First Weekend vs. Second

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 5:49 am

I am reassessing whether I would like to play in the main event this year. One thing I am considering is which weekend I'd like to play in. Looking at last year's contest, I found these stats:

27% of people played in weekend one.

20% of top 20 finishers played in weekend one

Many of the top players with two teams did better in weekend two, including Gekko, Jupinka, and Childs.

Ultimately, this is a zero sum game. The same number of points comes out of each league so teams in the first weekend as a whole have finished just as well as those in the second. Still, my hypothesis is and has been that information about injuries and playing time make weekend two teams less prone to luck than weekend one.

The idea is that good players like Jupinka will do better under circumstances that minimize luck and maximize skill. If you suck, you'd want to play in weekend one and maximize your luck! I would say most people in the top 20 are skilled players so it makes sense that they are also people who maxed out their skill but the top twenty is probably not a big enough sample to make any firm conclusions.

What are your thoughts? Did you play both weekends? If you played in the second, how do you compare it to other years?

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 6:16 am

Brian, which site did the players in the "top 20" draft from? did the top finishers draft in Vegas on week 2 because they like the Vegas trip? just curious if week 2 in Vegas attracts the top players because of the skill and the trip. could be a moot point.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Oct 23, 2010 2:00 pm

They were from all over. I could do some more careful analysis, but if most people were from, say, New York, then some would argue that NY has the best players, while others would argue NY has the weakest players thereby making it easier for the good players to win. Also, I think taking advantage of weak players is not my strong suit. I'm more about the plan. Give me an expert draft any day. The point is that I don't really care where the best players are. I am more concerned with whether the second weekend gives a legitimate advantage to more skilled players.

Joe Sambito · Post by **Joe Sambito** » Mon Oct 25, 2010 4:25 am

Weekend One seems like their may be more "opportunities". Mostly in the relief pitching department. I can see benefits to each weekend. Mine may end up being a non-baseball decision which is the beauty of the two-weekend format.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Oct 25, 2010 6:02 am

Which week is the better week to draft? Which week affords the better opportunity? 1st mover vs later data points. Pros and cons for both (which have been discussed before in prior threads)are valid.

I think the drafter who drafts BOTH will realize greater results in each week over drafting just one particular week, whether it be week 1 or 2

DRAFTER A drafting both weeks:

Week 1 a 90% score

Week 2 a 90% score

DRAFTER A drafting only one week:

Week 1 an 80% score

Week 2 an 80% score

-this I believe is due to the psychological aspect of it. If you know you have two shots at say draining a foul shot for $1 million, both shots will probably be more accurate as opposed to a tense filled one and done scenario.

To add, a BOTH drafter in addition to having relevant accurate ADP information will have had a good exercise in draft flow. ADP could be available to non 1st week drafters but the individual paired with that AND with a draft flow feel could turn out to be better armed.

Therefore I believe if you have to choose one, Week 1 would be a better opportunity for success over Week 2.

[ October 25, 2010, 01:04 PM: Message edited by: Quahogs ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Oct 25, 2010 6:09 am

A BOTH drafter?

Lets call him a bi-draftual.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Oct 25, 2010 6:48 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

A BOTH drafter?

Lets call him a bi-draftual. Literary license. I call dual drafters BOTHers. Both in this case is an adjective, not a preposition. Only my world of course

[ October 25, 2010, 12:49 PM: Message edited by: Quahogs ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:06 am

A top 10 list?

A BOTHer...not to be confused with a bother.

An ARKer...two by two

A Bi-drafter

A Dual-ly

Two bites of the apple

Jeter-ing

Going back for seconds

If at first..., try again

Do-overs

I can't eat just one

[ October 25, 2010, 01:07 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Mon Oct 25, 2010 7:24 am

Sloppy seconds - if your 2nd draft is worse than your 1st.

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Wed Oct 27, 2010 1:57 pm

I think it's pretty simple why a greater percentage of top 20 teams came out of week 2 and why the top players with two teams had better teams in week 2. The difference in competition between the two weeks.

What was the makeup of the league registrants in week one? A large percentage were the accomplished player looking for a 2nd opportunity at the $100K. All your successful players for the most part took a 2nd team.

Same amount of sharks, less leagues to spread them out in, greater shark to league ratio, tougher to win the league, tougher to create and maintain a team that can win the overall. Simple arithmetic.

Glenn

Fourslot40 · Post by **Fourslot40** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 2:16 am

My decision is certainly not based on competition. Part of the Vegas experience is being there for March Madness. Some may disagree, but this adds value to my trip. Week one is simply more enticing due to the larger amount of NCAA games being played. In my opinion, I feel it's silly to allow competition dictate where and when you draft. I guess everyone is different and I understand wanting an advantage, but I've always been of the mentality that to be the best, you have to beat the best. It's more rewarding to go head-to-head and win against the favorite. That's how you make a name for yourself.

Just my opinion... looking forward to 2011.

cugjp1 · Post by **cugjp1** » Thu Oct 28, 2010 12:04 pm

Would that make those that only attend one, draft dodgers?

Cobb · Post by **Cobb** » Fri Oct 29, 2010 4:10 pm

Originally posted by Fourslot40:

My decision is certainly not based on competition. Part of the Vegas experience is being there for March Madness. Some may disagree, but this adds value to my trip. Week one is simply more enticing due to the larger amount of NCAA games being played. In my opinion, I feel it's silly to allow competition dictate where and when you draft. I guess everyone is different and I understand wanting an advantage, but I've always been of the mentality that to be the best, you have to beat the best. It's more rewarding to go head-to-head and win against the favorite. That's how you make a name for yourself.

Just my opinion... looking forward to 2011. I hear you fourslot, but I think I'd rather win the overall title to make a name for myself rather than beat the best in a stacked league.

I speak from experience as the survivor of AC #2. I may have beaten Jupinka, EddieG, Magner, and about 10 other top notch owners, but it would of been very difficult to win the overall out of that league...not impossible, as I left a few picks out there as well as a bunch of other owners did, but it would of taken a near perfect draft and a lot of luck with injuries and pickups. Which leads to the big difference, which is the FAAB. It was tough to both figure out the bids and get the players you wanted, you had to go high and everybody was on point for the same guys pretty much.

I'm certainly happy to have won that league, but you won't see too many people say they don't want to deal with me in their league because they still don't know me. What I got from winning that league was $5200 and an ulcer.

Good luck in 2011.

Fourslot40 · Post by **Fourslot40** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 2:51 am

I think everyone would agree that ulcers are a part of the yearly experience regardless of what league you are in... haha.

Fourslot40 · Post by **Fourslot40** » Sat Oct 30, 2010 2:51 am

I think everyone would agree that ulcers are a part of the yearly experience regardless of what league you are in... haha.