Thoughts about my Team - Installment 2

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Apr 19, 2010 5:16 am

Week Two Results – What a difference a week makes! Others probably had better pitching weeks, but not many and not many got the production I did. In eight games started, I got six wins. All of them were earned too as no pitcher who got wins gave up more than four runs. The high point was having Shields and Garza go into Boston and I get out with two wins. Shields was dominate though he served up a tater to Marco Scutaro in the fifth, and got gassed in the seventh giving up a homerun to Pedroia. However, with Garza’s dominate start, the two combined for twelve K’s, an ERA of 2.454, and a WHIP of 1.090. These two are very good, are making me look good as they were the first two starting pitchers I took in the eighth and ninth rounds, and are extremely lucky. Boston looked flat all weekend and I would not predict the same results once the Redsox get their mojo working. Garza was also very good in his other start, as well as Danks and Weaver were both dominate. Cook did not get a win in his start, but was serviceable. I knew Bonderman was a ticking time bomb, but had hoped that spacious Safeco and the rather anemic Mariner offense would let me get one more good start out of him. Wrong! He got lit up like a Christmas Tree, though strangely of his nine hits, eight were singles. Needless to say, without Bonderman’s start, my ERA and WHIP would have been significantly better, but I will take my 3.747 ERA, 1.2486 WHIP, 6 Wins, 51 K’s, and 2 Saves. I have not in the past had such good results, so until first pitch Week Three, I am going to bask in the sun.

For the year (all two weeks of it), I am exceeding my targets for ERA, Wins, and K’s by a very decent margin. I am right above my WHIP target (if Sonnanstine had not allowed the one runner inherited from Shields to score I would be right below) and am one off on my saves target. With Frasor out of a closer job and still not pitching well consistently, I am probably not going to make this up very soon. Other concerns about my pitching staff include the AL-heavy nature. My four top starters are all AL and two are in the East. That means most of my starters have a riskier profile than NL teams facing the Padres, Pirates, or Houston. Given my guys have exceeded expectations on games won compared to games started, I know there is a correction coming there. Probably my best NL starter, Lowe, is getting bit by control issues he needs to correct. I am getting good results, but need to get one more solid starter and hope that Webb comes back (looks like late May earliest/early June) in form. Four months of a vintage Webb could put me over the top.

Through Friday, my sticks were out of control. Because of them, when I woke up Saturday morning, I was actually leading my league and was in fifth place overall. I am not used to such lofty heights. My hitters must have sensed my confusion and went into the tank Saturday and Sunday. Still and all, for the week I ended up with a .2921 BA to go with R/RBI/HR/SB of 53/52/18/7 respectively. I got multiple homeruns out of AmRam, Victorino, Willingham, and especially Either (3) and Kemp (4). Through Friday, Either and Kemp were just putting on a show. Joey Votto lead my team with FOUR SB. My big speed guys (Furcal, Victorino, and Kemp) totaled two. Go figure.

Batting-wise for the year to date, I am right on or nicely ahead of all my counting stats. My BA (.2783) being the lone exception. My counting stats of R/RBI/HR/SB are 86/91/24/16 respectively. I still have not really had my best 14 out there yet and I have lost a few days of AB due to minor injuries. Even still, I am averaging 300 AB per week for these first two weeks and that is the major reason my counting stats are what they are.

Week Three Free Agents – For good or bad (mostly bad) certain players you once developed an interest in stick with you, even long after they should have faded into insignificance. One such player for me is David Bush. No matter how bad he has been, I always seem to find myself pouring over his game logs. Bush, by the luck of no viable alternatives, still has a primo NL pitching slot on a team, the Brewers, who should provide enough offense to give him a chance to win, if only he can hold his end up. Most recently, his end has been held up only to offer a target for a swift kick. In 2010 he is off to a good start and has two starts this week (at Washington and versus the Marlins), so I bid pretty strongly for him ($54). I overpaid by about $30, but I really felt he was the best starting pitcher still in the pool. I cut Melky Cabrera to get him. I watch a lot of Braves games and I am finding out probably what a lot of Yankee fans have known for years…this guy just does not have much, or so it seems to me. With Andruw still showing some (not much) signs of having a pulse and only four games from qualifying in the OF again, Cabrera was expendable.

I did not make a move this week to shore up the bullpen, but that will probably be my biggest priority next week. There are about a dozen pitchers out there who could get a chance to save this year, so I need to filter and place the odds on who will be the best candidate to help my team, especially if I keep racking up Wins and K’s and can afford to run three relievers out there.

Week Three Plans – I am now down two/thirds of my starters in the MI (Roberts and Tejada), though Tejada may be back pretty soon. I am getting Alex Gordon back on the corner and if (another big if) he can stay healthy, I view him as an upgrade over Garrett Atkins, who has been keeping the seat warm (if a better alternative presents itself, the Atkins experiment might be closing as he has not shown much yet). As long as Getz is gone, Gordon will not be pushed for AB by Callaspo, so his AB should be very regular.

My OFers Kemp, Either, Victorino, Willingham, DeJesus, and Carlos Guillen (UT) are carrying my team, which is what I hoped would happen given I had the first three by the fifth round of the draft. Tejada has a couple of HR and seven RBI’s through two weeks, but is batting .2391. Likewise, Aramis Rameriz his providing some nice counting stats, but his BA stinks. Both are very solid BA types, so they will turn things around. I need Roberts back sooner than later. With Tejada ailing too, I am going with Valbuena and Iwamura. These guys are decent back-ups, but long-term use may cause excessive spoilage. My catchers are not doing too bad and Soto got hot last week. He has a good BA and has already taken seven walks. Baker also has a great BA and six RBI’s already.

Using Bush in place of Bonderman (I am still holding on to Bonderman for some perverse reason) will get me ten starts this week as he has two (at Pittsburgh against Morton and versus Chicago against Zambrano) like Danks and Cook (at Washington against Stammen and versus Florida against Nat “Cy Young” Robertson). Garza (home), Shields (away), Weaver (home), and Lowe (home) each have one, though Lowe draws Philly and Halladay.

How was your week?

SlackerDan · Post by **SlackerDan** » Mon Apr 19, 2010 9:34 am

Nice Post ... Since you asked, my team sucks!

I would like to know if we can start the season over and have a re-draft ASAP!

And it comes down too my first 4 picks.

Prince Fielder

Justin Upton

D Jeter (he I am happy with)

Jason Bay

Others are doing well, B Matusz and D Price, both pitching like stars ... oh yeah, did I mention I have Wandy and Javier Vaquez ? They stink as well.

Thank goodness ... it is a LONG season

SlackerDan

Dirt Dogs · Post by **Dirt Dogs** » Mon Apr 19, 2010 9:43 am

- Lester has a ERA over 8

- Greinke stinks

- Verlander stinks

- Fielder has no HR

- Broxton has 1 save

Looks at previous years and what guys have done in april and what they finish with. The underachievers will begin to perform and the overachievers will regress to their mean. Baseball is a game of averages.

Just hope that your guys are healthy during the first month. That is the biggest statistic.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Apr 19, 2010 10:36 am

Originally posted by Dirt Dogs:

- Lester has a ERA over 8

- Greinke stinks

- Verlander stinks

- Fielder has no HR

- Broxton has 1 save

Looks at previous years and what guys have done in april and what they finish with. The underachievers will begin to perform and the overachievers will regress to their mean. Baseball is a game of averages.

Just hope that your guys are healthy during the first month. That is the biggest statistic. A favorite tried and true truism of mine is the one about sprint/marathon. This contest truly is a marathon and most players will revert to their good/bad selves soon enough. On my team, Victorino has 3 HR and 1 SB, while Votto has 1 HR and 4 SB. Something tells me those ratios will not hold.

[ April 19, 2010, 04:37 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Frozen Tundra · Post by **Frozen Tundra** » Tue Apr 20, 2010 4:48 am

Edwards, good luck with that Bush experiment. Tried something similar with his new buddy this past week: the 2-starter Doug Davis of the Milwaukee Brewers against the Cubbies and "the lowly" Natinals (you might have already discovered the hard way last nite as your pitcher got Cooked that the Natinals don't seem so lowly anymore). So back to my little experiment: 11 ER, 18 hits, 3 walks in 2 starts sent my ERA and WHIP to the bleachers. BTW, Davis got enough run support to get both wins. How about 10 runs in the first inning. Too bad Davis sucks and can't go five.

Bush falls in the same category I think but we're about to find out. Keep that prayer handy.

For me, the two-start experiment with crappy pitchers is over. The benefits are not worth the potential disasters they cause.

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Tue Apr 20, 2010 7:58 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

when I woke up Saturday morning, I was actually leading my league and was in fifth place overall. I am not used to such lofty heights. My hitters must have sensed my confusion and went into the tank Saturday and Sunday. Still and all, for the week I ended up with a .2921 BA to go with R/RBI/HR/SB of 53/52/18/7 respectively. If you kept hitting like this, you will be spending plenty of time near the top of the standings.

Nice write-up.

The Good Doctor · Post by **The Good Doctor** » Tue Apr 20, 2010 9:20 am

Wayne, my co-owner and I were in your Main Event league (Serious Tacos 2009) last year and since you had good posts and said hello at the draft I have followed your posts here. We are trying to win our $125 satellite to get back into the 2011 Main Event (that's how we got into the 2009 Main Event).

We also had a good week. Hitting was led by Jeter, Teahen, and IRod. Our staff was solid and if it remains healthy I expect it to be the rock of our team (Carpenter, Cain, Sanchez, Piniero, Weaver, Millwood-round 30, Hughes, Happ, Aardsma, and KRod). They had 7 starts and went for 2.01 ERA, 1.16, 52 K (49 IP), 5 W, and 3 Sv.

We are happily in first place (117 vs. 102.5 next) in spite of getting nothing from our top 2 picks (Tex and Grady).

We look forward to seeing you and competing against you in 2011, Wayne.

High Octane Baseball · Post by **High Octane Baseball** » Tue Apr 20, 2010 11:49 am

great write up.....someone let me know when Carlos Lee finally gets an RBI...appreciate it..lol

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Apr 20, 2010 12:21 pm

Originally posted by AZSteamers:

Edwards, good luck with that Bush experiment. Tried something similar with his new buddy this past week: the 2-starter Doug Davis of the Milwaukee Brewers against the Cubbies and "the lowly" Natinals (you might have already discovered the hard way last nite as your pitcher got Cooked that the Natinals don't seem so lowly anymore). So back to my little experiment: 11 ER, 18 hits, 3 walks in 2 starts sent my ERA and WHIP to the bleachers. BTW, Davis got enough run support to get both wins. How about 10 runs in the first inning. Too bad Davis sucks and can't go five.

Bush falls in the same category I think but we're about to find out. Keep that prayer handy.

For me, the two-start experiment with crappy pitchers is over. The benefits are not worth the potential disasters they cause. Thanks! I know what you mean, but going back a ways (and probably one of my many weaknesses) is that I latch onto players and no matter what just seem to follow their ups and downs. I liked Bush and his potential way back in Toronto and since. He has always been something of a bad-luck type, so here is hoping for a little turn around. Got any four-leaf clovers handy?

But as far as experimentation and the Washington Nationals go, I am done there, too. I had Cook last night. NICE!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Apr 20, 2010 12:23 pm

Originally posted by The Good Doctor:

Wayne, my co-owner and I were in your Main Event league (Serious Tacos 2009) last year and since you had good posts and said hello at the draft I have followed your posts here. We are trying to win our $125 satellite to get back into the 2011 Main Event (that's how we got into the 2009 Main Event).

We also had a good week. Hitting was led by Jeter, Teahen, and IRod. Our staff was solid and if it remains healthy I expect it to be the rock of our team (Carpenter, Cain, Sanchez, Piniero, Weaver, Millwood-round 30, Hughes, Happ, Aardsma, and KRod). They had 7 starts and went for 2.01 ERA, 1.16, 52 K (49 IP), 5 W, and 3 Sv.

We are happily in first place (117 vs. 102.5 next) in spite of getting nothing from our top 2 picks (Tex and Grady).

We look forward to seeing you and competing against you in 2011, Wayne. Good luck and come back soon! It was nice competing with you guys last year if you can call what my team did competing!

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Apr 20, 2010 12:24 pm

Originally posted by ottawaclo:

great write up.....someone let me know when Carlos Lee finally gets an RBI...appreciate it..lol Just consider Lee's stats safe in the bank. By the time September roles around, you will have them with interest. The pundits are always quick to say someone is old and lost it, but they are also the first to jump back on the bandwagon when the hits start to fall. Lee will be there in the end.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Apr 20, 2010 12:26 pm

Originally posted by Navel Lint:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

when I woke up Saturday morning, I was actually leading my league and was in fifth place overall. I am not used to such lofty heights. My hitters must have sensed my confusion and went into the tank Saturday and Sunday. Still and all, for the week I ended up with a .2921 BA to go with R/RBI/HR/SB of 53/52/18/7 respectively. If you kept hitting like this, you will be spending plenty of time near the top of the standings.

Nice write-up. [/QUOTE]I hope you are right, Russel. I like my teams chances, though still have concerns about my feeble MI.