Cold Hard Look VIII Shandler

[Schwks]

I would like to preface this post by saying, experts are in an unenviable position when they play in leagues like this. They are essentially in a no win situation, since if they win, they are supposed to and if they lose, their reputations and even livelihoods could be jeopardized.



I love Baseball Prospectus. It really forces you to examine why you like aplayer, rather then rely upon face stats and feelings. I also have respect for Ron as being on the forefront of earning a living at this crazy hobby we all love. (and share his love of the Mets) This poat is not meant as a dig at him or his teammates.



I felt going in to this year's draft that getting in a league with some of the experts would actually be beneficial for those who had real NFBC experience, since it is a breed apart. This has proven to be true. Here are a few experts and their positions in the Main:



Walton: 197

Schwartz: 226

Michaels: 173

Ravitz: 170

Shandler: 353



Here is a look(cold and hard) at Mr Shandler's year from the 3rd slot in New York 1, currently in 13th place in the league:



Braun

Pedroia

Sandoval

Zobrist

Abreu



Braun probably has 1st round numbers in October. Other four guys, youd have to term misses, though Pedroia injury unforeseeable. Sandoval has killed many a team this season. Zobrist really is producing about 9th round value. Abreu...I always say who is going to be left without a chair when the music stops on his 300 20-20 seasons? Maybe Ron.



Ron's first four picks included gamble on two guys who were one year hits in Zobrist and Sandoval...possibly not foundation material. A third pick is an age-related risk for severe downside.



Bartlett

Wandy

H Bell

Soto

Brt Anderson



In the next five, there are two more potential noe year wonder candidates in Anderson and Bartlett. We all know of the love affair with Wandy and he has been awesone since Juneish. Soto was a good pick until he got injured and Bell has been worth the pick.



So 4 of first 10 were bets on single years Sandoval, Zobr, Bartlett and anderson. He also had two significant injuries to Soto and more so, Pedroia.



C Davis

Damon

Prado

Harang

Ruiz



Davis, Damon and Harang were big misses. Prado was a big hit, his first of the draft and Ruiz Iwill say is a push...maybe. I want to say that RUiz and Harang were both taken above slot, meaning that Ron thought they were guys who would outproduce their slots. Neither has.



Strassberg

Psednik

B Wood

Lindstrom

Kennedy



This is the earliest we have seen Pods, in my little articles. Nevertheless, he has produced at way above 17th rd, so good targt pick. Other then Wood, these picks have all been pretty good, for where they were drafted.



Picks 21-30 produced K Wood, Medlen, Hafner



Shandler's big expenditure was BLalock for 285, a pickup that largely returned nothing. That said, there are a lot of good pick ups here: Vargas, Dickey, Raburn, Duensing, Bill Hall (perhaps J Zimmerman)Lowell



THe current lineup is:



Ruiz/Soto

Sandoval

Zobr

Lowell

Bartlett

Prado

Hall

Abreu, Braun, Damon, Pods, Raburn, Fukudom



Pitch: Bell, Dickey, Wandy, Duensing, Kennedy, Harang, Vargas, Zimm



Ron made no crazy attempt to land a second closer when Lindstrom faltered or when he went down. He has 29 points in pitching in his league.



My lesson is that one year wonders are risky. Draft them with caution and not grouped together. I also see catchers as generally being avoidable. Teams that have attempted to gain advantage there (like me drafting Montero in 9th) have not had success. Would rather land solid foundation pieces. Catchers become available.

I think that generally speaking that another front line SP was needed in rounds 1-9. Dickey, Vargas, Duensing, have all been very good but not enough to win a league.