Worst Rotation in the Majors?

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 7:03 am

In doing my research, I look at each team's starting rotation and look at who is "draft-worthy".. even guys who I would take in round 30 are considered... that said, when I came to my Cleveland Indians, I only saw one "draft-worthy" starter - Justin Masterson. Wow. I have the Indians as having the worst rotation in the majors this year. Here's my breakdown of the bottom 3:

1. Cleveland Indians (Masterson and...? Maybe Scott Lewis and Hector Rondon will be called up, but that's about it)

2. Washington Nationals (though to be fair I really have no idea which 5 they will go with, but they have more legit options than the Indians either way) - Strasburg, Mock, JD Martin(maybe), Lannan(maybe)

3. Pittsburgh Pirates (Not a single ace or even #2 or 3, though Duke, Maholm, Ohlendorf, Morton, and McCutchen could all be late draft-worthy starters)

4. Kansas City Royals (Greinke is an ace, but after him they have virtually nothing - Meche, Hochevar, and Tejeda are borderline draft-worthy)

There's some other bad rotations and ones filled with lots of question marks and injuries, but they all have potential... I don't see any teams as being anywhere close to as bad as these 4...

What do you guys think?

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 7:20 am

I think when I saw the topic and you posted it that I hoped that we were not going to have to break the bad news to you...

I completely agree. 2nd worst is not even close IMO when you have a Strasberg or a Greinke on another staff.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 7:31 am

dave- if i was as tall as you and as young, i would hop on a plane to the tribes spring training site and ask for a tryout. "hi, i may be less than dave, but i know i have more than some of these guys".

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 7:41 am

Hey Dave

Totally agree on tribe and other teams listed Another one are the blue jays offense will not be as a good Bautista leading off There division will make Romero Marcum Morrow is only one I would look at Rez and Cecil Whole staff 4.50 era with 1.42 whip

IMO

Marty

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 7:58 am

Sorry, I just don't see the Indians as bad as the Nats. The Nats are god-awful. The Indians aren't good, but at least the Indians have groundballers and some of them don't walk too many so they can do something. The Nats pitchers don't have any tangible skills whatsoever. They can't K guys, get groundballs, or even pitch to contact well. Yeah, maybe Strasburg will pitch 120 innings this year, but other than that it is abominable. The only comparison I can think of isn't even listed here: the Mariner's bottom three. If I had to list the worst 8 pitchers lined up for starting gigs at the beginning of the season, the top 5 Nats and bottom 3 Mariners could conceivably fill the entire list.

The Blue Jays, yeah, they suck, but there is potential there. I can see every one of those guys break out under the right circumstance. Is there any of the Nats top 5 that you can see breaking out for even like 7 K's per 9 (superstar of the staff, Mock excepted)? These guys would be lucky to get 5.

[ March 01, 2010, 02:09 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 8:48 am

As an NL Central hitter, I'd be feeling good.

In two-thirds of my division games - vs mil, hou, cin and pit - Gallardo looks like the only ace in an otherwise blah Brewer rotation. Wandy's good at home for the Stros but he's a middle of the order guy on the road and Roy's best days are behind and is unlikely to make it through a season. In Cin and Pit, it doesn't look like anyone sniffs a sub-4.00. Cake walk for the Cards this season?

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 9:44 am

Blue Jays Rotation:

SP Shaun Marcum

SP Ricky Romero

SP Marc Rzepczynski

SP Brandon Morrow

SP Brett Cecil

I dunno about you, but I'd draft all of those guys... there's no bona-fide ace, but every one of them is likely better than every pitcher on the Tribe and Nats(aside from maybe Strasburg) and there's tons of upside there

Mariners Rotation:

SP Felix Hernandez (Verducci)

SP Cliff Lee

SP Ryan Rowland-Smith

SP Ian Snell

SP Doug Fister/Yusmeiro Petit (Erik Bedard)

You can't say a rotation with 2 of the top 15 starters is one of the worst regardless of the bottom 3, but that's not even right cuz Rowland-Smith is better than everyone on the Tribe too... he's a solid #3 IMO.. and oh yeah, Bedard will be back in a few months then that rotation is ridiculous

Milwaukee Brewers Rotation:

SP Yovani Gallardo

SP Randy Wolf

SP Doug Davis

SP Manny Parra

SP Jeff Suppan

Not great, but again they have an ace and a solid #2, and even some upside with Parra

Cincinnati Reds Rotation:

SP Aaron Harang

SP Johnny Cueto

SP Bronson Arroyo

SP Homer Bailey

SP Matt Maloney/Aroldis Chapman

Harang could have a mid 3 ERA, Cueto and Chapman have a lot of upside, Bailey and Arroyo aren't terrible and I like Maloney as a sleeper if he wins the #5 spot

I just don't think any other team is nearly as bad as those bottom 4...

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 10:21 am

The biggest problem with the Tribe's rotation and possibly projecting them - is we just don't really know who it will be. I agree Masterson is the safest guy to draft, then we have Carmona. I doubt too many NFBC'ers will be biting on him - but I guarantee he'll be picked up in a lot of leagues FAAB by the end of April/May - simply because he'll be getting the ball every 5 days.

Then we have Westbrook - who is coming back from injury.

The rest of the rotation is a question mark. Huff, Laffey, Sowers, Lewis - yeah not much upside there. But they do have a collection of nice young arms in Rondon, Carrasco, Mitch Talbot, Jeanmar Gomez, Scott Barnes, Jason Knapp and Nick Hagadone. If it's RD 30 and I'm throwing darts Carrasco and Rondon look pretty good to me just because of how uninspiring the prospective #4-5 guys are.

And they have the X-factor of a new pitching coach in Tim Belcher and new bullpen coach Sandy Alomar Jr.

[ March 01, 2010, 04:27 PM: Message edited by: Ryan Carey ]

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 11:30 am

Ryan, no chance you see Barnes, Knapp, or Hagadone this year in the majors... they're years away and have plenty of developing to do. I think Scott Lewis and David Huff have #3 SP upside, but not sure Lewis will get another chance until he re-proves himself in the minors again... Sowers, Laffey, and Carmona will be done halfway through the year... Rondon has the most upside of any starter and is pretty close so we'll likely see him at some point in April or May when the Tribe is tired of seeing Sowers/Laffey/Carmona fail miserably.. Gomez should spend most of the season in the minors, though we could see him in the majors at some point this year, he's not nearly as close as Rondon... Carrasco has already played in AAA quite a bit, but he lacks polish and will need to develop further to ever have a chance at beign a solid starter in the majors... Mitch Talbot is just filler.. hopefully this year will end with a rotation of Masterson, Westbrook, Lewis, Huff, and Rondon... at least then I can say we're on the right track... it'll still be another 2 years before we can contend though, and that's assuming that a few of Hagadone, Knapp, Rondon, Gomez, Carrasco, de la Cruz, etc develop into solid starters... the offense is ready now and will only get better in coming years

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 12:12 pm

Look I'm not saying you'll see barnes, Knapp and hagadone this year - that's why they are at the bottom of the list.

But don't dismiss Talbot so quickly. He pitched pretty well in the AFL this year - even getting the start in the championship game when Strasburg got scratched. He's 25 - so it's now or never for him.

Oh if the Indians had only told the commisioner's office to buzz off when they backed off signing Lincecum the year they drafted him.

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 12:21 pm

I actually drafted Lewis last year at the end of the main but injuries made it a lost year for him. If he maintains good health, I definitely see him getting a chance sooner than later. Dave, Ryan, what do you guys think? I know Huff finished respectable last year and I think he takes a small step forward. I'd say a large step forward before 2009 which I just can't ignore. After Westbrook and Masterson, the Tribe's rotation is a total mess and definitely worst in the majors - worse than Washington (once Strasburg enters the rotation). Your opening day starter is returning from Tommy John surgery- yikes. Sad thing for Westbrook is that I think he was in for a career year last year before the injury. For whatever reason, he was having a great spring, an spike in his k/9, and then whammo.

How about a team whose rotation will be better than expected? Maybe a team who is expected to finish middle of the pack or worse that could finish top 10:

I'm going with Arizona.

1. Haren

2. Webb

3. E Jackson

4. Kennedy

5. Buckner?

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 12:46 pm

Mariners Rotation:

SP Felix Hernandez (Verducci)

SP Cliff Lee

SP Ryan Rowland-Smith

SP Ian Snell

SP Doug Fister/Yusmeiro Petit (Erik Bedard)

You can't say a rotation with 2 of the top 15 starters is one of the worst regardless of the bottom 3, but that's not even right cuz Rowland-Smith is better than everyone on the Tribe too... he's a solid #3 IMO.. and oh yeah, Bedard will be back in a few months then that rotation is ridiculousIf you go back and reread my post, I wasn't talking about their whole staff and how it ranks against Cleveland et al. I was talking about how bad their bottom three are. And they are as bad as anyone's bottom three. And, dude, seriously, Ryan Rowland Smith is not a good pitcher. The ERA I have him down for is 4.62. Write that down.

I also said nothing about Bedard since he won't be starting the year in the rotation, but while we are on the topic, they didn't sign him for a mere $1 million because he will be back before you know it, pitching like Cy Young. That is the Mark-Prior-you-never-know-if-this-will-be-the-year-he-makes-it-back contract.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 1:01 pm

Dave - with the contract the indians have Carmona signed to - they have EVERY reason to keep throwing him out there to see if he can figure it out. And the fact is there is nothing wrong with the guys stuff - it's all mental.

Now I'm not advocating anyone draft the guy - I did that last year. But how many former 19 game winners are around in Round 30?

Carmona's under contract for 2010 and '11 - then the Tribe has options in '12, '13 and '14. With the economics of our team you better HOPE he remembers how to throw strikes again.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 6:44 pm

Ryan, Carmona was smoke and mirrors even when he had his good season. He never dominated hitters, pedestrian K numbers. He has good stuff, but isn't a good enough pitcher. Wins are a useless stat to me.. Russ Ortiz won 20 games and had a decent year at best when he won the CY Young. No one who knows their stuff was fooled-it's a stat based on luck, run support, etc. Yes, doing things like pitching longer into games and being efficient help a lot, but ultimately it is not the measure of a pitcher's skill. I think when Millwood led the league in ERA with the Tribe he had like 9 Wins... yep.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Mar 01, 2010 6:48 pm

Rich, I still like Lewis a lot, he's just injury-prone and I don't hear much about him getting another shot.. with the revolving door that will be the Tribe's rotation this year though, I gotta think he gets another shot at some point - maybe May. I still like Huff too, at least more than fellow soft-tossing lefties Sowers and Laffey, though he doesn't appear to be in line for a rotation spot at this point. As for Talbot, I don't see him doing any better than a 4.50 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP, but here's hopin...