Breaking Down Draft Day Data

[Greg Ambrosius]

My hats off to Seth Trachtman, who compiled the Main Event ADP list for us and also compiled every draft spot for every player in the 26 live NFBC Main Event leagues. I don't have the data from the three Main Event Online drafts, but looking at data from 26 leagues is a good start.



I've looked at some of the data and will try to have some fun with the numbers here since that's what most of you like to look at. I'll start with the first round and then work my way to the back of the draft. If you want some data on certain players or certain areas of the draft, just let me know. Enjoy.



First Round

** Albert Pujols was taken first in 23 of 26 leagues. He went second twice and third once.



** Hanley Ramirez was the only other player selected first, going first three times. He went second 19 times and third four times.



** Matt Kemp was on average the sixth person taken off the board, but he went fifth twice and went as low as 14th. He was taken 10th or higher in 9 of 26 leagues.



** Mark Teixeira on average was the ninth person taken off the board, but he went fifth once and sixth seven times. He was taken 10th or higher in 11 of 26 leagues and went as low as 20th in one league.



** Joe Mauer on average was the 11th person taken off the board, but he went fourth twice, fifth once and sixth once. He went 10th or higher in 17 of 26 leagues and went as low as 18th in one league.



** TWELVE different players went in the Top 6 on Draft Day. They included Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Braun, Chase Utley, Matt Kemp, Prince Fielder, Evan Longoria, Mark Teixeira, Miguel Cabrera, Joe Mauer and Troy Tulowitzki.



Here's some more early round data:



Second Round:

** Tim Lincecum was drafted in the first round four times with a high of 11th overall. He was drafted in the Top 23 in 24 of 26 leagues with a low of 28.



** 10 of 26 owners picked Roy Halladay ahead of Tim Lincecum in the main event. They were the first starting pitchers to go in every draft, although Felix Hernandez went between Lincecum and Halladay in one league (15, 18, 27).



** It was a rough stretch from 18th to 20th as all three quickly landed on the DL:

18. Jimmy Rollins

19. Ian Kinsler

20. Jacoby Ellsbury



** TWENTY-FOUR different players were drafted in the first round. Along with the 12 above, the list included: Ryan Howard, Carl Crawford, David Wright, Justin Upton, Tim Lincecum, Jimmy Rollins, Ian Kinsler, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Holliday, Mark Reynolds, Jose Reyes and Pablo Sandoval.



** Mark Reynolds had the biggest spread among the second rounders, going as high as 15th overall and as low as 50th.



Okay, here's a quick look at the Third Round ADP:



Third Round:

** Jose Reyes had the biggest spread in the third round, going as high as 14th overall and as low as 72nd. He went in the first round once, the second round five times and the third round 13 times. Seven times he went after the third round. His ADP was 36.



** Nelson Cruz had an ADP of 45, going as high as 32nd overall and as low as 56th overall. In 13 of 26 leagues Nelson went in the third round and he went lower than the third round in the other 13 leagues.



** Three pitchers went mainly in the third round and had various values:



Felix Hernandez had an ADP of 33. He went as high as 18th overall and as low as 48th. Six times he went in the second round.



Zach Greinke had an ADP of 38. He went as high as 27th and as low as 49th. He only went in the second round once and he went in the second round 21 times.



CC Sabathia had an ADP of 41. He went as high as 24 and as low as 56. He went in the second round once and in the third round 15 times.



One more for fun tonight:



Fourth Round

** The most interesting pick of the fourth round was Andrew McCutchen, who had an ADP of 54. He went as high as 34th and as low as 83rd. He went in the third round twice, in the fourth round 17 times and in the fifth round or higher 7 times.



** The biggest spread in the fourth round was Jason Bay, who finished with an ADP of 55. Bay went as high as 32nd and as low as 93rd. He went in the third round 9 times and in the fifth round or higher 11 times.



** Six pitchers went mainly in the fourth round:

47. Dan Haren: A range of 31 to 57; 10 times he went in the third round.



48. Justin Verlander: A range of 30 to 62; 10 times he went in the third round.



52. Jon Lester: A Range of 34 to 67; went once in the third round but next highest was then 46th overall.



58. Adam Wainwright: A range of 47 to 71.



59. Johan Santana: A range of 46 to 74.



60. Jonathan Broxton: The consensus top closer had a range of 49 to 81.



[ April 23, 2010, 04:41 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

[Glenneration X]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:



First Round

** Albert Pujols was taken first in 23 of 26 leagues. He went second twice and third once.



What lucky bast**d got Pujols third?



Glenn

[Dirt Dogs]

That should never of happened Glenn!

[Glenneration X]

Originally posted by Dirt Dogs:

That should never of happened Glenn! I choose to think of it as skilled drafting on my part.



Glenn

[Greg Ambrosius]

Here's some more early round data:



Second Round:

** Tim Lincecum was drafted in the first round four times with a high of 11th overall. He was drafted in the Top 23 in 24 of 26 leagues with a low of 28.



** It was a rough stretch from 18th to 20th as all three quickly landed on the DL:

18. Jimmy Rollins

19. Ian Kinsler

20. Jacoby Ellsbury



** TWENTY-FOUR different players were drafted in the first round. Along with the 12 above, the list included: Ryan Howard, Carl Crawford, David Wright, Justin Upton, Tim Lincecum, Jimmy Rollins, Ian Kinsler, Jacoby Ellsbury, Matt Holliday, Mark Reynolds, Jose Reyes and Pablo Sandoval.



** Mark Reynolds had the biggest spread among the second rounders, going as high as 15th overall and as low as 50th.

[Greg Ambrosius]

I meant to add this in the post above, but will to the first post:



** 10 of 26 owners picked Roy Halladay ahead of Tim Lincecum in the main event. They were the first starting pitchers to go in every draft, although Felix Hernandez went between Lincecum and Halladay in one league (15, 18, 27).

[Navel Lint]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

I meant to add this in the post above, but will to the first post:



** 10 of 26 owners picked Roy Halladay ahead of Tim Lincecum in the main event. They were the first starting pitchers to go in every draft, although Felix Hernandez went between Lincecum and Halladay in one league (15, 18, 27). I took the first pitcher in my league with pick 20. I choose Roy Halladay.



I was hoping that the higher win total and innings pitched that I was projecting for Halladay would trump Lincecum’s K’s. So far both have been awesome but I feel somewhat relieved that Roy has started 4-0.



I watched him pitch last night and I was very happy. I actually jumped off the couch last night in the seventh when the Phillies turned that bases-loaded, diving stop by Utley double-play.



My wife gave me the look :rolleyes: ………… and asked if we could watch Idol now.



Tim got voted out

[Catch]

Greg,



Can you provide stats on Robinson Cano. We thought we would be the earliest drafting him @ spot #28 (late 2nd round). But, the adp report shows that someone drafted him @ 23.

Also, the draft stats on Elvis Andrus.



Thanks, Tom Z

[BigHurt]

I think I remember a post about autographed baseballs from certain players being awarded to the team that drafted that person first. If I'm remembering this correctly, it would be nice to see the draft positions on these guys.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by Catch:

Greg,



Can you provide stats on Robinson Cano. We thought we would be the earliest drafting him @ spot #28 (late 2nd round). But, the adp report shows that someone drafted him @ 23.

Also, the draft stats on Elvis Andrus.



Thanks, Tom Z Sorry, I got busy on some other projects.



Cano had an ADP around 35 with a low of 23 and a high of 51. Actually, he was picked in the second round six times and in the third round 19 times. His only time selected in the fourth round was when he went 51st overall. Mainly, he went 38-41.

[Greg Ambrosius]

Originally posted by BigHurt:

I think I remember a post about autographed baseballs from certain players being awarded to the team that drafted that person first. If I'm remembering this correctly, it would be nice to see the draft positions on these guys. I know this is going to sound foolish, but who were the players again? I can look them up. I think this was an Upper Deck Authenticated promotion through Ryan, but it feels like a lifetime ago for me. Shoot me the link and I'll try to figure this out. I liked the lowest possible pick winning this promotion, but we'll see what the numbers say.

[Glenneration X]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by BigHurt:

I think I remember a post about autographed baseballs from certain players being awarded to the team that drafted that person first. If I'm remembering this correctly, it would be nice to see the draft positions on these guys. I know this is going to sound foolish, but who were the players again? I can look them up. I think this was an Upper Deck Authenticated promotion through Ryan, but it feels like a lifetime ago for me. Shoot me the link and I'll try to figure this out. I liked the lowest possible pick winning this promotion, but we'll see what the numbers say. [/QUOTE]I think the players were whoever got Pujols or Lincecum the latest gets autographed jerseys of each. I'm pretty sure my memory is dead on here.



Glenn

[Dirt Dogs]

I just bumped up the old thread.

[Glenneration X]

Originally posted by Dirt Dogs:

I just bumped up the old thread. Thanks a lot....I almost had Greg sending me jerseys....



Glenn

[Greg Ambrosius]

Okay, here's a quick look at the Third Round ADP:



Third Round:

** Jose Reyes had the biggest spread in the third round, going as high as 14th overall and as low as 72nd. He went in the first round once, the second round five times and the third round 13 times. Seven times he went after the third round. His ADP was 36.



** Nelson Cruz had an ADP of 45, going as high as 32nd overall and as low as 56th overall. In 13 of 26 leagues Nelson went in the third round and he went lower than the third round in the other 13 leagues.



** Three pitchers went mainly in the third round and had various values:



Felix Hernandez had an ADP of 33. He went as high as 18th overall and as low as 48th. Six times he went in the second round.



Zach Greinke had an ADP of 38. He went as high as 27th and as low as 49th. He only went in the second round once and he went in the second round 21 times.



CC Sabathia had an ADP of 41. He went as high as 24 and as low as 56. He went in the second round once and in the third round 15 times.

[Greg Ambrosius]

One more for fun tonight:



Fourth Round

** The most interesting pick of the fourth round was Andrew McCutchen, who had an ADP of 54. He went as high as 34th and as low as 83rd. He went in the third round twice, in the fourth round 17 times and in the fifth round or higher 7 times.



** The biggest spread in the fourth round was Jason Bay, who finished with an ADP of 55. Bay went as high as 32nd and as low as 93rd. He went in the third round 9 times and in the fifth round or higher 11 times.



** Six pitchers went mainly in the fourth round:

47. Dan Haren: A range of 31 to 57; 10 times he went in the third round.



48. Justin Verlander: A range of 30 to 62; 10 times he went in the third round.



52. Jon Lester: A Range of 34 to 67; went once in the third round but next highest was then 46th overall.



58. Adam Wainwright: A range of 47 to 71.



59. Johan Santana: A range of 46 to 74.



60. Jonathan Broxton: The consensus top closer had a range of 49 to 81.