Junk

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 6:59 am

Stuff is numbers and fact, Junk is opinion

Is anybody targeting Manny Ramirez, Alfonzo Soriano, or David Ortiz? I didn't think so.

It's tough taking steroid guys on the decline, yet when somebody gets Manny or Soriano in the seventh round, they'll claim VALUE.

What is the value of having a steroid decliner?

They'll be playing hot potato with 14 other drafters and declare VALUE after being the 'winner' in this game within a game.

That's a game I don't wanna win.

Barry Bonds was the greatest ballplayer, ever, on steroids.

Sammy Sosa comes in second.

ARod is the best post-steroid ballplayer of players alleged to have taken steroids....so far

'Perfect' by Lew Paper, detailing the players lives that were on the field during Don Larsen's perfect game is a great read.

Matt Kemp declines this year. Call me old fashioned. The only work outs that I have been reading about in regards to Kemp have been on beaches and in bedrooms.

Jealous? Hell yes!

James Shields loses his spot in the rotation this year. He poses as a number two, but has become a middle of the rotation guy, on his way to innings eater status. By the trade deadline, he will be throwing for another team. Davis and Hellickson will be starting by the end of the year.

There are a lot of closers who either are in bad situations, or simply, do not have the talent to be the closer for the year. Turnover will be larger than usual this year.

Why are people selecting Delmon Young in drafts?

The Drew's will make more money during their careers than the Upton's.

The Upton's will put up better numbers than the Drew's. Life isn't fair.

Jimmy Rollins only stole seven more bases and scored only two more runs than Mark Reynolds. Reynolds hit for a higher avg, and obliterated Rollins in home runs and rbi, yet Rollins goes first in most drafts.

Is this the 'Rollins Shuffle' or the 'Reynolds Regression' thought process?

The best ball player in baseball, who is NOT fantasy relevant? Brendan Ryan

CC Sabathia turns 30 this year. This eliminates him from my 'Big Guys club'.

As examples,Bartolo Colon and Livan Hernandez numbers declined at 30, injuries came soon after. Be afraid, be very afraid.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 7:42 am

While I agree that CC's has crossed over that barrier. Hard to ever exclude this bear of a man from any "BIG" guys club.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 8:50 am

Phat until 30, Ryan, Fat afterwards

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 10:06 am

Since this is Junk and we're talking 'Big Guys'... How about Boston's signing of John Lackey?

Lackey is 31, been on the dl two years in a row and seemed to be regressing, yet, Boston hands him 82 million over five years?

The Red Sox obtained Lackey, Beltre, Scutaro, and Cameron over the off season.

The Yankees got Granderson, Vazquez, and Nick Johnson.

Advantage Yankees.

[ February 15, 2010, 04:09 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 10:17 am

Staying in the A.L. East, here is Toronto by position:

C- Buck

1B- Overbay

2B- Hill

3B- Encarnacion

SS- Gonzalez

OF- Wells, Lind, Snider

DH- Ruiz

My first three thoughts would be,

Who leads off for this team?

Can they set some kind of record for least team speed?

Without Halladay, is there any doubt where they finish in this division?

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 10:32 am

I don't know Dan - I'll give the Yanks a slight edge - but let's look at the whole picture. yes Theo didn't make as big a splash but he focused on defense with a lot of those pickups.

It's hard to quantify what Beltre, Scutaro and Cameron's defense will bring to the Sox this season.

Got to think it helps their entire pitching staff.

Look at the rotations:

CC - Burnett - Vazquez - Petitte - Joba/Hughes

Beckett - Lester - Lackey - Dice K - Bucholz/Wakefield

With the new D - I like the Boston staff top to bottom more.

I like the Boston bullpen more.

Check out the OF's -

Winn/Gardner - Granderson - Swisher

Cameron - Ellsbury - Drew/Hermida

I like Boston's more

Catcher - Edge Boston

Infield - fine the Yanks have the edge here- but Boston still has Youk and Pedroia - and Boston has the edge at DH - even if Big Papi doesn't come all the way back.

Yanks also subtracted key clubhouse guys. How do we measure that? Melky was Cano's best friend on the team and helped keep that team loose. Masui and Damon were reliable, steady veterans. If Grandy struggles - how will he handle the Bronx???

We'll see - it'll be fun to watch as usual.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 10:46 am

Good Junk, Ryan.

For the money and level that these teams are at, they should both be ashamed of their outfields.

Keep Ellsbury and Granderson, the rest most likely will not be back next year.

Carl Crawford should make a lot of money when the bidding war starts next year.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 10:49 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Good Junk, Ryan.

Always happy to oblige

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 10:58 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Staying in the A.L. East, here is Toronto by position:

C- Buck

1B- Overbay

2B- Hill

3B- Encarnacion

SS- Gonzalez

OF- Wells, Lind, Snider

DH- Ruiz

My first three thoughts would be,

Who leads off for this team?

Can they set some kind of record for least team speed?

Without Halladay, is there any doubt where they finish in this division? Pretty funny when you look at it - Felipe Lopez perhaps??? Just fired Boras - maybe he'll get an offer.

TOXIC ASSETS · Post by **TOXIC ASSETS** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 11:04 am

I targeted Manny Ramirez and was more than happy to get him in the 4th round of my recent slow draft. This is a Hall of Famer. I would agree that the power will be down in his post-steroids condition, but all the rest of the numbers will be there. I probably got 1st or 2nd round production with this pick.

And I also disagree with you on CC. He's not going to break down this season. Maybe in a few years, but not this year.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 11:42 am

As I have said before - he is due for one of his oblique strains that slowed him down in '05 and '06.

Take a look at his '06 numbers and see what missing a month and a half can do to his numbers. Still very good - but no longer 3rd/4th rd material. To deny that he will always be at risk of injury due to his size and weight is to ignore his own history.

The Franchise · Post by **The Franchise** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:47 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Good Junk, Ryan.

For the money and level that these teams are at, they should both be ashamed of their outfields.

Keep Ellsbury and Granderson, the rest most likely will not be back next year.

Carl Crawford should make a lot of money when the bidding war starts next year. I have no doubt that Theo signed Beltre as a 1 year rental until Mauer becomes a free agent. Then Youk will move to 3rd and if he signs a long term deal, V-Mart will move to 1st. If not, he will walk and the Sox will find a 1stBaseman or Lars might be ready. They will go after him hard just like the Yanks will too. Mauer might be looking at A-Rod money.

Crawford: see above, same thing.

Bobby D · Post by **Bobby D** » Mon Feb 15, 2010 4:42 pm

Originally posted by The Franchise:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Good Junk, Ryan.

For the money and level that these teams are at, they should both be ashamed of their outfields.

Keep Ellsbury and Granderson, the rest most likely will not be back next year.

Carl Crawford should make a lot of money when the bidding war starts next year. I have no doubt that Theo signed Beltre as a 1 year rental until Mauer becomes a free agent. Then Youk will move to 3rd and if he signs a long term deal, V-Mart will move to 1st. If not, he will walk and the Sox will find a 1stBaseman or Lars might be ready. They will go after him hard just like the Yanks will too. Mauer might be looking at A-Rod money.

Crawford: see above, same thing. [/QUOTE]Anyone who gives Mauer AROD money or anything near AROD money is making a bad signing. Signing a catcher with questionable power potential is as risky a signing as they come. I guess we will see this year if Mauer duplicates his power numbers. Hell, the Twins may have him locked up long term before the season starts. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Feb 19, 2010 6:33 am

Well, here are some numbers (stuff) that inspire opinion (junk)...so here's some STUNK!

Early divisional lines came out!

At first glance, the teams that look like they have a shot and have decent paybacks are the Giants (+300) LOVE their rotation, and feel their hitting and depth improved. The Tigers at (+500) look OK, as that division seems up for grabs. ...and taking both the Mariners and Rangers, because the Angels look beatable, and the A's offense shouldn't be enough.

[ February 19, 2010, 12:48 PM: Message edited by: sportsbettingman ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Feb 19, 2010 6:43 am

I'd spend a buck or two on a Mariners-Marlins World Series at those odds.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Fri Feb 19, 2010 6:53 am

Here's some fun "projected wins" to compare the odds to...

http://baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/

http://baseballprojection.com/2010/standings2010.htm

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Feb 19, 2010 7:33 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

Well, here are some numbers (stuff) that inspire opinion (junk)...so here's some STUNK!

Early divisional lines came out!

At first glance, the teams that look like they have a shot and have decent paybacks are the Giants (+300) LOVE their rotation, and feel their hitting and depth improved. The Tigers at (+500) look OK, as that division seems up for grabs. ...and taking both the Mariners and Rangers, because the Angels look beatable, and the A's offense shouldn't be enough. Are the Pirates and Nationals THAT bad? I don't think they'll win, but if I can throw down $10 and win $1000, yeah, I can see a path to victory. How many times over the past ten years has the team projected to finish last won the division ? 5 or 6 at least?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Feb 19, 2010 7:39 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

The Drew's will make more money during their careers than the Upton's.

The Upton's will put up better numbers than the Drew's. Life isn't fair.

Justin Upton just hit 26 home runs with a .366 OBP as a 21 year old. He will make more money than the rest of the Uptons and the Drews combined.

[ February 19, 2010, 01:40 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Feb 19, 2010 8:53 am

Looks good for him now, doesen't it? So much changes though; injury, bad signings, even worse economy, change of baseball contracts.....I'll stay with the money in the bank.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Fri Feb 19, 2010 10:49 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Looks good for him now, doesen't it? So much changes though; injury, bad signings, even worse economy, change of baseball contracts.....I'll stay with the money in the bank. Can you argue injury based on your original assertion, which is that the Uptons will have better numbers? If he's playing and he gets the numbers, he gets the greenbacks. Am I worried that a hometown discount or a bad economy will result in him getting 20 million over his career rather than 200 million? No, I'm not worried about that. Those are minor considerations.