I'm not going to look at Bautista's numbers and try to tell you how he had the year that he had. We've heard the story all year. No more than 16 homers before and now over 50. No homers hit to the opposite field until near the end of the season.
It did not leave most fantasy players with the feeling of 'how did I miss this guy', rather, 'how in the hell did he do that?'
Some are thinking the help comes by ped's. Others think it is an anomaly. Bautista credits a coach and a different philosophy.
It doesn't really matter. It happened. And now we're left to deal with his ranking for 2011.
When it was clear that Bautista was not going to fold and peter out in jacking home runs, he reminded me of another player.
Roger Maris.
Maris had hit 20 homers once and had only hit more than .250 once before being traded to the Yankees.
With the Yankees over the next three years, he won two MVP'S and set a new home run record. He had a looping upper cut swing that was tailor-made for Yankee Stadium.
Like Bautista, Maris did not hit any opposite field home runs.-Just a note for folks who did not see baseball till the 80's, opposite field home runs were very, very rare, back in the day. They almost seem common place now.-
Maris' ascent was less 'lightning in a bottle' than Bautista's. He prefaced his home run record with a season of 39 homers. The next year hitting 61. Then falling back to 33 the next year.
Both players have an amazing stat aside from the home runs. Maris, when hitting his 61 homers in '61, only had 16 doubles.
Bautista had 54 homers and only 56 singles.
Both players seem to have a lot of things go right for them over the space of one season. Now, we get to cipher if Bautista's season will have a carry over effect.
No, it won't
Maris couldn't carry it over, he hit 33 the next year. George Foster hit 52 once, then regressed back to 40.
The thing is, we'll take 33 or 40 homers next year. But, what will be the price?
I expect Bautista to be taken in the third round of most drafts next year. His 3b/of positionality helps him with that. If comparing to another player for next year, go with Dan Uggla. When both are drafted, drafters will be hoping for their last year back again, knowing, it probably won't happen.
Note- I'll be profiling players and giving an opinion of where they will go in next year's drafts. Bautista was requested, if there are any players that you would like scrutinized, let me know.
Jose Bautista
Jose Bautista
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Jose Bautista
Here are some metrics for Jose Buatista from 2006(1st year of full time AB's) to 2010.
HR/AB '06-25/'07-35.5/'08-24.7/'09-25.8/'10-10.5
FB% '06-47/'07-43/'08-39/'09-42/'10-54
HR/FB% '06-12/'07-8/'08-14/'09-12/'10-22
Looking at these metrics we see numbers that can't be sustained by anybody not in the Hall of Fame.When these stats normalize,as they most certainly will,I would not want to be the guy who used a 3rd round pick on Jose Bautista.I'm not saying that he'll totally fall of the earth in 2011,just that he'll most certainly be overvalued in most if not all drafts.
HR/AB '06-25/'07-35.5/'08-24.7/'09-25.8/'10-10.5
FB% '06-47/'07-43/'08-39/'09-42/'10-54
HR/FB% '06-12/'07-8/'08-14/'09-12/'10-22
Looking at these metrics we see numbers that can't be sustained by anybody not in the Hall of Fame.When these stats normalize,as they most certainly will,I would not want to be the guy who used a 3rd round pick on Jose Bautista.I'm not saying that he'll totally fall of the earth in 2011,just that he'll most certainly be overvalued in most if not all drafts.
Jose Bautista
My apologies for wrong typing of Bautista's name in my previous post. :rolleyes:
Jose Bautista
i think we'll see him go late 1st or early 2nd come march/april. 50+hr from a 3b is tough to get
Jose Bautista
Mr. Gekko,
This falls into the "you don't know me but" category.
Obviously very early in the offseason but your comment regarding Bautista intrigues me. Sounds like a wager in the making.
You pick Bautista prior to the 3rd round and I will pay half the entry fee for your league.(limit of 1 league) In return I will expect only 10% of your winning for that league. So you pay 50%, draft bautista in round 1 or 2, and collect 90% of your prize money. I will pay in advance. However, if you finish out of the money, you remimburse me my full 50% payment.
I have had numerous side bets and can furnish some names if you deem it necessary.
Unless of course you are saying that some will buy the hype on Bautista and draft him that early but a "Hall of Famer" like yourself can see the reality of the situation.
Not trying to be a wise ass but seeing if you actually believe what you post.
This falls into the "you don't know me but" category.
Obviously very early in the offseason but your comment regarding Bautista intrigues me. Sounds like a wager in the making.
You pick Bautista prior to the 3rd round and I will pay half the entry fee for your league.(limit of 1 league) In return I will expect only 10% of your winning for that league. So you pay 50%, draft bautista in round 1 or 2, and collect 90% of your prize money. I will pay in advance. However, if you finish out of the money, you remimburse me my full 50% payment.
I have had numerous side bets and can furnish some names if you deem it necessary.
Unless of course you are saying that some will buy the hype on Bautista and draft him that early but a "Hall of Famer" like yourself can see the reality of the situation.
Not trying to be a wise ass but seeing if you actually believe what you post.
Jose Bautista
Originally posted by crazytown:
Mr. Gekko,
This falls into the "you don't know me but" category.
Obviously very early in the offseason but your comment regarding Bautista intrigues me. Sounds like a wager in the making.
You pick Bautista prior to the 3rd round and I will pay half the entry fee for your league.(limit of 1 league) In return I will expect only 10% of your winning for that league. So you pay 50%, draft bautista in round 1 or 2, and collect 90% of your prize money. I will pay in advance. However, if you finish out of the money, you remimburse me my full 50% payment.
I have had numerous side bets and can furnish some names if you deem it necessary.
Unless of course you are saying that some will buy the hype on Bautista and draft him that early but a "Hall of Famer" like yourself can see the reality of the situation.
Not trying to be a wise ass but seeing if you actually believe what you post. where did i say, i would be the one pulling the trigger that early?
Mr. Gekko,
This falls into the "you don't know me but" category.
Obviously very early in the offseason but your comment regarding Bautista intrigues me. Sounds like a wager in the making.
You pick Bautista prior to the 3rd round and I will pay half the entry fee for your league.(limit of 1 league) In return I will expect only 10% of your winning for that league. So you pay 50%, draft bautista in round 1 or 2, and collect 90% of your prize money. I will pay in advance. However, if you finish out of the money, you remimburse me my full 50% payment.
I have had numerous side bets and can furnish some names if you deem it necessary.
Unless of course you are saying that some will buy the hype on Bautista and draft him that early but a "Hall of Famer" like yourself can see the reality of the situation.
Not trying to be a wise ass but seeing if you actually believe what you post. where did i say, i would be the one pulling the trigger that early?
-
BaseBrawler
- Posts: 79
- Joined: Sun Apr 08, 2007 6:00 pm
- Contact:
Jose Bautista
Jose Bastista will be the first player to go 50/10/100 and not get picked in the first 2 rounds....
remeber Brady Anderson... lol
remeber Brady Anderson... lol
The Foot Moves swiftly and silently ....THEN KICKS YOUR BUTT!
Jose Bautista
I'm no expert, but I personally won't be touching Bautista within the first 150 picks of any draft. Pretty easy to say I won't be owning him in any leagues next year. Those numbers are just completely unsustainable.
-
Greg Ambrosius
- Posts: 41100
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2004 6:00 pm
- Contact:
Jose Bautista
Originally posted by mlbbug:
Here are some metrics for Jose Buatista from 2006(1st year of full time AB's) to 2010.
HR/AB '06-25/'07-35.5/'08-24.7/'09-25.8/'10-10.5
FB% '06-47/'07-43/'08-39/'09-42/'10-54
HR/FB% '06-12/'07-8/'08-14/'09-12/'10-22
Looking at these metrics we see numbers that can't be sustained by anybody not in the Hall of Fame.When these stats normalize,as they most certainly will,I would not want to be the guy who used a 3rd round pick on Jose Bautista.I'm not saying that he'll totally fall of the earth in 2011,just that he'll most certainly be overvalued in most if not all drafts. I love doing player analysis and look forward to doing this for Fantasy Sports Magazine each year, so I'm going to jump on Dan's threads from time-to-time and give some opinions as well. I hope you don't mind Dan. 
As Dan stated, history would say that Bautista will likely fall back to normal numbers next year and this magical run will be remembered as a one year anomaly. Bautista turns 30 in the next week and the talent doesn't just rise at that age and stay at MVP-caliber levels for years and years. Now it's true that a change in coaching and his approach at the plate has led to positive results, but those 2010 results are RIDICULOUS!!
As stated above, his HR/FB% is off the charts, but as we all saw many of those HRs were WAAAAAY out of the park. He didn't get cheated much. But that percentage isn't sustainable and since he had only 35 doubles last year it sure looks like anything deep in the air went over the fence.
But let's look at his other numbers to see if a .260-35-100 season is possible in 2011. And if it is, then as a 3B/OF qualifier he definitely has third or fourth round value, correct? But if his career average before last year (.238) arises and the power doesn't follow, then he's another Mark Reynolds, right?
So let's look inside. In 2009, Bautista hit .235 in 336 ABs with 85 strikeouts and 56 walks. He had 13 HRs, 40 RBIs and 4 SBs. His career average was .238, his OBP was .329 and his Slugging % was .400. No wonder few people drafted him in the NFBC last year. During his six previous MLB seasons and especially during his time as a starter in Pittsburgh, you could see that Bautista had a relatively good eye at the plate, but a long swing that resulted in too many strikeouts and a consistently low batting average.
So as we all know he changed his approach at the plate and gained confidence with continued success. He pulled the ball on everything and hit it with power. He also stayed healthy, playing in a career-best 161 games with 569 ABs (can that happen again?). He led the majors with 54 home runs and added 124 RBIs with 9 stolen bases. More interestingly, he had 100 walks with only 116 strikeouts and only TWO of his walks were intentional passes. TWO. In 161 games, isn't it amazing that he didn't get a free pass to pitch around him more often? Maybe other managers and pitchers didn't fear him either, but even the situation you'd think would present you with more than two intentional walks. Wow.
But again, 100 walks and 116 strikeouts for a guy who hit 54 homers is pretty impressive. His slugging % was .617 and his OPS was .995, obviously both career highs.
His splits tell more of the story. After the All-Star break, he hit .287-30-68, which is amazing. He hit only .237 in the first half, but was a monster after the All-Star break through August, hitting almost .300 during that stretch. He did struggle during the last five weeks of the season, though, and finished .224-11-21 from Sept. 1 through Oct. 3. He also hit just .222 against left-handers, but pounded right-handers to the tune of .269-46-107. He also was much tougher at home (.282-33-69) compared to his road splits (.241-21-55).
So what does all of this tell us? To me, it looks like a guy who can hit 30 HRs again based on his eye at the plate, his contact rate, his spot in the lineup, his ballpark affect and his ability to hit right-handers. However, I think the batting average will definitely drop, the FB/HR% has to drop and even the # of ABs and games has to go down, you'd think. This looks more like a .250-30-85-6 season to me if I were projecting. Pitchers will make adjustments to him and we'll see if he can adjust too, but I'm projecting conservatively here and I'll be surprised if he tops those numbers.
But what do I know? Prove me wrong Jose. You definitely proved EVERYONE wrong this year. Now do it again.
Here are some metrics for Jose Buatista from 2006(1st year of full time AB's) to 2010.
HR/AB '06-25/'07-35.5/'08-24.7/'09-25.8/'10-10.5
FB% '06-47/'07-43/'08-39/'09-42/'10-54
HR/FB% '06-12/'07-8/'08-14/'09-12/'10-22
Looking at these metrics we see numbers that can't be sustained by anybody not in the Hall of Fame.When these stats normalize,as they most certainly will,I would not want to be the guy who used a 3rd round pick on Jose Bautista.I'm not saying that he'll totally fall of the earth in 2011,just that he'll most certainly be overvalued in most if not all drafts.
I love doing player analysis and look forward to doing this for Fantasy Sports Magazine each year, so I'm going to jump on Dan's threads from time-to-time and give some opinions as well. I hope you don't mind Dan. As Dan stated, history would say that Bautista will likely fall back to normal numbers next year and this magical run will be remembered as a one year anomaly. Bautista turns 30 in the next week and the talent doesn't just rise at that age and stay at MVP-caliber levels for years and years. Now it's true that a change in coaching and his approach at the plate has led to positive results, but those 2010 results are RIDICULOUS!!
As stated above, his HR/FB% is off the charts, but as we all saw many of those HRs were WAAAAAY out of the park. He didn't get cheated much. But that percentage isn't sustainable and since he had only 35 doubles last year it sure looks like anything deep in the air went over the fence.
But let's look at his other numbers to see if a .260-35-100 season is possible in 2011. And if it is, then as a 3B/OF qualifier he definitely has third or fourth round value, correct? But if his career average before last year (.238) arises and the power doesn't follow, then he's another Mark Reynolds, right?
So let's look inside. In 2009, Bautista hit .235 in 336 ABs with 85 strikeouts and 56 walks. He had 13 HRs, 40 RBIs and 4 SBs. His career average was .238, his OBP was .329 and his Slugging % was .400. No wonder few people drafted him in the NFBC last year. During his six previous MLB seasons and especially during his time as a starter in Pittsburgh, you could see that Bautista had a relatively good eye at the plate, but a long swing that resulted in too many strikeouts and a consistently low batting average.
So as we all know he changed his approach at the plate and gained confidence with continued success. He pulled the ball on everything and hit it with power. He also stayed healthy, playing in a career-best 161 games with 569 ABs (can that happen again?). He led the majors with 54 home runs and added 124 RBIs with 9 stolen bases. More interestingly, he had 100 walks with only 116 strikeouts and only TWO of his walks were intentional passes. TWO. In 161 games, isn't it amazing that he didn't get a free pass to pitch around him more often? Maybe other managers and pitchers didn't fear him either, but even the situation you'd think would present you with more than two intentional walks. Wow.
But again, 100 walks and 116 strikeouts for a guy who hit 54 homers is pretty impressive. His slugging % was .617 and his OPS was .995, obviously both career highs.
His splits tell more of the story. After the All-Star break, he hit .287-30-68, which is amazing. He hit only .237 in the first half, but was a monster after the All-Star break through August, hitting almost .300 during that stretch. He did struggle during the last five weeks of the season, though, and finished .224-11-21 from Sept. 1 through Oct. 3. He also hit just .222 against left-handers, but pounded right-handers to the tune of .269-46-107. He also was much tougher at home (.282-33-69) compared to his road splits (.241-21-55).
So what does all of this tell us? To me, it looks like a guy who can hit 30 HRs again based on his eye at the plate, his contact rate, his spot in the lineup, his ballpark affect and his ability to hit right-handers. However, I think the batting average will definitely drop, the FB/HR% has to drop and even the # of ABs and games has to go down, you'd think. This looks more like a .250-30-85-6 season to me if I were projecting. Pitchers will make adjustments to him and we'll see if he can adjust too, but I'm projecting conservatively here and I'll be surprised if he tops those numbers.
But what do I know? Prove me wrong Jose. You definitely proved EVERYONE wrong this year. Now do it again.
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
-
Greg Ambrosius
- Posts: 41100
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2004 6:00 pm
- Contact:
Jose Bautista
Last year in the NFBC, Bautista was drafted in 18 of 29 main event leagues with an ADP of 430 (middle of the 28th round). The highest he was drafted in the main event was 263rd. Kudos to that owner!! 
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
-
Greg Ambrosius
- Posts: 41100
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2004 6:00 pm
- Contact:
Jose Bautista
Damn, I just found out from Ron Shandler that I will be part of a cage match discussion with Todd Zola over Jose Bautista at the Arizona Fall League Symposium next month. I just gave away all of my good material!! Lord Zola, it's you and me in the cage discussing Jose Bautista. Are you up for the challenge? Should be a fun 6-minute debate.
Ambrosius: Under 35 HRs in 2011 for Bautista
Zola: Over 35 HRs in 2011 for Bautista
Should be a fun 6-minute debate.Ambrosius: Under 35 HRs in 2011 for Bautista
Zola: Over 35 HRs in 2011 for Bautista
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
Jose Bautista
To quote Tommy from Karate Kid, "Get him a body bag! Yeah!"
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over 1300 projections and 500 player profiles
Standings and Roster Tracker perfect for DC and cutline leagues
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Jose Bautista
10 reasons why Jose Bautista will hit more than 35 homers next year:
10. Mark McGwire is NOT my hitting coach
9. In Toronto, it's homer or nothing
8. Baltimore is still in our league, right?
7. The deal with the Devil was for two years
6. Next year, I'll swing harder
5. Jupinka called, said he would take me in the second round, are you smarter than Jupinka?
4. No humidor
3. A Latin and playing for a Canadian team, I went to a Chinese restaurant.
Last March, my fortune cookie read, 'You will turn 50 this year'.
Same restaurant yesterday, my fortune read, 'Settle for a Little Less........And Leave a Bigger Tip, willya!'
2. We still get to play Kansas City, right?
1. I have Jose Canseco on speed dial
10. Mark McGwire is NOT my hitting coach
9. In Toronto, it's homer or nothing
8. Baltimore is still in our league, right?
7. The deal with the Devil was for two years
6. Next year, I'll swing harder
5. Jupinka called, said he would take me in the second round, are you smarter than Jupinka?
4. No humidor
3. A Latin and playing for a Canadian team, I went to a Chinese restaurant.
Last March, my fortune cookie read, 'You will turn 50 this year'.
Same restaurant yesterday, my fortune read, 'Settle for a Little Less........And Leave a Bigger Tip, willya!'
2. We still get to play Kansas City, right?
1. I have Jose Canseco on speed dial
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
-
Greg Ambrosius
- Posts: 41100
- Joined: Thu Jan 22, 2004 6:00 pm
- Contact:
Jose Bautista
Originally posted by ToddZ:
To quote Tommy from Karate Kid, "Get him a body bag! Yeah!" Mr. Zola, I just went through all of your NFBC teams from last year and Jose Bautista was not on a single one of your teams. He went in the 30th round and the 29th round of two 15-team leagues you were in last year and still you showed him no love. Now you love him enough to declare he will hit 35+ homers in 2011? That's falling fast for someone.
You have some explaining to do. And you'll get your chance on Nov. 6th in front of a live audience. See you there.
To quote Tommy from Karate Kid, "Get him a body bag! Yeah!" Mr. Zola, I just went through all of your NFBC teams from last year and Jose Bautista was not on a single one of your teams. He went in the 30th round and the 29th round of two 15-team leagues you were in last year and still you showed him no love. Now you love him enough to declare he will hit 35+ homers in 2011? That's falling fast for someone.
You have some explaining to do. And you'll get your chance on Nov. 6th in front of a live audience. See you there.
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
Jose Bautista
Originally posted by mlbbug:
Here are some metrics for Jose Buatista from 2006(1st year of full time AB's) to 2010.
HR/AB '06-25/'07-35.5/'08-24.7/'09-25.8/'10-10.5
FB% '06-47/'07-43/'08-39/'09-42/'10-54
HR/FB% '06-12/'07-8/'08-14/'09-12/'10-22
Looking at these metrics we see numbers that can't be sustained by anybody not in the Hall of Fame.When these stats normalize,as they most certainly will,I would not want to be the guy who used a 3rd round pick on Jose Bautista.I'm not saying that he'll totally fall of the earth in 2011,just that he'll most certainly be overvalued in most if not all drafts. I'm always confused about why people choose these stats. Some people quote the HR/FB and say it went up unsustainably; then some people look at the FB% and say the same thing. But we know there are such things as real breakouts and that if someone increases their homerun rate one of these things has to go up along with it. So which one is real and which one is the noise? With apologies to mlbbug, I'm not sure looking at both of them together tells us anything other than what we already know--he hit a lot of homeruns.
[ October 14, 2010, 04:08 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]
Here are some metrics for Jose Buatista from 2006(1st year of full time AB's) to 2010.
HR/AB '06-25/'07-35.5/'08-24.7/'09-25.8/'10-10.5
FB% '06-47/'07-43/'08-39/'09-42/'10-54
HR/FB% '06-12/'07-8/'08-14/'09-12/'10-22
Looking at these metrics we see numbers that can't be sustained by anybody not in the Hall of Fame.When these stats normalize,as they most certainly will,I would not want to be the guy who used a 3rd round pick on Jose Bautista.I'm not saying that he'll totally fall of the earth in 2011,just that he'll most certainly be overvalued in most if not all drafts.
I'm always confused about why people choose these stats. Some people quote the HR/FB and say it went up unsustainably; then some people look at the FB% and say the same thing. But we know there are such things as real breakouts and that if someone increases their homerun rate one of these things has to go up along with it. So which one is real and which one is the noise? With apologies to mlbbug, I'm not sure looking at both of them together tells us anything other than what we already know--he hit a lot of homeruns.[ October 14, 2010, 04:08 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]
Chance favors the prepared mind.
Jose Bautista
Originally posted by bjoak:
quote:Originally posted by mlbbug:
Here are some metrics for Jose Buatista from 2006(1st year of full time AB's) to 2010.
HR/AB '06-25/'07-35.5/'08-24.7/'09-25.8/'10-10.5
FB% '06-47/'07-43/'08-39/'09-42/'10-54
HR/FB% '06-12/'07-8/'08-14/'09-12/'10-22
Looking at these metrics we see numbers that can't be sustained by anybody not in the Hall of Fame.When these stats normalize,as they most certainly will,I would not want to be the guy who used a 3rd round pick on Jose Bautista.I'm not saying that he'll totally fall of the earth in 2011,just that he'll most certainly be overvalued in most if not all drafts. I'm always confused about why people choose these stats. Some people quote the HR/FB and say it went up unsustainably; then some people look at the FB% and say the same thing. But we know there are such things as real breakouts and that if someone increases their homerun rate one of these things has to go up along with it. So which one is real and which one is the noise? With apologies to mlbbug, I'm not sure looking at both of them together tells us anything other than what we already know--he hit a lot of homeruns. [/QUOTE]I'm not a huge fan of using these stats to look at a breakout. Judging the breakout of a player on home runs (or derivatives like HR/FB) is kind of like judging a pitcher based on wins. Line drive %, swinging strike %, and walk rate are a couple of my more preferred stats among the basic stats. I'll also add that I'm inherently skeptical of a guy making such a ridiculous breakout in his age 29 season.
quote:Originally posted by mlbbug:
Here are some metrics for Jose Buatista from 2006(1st year of full time AB's) to 2010.
HR/AB '06-25/'07-35.5/'08-24.7/'09-25.8/'10-10.5
FB% '06-47/'07-43/'08-39/'09-42/'10-54
HR/FB% '06-12/'07-8/'08-14/'09-12/'10-22
Looking at these metrics we see numbers that can't be sustained by anybody not in the Hall of Fame.When these stats normalize,as they most certainly will,I would not want to be the guy who used a 3rd round pick on Jose Bautista.I'm not saying that he'll totally fall of the earth in 2011,just that he'll most certainly be overvalued in most if not all drafts.
I'm always confused about why people choose these stats. Some people quote the HR/FB and say it went up unsustainably; then some people look at the FB% and say the same thing. But we know there are such things as real breakouts and that if someone increases their homerun rate one of these things has to go up along with it. So which one is real and which one is the noise? With apologies to mlbbug, I'm not sure looking at both of them together tells us anything other than what we already know--he hit a lot of homeruns. [/QUOTE]I'm not a huge fan of using these stats to look at a breakout. Judging the breakout of a player on home runs (or derivatives like HR/FB) is kind of like judging a pitcher based on wins. Line drive %, swinging strike %, and walk rate are a couple of my more preferred stats among the basic stats. I'll also add that I'm inherently skeptical of a guy making such a ridiculous breakout in his age 29 season.Jose Bautista
Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:
quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:
To quote Tommy from Karate Kid, "Get him a body bag! Yeah!" Mr. Zola, I just went through all of your NFBC teams from last year and Jose Bautista was not on a single one of your teams. He went in the 30th round and the 29th round of two 15-team leagues you were in last year and still you showed him no love. Now you love him enough to declare he will hit 35+ homers in 2011? That's falling fast for someone.
You have some explaining to do. And you'll get your chance on Nov. 6th in front of a live audience. See you there. [/QUOTE]Did you happen to check who I had on reserve in the NFBC keeper league? Or who I picked in the reserve draft for the XFL league?
Truth be told, it was late in the spring that the Blue Jays announced that Bautista would be their leadoff hitter. In 15 team leagues with reserves, he then became a very attractive reserve, not because I expected 50+ HR, but because once injuries kick in, at bats are currency and a full time hitter with some power with dual 3B/OF eligibility had some value. I know this is the reason I took him in the XFL. I don't recall the timing of the other leagues or when it was actually announced he would lead off, but he was on my radar for a nice reserve at the end of March.
quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:
To quote Tommy from Karate Kid, "Get him a body bag! Yeah!" Mr. Zola, I just went through all of your NFBC teams from last year and Jose Bautista was not on a single one of your teams. He went in the 30th round and the 29th round of two 15-team leagues you were in last year and still you showed him no love. Now you love him enough to declare he will hit 35+ homers in 2011? That's falling fast for someone.
You have some explaining to do. And you'll get your chance on Nov. 6th in front of a live audience. See you there.
[/QUOTE]Did you happen to check who I had on reserve in the NFBC keeper league? Or who I picked in the reserve draft for the XFL league?Truth be told, it was late in the spring that the Blue Jays announced that Bautista would be their leadoff hitter. In 15 team leagues with reserves, he then became a very attractive reserve, not because I expected 50+ HR, but because once injuries kick in, at bats are currency and a full time hitter with some power with dual 3B/OF eligibility had some value. I know this is the reason I took him in the XFL. I don't recall the timing of the other leagues or when it was actually announced he would lead off, but he was on my radar for a nice reserve at the end of March.
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Jose Bautista
Originally posted by whipsaw:
]I'm not a huge fan of using these stats to look at a breakout. Judging the breakout of a player on home runs (or derivatives like HR/FB) is kind of like judging a pitcher based on wins. Line drive %, swinging strike %, and walk rate are a couple of my more preferred stats among the basic stats. I'll also add that I'm inherently skeptical of a guy making such a ridiculous breakout in his age 29 season. I disagree with this contention. Judging a player on RBI is akin to wins, but not HR/FB. I will admit there is more noise in HR/FB than something like K/9 for pitchers, but there is a skill level to HR/FB that can be analyzed. HR/FB is akin to BABIP in that pitchers generally regress to the same number but hitters establish their own baseline.
I agree with bjoak's comment about the overuse of the term unsustainable. Unsustainable is just a way of saying regression is expected. You know what? I do a study every season and a whopping 70% of batters regress one year to the next.
I am guilty of using the word unsustainable, but I reserved it for extreme outliers, intending to connote something that is now lost in the fog since the word is indeed used mainstream.
As an example, Bautista was second in HR/FB this season at 21.7%. But there were a handful of players just a tick below. His rate was within what is expected from random distribution. Votto lead the league at 25%. This is what I would refer to as unsustainable, since it is an outlier, higher than what could be explained by randomness. So when I would say unsustainable, I would mean statistically unsustainable - he couldn't keep flipping so many heads, tails would have to come up at some point. The more common use of unsustainable was more skill-wise, which as I said, was more of a DUH type comment, as there is a better chance of regression than sustaining or improving, by decent margin.
Another way to look at it is Bautista has a better chance of repeating his 21.7% than Votto has repeating his 25%. The reason is strip away the names and consider just the numbers. There is a better chance 21.7% is real than 25%.
Now to really confuse matters and set myself up as a butt of Doughboy's next schtick, a strong argument can be made that even though Bautista's HR/FB was likely more "real", next season, Votto will have a better HR/FB than Bautista. It is just that both their numbers are apt to be below the 21.7% Bautista displayed this season.
Obviously, Greg and I are going to have some fun in Phoenix arguing this. I am talking the 35+ side for a couple of reasons. I know Greg has history on his side and that is going to be one heck of an argument to refute. But everything has never happened until it happens. There is something tangibly different with Bautista, he is a better hitter than he was in previous seasons.
I admit there is some noise, aka luck in HR/FB, but there has to be some improved skill there as well, the question is how much?
While I am not sure that hitting more fly balls is a skill, the fact is he hit more. HR are a function of 2 things. Your HR rate in terms of HR/FB and the number of fly balls. No matter what your HR/FB is, if you hit more flies, you will hit more homers. And he hit more flies. The question is, will he repeat that elevated rate next season?
And finally, if you look at Bautista's hit chart, he has become a dead pull hitter. It wasn't until the last week of the season that he hit a dinger the opposite way. This is in contrast to previous seasons where he used more of the field. I do not point this out as positive evidence that he will hit a ton more homers. I merely point it out as another data point to demonstrate he is indeed a different hitter than in previous seasons as he has altered his swing mechanics. The question is, with an off-season to study tape, will pitchers find a hole in Bautista's new approach and exploit that?
[ October 14, 2010, 10:27 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]
]I'm not a huge fan of using these stats to look at a breakout. Judging the breakout of a player on home runs (or derivatives like HR/FB) is kind of like judging a pitcher based on wins. Line drive %, swinging strike %, and walk rate are a couple of my more preferred stats among the basic stats. I'll also add that I'm inherently skeptical of a guy making such a ridiculous breakout in his age 29 season. I disagree with this contention. Judging a player on RBI is akin to wins, but not HR/FB. I will admit there is more noise in HR/FB than something like K/9 for pitchers, but there is a skill level to HR/FB that can be analyzed. HR/FB is akin to BABIP in that pitchers generally regress to the same number but hitters establish their own baseline.
I agree with bjoak's comment about the overuse of the term unsustainable. Unsustainable is just a way of saying regression is expected. You know what? I do a study every season and a whopping 70% of batters regress one year to the next.
I am guilty of using the word unsustainable, but I reserved it for extreme outliers, intending to connote something that is now lost in the fog since the word is indeed used mainstream.
As an example, Bautista was second in HR/FB this season at 21.7%. But there were a handful of players just a tick below. His rate was within what is expected from random distribution. Votto lead the league at 25%. This is what I would refer to as unsustainable, since it is an outlier, higher than what could be explained by randomness. So when I would say unsustainable, I would mean statistically unsustainable - he couldn't keep flipping so many heads, tails would have to come up at some point. The more common use of unsustainable was more skill-wise, which as I said, was more of a DUH type comment, as there is a better chance of regression than sustaining or improving, by decent margin.
Another way to look at it is Bautista has a better chance of repeating his 21.7% than Votto has repeating his 25%. The reason is strip away the names and consider just the numbers. There is a better chance 21.7% is real than 25%.
Now to really confuse matters and set myself up as a butt of Doughboy's next schtick, a strong argument can be made that even though Bautista's HR/FB was likely more "real", next season, Votto will have a better HR/FB than Bautista. It is just that both their numbers are apt to be below the 21.7% Bautista displayed this season.
Obviously, Greg and I are going to have some fun in Phoenix arguing this. I am talking the 35+ side for a couple of reasons. I know Greg has history on his side and that is going to be one heck of an argument to refute. But everything has never happened until it happens. There is something tangibly different with Bautista, he is a better hitter than he was in previous seasons.
I admit there is some noise, aka luck in HR/FB, but there has to be some improved skill there as well, the question is how much?
While I am not sure that hitting more fly balls is a skill, the fact is he hit more. HR are a function of 2 things. Your HR rate in terms of HR/FB and the number of fly balls. No matter what your HR/FB is, if you hit more flies, you will hit more homers. And he hit more flies. The question is, will he repeat that elevated rate next season?
And finally, if you look at Bautista's hit chart, he has become a dead pull hitter. It wasn't until the last week of the season that he hit a dinger the opposite way. This is in contrast to previous seasons where he used more of the field. I do not point this out as positive evidence that he will hit a ton more homers. I merely point it out as another data point to demonstrate he is indeed a different hitter than in previous seasons as he has altered his swing mechanics. The question is, with an off-season to study tape, will pitchers find a hole in Bautista's new approach and exploit that?
[ October 14, 2010, 10:27 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]
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Greg Ambrosius
- Posts: 41100
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Jose Bautista
I don't know where he went in the first NFBC Slow Draft of the season that Dan is coordinating, but he just went in the third round in the MB draft. He went 41st overall.
3.11 Jose Bautista- Catch
Interesting. It will be fun to see how Bautista performs next year, but he's definitely on the fantasy radar for 2011.
All good points Todd and we will have a fun cage match where neither of us will be proven wrong on Nov. 6.
3.11 Jose Bautista- Catch
Interesting. It will be fun to see how Bautista performs next year, but he's definitely on the fantasy radar for 2011.
All good points Todd and we will have a fun cage match where neither of us will be proven wrong on Nov. 6.
Greg Ambrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
Founder, National Fantasy Baseball Championship
General Manager, Consumer Fantasy Games at SportsHub Technologies
Twitter - @GregAmbrosius
Jose Bautista
He went at 3.1 in the Premature E-Draftulation League
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Jose Bautista
Fortunately, I am only arguing the HR +/- total with Greg. Even if I feel he will hit 35-40 HR he is not going to be on any of my squads due to his batting average. Even with the improved walk and contact rate, his average is still low. If you take away 25 HR from his total, that is 25 hits. OK, some will be doubles, so let's say he loses 15 hits. That is a TON of BA points. In 500 AB, that is 30 points.
That comps him with Adam Dunn and Dan Uggla. Uggla has 2B going for him and Dunn has the fact he has produced like this for 5 years so there is less of a risk he really struggles.
That comps him with Adam Dunn and Dan Uggla. Uggla has 2B going for him and Dunn has the fact he has produced like this for 5 years so there is less of a risk he really struggles.
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