Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!

DoubleX · Post by **DoubleX** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 10:43 am

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

XX, since I am obviously deaf, I'm probably blind as well....come join us in the next slow draft so you can prove to me the error of my ways.

By the way, I think you are "reading" into what is clearly black and white. Ehh... That slow draft has been full for a few days near as I can tell.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 10:50 am

and yes, I can look through my team and add the numbers in my headBuddy, exactly which numbers are you adding? You don't use projections.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 11:09 am

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:The first thing I did when I joined the main was to take a look at last years overall numbers and figure out what I needed to attain to approach the 80 percentile for each category. I didn't need anyone to do that for me and found it quite alarming that others would throw down over $1,000 without doing something so simple on their own.

20HR's/10SB's..........10HR's/20SB's......more valuable? It depends on how you are building a team, depends on the players' position and depends on the point in the draft.

Again, your Pierre and Dunn example is all relative. It's relative to how an owner is building his/her team. To be honest, I don't need to create any value for either because it all depends upon how I am drafting for that specific league. A person already drafted Jacoby Ellsbury, when this occurred, the $$$ value for Dunn and Pierre just changed, mid draft.You are really something. All of these points are not only valid but correct. And all of them can only done well with NUMBERS. The very thing you are arguing against. How the hell are you figuring out if you're getting to the 80th percentile when you have nothing to add? You look at a whole team and say, "Meh...looks like 290 home runs to me!"?

By the way, if when planning/going into a draft you have no idea of the raw value of a player, you are putting yourself at a disadvantage. [/QUOTE]Name a player and I can give you their "numbers" off the top of my head. I have a great/photographic memory, so no need to have actual numbers in front of me. I have one sheet of paper with me when I draft live, both for football and baseball.....and yes, I can look through my team and add the numbers in my head.

Tell you what, join the next slow draft with me since I obviously lack a clue about things and you have it all figured out. [/QUOTE]You crack me up Patrick. If you read your posts you come to one of 2 conclusions 1) you are a genius 2) May lack some sense of realty.

I think you should be co- credited with some of the things that are attributed to Shawn. Your track records are very similar.

Funny thing is I have done it both ways. I am actually more effective at not projecting stats. For me it is about how I am spending my time at the draft table. I like to spend my time looking at the supply/demand of each player at the table. Plus I am pretty slow with technology and it hampers me.

Bottom line is I am more of a Kenyon bring a list guy ( I guess we should reference Patrick there too). I have a lot of respect for people like Mark and Brian who do extensive projections. I do think it would be irresponsible it consider people who do not project to be less prepared. We all have our strengths and that is one of their's.

Mark- great chat today.

GOD Loves You · Post by **GOD Loves You** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 2:02 pm

Thanks for the love all. It always pays to be honest with opinions around here, especially ones in the minority.

I don't think I've ever really personally attacked(maybe some "jabs") anyone on these threads, but for many, it seems to be their Modus Operandi.

Sorry if I find things the "better" players create as common sense to some. I know I can always count on Kent for words of encouragement.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 2:52 pm

Originally posted by GOD Loves You:

Sorry if I find things the "better" players create as common sense to some. I know I can always count on Kent for words of encouragement.

Patrick - we both know the team you drafted in the slow draft. off the top of my head, i told you your team was projected to hit 230 hr. when i ran the actual numbers, it's at 232hr with 1029 runs, 963 rbi, 126sb and a .282 batting avg

of course i'm not going to post any of your players, but you got to come clean here. i think using projections would have helped you in that draft. i wasn't the only one who thought you realized you were short in HR in about round 30, a little too late.

751542 · Post by **751542** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 2:58 pm

i told you your team was projected to hit 230 hr. when i ran the actual numbers, it's at 232hr with 1029 runs, 963 rbi, 126sb and a .282 batting avg

now thats a power outage

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:00 pm

Originally posted by RoundTrippers:

i told you your team was projected to hit 230 hr. when i ran the actual numbers, it's at 232hr with 1029 runs, 963 rbi, 126sb and a .282 batting avg

now thats a power outage

basically it was an "everything but avg" outage. he better hope some of his bench players get a starting gig or else...

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Sat Feb 13, 2010 3:09 pm

E · Post by E » Sun Feb 14, 2010 2:28 am

MY DRAFTEES IN 2009, LARGELY DUE TO HQ:

CHOO 14TH ROUND

AARON HILL 18TH ROUND

ADAM LIND 19TH ROUND

ZOBRIST 24TH ROUND

ASDRUBAL 26TH ROUND

THIS LIST DOESN'T SUCK.

HQ ROCKS.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sun Feb 14, 2010 3:38 am

Originally posted by E:

MY DRAFTEES IN 2009, LARGELY DUE TO HQ:

CHOO 14TH ROUND

AARON HILL 18TH ROUND

ADAM LIND 19TH ROUND

ZOBRIST 24TH ROUND

ASDRUBAL 26TH ROUND

THIS LIST DOESN'T SUCK.

HQ ROCKS. and what were HQ's projections before draft day for the players you mention?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Sun Feb 14, 2010 3:42 am

Does this mean HQ didn't supply a good pick for you till the 14th round?

[ February 14, 2010, 09:43 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 8:33 am

poor hq. the guy spent a zillion hours to start his own business. he puts all his work on a website and in a book. you don't have to pay for either- and the guy gets blasted every year. one of many reasons i read teddy r's great speech about the man in the arena. don't like ron- don't read; simple as that.

DoubleX · Post by **DoubleX** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:04 pm

Originally posted by headhunters:

poor hq. the guy spent a zillion hours to start his own business. he puts all his work on a website and in a book. you don't have to pay for either- and the guy gets blasted every year. one of many reasons i read teddy r's great speech about the man in the arena. don't like ron- don't read; simple as that. Some of the jealousy is so transparent in this thread from some of these guys. I guess being a wanna be so bad leads to trashing others??

The funny part is they get as much or more right as anyone does and how the HQ guys conduct themselves while being ripped here speaks volumes.

[ February 16, 2010, 03:05 AM: Message edited by: DoubleX ]

JohnZ · Post by **JohnZ** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:17 pm

Originally posted by DoubleX:

quote:Originally posted by headhunters:

poor hq. the guy spent a zillion hours to start his own business. he puts all his work on a website and in a book. you don't have to pay for either- and the guy gets blasted every year. one of many reasons i read teddy r's great speech about the man in the arena. don't like ron- don't read; simple as that. Some of the jealousy is so transparent in this thread from some of these guys. I guess being a wanna be so bad leads to trashing others??

The funny part is they get as much or more right as anyone does and how the HQ guys conduct themselves while being ripped here speaks volumes. [/QUOTE]Just the normal Walla Walla bing bang..

DoubleX · Post by **DoubleX** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 9:54 pm

Took me a few to notice there was writing there. Nice!

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 10:36 pm

Originally posted by E:

MY DRAFTEES IN 2009, LARGELY DUE TO HQ:

CHOO 14TH ROUND

AARON HILL 18TH ROUND

ADAM LIND 19TH ROUND

ZOBRIST 24TH ROUND

ASDRUBAL 26TH ROUND

THIS LIST DOESN'T SUCK.

HQ ROCKS. If you had all those players on ONE team, then the only reasons you DID NOT win the 100K last year were....

1) HQ can't "suggest" good players before round 14 (as Doughboys said).

2) You (and HQ) can't develop a pitching staff.

billywaz · Post by **billywaz** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 10:38 pm

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Is this your "pet" you are bringing to the draft to intimidate/frighten you opponents, Lance?

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 11:08 pm

Originally posted by billywaz:

Is this your "pet" you are bringing to the draft to intimidate/frighten you opponents, Lance?

i thought that was lance after a couple bottles!

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 11:10 pm

Originally posted by DoubleX:

Some of the jealousy is so transparent in this thread from some of these guys. I guess being a wanna be so bad leads to trashing others??

who is being jealous and who is a wanna be? in any case, when is calling out BS projections bad form? i thought i had a duty to let people know about a few "duty" projections. again, overall i enjoy HQ.

Layin'theSmackDown · Post by **Layin'theSmackDown** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 4:51 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by rmurph3:

Other touts, who "force" their projections into available playing time in order to create accurate Rotisserie values, are likely making arbitrary decisions about the sorting out of roles, and in the end, providing a less accurate view. this is the part i don't agree with. sorry. if you know there are only so many wins to go around, make arbitrary decisions and divide them up, but don't create fantom wins and losses. same for the other categories. many of your projections are wrong right from the start due to "inflation". sounds like "hedging" to me. [/QUOTE]

Layin'theSmackDown · Post by **Layin'theSmackDown** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 4:56 am

Originally posted by Layin'theSmackDown:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by rmurph3:

Other touts, who "force" their projections into available playing time in order to create accurate Rotisserie values, are likely making arbitrary decisions about the sorting out of roles, and in the end, providing a less accurate view. this is the part i don't agree with. sorry. if you know there are only so many wins to go around, make arbitrary decisions and divide them up, but don't create fantom wins and losses. same for the other categories. many of your projections are wrong right from the start due to "inflation". sounds like "hedging" to me. [/QUOTE][/QUOTE]How would you account for injuries? Assume none or boldy predict whos going down?

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 9:29 am

Originally posted by Layin'theSmackDown:

How would you account for injuries? Assume none or boldy predict whos going down? i reduce the IP or AB for players i think are significant enough injury risks. i'm bold, but that's just me

JAGUAR · Post by **JAGUAR** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 9:34 am

HEY GG NOT TO CHANGE THE TOPIC . BUT DID YOU SEE THAT A NEW " WALLSTEET " MOVIE WILL SOON BE OUT . GECKO GETS OUT OF JAIL . SHOULD BE GREAT .

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 10:32 am

Originally posted by JAGUAR:

HEY GG NOT TO CHANGE THE TOPIC . BUT DID YOU SEE THAT A NEW " WALLSTEET " MOVIE WILL SOON BE OUT . GECKO GETS OUT OF JAIL . SHOULD BE GREAT . saw that Jag!! although i expect it to be good, it could NEVER live up to the first Wall Street. Never.

Layin'theSmackDown · Post by **Layin'theSmackDown** » Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:05 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Layin'theSmackDown:

How would you account for injuries? Assume none or boldy predict whos going down? i reduce the IP or AB for players i think are significant enough injury risks. i'm bold, but that's just me [/QUOTE]of course, im sure anyone who does projections would do the same. but if you are only divvying up the expected amount of wins in mlb you would obviously come up short for wins etc every year thus creating the exact situation you are criticizing.