Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by Glenneration X:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

On a side note...I've looked up quite a few (non-Mark Prior type) players and find that the general injury ravaged season is not two or three years long...it is usually solved during the off-season.



Thus there is a base for risk in taking a player coming off of an injury riddled season...as on average...they perform fairly well the following season at the discounted draft price.



There are a hand full of Howie Kendrick, Rickie Weeks, Mark Prior, etc types who never shake the injury bug...but in general... So you'll be drafting Sizemore, Reyes, Morneau, & Hamilton in your first five picks and using Santana, Webb, Slowey, Harden, & Wagner as your pitching corp? Good luck.... [/QUOTE]I'm so non-risk averse...I'd happily go to war with that start, and use rounds 10 and on to draft the steady eddies!



Bring it on Glennard!

[Glenneration X]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by Glenneration X:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

On a side note...I've looked up quite a few (non-Mark Prior type) players and find that the general injury ravaged season is not two or three years long...it is usually solved during the off-season.



Thus there is a base for risk in taking a player coming off of an injury riddled season...as on average...they perform fairly well the following season at the discounted draft price.



There are a hand full of Howie Kendrick, Rickie Weeks, Mark Prior, etc types who never shake the injury bug...but in general... So you'll be drafting Sizemore, Reyes, Morneau, & Hamilton in your first five picks and using Santana, Webb, Slowey, Harden, & Wagner as your pitching corp? Good luck.... [/QUOTE]I'm so non-risk averse...I'd happily go to war with that start, and use rounds 10 and on to draft the steady eddies!



Bring it on Glennard! [/QUOTE]Psssst....I wouldn't mind having one or two of those guys on my team either.



You doing the Main this year Lance?



Glenn

[GOD Loves You]

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

For those who laugh at projections...what do you do while drafting?



Draft the players I want to build my team. I have a certain way I attack each individual draft; I don't need to have any projections in front of me to know what I am doing, I know beforehand.



I and many people who are successful at playing fantasy baseball(not claiming greatness myself ) can look at a certain player and give a ballpark figure on what they will "probably" achieve for the season.......but to actually sit down and create projections for every single player really is the ultimate example of futility.



28 HR's for so-and-so....really? That exact number? Not 26 or 29, 28, exactly? Like Dan said, almost every single projection is adding or subtracting a few from this stat category and taking an average of the past few years. Rarely do you see anything aggressive, unless it's from the next hot rookie.



Depending on how you look at it, there's 750-1280 players on MLB rosters, can you honestly tell me it's worth the time to sit down and forecast the future for each and every one? I understand why the media/websites do it, but individuals......

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

For those who laugh at projections...what do you do while drafting?



Draft the players I want to build my team. I have a certain way I attack each individual draft; I don't need to have any projections in front of me to know what I am doing, I know beforehand.



I and many people who are successful at playing fantasy baseball(not claiming greatness myself ) can look at a certain player and give a ballpark figure on what they will "probably" achieve for the season.......but to actually sit down and create projections for every single player really is the ultimate example of futility.



28 HR's for so-and-so....really? That exact number? Not 26 or 29, 28, exactly? Like Dan said, almost every single projection is adding or subtracting a few from this stat category and taking an average of the past few years. Rarely do you see anything aggressive, unless it's from the next hot rookie.



Depending on how you look at it, there's 750-1280 players on MLB rosters, can you honestly tell me it's worth the time to sit down and forecast the future for each and every one? I understand why the media/websites do it, but individuals...... [/QUOTE]OK...I'm sold!



I'll draft this guy who bats in the 2 hole for the Boston team...and this cat who cleans up for the Phillies...and now I'll take the ace of the Blue Jays... :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:



[ February 13, 2010, 02:30 AM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

[Gekko]

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

Depending on how you look at it, there's 750-1280 players on MLB rosters, can you honestly tell me it's worth the time to sit down and forecast the future for each and every one? I understand why the media/websites do it, but individuals...... i have projections for 386 offensive players. i then have another 50 or so that projections would do them a disservice so I just rank them individually.



as for pitchers, i'm still going through them.



doing projections allows me to look at each individual player for at least 5 min. allows me to see how the projected lineup will play out and where the player will be batting. and a whole lot more.

[GOD Loves You]

Lance, based on your For those who laugh at projections...what do you do while drafting? comment, I'm guessing you won't be selecting certain players like myself, you will be doing projections??



If what I posted is that hard to comprehend, I guess I see why people need Childs to post what numbers they should strive to attain. <----That truly deserves a bunch of :rolleyes: :rolleyes:



I'm curious, Lance, with YOUR method, how well have you done in the NFBC events......without a partner?



Mark, aren't there certain players, you spend time researching, who you "know" will never be on your roster or are you open to drafting anyone?

[Gekko]

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

Mark, aren't there certain players, you spend time researching, who you "know" will never be on your roster or are you open to drafting anyone? there are players i don't like to be sure, however if they slip far enough, i'd have to at least consider them.

[DoubleX]

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:



If what I posted is that hard to comprehend, I guess I see why people need Childs to post what numbers they should strive to attain. I don't understand how you can even post that with a straight face when the OA money winner last year has given credit to Childs and his numbers to target while drafting..



Maybe, just maybe, it is an enjoyable process for people to do projections?? I personally ballpark them but who cares if someone projects 27 homers while I think he will get 25+.



I actually enjoy reading and listening to people and how they prep for drafts without thinking "Thats the wrong way" ever entering my thoughts.

[rmurph3]

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

I know there are plenty of Shandler readers out there, but there are plenty of "projection" that make very little sense to me. Let me list some...



1. J.J. Hardy with 599 at bats (more than Ellsbury). of course all of Hardy's stats are inflated based on 599 at bats.



2. Gardner with 47sb



3. Andrus with 41sb



4. Trevor Cahill with the 7th most wins in the majors this year with 16 Update...HQ musta read my post. Their new totals...

1. J.J. Hardy with 504 at bats (MINUS 95AB)

2. Gardner with 34sb (MINUS 13SB)

3. Andrus with 41sb (no change YET)

4. Trevor Cahill with 6 wins (MINUS 10 wins)



Can't get anything past me boyz. Sorry. I am the ruler of fantasy baseball land :rolleyes: [/QUOTE]Or, the real explanation:



1. the Hudson signing shuffled the playing time picture in the MIN infield.

2. the Yanks signed Randy Winn, and that negatively impacts Gardner's playing time.

3. no change coming.

4. this had already been pointed out to us on the HQ boards before you posted (I think that was mentioned earlier in this thread), and we corrected it.



The point is this: playing time projections are fluid, especially at this time of year. We'll be continuing to refine the outlooks right through NFBC draft day, and beyond.



Ray Murphy

Managing Editor - BBHQ

[bjoak]

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

For those who laugh at projections...what do you do while drafting?



Draft the players I want to build my team. I have a certain way I attack each individual draft; I don't need to have any projections in front of me to know what I am doing, I know beforehand.



I and many people who are successful at playing fantasy baseball(not claiming greatness myself ) can look at a certain player and give a ballpark figure on what they will "probably" achieve for the season.......but to actually sit down and create projections for every single player really is the ultimate example of futility.



28 HR's for so-and-so....really? That exact number? Not 26 or 29, 28, exactly? Like Dan said, almost every single projection is adding or subtracting a few from this stat category and taking an average of the past few years. Rarely do you see anything aggressive, unless it's from the next hot rookie.



Depending on how you look at it, there's 750-1280 players on MLB rosters, can you honestly tell me it's worth the time to sit down and forecast the future for each and every one? I understand why the media/websites do it, but individuals...... [/QUOTE]Let me ask you a question: What is worth more--a guy who gets 20 homers and 10 steals or a guy with 10 homers and 20 steals? How about a guy with 40 saves vs. a guy with 17 wins? You can ballpark it but if you want to understand player values you need real numbers.



Going back to the example, if I project a guy with 20 homers, do I think that's what he'll absolutely hit? Of course not. But I need to do it for a few reasons. One is so that I have something to add. I'm going to target total numbers for my team. You can't add plus power and medium power. Nor can you add 20-30 home runs plus 20-30 home runs, but you can say 25 + 25 and know that you have around 50. Maybe it's really 40 or 60 but it is a way to estimate.



Getting back to that 25 that means 20-30. Let's say I have a guy who I think can get up over 25 but not quite hit 30. I know I might be wrong but that is my best guess. I'm not going to put him down for 25 just because you think I should have nice round numbers. I'm going to put him down for 27 or 28. My expectation is not that he'll hit exactly that but rather that he's just as likely to hit 25 as he is to hit 30, and also just as likely to hit 20 as he is to hit 35. If I put him down for 25 I'm saying he is as likely to hit 20 as he is to hit 30 and that is not a true representation of my thinking.



Once I have that number I put it together with my other numbers for the player and I can create a value for the guy. Some people do valuations in terms of $ values. Basically, you create a system in excel that can tell you the value of players even if they have completely different qualities. Excel doesn't understand plus power so I have to feed it a number. Now maybe this sounds pointless to you but even using numbers you'd find acceptable I will have a very good idea about which of Juan Pierre or Adam Dunn will be worth more next year. Will you? Really? Are you sure about that?



[ February 13, 2010, 12:04 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

[Gekko]

just looked at the projections again today...



AFTER I removed all of the free agents from the BBHQ projections, the remaining pitchers total 2,817 wins and 2,569 losses?



This is quite amusing since there will only be a total of 2,430 wins and losses this year (assuming a 162 game season for all teams).



So your Pitching projections are inflated by 387 wins and 139 losses (and again, this doesn't even count the stats you have for free agents pitchers FAN and FAA).



387 wins means you are adding the equivalent of 13 wins to each major league team's pitching staff.



[ February 13, 2010, 12:19 PM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

[Gekko]

Originally posted by rmurph3:

Or, the real explanation:



1. the Hudson signing shuffled the playing time picture in the MIN infield.

2. the Yanks signed Randy Winn, and that negatively impacts Gardner's playing time.

3. no change coming.

4. this had already been pointed out to us on the HQ boards before you posted (I think that was mentioned earlier in this thread), and we corrected it.



The point is this: playing time projections are fluid, especially at this time of year. We'll be continuing to refine the outlooks right through NFBC draft day, and beyond.



Ray Murphy

Managing Editor - BBHQ i admit, the andrus one is just a beef i have with HQ. i do expect him to come in under though.



the other "projections" i poo poo'd were ones ANYONE paying attention to baseball could have made when i did. THAT'S WHY I MADE THE PREDICTION HERE. me thinks you got some people asleep at the wheel.

[rmurph3]

Originally posted by Gekko:

just looked at the projections again today...



AFTER I removed all of the free agents from the BBHQ projections, the remaining pitchers total 2,817 wins and 2,569 losses?



This is quite amusing since there will only be a total of 2,430 wins and losses this year (assuming a 162 game season for all teams).



So your Pitching projections are inflated by 387 wins and 139 losses (and again, this doesn't even count the stats you have for free agents pitchers FAN and FAA).



387 wins means you are adding the equivalent of 13 wins to each major league team's pitching staff. You asked this a few weeks ago on the HQ boards, so you already know the answer. But since you raised the question here, I'll post the answer here too.



The following is posted at HQ, in the explanation of how our projections are created.





During the pre-season, the PT projections for batters who have definite full-time jobs should range between 80% and 100% of the available AB by position. Pitchers are handled similarly, with IP percentages run off total team IP. Part-time and bench players have more variability in those AB/IP figures. Players who will be battling it out in spring training for a roster spot are all given approximately the same AB/IP expectations so that we can adequately evaluate which ones have the better potential. Free agents are given optimal PT levels, with the assumption that their future role will be comparable to past history.



In handling playing time this way, any attempt to reconcile AB and IP on a global basis will result in a gross overstatement of team totals. This is by design, and will naturally improve as roles are firmed up as we get closer to Opening Day. Other touts, who "force" their projections into available playing time in order to create accurate Rotisserie values, are likely making arbitrary decisions about the sorting out of roles, and in the end, providing a less accurate view.

Oh, and as far as your four projection change "predictions"... if you only found 4 items among our thousands of data points that you questioned, well, then I think our data set must look pretty good on the whole.



[ February 13, 2010, 01:26 PM: Message edited by: rmurph3 ]

[Gekko]

Originally posted by rmurph3:

Other touts, who "force" their projections into available playing time in order to create accurate Rotisserie values, are likely making arbitrary decisions about the sorting out of roles, and in the end, providing a less accurate view. this is the part i don't agree with. sorry. if you know there are only so many wins to go around, make arbitrary decisions and divide them up, but don't create fantom wins and losses. same for the other categories. many of your projections are wrong right from the start due to "inflation". sounds like "hedging" to me.

[GOD Loves You]

Originally posted by DoubleX:

quote:Originally posted by GOD Loves You:



If what I posted is that hard to comprehend, I guess I see why people need Childs to post what numbers they should strive to attain. I don't understand how you can even post that with a straight face when the OA money winner last year has given credit to Childs and his numbers to target while drafting..



Maybe, just maybe, it is an enjoyable process for people to do projections?? I personally ballpark them but who cares if someone projects 27 homers while I think he will get 25+.



I actually enjoy reading and listening to people and how they prep for drafts without thinking "Thats the wrong way" ever entering my thoughts. [/QUOTE]I can easily sit here or there with a straight face, smile on my face or even a look of confusion on my face because I actually found it comical.....why? because some of the things credited to Childs are common sense.



The first thing I did when I joined the main was to take a look at last years overall numbers and figure out what I needed to attain to approach the 80 percentile for each category. I didn't need anyone to do that for me and found it quite alarming that others would throw down over $1,000 without doing something so simple on their own.



I think I simply stated my opinion; people can choose to agree or disagree.

[Gekko]

Originally posted by rmurph3:

Oh, and as far as your four projection change "predictions"... if you only found 4 items among our thousands of data points that you questioned, well, then I think our data set must look pretty good on the whole. ray - on the whole, i like what you guys do. i just picked out 4 projections that stuck out like a sore thumb...at least to me.

[GOD Loves You]

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

quote:Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

For those who laugh at projections...what do you do while drafting?



Draft the players I want to build my team. I have a certain way I attack each individual draft[/QUOTE]Let me ask you a question: What is worth more--a guy who gets 20 homers and 10 steals or a guy with 10 homers and 20 steals? How about a guy with 40 saves vs. a guy with 17 wins?



Now maybe this sounds pointless to you but even using numbers you'd find acceptable I will have a very good idea about which of Juan Pierre or Adam Dunn will be worth more next year. Will you? Really? Are you sure about that? [/QUOTE]20HR's/10SB's..........10HR's/20SB's......more valuable? It depends on how you are building a team, depends on the players' position and depends on the point in the draft.



Again, your Pierre and Dunn example is all relative. It's relative to how an owner is building his/her team. To be honest, I don't need to create any value for either because it all depends upon how I am drafting for that specific league. A person already drafted Jacoby Ellsbury, when this occurred, the $$$ value for Dunn and Pierre just changed, mid draft.



Maybe that is where I differ from the "average" NFBCer. I actually attack drafts many different ways. I really don't think I draft a team, I like to think I build one. Anyone can draft, but can people build?



I wonder how the people who create their own projections fare compared to those who ballpark? I know some of the better players in the NFBC don't project themselves, so why is there a backlash over one who disagrees with physically creating projections??



BTW, nice job Mark, you got the HQ boys over here defending themselves.

[bjoak]

The first thing I did when I joined the main was to take a look at last years overall numbers and figure out what I needed to attain to approach the 80 percentile for each category. I didn't need anyone to do that for me and found it quite alarming that others would throw down over $1,000 without doing something so simple on their own.



20HR's/10SB's..........10HR's/20SB's......more valuable? It depends on how you are building a team, depends on the players' position and depends on the point in the draft.



Again, your Pierre and Dunn example is all relative. It's relative to how an owner is building his/her team. To be honest, I don't need to create any value for either because it all depends upon how I am drafting for that specific league. A person already drafted Jacoby Ellsbury, when this occurred, the $$$ value for Dunn and Pierre just changed, mid draft.You are really something. All of these points are not only valid but correct. And all of them can only done well with NUMBERS. The very thing you are arguing against. How the hell are you figuring out if you're getting to the 80th percentile when you have nothing to add? You look at a whole team and say, "Meh...looks like 290 home runs to me!"?



By the way, if when planning/going into a draft you have no idea of the raw value of a player, you are putting yourself at a disadvantage.



[ February 13, 2010, 03:01 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

[bjoak]

why is there a backlash over one who disagrees with physically creating projections??Um, excuse me, sir, but I believe you are the one who went on a big rant against people who project.

[DoubleX]

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:why is there a backlash over one who disagrees with physically creating projections??Um, excuse me, sir, but I believe you are the one who went on a big rant against people who project. [/QUOTE]Exactly, after reading the rest of his posts however I decided it wasn't worth pointing out. Deaf ears and all..



I did enjoy him telling me the very same thing that I was saying, "Each to their own". I don't think he reads things the whole way through so I understand him missing that.



I also love how HQ has to 'defend' common sense and something they actually promote...Constant updates based on movement. Wow how horrible of them.

[GOD Loves You]

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:why is there a backlash over one who disagrees with physically creating projections??Um, excuse me, sir, but I believe you are the one who went on a big rant against people who project. [/QUOTE]Wow, if I performed a big rant, some are more sensitive than I thought....or possibly don't understand the definition of "rant."

[GOD Loves You]

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:The first thing I did when I joined the main was to take a look at last years overall numbers and figure out what I needed to attain to approach the 80 percentile for each category. I didn't need anyone to do that for me and found it quite alarming that others would throw down over $1,000 without doing something so simple on their own.



20HR's/10SB's..........10HR's/20SB's......more valuable? It depends on how you are building a team, depends on the players' position and depends on the point in the draft.



Again, your Pierre and Dunn example is all relative. It's relative to how an owner is building his/her team. To be honest, I don't need to create any value for either because it all depends upon how I am drafting for that specific league. A person already drafted Jacoby Ellsbury, when this occurred, the $$$ value for Dunn and Pierre just changed, mid draft.You are really something. All of these points are not only valid but correct. And all of them can only done well with NUMBERS. The very thing you are arguing against. How the hell are you figuring out if you're getting to the 80th percentile when you have nothing to add? You look at a whole team and say, "Meh...looks like 290 home runs to me!"?



By the way, if when planning/going into a draft you have no idea of the raw value of a player, you are putting yourself at a disadvantage. [/QUOTE]Name a player and I can give you their "numbers" off the top of my head. I have a great/photographic memory, so no need to have actual numbers in front of me. I have one sheet of paper with me when I draft live, both for football and baseball.....and yes, I can look through my team and add the numbers in my head.



Tell you what, join the next slow draft with me since I obviously lack a clue about things and you have it all figured out.

[GOD Loves You]

XX, since I am obviously deaf, I'm probably blind as well....come join us in the next slow draft so you can prove to me the error of my ways.



By the way, I think you are "reading" into what is clearly black and white.



[ February 13, 2010, 04:02 PM: Message edited by: GOD Loves You ]

[DoubleX]

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

XX, since I am obviously deaf, I'm probably blind as well....come join us in the next slow draft so you can prove to me the error of my ways.



By the way, I think you are "reading" into what is clearly black and white. Well seeing as you have to PM me the same thing you posted I guess I will answer the same question here..



Show me where I say anything about what type of roto player you are? You might have to read the posts I made again.. and again. I don't know.



I actually agreed with you the 1st time while saying that to each their own.



As for the draft, I will look and see if it is possible. I work some crazy hours and have to check what city I will be working in as well as if I will be in an event at the time.



I always want to get better so the better the competition the better I can get.

[rkulaski]

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

Mark, aren't there certain players, you spend time researching, who you "know" will never be on your roster or are you open to drafting anyone? there are players i don't like to be sure, however if they slip far enough, i'd have to at least consider them. [/QUOTE]Heading into my 5th yr in the nfbc, I research everybody. I cut corners my first year.



If you "knew" you weren't going to research Ben Zobrist last March, did that time saved help you? I don't like drafting D Uggla, but he slips from rd 8 to rd 11 and the construct of my team is more speed and average based then power based, he's on my short list of players to grab. EVERY player is if they slip far enough in the draft.