore, Reyes, Morneau, & Hamilton in your first five picks and using Santana, Webb, Slowey, Harden, & Wagner as your pitching corp? Good luck.... ;)

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