The list of our past main event champs is very short. There are only six of them since 2004. So feel free to use your overdose of skepticism on the following statistics.
-You can be "adequate" in your average and stolen bases, but you have to dominate runs and own HRs and RBIs.
-You can be "adequate" in your wins and saves, but you have to dominate ERA and WHIP and absolutely own strikeouts.
Definitions:
"Adequate" - in the top 20-25%
Dominate - top 10 percent
Own - top 7 percent (top 5 for Ks)
The most "abandoned" category: saves. Top 28 percent on average. In fact half of the past champs have gotten away with sub 30% rankings; the 2006 champ barely cracked the 70 ceiling -good for a 43%.
The "must own" cat: Ks. Top 5. F I V E on average. Five of the past six were inside top 10%, only the first ever champ got away with 1250 Ks which were still good for top 16 percent. Half of the past champs were top two percent!
History lessons - Not all things are created equal
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Frozen Tundra
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History lessons - Not all things are created equal
"Imagination is everything. It is the preview of life's coming attractions"
-Albert Einstein
-Albert Einstein
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sportsbettingman
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History lessons - Not all things are created equal
Excellent post, and excellent signature! 
"The only reason for time is so that everything doesn't happen at once."
~Albert Einstein
~Albert Einstein
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Frozen Tundra
- Posts: 199
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History lessons - Not all things are created equal
Thank you betting man, but quoting crazy locks is a bit like drafting Albert Pujols. You can't go wrong.
Let's have some more fun with this as people seem to be all ears:
Q: What is this deal with the stolen bases? How many do you need?
A: People seem to have a fetish with this category, which is, if we were to look at past champions numbers, the second least important of the offensive categories after batting avg. Yet guys here seem to get more excited at Nyjer Morgan than Katie Morgan. You need 175 SB on average, so basically if you drafted Ellsbury and a 30 SB speedy guy the rest of your team can run like a Molina and you'll be set. People have been champs with as little as 130.
Q: What about those long balls? Is 280 enough?
A: No dice. 305 is the norm and basically if you're sub 280 you're playing for second place. So if your first three offensive players are say Hanley, Crawford, Pedrioa you're behind the 8 already. You're asking the rest of your team to hit over 22 boppers a head. You'd have to be too good or too lucky to find that in your middle and garbage rounds.
Q: Runs and Ribis over a thousand, right?
A: Make that one thousand one hundred. Amazingly, the average is the same here: The magic number is 1152. To be the champ you have to run and knock in at least 1,100. Anything below that is not gonna cut it. So since 100/100 guys do not grow on trees, make sure you get some 90/90 guys there.
Q: And the batting average?
Being average in batting average is excellent. 280 is the champ's norm. Take that Ichiro!
Next: I'm bitchin' about pitchin'!
Let's have some more fun with this as people seem to be all ears:
Q: What is this deal with the stolen bases? How many do you need?
A: People seem to have a fetish with this category, which is, if we were to look at past champions numbers, the second least important of the offensive categories after batting avg. Yet guys here seem to get more excited at Nyjer Morgan than Katie Morgan. You need 175 SB on average, so basically if you drafted Ellsbury and a 30 SB speedy guy the rest of your team can run like a Molina and you'll be set. People have been champs with as little as 130.
Q: What about those long balls? Is 280 enough?
A: No dice. 305 is the norm and basically if you're sub 280 you're playing for second place. So if your first three offensive players are say Hanley, Crawford, Pedrioa you're behind the 8 already. You're asking the rest of your team to hit over 22 boppers a head. You'd have to be too good or too lucky to find that in your middle and garbage rounds.
Q: Runs and Ribis over a thousand, right?
A: Make that one thousand one hundred. Amazingly, the average is the same here: The magic number is 1152. To be the champ you have to run and knock in at least 1,100. Anything below that is not gonna cut it. So since 100/100 guys do not grow on trees, make sure you get some 90/90 guys there.
Q: And the batting average?
Being average in batting average is excellent. 280 is the champ's norm. Take that Ichiro!
Next: I'm bitchin' about pitchin'!
"Imagination is everything. It is the preview of life's coming attractions"
-Albert Einstein
-Albert Einstein
History lessons - Not all things are created equal
Originally posted by AZSteamers:
Thank you betting man, but quoting crazy locks is a bit like drafting Albert Pujols. You can't go wrong.
Let's have some more fun with this as people seem to be all ears:
Q: What is this deal with the stolen bases? How many do you need?
A: People seem to have a fetish with this category, which is, if we were to look at past champions numbers, the second least important of the offensive categories after batting avg. Yet guys here seem to get more excited at Nyjer Morgan than Katie Morgan. You need 175 SB on average, so basically if you drafted Ellsbury and a 30 SB speedy guy the rest of your team can run like a Molina and you'll be set. People have been champs with as little as 130.
Q: What about those long balls? Is 280 enough?
A: No dice. 305 is the norm and basically if you're sub 280 you're playing for second place. So if your first three offensive players are say Hanley, Crawford, Pedrioa you're behind the 8 already. You're asking the rest of your team to hit over 22 boppers a head. You'd have to be too good or too lucky to find that in your middle and garbage rounds.
Q: Runs and Ribis over a thousand, right?
A: Make that one thousand one hundred. Amazingly, the average is the same here: The magic number is 1152. To be the champ you have to run and knock in at least 1,100. Anything below that is not gonna cut it. So since 100/100 guys do not grow on trees, make sure you get some 90/90 guys there.
Q: And the batting average?
Being average in batting average is excellent. 280 is the champ's norm. Take that Ichiro!
Next: I'm bitchin' about pitchin'! Good stuff - I'll add my own Einstein Sig in this thread - now we just need bjoak to respond!
I think some of what you get to here connects to what I wrote in the "Lindy" thread. Guys get so obsessed with getting that 75/75 early or grabbing as many 20/20 speed guys - that they forget the value of rostering some serious power bats at different points.
Thank you betting man, but quoting crazy locks is a bit like drafting Albert Pujols. You can't go wrong.
Let's have some more fun with this as people seem to be all ears:
Q: What is this deal with the stolen bases? How many do you need?
A: People seem to have a fetish with this category, which is, if we were to look at past champions numbers, the second least important of the offensive categories after batting avg. Yet guys here seem to get more excited at Nyjer Morgan than Katie Morgan. You need 175 SB on average, so basically if you drafted Ellsbury and a 30 SB speedy guy the rest of your team can run like a Molina and you'll be set. People have been champs with as little as 130.
Q: What about those long balls? Is 280 enough?
A: No dice. 305 is the norm and basically if you're sub 280 you're playing for second place. So if your first three offensive players are say Hanley, Crawford, Pedrioa you're behind the 8 already. You're asking the rest of your team to hit over 22 boppers a head. You'd have to be too good or too lucky to find that in your middle and garbage rounds.
Q: Runs and Ribis over a thousand, right?
A: Make that one thousand one hundred. Amazingly, the average is the same here: The magic number is 1152. To be the champ you have to run and knock in at least 1,100. Anything below that is not gonna cut it. So since 100/100 guys do not grow on trees, make sure you get some 90/90 guys there.
Q: And the batting average?
Being average in batting average is excellent. 280 is the champ's norm. Take that Ichiro!
Next: I'm bitchin' about pitchin'! Good stuff - I'll add my own Einstein Sig in this thread - now we just need bjoak to respond!
I think some of what you get to here connects to what I wrote in the "Lindy" thread. Guys get so obsessed with getting that 75/75 early or grabbing as many 20/20 speed guys - that they forget the value of rostering some serious power bats at different points.
Mastersball
“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.” - Albert Einstein
“You have to learn the rules of the game. And then you have to play better than anyone else.” - Albert Einstein
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Frozen Tundra
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History lessons - Not all things are created equal
I've gotta keep beating this drum because people are still going crazy about rabbits: be it the Ferrari-type Ellsbury or the more affordable Ford-looking Morgan. Sorry people, numbers show you're against quite some odds.
Let's look a bit at recent history, year 2009. Let's analyze the first five teams, Bob Enzyte (the Champ), Chicks Dig the Long Ball, CCs Desperados, Men without Helmets, and Schwartzstops. They look different ok, but they have a lot of striking similarities, the most notable being the absence of the super "rabbits" of 2008 or Ellsbury, Reyes, Rollins, Taveres. But there are a lot of other interesting things too:
-All those teams have at least one big bat. By that I don't mean 30 HR bat. That's not big. All those teams have at least one of Pujols, Fielder, Howard, Reynolds. These guys are the only ones who hit over 40 hr in 2009.
-No wonder all these teams did their damage with their power and production - the lone exception being CCs team, who had a stellar pitching year allowing him to finish third overall. In almost all instances, they rank near the top in the power/production cats: runs, hr, rbi.
-And stolen bases? Not so much...the "leader" of that pack, Lindy's team. finished 44th. The second team (Chicks dig the long ball) finished an incredible 132nd in SBs. The other teams somewhere in between.
-And all these teams, with no exception, did not draft a pitcher in the first four rounds. Coincidentally enough, they all drafted a pitcher in the fifth.
So the moral of this story? Ellsbury/Lincecum teams, you have a mountain of odds to climb already.
Let's look a bit at recent history, year 2009. Let's analyze the first five teams, Bob Enzyte (the Champ), Chicks Dig the Long Ball, CCs Desperados, Men without Helmets, and Schwartzstops. They look different ok, but they have a lot of striking similarities, the most notable being the absence of the super "rabbits" of 2008 or Ellsbury, Reyes, Rollins, Taveres. But there are a lot of other interesting things too:
-All those teams have at least one big bat. By that I don't mean 30 HR bat. That's not big. All those teams have at least one of Pujols, Fielder, Howard, Reynolds. These guys are the only ones who hit over 40 hr in 2009.
-No wonder all these teams did their damage with their power and production - the lone exception being CCs team, who had a stellar pitching year allowing him to finish third overall. In almost all instances, they rank near the top in the power/production cats: runs, hr, rbi.
-And stolen bases? Not so much...the "leader" of that pack, Lindy's team. finished 44th. The second team (Chicks dig the long ball) finished an incredible 132nd in SBs. The other teams somewhere in between.
-And all these teams, with no exception, did not draft a pitcher in the first four rounds. Coincidentally enough, they all drafted a pitcher in the fifth.
So the moral of this story? Ellsbury/Lincecum teams, you have a mountain of odds to climb already.
"Imagination is everything. It is the preview of life's coming attractions"
-Albert Einstein
-Albert Einstein
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Frozen Tundra
- Posts: 199
- Joined: Tue Mar 31, 2009 6:00 pm
History lessons - Not all things are created equal
[ April 01, 2010, 10:28 PM: Message edited by: AZSteamers ]
"Imagination is everything. It is the preview of life's coming attractions"
-Albert Einstein
-Albert Einstein
History lessons - Not all things are created equal
Ellsbury/Lincecum teams, you have a mountain of odds to climb already. [/QB]The stats presented are interesting and could be a recipe for winning it all. Well done with putting this together. However, I still think teams can win by drafting rabbits.
I did a little research of my own. Had Lindy drafted Jacoby Ellsbury last year in the 3rd round instead of Alex Rios, he would have scored 34 plus more points. Granted Ellsbury was drafted in his league 2 picks earlier, but the stats show you can draft one of these guys and win.
Either way, great post and definately something to think about.
I did a little research of my own. Had Lindy drafted Jacoby Ellsbury last year in the 3rd round instead of Alex Rios, he would have scored 34 plus more points. Granted Ellsbury was drafted in his league 2 picks earlier, but the stats show you can draft one of these guys and win.
Either way, great post and definately something to think about.
History lessons - Not all things are created equal
Past years are past years and this year is this year. The formula for winning has not been determined yet. You dismiss avg, avg determines more than that cat itself. For every point in average there is a certain # of runs and rbis associated with that average. The lower you go below 280 in average the less chance you have of winning and i would say a 275 or below average has zero chance at the overall.
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Frozen Tundra
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History lessons - Not all things are created equal
I would not be as dismissive of past years. This is a stats game, and past numbers tell a lot to whomever wants to listen. I myself did exactly what the past said I should do.
Lindy's team could have drafted Ellsbury over Rios in the THIRD round. That's awesome, but let's not forget that he already had Pujols and Kemp. The point is one should not start his offense with a player like Ellsbury. And there is a good explanation for that:
-Let's compare top 10 power guys (ranked by HRs hit) to top 10 speed guys (by SBs, I am leaving out Rajai Davis because he did not have enough ABs) in 2009. The power guys hit 41 HRs on average, scored 100 runs, delivered 117 RBI, stole 7.5 bases, and had an average BA .278
The speed guys hit 13 HRs on average, scored 92 runs, delivered 62 RBI, stole 45 bases, and had an average BA .280
So let's say for simplicity's sake that AVG and Runs are a wash. I am clearly in driver's seat but taking a power guy over a speed guy as a have a huge advantage in two categories vs one.
The devil is in the details folks.
One more quick note regarding batting average:
Batting average is one category that does not matter a great deal to winning teams. Three out of five top teams of last year had an average below 280 for example, yet they still dominated power categories.
Lindy's team could have drafted Ellsbury over Rios in the THIRD round. That's awesome, but let's not forget that he already had Pujols and Kemp. The point is one should not start his offense with a player like Ellsbury. And there is a good explanation for that:
-Let's compare top 10 power guys (ranked by HRs hit) to top 10 speed guys (by SBs, I am leaving out Rajai Davis because he did not have enough ABs) in 2009. The power guys hit 41 HRs on average, scored 100 runs, delivered 117 RBI, stole 7.5 bases, and had an average BA .278
The speed guys hit 13 HRs on average, scored 92 runs, delivered 62 RBI, stole 45 bases, and had an average BA .280
So let's say for simplicity's sake that AVG and Runs are a wash. I am clearly in driver's seat but taking a power guy over a speed guy as a have a huge advantage in two categories vs one.
The devil is in the details folks.
One more quick note regarding batting average:
Batting average is one category that does not matter a great deal to winning teams. Three out of five top teams of last year had an average below 280 for example, yet they still dominated power categories.
"Imagination is everything. It is the preview of life's coming attractions"
-Albert Einstein
-Albert Einstein
History lessons - Not all things are created equal
Originally posted by Bama:
Past years are past years and this year is this year. The formula for winning has not been determined yet. You dismiss avg, avg determines more than that cat itself. For every point in average there is a certain # of runs and rbis associated with that average. The lower you go below 280 in average the less chance you have of winning and i would say a 275 or below average has zero chance at the overall. Batting average does not correlate terribly well with runs and RBI's. It sounds counter-intuitive but think about it: 10 points of batting average=one more hit per every 100 at bats. It's not a lot.
Past years are past years and this year is this year. The formula for winning has not been determined yet. You dismiss avg, avg determines more than that cat itself. For every point in average there is a certain # of runs and rbis associated with that average. The lower you go below 280 in average the less chance you have of winning and i would say a 275 or below average has zero chance at the overall. Batting average does not correlate terribly well with runs and RBI's. It sounds counter-intuitive but think about it: 10 points of batting average=one more hit per every 100 at bats. It's not a lot.
Chance favors the prepared mind.
History lessons - Not all things are created equal
Originally posted by Bobby D:
I did a little research of my own. Had Lindy drafted Jacoby Ellsbury last year in the 3rd round instead of Alex Rios, he would have scored 34 plus more points. how can you be certain of this? if he had drafted ellsbury, it likely would have changed his later drafts picks, no??
I did a little research of my own. Had Lindy drafted Jacoby Ellsbury last year in the 3rd round instead of Alex Rios, he would have scored 34 plus more points. how can you be certain of this? if he had drafted ellsbury, it likely would have changed his later drafts picks, no??
History lessons - Not all things are created equal
Originally posted by Gekko:
quote:Originally posted by Bobby D:
I did a little research of my own. Had Lindy drafted Jacoby Ellsbury last year in the 3rd round instead of Alex Rios, he would have scored 34 plus more points. how can you be certain of this? if he had drafted ellsbury, it likely would have changed his later drafts picks, no?? [/QUOTE]Maybe so, who knows? You can play the what if game for any given team in any given season. It is all about what actually happens that matters. I think this thread was very interesting, but I am not sold that it should be considered a blue print for success. While average and SB's were not huge factors in the teams winning it overall, in any given season a team could dominate those cats and and have lesser points in HR and RBI.
quote:Originally posted by Bobby D:
I did a little research of my own. Had Lindy drafted Jacoby Ellsbury last year in the 3rd round instead of Alex Rios, he would have scored 34 plus more points. how can you be certain of this? if he had drafted ellsbury, it likely would have changed his later drafts picks, no?? [/QUOTE]Maybe so, who knows? You can play the what if game for any given team in any given season. It is all about what actually happens that matters. I think this thread was very interesting, but I am not sold that it should be considered a blue print for success. While average and SB's were not huge factors in the teams winning it overall, in any given season a team could dominate those cats and and have lesser points in HR and RBI.