Originally posted by Layin'theSmackDown:
of course, im sure anyone who does projections would do the same. but if you are only divvying up the expected amount of wins in mlb you would obviously come up short for wins etc every year thus creating the exact situation you are criticizing. i'm not sure i follow. if i predict cole hamels to only pitch 150 innings this year, i'm bumping up the innings (and wins) of another phillies pitcher or pitchers.
Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!
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Layin'theSmackDown
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Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!
Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Layin'theSmackDown:
of course, im sure anyone who does projections would do the same. but if you are only divvying up the expected amount of wins in mlb you would obviously come up short for wins etc every year thus creating the exact situation you are criticizing. i'm not sure i follow. if i predict cole hamels to only pitch 150 innings this year, i'm bumping up the innings (and wins) of another phillies pitcher or pitchers. [/QUOTE]i'm not talking about known injury risks going into the season like a liriano et all (whose ip are going to be projected to fall short of a full season by everyone) I was refering to the inevitable injuries to players who arent currently expected to miss time. if you only account for the actual amount of mlb wins possible then you are implying that there will be zero unknown injuries all season. i think you have to project more wins than are realistically possible and concede that we dont know where some of the injuries/demotions will occur in order to be more accurate on the whole.
quote:Originally posted by Layin'theSmackDown:
of course, im sure anyone who does projections would do the same. but if you are only divvying up the expected amount of wins in mlb you would obviously come up short for wins etc every year thus creating the exact situation you are criticizing. i'm not sure i follow. if i predict cole hamels to only pitch 150 innings this year, i'm bumping up the innings (and wins) of another phillies pitcher or pitchers. [/QUOTE]i'm not talking about known injury risks going into the season like a liriano et all (whose ip are going to be projected to fall short of a full season by everyone) I was refering to the inevitable injuries to players who arent currently expected to miss time. if you only account for the actual amount of mlb wins possible then you are implying that there will be zero unknown injuries all season. i think you have to project more wins than are realistically possible and concede that we dont know where some of the injuries/demotions will occur in order to be more accurate on the whole.
Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!
Originally posted by Layin'theSmackDown:
i think you have to project more wins than are realistically possible and concede that we dont know where some of the injuries/demotions will occur in order to be more accurate on the whole. i now understand what you are saying, but i don't believe that is the correct way to do it.
i think you have to project more wins than are realistically possible and concede that we dont know where some of the injuries/demotions will occur in order to be more accurate on the whole. i now understand what you are saying, but i don't believe that is the correct way to do it.
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Layin'theSmackDown
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Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!
Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Layin'theSmackDown:
i now understand what you are saying, but i don't believe that is the correct way to do it. [/QUOTE]maybe so, but i have to believe that some of your late draft picks will be taken for their potential/handcuffing instead of strictly from your projections. so on some level you probably agree with me even if its only a little bit.
quote:Originally posted by Layin'theSmackDown:
i now understand what you are saying, but i don't believe that is the correct way to do it. [/QUOTE]maybe so, but i have to believe that some of your late draft picks will be taken for their potential/handcuffing instead of strictly from your projections. so on some level you probably agree with me even if its only a little bit.
Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!
Originally posted by Layin'theSmackDown:
maybe so, but i have to believe that some of your late draft picks will be taken for their potential/handcuffing instead of strictly from your projections. so on some level you probably agree with me even if its only a little bit. projections are only one key to drafting. you also need to draft players within the construct of the team you have already assembled. Kyle Blanks could be a major part of my team or he could be virtually useless to me.
projections are only one piece. i prefer not to use purposefully inflated projections.
maybe so, but i have to believe that some of your late draft picks will be taken for their potential/handcuffing instead of strictly from your projections. so on some level you probably agree with me even if its only a little bit. projections are only one key to drafting. you also need to draft players within the construct of the team you have already assembled. Kyle Blanks could be a major part of my team or he could be virtually useless to me.
projections are only one piece. i prefer not to use purposefully inflated projections.
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sportsbettingman
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Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!
One pet peeve I have is when the Forecaster goes through the effort of giving out exact numbers for at bats, and then puts a batting average that is impossible to match, even with rounding up and down.
Same thing for pitching ratios. If you're giving out innings pitched and at bats...at least get the average and era correct.
Same thing for pitching ratios. If you're giving out innings pitched and at bats...at least get the average and era correct.
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!
Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Layin'theSmackDown:
maybe so, but i have to believe that some of your late draft picks will be taken for their potential/handcuffing instead of strictly from your projections. so on some level you probably agree with me even if its only a little bit. projections are only one key to drafting. you also need to draft players within the construct of the team you have already assembled. Kyle Blanks could be a major part of my team or he could be virtually useless to me.
projections are only one piece. i prefer not to use purposefully inflated projections. [/QUOTE]Sorry, I can't foresee a situation in which he will be useful to you.
quote:Originally posted by Layin'theSmackDown:
maybe so, but i have to believe that some of your late draft picks will be taken for their potential/handcuffing instead of strictly from your projections. so on some level you probably agree with me even if its only a little bit. projections are only one key to drafting. you also need to draft players within the construct of the team you have already assembled. Kyle Blanks could be a major part of my team or he could be virtually useless to me.
projections are only one piece. i prefer not to use purposefully inflated projections. [/QUOTE]Sorry, I can't foresee a situation in which he will be useful to you.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
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Purple Helmets
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Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!
I used two key sources of information from the beginning of my draft prep through the end of the season last year and I was fortunate enough to finish second overall in the main. Baseball HQ was one of those sources and they will be again this year. I'm a believer...
Shandler 2010 BS_Projections!
actually, i wasn't in the NFBC in 2009. i did quite well with my post 13th round picks, thanks in part to HQ. before the 14th round, HQ helped a bit, but i'm also capable of making some decisions on my own, regarding the makeup of my roster. didn't realize there would be so much venom in this room.