Live Chat With Rick Wilton: Wednesday, Feb. 17th, 2 pm ET

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 6:56 am

Originally posted by freddiezee:

Hi Rick,

In your opinion, are catchers too risky in terms of injuries to be taken in the first two rounds of fantasy drafts? Obviously talking about Mauer and Martinez here.

I'd also like to know if you think pitchers are too risky to go that high too? Talking about Lincecum and Halladay here. Mauer and Martinez are the only two catchers worth drafting in rounds 1-2. Both should avoid the DL this season. As far as pitchers, the risk for injury (and a performance drop off) is too much to take one (even Lincecum) until the third round. Just my humble opinion.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:06 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Rick, the NFBC is offering free insurance on the top 100 players this year.

Just for fun, your best guess on five players of the top 100 who will be disabled for 60 days. This is just for fun right? I don't want anyone emailing me saying I put a jinx on so-so!

Jose Reyes

Brandon Webb

Conor Jackson

Brad Lidge

Glen Perkins (not sure if he is top 100 or not).

Note that all these players have health situations and are players who should be drafted only in situations where you are getting a discount to compensate for the risk.

I'll be doing another chat in mid-March and this list could roll over completely.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:08 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez are toolsy, but have "Fragile" where their name tag should be.

Talk about how they will, or will not, stay healthy this year. Jones should be OK this season and I we don't have enough evidence to call him injury prone. Gonzalez always seems to be nicked up and never 100%.Jones stays healthy, Gonzalez doesn't.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:10 am

Originally posted by RickWilton2:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Rick, the NFBC is offering free insurance on the top 100 players this year.

Just for fun, your best guess on five players of the top 100 who will be disabled for 60 days. Glen Perkins (not sure if he is top 100 or not).

[/QUOTE]Really ??

[ February 17, 2010, 01:11 PM: Message edited by: Quahogs ]

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:14 am

In 2007, Cliff Lee's Spring Training was upset as he recovered from an injury, he had a late start to the season and his season was a disaster. Obviously he has grown up as a pitcher, but does his current boney foot cause any concern?

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:17 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Tim Lincecum's fastball velocity has dipped the last two years.

It hasn't hurt him on the field yet.

Medically, is there something that can be read into the trend? I’ve talked to a couple of scouts about velocity recently and they bring up some good points. And yes I read the same article you did on Linecum’s drop in fastball velocity the past couple of years. As pitchers get older they can and usually loose something off the fastball. But as pitchers gain experience, they also learn that talking a little off the fastball (and sometimes other pitches) here and there to set up hitters. They learn they do not need to max out the effort with each pitch. Lincecum is likely learning that already. The drop in his velocity was roughly two MPH? Are all the ballparks using the same radar gun? Is the gun in the same location at each ballpark. The questions go on and on. I’m not convinced the radar numbers are consistent and accurate.

If you see a pitcher who reportedly has seen a 4-6 MPH drop in his velocity numbers and he is getting pounded that tells us he has a problem. Lincecum? We should not be worried about the arm/shoulder at this point.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:19 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Are the Mets really as stupid as they look when it comes to injuries? It sure looks like it. It is nearly impossible at this point to believe the injury reports coming out of Citi Field.

Maybe, just maybe, its the Bernie Madoff jinx. He bought tix at Citi Field and that pissed off the baseball gods!

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:20 am

2010 edition:

Will Carroll vs. Rick Wilton

Who wins the Celebrity Death Match and why?

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:22 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Matt LaPorta is a big part of the Indians future and an intriguing dilemma for fantasy owners this year. He is coming off hip and toe surgery but was cleared this week to begin baseball activities.

The Indians are rumored to be bringing back Russell Branyan, who began his career in Cleveland, as insurance in case LaPorta isn't ready. What are your feelings regarding LaPorta heading into ST? I would be cautious with LaPorta because of his hip surgery last October. Until he gets on the field in areal game we won't be able to gauge his recovery. The toe is a non issue. I would be cautious in drafting LaPorta IF you are playing for this year. If you are rebuilding he should be OK min 2011.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:24 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Another late round target of many (myself included) this year is Detroit 2B Scott Sizemore. Most fantasy owners don't know anymore about him than what we've read on Rotoworld or seen in the projections. He broke his ankle last year and reports are that he'll be ready for the spring. Any updates on his progress and if he'll be able to run on that ankle? I suspect the Tigers will either leave him behind in extended spring training for a couple of weeks just to give him a little more time to recover from the ankle injury. His SBs numbers could take a hit but once he is recalled/activated he will be ok.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:27 am

Originally posted by Ryan Carey:

Well - why not one more.

Rick - I've been blowing smoke on these boards about CC Sabathia and pouring ice water on anyone who gets overly excited about the guy.

I keep saying that he could be due for one of his patented oblique strains this year. I'm kinda just having some fun here - but should we be more worried about CC than we should the other SP's that will be drafted in the first 5 rounds? I can see CC developing a nagging oblique or muscle strain type injury this season. He has avoided injuries the past few years. Now he has a ring, the contract.

But that body! It just screams strained muscles or arm injury.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:31 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Brett Anderson, Ben Sheets, Justin Duchscherer.

Will any of these A's starters be pitching by the end of the year?

Who has the best chance of making it through the year without injury? Brett Anderson reminds me a lot of Jon Lester. He really is bigger and stronger than he looks at first glance. He is the best bet to avoid the DL.

Kudos to Sheets and Duchscherer for all the rehab work and comebacks they have made. If you are risk adversed pass on both unless they come at a steep discount (or you can add them via a reserve roster draft).

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:34 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Roy Oswalt opted for rest this off-season, to me that means he put off taking care of a lingering back issue, thus is still at risk, once the rigors of the season begin. Is rest enough? And specifically for Oswalt? reportedly Oswalt's disc issue was not serious enough to warrant surgery. If his new back strengthening program has built up his core muscles to help protect his back then yes he should avoid further back problems. If he redevelops a disc or vertebrae problem this season then we are likely to see a sharp decline in his career due to the back issues.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:36 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Nolan Reimold had an achille issue? Is he good to go? Are achille issues the type that re-occur, or once your past it, it's behind you? Because he had surgery in November Reinmold is likely going to need some extra time after spring training to recover from the Achilles surgery. Once he is back (late April?) history says this injury does not reoccur.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:40 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

Chad Qualls dislocated his landing leg knee cap? Do you have any reservations about him this year? Was he unable to work out, thus added weight, thus in danger of putting excess weight on a fragile landing knee? Because he is a reliever, Qualls is in better situation to come back from this injury. He is recovering from a torn patellofemoral ligament in his left knee. Its a tough rehab and he is not out of the woods yet even though early reports indicate his rehab is solid so far. That said, I can see him starting the year on the DL to make sure he has regained enough leg strength to avoid any problems.

BARBERIAN · Post by **BARBERIAN** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:41 am

Your insight is very helpful........just curious, do you have an any type of medical background or training??

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 7:46 am

What became of RickWilton1?

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:02 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Rick,

I'm wondering if you keep a database with probability statistics for particular types of injuries and/or situations?

(not looking for answers for these, they're just examples)

1. J.Jurrjens gets an MRI for shoulder soreness that comes back clean. What is the % a clean MRI foreshadows a poorer than expected season ?

2. How soon does normal speed return to a player in general after an ankle sprain, an ankle break, groin, hamstring, quad injuries ?

3. How soon does power return after a labrum injury, rotator cuff, broken wrist, hamate bone...

4. What's the % tendinitis turns into a bigger problem ? And how long once you hear tendinitis is the culprit does a player return to normal output ?

5. The word OBLIQUE strain lands next to a player. Do you categorize the severity and how soon the player returns to normal function ?

- these are just a few examples. I know injury extremes, players ages, genetic makeup, etc make nailing outcomes similar to hitting a moving target but I'm just looking for detailed circumstances, probabilities and factual outcome. Something like this would be huge and I'm sure a tidy sum could be charged

Lastly, how do you come about your injury information? I'm guessing you don't talk to the players and that trainers CAN'T talk to you. Do you have a network of beat reporters that you tap ?

Thanks Rick Quahogs: Great questions but I hope you understand I can't devote the time to correctly answer all of them. Here is one example.

If a player suffers a fractured wrist or hand or strained ligaments, there is enough examples to show a both a players SLG % and HR declines for up to a year. There are exceptions like Dustin Pedroia a couple of years ago. Still, it is a rule I use, then I look at the player's situation to see if there is enough evidence to back off that prediction.

I have a huge spreadsheet of injuries that allows me to sort by injury type to get an idea how long the player will be out. I also try to use comparative analysis. In other words, I try to match up a current injury with one in the past and use that as a guage. It looked like BJ Upton's labral injury was very close to Hanley Ramirez the year before. I made the projection last year that Upton would bounce back quickly from his labrum surgery. He didn't. The lesson there is no matter what formula you use to evaluate player injuries, each situation is different and to say the least, it is an inexact science. Cameron Maybin is this year's "Hanley Ramirez" regarding labral surgery for a hitter. I believe his recovery should be similar to Ramirez (it helps to be on the same team with the same medical staff too). If he ends up struggling as Upton did last year, I will revisit how I evaluate this type of injury next winter.

Because of HIPPA the days of getting info from trainers and players is over. Over the years (and thanks to the highly successful First Pitch Forums - Arizona that Ron Shandler and I run)I've been able to make a bunch of scouting contacts. I use those when I can plus contacts in each city of beat writers/ media types to garner as much info as possible. Lastly, I watch a ton of games. With 4 DVR's in the house I can tape just about any game and use that to gather injury info. I'm not a scout but like a sponge I've tried to pick up as much knowledge as I could that helps in injury analysis.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:04 am

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Rick,

Will you sign a baseball and inscribe "Dear Andy, To my biggest fan...

Drop in the mail to Bellingham, Mass Better Yet. Attend the First Pitch Forum on March 7th in Boston and I'll do it in person!!!!

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:06 am

Originally posted by eddiejag:

Rick OUT of these guys are you worried about any of them getting enough at bats for fantasy value.

Nick Johnson

Josh Hamilton

Aramis Ramirez

Carlos Quentin Nick Johnson is the biggest riskjust because of his history.

I think it will be sink or swim with Hamilton. Either he posts 550 ABs or get has a bunch of injuries and struggles to play in half teh games in 2010.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:15 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Rick,

You had Greinke and Lester on your 'red flag' list last year.

What do you think of them, injury-wise, this year? I did have both on my Warning Flag list last year. Odds are Grienke will drop off some because typically CY Young winners do. Though I think he will stay healthy. Lester got stronger late in the season a great sign he has solid mechanics and arm strength. Healthwise I'm not worried.

I think I will revisit the Warning Flag concept next off season. I did a brief report on the past 6 or so years in Arizona in November and found the number of pitchers getting hurt to be just above the 1-in 3 that typically land on the DL. When I started the annual reports back in 1994, it was more accurate.

I think most of you know about the Verducci effect. Its a list that he posts annually but he uses a 30 IP innings jump. Warning Flag is 50 IP from one season to the next and only of pitchers who are 25 or younger. I think 50 IP is more accurate but the research will answer the question.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:17 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Hey Rick -- no question, just want to say good luck on the First Pitch Tour, I'll miss stalking you and Ron across the country this spring but look forward to the NYC and Boston stops next month. Hey Todd. We will miss you this year and greatly appreciate the help in the past. Guess Ron and I will have to bone up on ADP since we won't have you to turn to outside of Bos/NY. See you in a couple of weeks.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:19 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Matsuzaka suffered a back strain the other day.

A foretelling of things to come? From what I've been told it is not an issue. He is in great shape (yeah I know everyone says that) and this looks like it is just a little too much work in one day for Dice-K.

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:20 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Rick,

You had technical problems last year.

Do you need a new computer? I upgraded to Windows 7 recently an am still having issues. I'm ready to move back to Mac!

RickWilton2 · Post by **RickWilton2** » Wed Feb 17, 2010 8:22 am

Originally posted by Joe Sambito:

In 2007, Cliff Lee's Spring Training was upset as he recovered from an injury, he had a late start to the season and his season was a disaster. Obviously he has grown up as a pitcher, but does his current boney foot cause any concern? Looks like it was a minor clean up and he should be OK for Opening Day. Better to fix it now than once the season starts.