SP Sleeper - Wade_Davis

[Gekko]

The Pitcher:

With an adp in the 18th round, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Wade Davis is being draft alongside the likes of Joe Blanton and Rick Porcello. While both of those pitchers are decent fillers on your pitching staff, IMO Wade Davis represents a breakout candidate.



The Data:

*workhorse build: 6'5" 220lbs

*only 24 years old entering this season

*throws a mid 90's heater and a "plus" curve

*and maybe most importantly, he's already thrown 211 inning in AAA all before the age of 24 with a K9 of 8.29, an ERA of 3.23, and a whip of 1.23.

*in 6 games (36 innings) at the big league level, Wade has a K9 of 8.9, an ERA of 3.72, and a whip of 1.26. this included games against the Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers and the Orioles twice (RH killers).



The Verdict:

Wade was always a highly touted prospect. The Rays gave him time to come into his own in AAA, and he has now delivered the good in the majors, albiet in a small sample size of 36 innings.



When looking to win your league, you always need players that will perform well past their adp. Although they will be useful, Blanton and Porcello have no shot at taking their game to the next level this year, Wade Davis does.



Enjoy!



[ January 27, 2010, 06:06 PM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

[Gekko]

btw, some "sharks" might get upset with me publicly touting my sleeper picks as they may want the sleepers to stay "under the radar" till after draft day. these "sharks" may try to switch subjects quickly or cast doubt on these players or even me, but make no mistake, my sleepers are some of the most coveted in fantasyland.

[eddiejag]

Im a Wade Davis believer and had him in the ultimate last year down the stretch.HE improved in the 2nd half in Dom,Ctl,and Cmd.

Its funny how you mentioned BLANTON GOING IN THE 18TH round i also think he has great value this year going this late.Playing on the best team in baseball that could be a lot of wins with a ton of k's.

[Gekko]

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Its funny how you mentioned BLANTON GOING IN THE 18TH round i also think he has great value this year going this late. you know i'm a blanton supporter, but that was when you could get him in the mid 20's. his upside is limited and 2009 may be the best he does for a while

[Navel Lint]

Originally posted by Gekko:

btw, some "sharks" might get upset with me publicly touting my sleeper picks as they may want the sleepers to stay "under the radar" till after draft day. these "sharks" may try to switch subjects quickly or cast doubt on these players or even me, but make no mistake, my sleepers are some of the most coveted in fantasyland. Classic.



Tout a player without ever making any declarative statement as to what that player will actually produce. If he does nothing, you never said he would. If he has a great year; well, you know………….



Then before anyone can challenge your assertions, suggest that anyone disagreeing with you is out to undermine you and only serving their own self interest because they want to keep your information out of the hands of the general population.



You must be a writer on the Glenn Beck comedy hour

[Edwards Kings]

Ann B. Davis throws harder...







And she can cook, too!



Just kidding.



She really can't cook.

[DOUGHBOYS]

When is a sleeper not a sleeper?

[Glenneration X]

How much do you believe in your sleeper Mark?

Does he outproduce Price? Garza?



Glenn

[KJ Duke]

Originally posted by Gekko:

btw, some "sharks" might get upset with me publicly touting my sleeper picks as they may want the sleepers to stay "under the radar" till after draft day. these "sharks" may try to switch subjects quickly or cast doubt on these players or even me, but make no mistake, my sleepers are some of the most coveted in fantasyland. Seems to me the Gekko strategy here would have to be give away sleepers that aren't necessarily wanted or needed, but those which you do not want the sharks to get too early. Or make them think they need to take them too early.



Trouble is, the true sharks are so because they are experts at adapting. Shut off one avenue, they take another. Thus, I think, a futile exercise.



However, it could be effective at throwing out of balance the wannabe sharks who can't adapt.

[RichV]

"...Porcello (has) no shot at taking their game to the next level this year...."





And the reason he can't get better is.....

because he's 21?

because he doesn't have a real good idea of how to pitch

Because there's no way a 21 year old can ever knock a walk per nine off his 2010 walk rate?



yeah, "no shot" he gets better.

[sportsbettingman]

Originally posted by Gekko:

The Pitcher:

With an adp in the 18th round, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Wade Davis is being draft alongside the likes of Joe Blanton Ahhh, yes!



This hearkens me back to what is, in my opinion, the most entertaining AND educational thread in NFBC MB history...



http://nfbcboards.fanball.com/cgi-bin/u ... 004167;p=1



...from said thread...(after a mere FIVE pages of what would become 22 pages!)



Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

quote:Originally posted by G-X:

Five pages of posts on this guy??



Who are we talking about.....Joe Blanton or Tom Seaver? It's what sets the NFBC and its players apart.



Although the player is a run of the mill pitcher, there have been a lot of interesting thoughts.



More interesting than singing the praises of a high quality player that everyone is familiar with. [/QUOTE]I agree! This is why I I keep returning to these boards...even after self-banashment...as it's hard to find a more passionate/intelligent group. (who happen to enjoy the same game)



[ January 27, 2010, 08:53 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

[Gekko]

Originally posted by Glenneration X:

How much do you believe in your sleeper Mark?

Does he outproduce Price? Garza?



Glenn price will be another one of my sleepers.

[Gekko]

Originally posted by RichV:

"...Porcello (has) no shot at taking their game to the next level this year...."





And the reason he can't get better is.....

because he's 21?

because he doesn't have a real good idea of how to pitch

Because there's no way a 21 year old can ever knock a walk per nine off his 2010 walk rate?



yeah, "no shot" he gets better. read the key words..."not this year"



K rate much to low

[GOD Loves You]

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Glenneration X:

How much do you believe in your sleeper Mark?

Does he outproduce Price? Garza?



Glenn price will be another one of my sleepers. [/QUOTE]And their Ray buddy will probably be just as good.

[Gekko]

garza will be valuable, but i don't see much profit for where he is being drafted. maybe a little but not much

[RichV]

The key word I saw was "no shot". That simply isn't true. He's smart. he's got good control. He will learn to miss more bats. Not impossible he misses more bats this year.

[Gekko]

Originally posted by RichV:

The key word I saw was "no shot". That simply isn't true. He's smart. he's got good control. He will learn to miss more bats. Not impossible he misses more bats this year. that is why we play this game. u pick who you like. i pick who i like.



i like porcello, just not for this year.

[RichV]

off topic, but are the fanball sites all down except for the message boards here? Diamond Challenge and NFBC home pages don't seem to be loading for me.

[RichV]

I like Davis just fine. I just have issue with saying "no shot". No shot implies that if I like Porcello this year, I'm wrong.

[Gekko]

Originally posted by RichV:

I like Davis just fine. I just have issue with saying "no shot". No shot implies that if I like Porcello this year, I'm wrong. "no shot" at taking his game to the next level is what i said. what do you think porcello's #'s will be this year...

wins?

k's?

era?

whip?

IP?



please post and i'll tell you where i think you are wrong

[rkulaski]

The thing is it's not like Davis is much of a secret after what he did in Sept and the fact that each magazine i've read (so far) and shandler tout his upside and his success in the minors. I guess Gek's point is that his adp should be better than what it is if you believe davis is going to throw plenty of innings in the bigs this yr.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Glenneration X:

How much do you believe in your sleeper Mark?

Does he outproduce Price? Garza?



Glenn price will be another one of my sleepers. [/QUOTE]With two players from Tampa as sleepers, you probably need to buy some insurance and draft Jeremy Hellickson.

[RichV]

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by RichV:

I like Davis just fine. I just have issue with saying "no shot". No shot implies that if I like Porcello this year, I'm wrong. "no shot" at taking his game to the next level is what i said. what do you think porcello's #'s will be this year...

wins?

k's?

era?

whip?

IP?



please post and i'll tell you where i think you are wrong [/QUOTE]I like using rates, but for the sake of argument, let's say he stays healthy and throws 180 innings.



W-14

K 90

BB 50

whip 1.32

era 4.15



IF he can walk 10-15 less, and K 20-30 more, he can go sub 4.00 era, 1.20 whip



I wouldn't put high % on the upside, but I do say he has a SHOT at hitting new personal bests.



[ January 27, 2010, 09:21 PM: Message edited by: RichV ]

[DOUGHBOYS]

Eddie pimping Rajai

Gekko pimpimg Wade

I'll pimp Willie and Tommy Davis. Never get much press for being one of the great brother combo's but they were fun to watch.



I now return you to your local station.

[Quahogs]

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Glenneration X:

How much do you believe in your sleeper Mark?

Does he outproduce Price? Garza?



Glenn price will be another one of my sleepers. [/QUOTE]With two players from Tampa as sleepers, you probably need to buy some insurance and draft Jeremy Hellickson. [/QUOTE]Funny you should mention Hellickson - I've just seen him go SCREAMING up the charts the last slow I was in. By Main Day he may be parked in the high teens !