Young Power/Speed Outfielders Flying Up the Boards

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Sun Mar 28, 2010 2:19 pm

Nelson Cruz, Andrew McCutcheon, Carlos Gonzales.....

What the hell???

Each of these players jumped at least two rounds (in some cases, three) from the beginning of the early draft season to their final lofty draft positions in this week's Main Events.

Sometimes you just have to say NO!

I only have Cargo on one of my teams (achieved at a reasonable, but still high draft round of seven), and you won't find Cruz or McCutcheon on any of my teams.

I may be wrong, but where these guys were going might be the ceiling of their upside this year (though not for their career).

For the most part I went with post-hype power/speed outfielders who had fallen out of favor.....Rasmus, Maybin, Millidge, Young or some who haven't been hyped quite as much like Stubbs.

The thing is for the most part, I didn't have to pay a top 15 round pick for these guys.

We'll see which or if either strategy works out.

Glenn

[ March 28, 2010, 08:22 PM: Message edited by: Glenneration X ]

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sun Mar 28, 2010 2:42 pm

1. nelson cruz ain't young

2. i guess you wouldn't have drafted braun in year two or any other young player that shows great numbers year one?

each player has to be judged case-by-case IMO.

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Sun Mar 28, 2010 2:47 pm

I think you're dead wrong about Cruz.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sun Mar 28, 2010 2:50 pm

cruz will put up power numbers for as long as he's healthy. i'm conservative when it comes to speed estimates for lumberjacks though

Frozen Tundra · Post by **Frozen Tundra** » Sun Mar 28, 2010 2:55 pm

I don't think Cruz falls in the same category as McCutchen and Cargo.

Nelson Cruz missed about 100 ABs last year, some cause he was nicked up, some cause the Rangers were using that chickenshit OF rotation with Bird Jones JHam Murphy and even Borbon.

Well, two of those fellas are out and Cruz will have his 550 ABs this year. If we use the same extrapolation technique used on CarGo, Cruz ends up at least a 90r/40 hr/90rbi/25 sb guy. If those are not second or third round numbers, I don't know what it is. I took Cruz early third round and thought I was lucky. By comparison, the younger Upton is getting drafted in the first round in a lot of leagues, including ours (NYC #5) and his numbers on about 530 ABS last year were 84/26/86/20. Now keep in mind: This guy just got paid big time and money can play crazy things to the mind of a 22 year old. Cruz is still playing to earn a windfall. I'm feeling pretty good.

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Sun Mar 28, 2010 2:58 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

1. nelson cruz ain't young

2. i guess you wouldn't have drafted braun in year two or any other young player that shows great numbers year one?

each player has to be judged case-by-case IMO. Don't get me wrong....I had each and everyone of these players in my sights.

In several of my draft plans, I envisioned one or more of these guys on my team....I just didn't anticipate them rising so far to their eventual lofty positions.....not just in my drafts, but in every draft.

This isn't a criticism of anyone for taking them where they did....in fact, it takes balls to target a guy and then go out and MAKE SURE you get them.

You personally know how much I like Cargo....I've also spoken to you & others about Cruz & McCutcheon. I'm just trying to figure out the dynamic that makes a guy jump so far so fast and in so many drafts. I just feel the draft position of everyone of these guys rose too far & I'm trying to understand how the universal rise happened.

You and I even debated about how I let Cargo go in the 6th because I thought I could still get him in the seventh. I could have easily missed out on him there as well and totally blanked on these guys.

Who knows....I also could have started this thread because I'm grumpy that I didn't get any of these guys on most of my teams....

.

Glenn

[ March 28, 2010, 09:50 PM: Message edited by: Glenneration X ]

LONG GONE · Post by **LONG GONE** » Sun Mar 28, 2010 4:08 pm

It has to do with the inventory. If you picked up speed in the middle (ss or 2nd). You din't need to push these players up. If you missed and went with power with your 1st or 2nd pick, you pushed these players up. If you don't push them up your left with a Judy.......giving all your edge back.

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 12:50 am

I am a big Cruz fan as well. I was happy to get him at 3-13 in NY. Thought he would be gone way before that. Mark and Glenn knew how much I wanted him in 3rd. Still feel he has upside from numbers of last year. Was nicked up last year. If he gets those extra 100 abs 38-40 20 sbs 90 runs and with that line up 102 rbis Think average goes up to 270 based on 2 years ago he batted in the 300 something in minors. Cargo is going to put up great numbers and getting him in rounds 5-7 will make him draft day bargain. I took Upton at 1-13 thinking he will give me Braun numbers maybe too early but got to go with my gut. Glenn great draft in NY Mark both your teams are solid jumped on the Vlad band wagon lol Thrillied with team in NY I was in NY 1 tough league with Ron in it Great guy Very down to earth first time I got to talk to him. Happy with Upton Rollins cruz Greinke as 1st 4 Good luck all

Marty

team z · Post by **team z** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 1:16 am

I'm sure all three will do well this year but I sure passed on them all. Cruz is always an injury risk, CarGo is coming off one good second half and oddly enough if McCutchen's power does not show up it's amazing how close his projections would be to Scott Posednicks.

Scary Stuff for high draft choices.

kgrady · Post by **kgrady** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 3:39 am

I would have selected Andrew McCutchen in the 5th round had he still been on the board. He went in the 4th round, which was not surprising given his rising ADP. Jayson Werth went in the 2nd round in my league; Nelson Cruz in the 3rd. Given the heavy emphasis on power/speed, I don't understand the low ADP for Alex Rios. Sure he's coming off of a disppointing season, but he still had 17 HRs and 24 SBs last year. He's 29 years old, playing in a good hitters park for a manager who loves to steal bases. Yet his ADP is the 8th round? I saw him go in the 10th round in one league. The White Sox picked up his big contract, so you know he's going to play regularly. Why is Rios so undervalued when other power/speed guys are going so much earlier?

Kevin

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 4:13 am

Originally posted by kgrady:

I would have selected Andrew McCutchen in the 5th round had he still been on the board. He went in the 4th round, which was not surprising given his rising ADP. Jayson Werth went in the 2nd round in my league; Nelson Cruz in the 3rd. Given the heavy emphasis on power/speed, I don't understand the low ADP for Alex Rios. Sure he's coming off of a disppointing season, but he still had 17 HRs and 24 SBs last year. He's 29 years old, playing in a good hitters park for a manager who loves to steal bases. Yet his ADP is the 8th round? I saw him go in the 10th round in one league. The White Sox picked up his big contract, so you know he's going to play regularly. Why is Rios so undervalued when other power/speed guys are going so much earlier?

Kevin Rios has a second round body attached to a 25th round head.

We have to buy the whole package.

[ March 29, 2010, 10:14 AM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

SUPERFLY · Post by **SUPERFLY** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 5:16 am

Originally posted by kgrady:

I would have selected Andrew McCutchen in the 5th round had he still been on the board. He went in the 4th round, which was not surprising given his rising ADP. Jayson Werth went in the 2nd round in my league; Nelson Cruz in the 3rd. Given the heavy emphasis on power/speed, I don't understand the low ADP for Alex Rios. Sure he's coming off of a disppointing season, but he still had 17 HRs and 24 SBs last year. He's 29 years old, playing in a good hitters park for a manager who loves to steal bases. Yet his ADP is the 8th round? I saw him go in the 10th round in one league. The White Sox picked up his big contract, so you know he's going to play regularly. Why is Rios so undervalued when other power/speed guys are going so much earlier?

Kevin I agree 100%.....I have targeted Rios in drafts all season... I have taken him as soon as 7th round in a 15 teamer.

I guess this represents opportunity. An undervalued asset this year IMO.

Still young? Check

Reliable track record? Check

(prior to one unlucky season)

talented? Check

In a good hitters park? Check

Mgr that will run? check

Love him in 2010 for what he will cost....

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 5:27 am

Originally posted by SUPERFLY:

quote:Originally posted by kgrady:

I would have selected Andrew McCutchen in the 5th round had he still been on the board. He went in the 4th round, which was not surprising given his rising ADP. Jayson Werth went in the 2nd round in my league; Nelson Cruz in the 3rd. Given the heavy emphasis on power/speed, I don't understand the low ADP for Alex Rios. Sure he's coming off of a disppointing season, but he still had 17 HRs and 24 SBs last year. He's 29 years old, playing in a good hitters park for a manager who loves to steal bases. Yet his ADP is the 8th round? I saw him go in the 10th round in one league. The White Sox picked up his big contract, so you know he's going to play regularly. Why is Rios so undervalued when other power/speed guys are going so much earlier?

Kevin I agree 100%.....I have targeted Rios in drafts all season... I have taken him as soon as 7th round in a 15 teamer.

I guess this represents opportunity. An undervalued asset this year IMO.

Still young? Check

Reliable track record? Check

(prior to one unlucky season)

talented? Check

In a good hitters park? Check

Mgr that will run? check

Love him in 2010 for what he will cost.... [/QUOTE]Aloof? check

Hit over 17 homers only once? check

Usually reliable average down to .247? Check

Aloof? check and double check

I hate raining on a parade, but look at it the other way.

While Gonzalez, Cruz, and McCutchen were taken ahead of Rios and Rios has the same aptitude, guys like Chris Young, Delmon Young, and Kyle Blanks were taken behind Rios and also have many of the same abilities.

kgrady · Post by **kgrady** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 7:28 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

While Gonzalez, Cruz, and McCutchen were taken ahead of Rios and Rios has the same aptitude, guys like Chris Young, Delmon Young, and Kyle Blanks were taken behind Rios and also have many of the same abilities. True, guys like Chris Young, Delmon Young and Lastings Milledge have power/speed potential and have lower ADPs than Alex Rios. But each of those guys has (in my opinion) greater shortcomings. Chris Young is a career .235 hitter (Rios .281). Delmon Young has never reached 15 in either steals or homeruns. Milledge is very interesting, but he comes with the aloof tag as well. Kyle Blanks is a different type of player. More power, but not a speed guy.

Kevin

SUPERFLY · Post by **SUPERFLY** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 7:46 am

I cant believe I am defending Alex Rios.....

Its not like someone took David Wright with the 7th pick.....But here goes...

While i cant actually say any of your assessments of Rios above are not true, I can say that just about all the young power speed guys mentioned in that same sentence come with there own caveats.

Mccutchen, Blanks, Car-go and company have never played a full year in the majors. Cruz looks legit,but Young has had one solid year albeit with a .237 Avg....

If Rios Avg didnt crap the bed last year, nobody would have complained about his season...Prior to last season when he got off to a slow start and then traded in the middle of the year, he had 3 years in a row of .291 , .297, .302....

His underlying numbers are equal to, better than or close to Matt Kemp.... He strikes out less than Kemp, has walked more in the past and has a much better contact %....His ISO rates until last year compare with Kemp or were better....

I can remember seeing Alex Rios take BP at Fenway park in early Apr 2007.. He was putting balls in the stands with ease. He was outhitting Troy Glaus with ease....The sound of the ball off his bat was different from everyone else. I knew right then that something changed..he had the power.... I then remember the 2007 HR derby at the All star game..

Alex Rios battled Vlad in the finals and actually hit more HR than anyone that derby....I remember his batting stance and how fluid his swing was. I made my son pay attention to it and model his own swing after Rios. They are the Same tall lanky types...

I heard somewhere he Rios isgoing back to his earlier swing that was more fluid this season...

Although I hate to be defending Rios, I can see a MAtt kemP like season coming one day soon...

I can see why others may have been burned (myself included), but i would be willing to bet that by season end, Rios is as productive if not more productive than at least 2 of Mccutchen, Carlos gonzalez and Kyle blanks....or any of the unproven power/speed guys..

Just my gut feeling is all...

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 8:06 am

I have his BA at .275. It was one of those situations where last season looked more like a correction than an outlier as the baseball gods had a good laugh at our expense. 18 homers 16 SBs. I can see how he can beat that number of swipes easy, but I think when you factor in that he seems a legitimate head case the .275 and 18 only show up if his head does. I'm not sure it's a seventh round package.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 8:25 am

I got Rios later in the 14th round in last nights home league (12 team) draft.

I had to double check rotoworld for some injury I didn't know about when he kept lasting round after round. I was happy to have him as my OF4.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 10:36 am

Originally posted by SUPERFLY:

I cant believe I am defending Alex Rios.....

Its not like someone took David Wright with the 7th pick.....But here goes...

While i cant actually say any of your assessments of Rios above are not true, I can say that just about all the young power speed guys mentioned in that same sentence come with there own caveats.

Mccutchen, Blanks, Car-go and company have never played a full year in the majors. Cruz looks legit,but Young has had one solid year albeit with a .237 Avg....

If Rios Avg didnt crap the bed last year, nobody would have complained about his season...Prior to last season when he got off to a slow start and then traded in the middle of the year, he had 3 years in a row of .291 , .297, .302....

His underlying numbers are equal to, better than or close to Matt Kemp.... He strikes out less than Kemp, has walked more in the past and has a much better contact %....His ISO rates until last year compare with Kemp or were better....

I can remember seeing Alex Rios take BP at Fenway park in early Apr 2007.. He was putting balls in the stands with ease. He was outhitting Troy Glaus with ease....The sound of the ball off his bat was different from everyone else. I knew right then that something changed..he had the power.... I then remember the 2007 HR derby at the All star game..

Alex Rios battled Vlad in the finals and actually hit more HR than anyone that derby....I remember his batting stance and how fluid his swing was. I made my son pay attention to it and model his own swing after Rios. They are the Same tall lanky types...

I heard somewhere he Rios isgoing back to his earlier swing that was more fluid this season...

Although I hate to be defending Rios, I can see a MAtt kemP like season coming one day soon...

I can see why others may have been burned (myself included), but i would be willing to bet that by season end, Rios is as productive if not more productive than at least 2 of Mccutchen, Carlos gonzalez and Kyle blanks....or any of the unproven power/speed guys..

Just my gut feeling is all... There was no question of the physical ability.

Rios hit more home runs in the All-Star home run hitting contest, than he has hit in any one year.

That, that should scare anybody.

He is secure in a large contract, no bonuses, just a lot of money, no matter how he plays. He has gone to the Milton Bradley school of 'If it don't come easy, why do it?' school.

He has a chance of breaking out. Ozzie could find someway to kick him in the ass and get better numbers from him. Who knows?

I'll take the under though.

I don't see Matt Kemp coming from Rios at all. Kemp still has money to make and talent to flash.

A friend of mine has two dogs. He's a baseball fan and didn't name his dogs till they were puppies. He wanted to know their personalities first, before giving them their names.

It turned out that one of the dogs would tirelessly chase a ball and never want to be away from them. He called that dog, Dustin. After Dustin Pedroia and his mentality about baseball. The other one could care less about balls, but loved eating time. He named that dog, Aubrey. In his mind, Aubrey Huff is one of the biggest loafers in baseball.

Rios, is more like Aubrey.

[ March 29, 2010, 04:50 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

The Mighty Men · Post by **The Mighty Men** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 10:49 am

The Alex Rios debate exemplifies why he is taken in the 8th round. 4th round talent and a terrible year.

During one of the first slow drafts of this year, my partner John said he was going to take Rios in round 8. I replied "That guy sucks! Didn't you see him last year? Terrible!" Then I came full circle on him and we ended up taking him at 8.15 last Saturday in the main.

I'll go with the speed/power combo upside and a rebound year for Rios.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 11:09 am

if anyone can fix rios it is ozzie. ozzie was very patient at the plate and never swung at a bad pitch. he had lots of power and was a tremendous base stealer. he will teach it all to alex. look at ozzies year when he was 29- that is what you can expect from alex. no worries.

SUPERFLY · Post by **SUPERFLY** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 11:17 am

hey Dough B,

Thats a pretty good story.

Funny actually..

But I am still taking the over this year on Rios..

But Rios hit 19 HR in 2007 HR derby...5 rd 1, 12 rd 2 and 2 in the finals... Vlad had won it with 17 total HR, but 3 in the finals...

Rios did hit 24 HR a couple years ago....

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Mar 29, 2010 1:30 pm

All this talk about POWER/SPEED, and no mention of Jay Jay Bruce!??? (Just stole his FOURTH base of the spring!)

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Sat Apr 17, 2010 8:52 am

The Cruz hype certainly appears to have been accurate. No steals yet, but 7 HR, 15 RBIs so far. He kills the ball to the opposite field

Dirt Dogs · Post by **Dirt Dogs** » Sat Apr 17, 2010 9:00 am

Everyone kills the ball to opposite field (RF) at yankee stadium!!

High Octane Baseball · Post by **High Octane Baseball** » Sat Apr 17, 2010 10:33 am

im very happy getting McCutch in my draft and so far his 6-6 steals is giving me the lead in my league in steals where i was projected to be last...and i still might finish last but so far so good..