Off-Season Player News: Bring Your Opinions

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 17, 2010 7:55 am

I wanted to start one thread where we can openly discuss the player moves being made this off-season and how they affect fantasy baseball. I'm going to do my best to stay on top of all of the off-season signings and trades here and have fun discussions on how they affect these players' values. If you see a move that I haven't listed, feel free to post it here with comments. I want baseball, baseball, and more baseball here.

Let's start here:

Dan Uggla is traded to the Braves

It looks like the Braves are going to keep Uggla at second base, but the move from Florida to Atlanta on the surface would look like it could hurt his offensive numbers. But digging a little deeper, maybe not. Last year Uggla hit .308-19-56 on the road and only .264-14-49 at Sun Life Stadium. I know that Turner Field isn't a hitter's park, but Uggla certainly can duplicate those numbers there.

I don't see this trade affecting Uggla negatively and in fact the move could be a good one for him. Let me know what you think of this move.

Let's do another one:

John Buck signs three-year, $18 million deal with Marlins

Wow, talk about cashing in on one good year. Sheesh. Buck hit .281-20-66 last year with the Blue Jays, hitting just .265-9-30 at home and .295-11-36 on the road. I'm not buying here in 2011. Before last season, his career BA was .235 and even in a great year Buck still had only 16 walks and 111 Ks in 409 at-bats. The power is legit -- remember, he hit 18 homers in only 113 games in 2007 -- but there's no way he hits near .281 next year. I'm staying away.

What's your thoughts on these two moves?

[ November 17, 2010, 01:55 PM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Wed Nov 17, 2010 8:16 am

the marlins are morons. nothing like giving away a 5 tool prospect who is developing nicely at AAA and a 30 hr 2nd baseman for 3 set up guys and a super utility guy who just pulled off a miracle season.

morons..... and now talk of coghlan in center? ouch. stay away from those pitchers with him in center and morrison in left.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:42 am

Rajai Davis is traded to the Blue Jays

Okay, it's official now: Jose Bautista will start at third base. He already qualifies at 3B and OF for fantasy purposes, but this should make him more valuable to the Jays. Davis goes to right field and provides some speed at the top of the lineup. But if this team only hits home runs, will they let him run as much as the A's did?

Davis stole 50 bases last year and 41 the year before, getting caught 11 times in 2010. He hit .284-5-52 with 66 runs last year and his home/away splits were interesting. You'd think his power would be down at the Coliseum, but he actually hit all of his home runs there: .269-5-32 with 20 SBs. On the road he hit .297-0-20 with 30 SBs. It will be interesting to see if he runs as much in Toronto, but if he doesn't his value definitely goes down.

Thoughts on this one?

751542 · Post by **751542** » Wed Nov 17, 2010 10:56 am

davis-hurts, earl weaver philosophy in tor

buck-a good deal for him now olivo if they sign him and he gets full time, he may be the big winner. i dont believe in jp...flash

uggla-awesome for atl, trying to compete with phili

infante-sneaky good for him, but still believe braves got better end

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:12 am

Uggla - Braves WIN! (Sorry Dave). Dunn has electric stuff but has yet to develop control. Omar had a career year and is a solid ballplayer who can play anywhere, but in no way is a starter (low power, no speed, won't be in a position in the order to drive in runs). Braves get a low BA type that is not up to par on defense, but getting that kind of power (25+ HR) is needed and Prado now becomes the fall back plan if "Less than" Chipper cannot cut it. If not, Prado can play left.

Buck - Marlins LOSE! Buck now reverts back to 10 dingers and a sub-.250 BA. And all for only $6 million a year!

Davis - Good for Toronto and upgrade everyone in the two, three and four holes (Hill, Bautista until he flops then Lind, Wells), especially if he gets his OBP up above .350. And Bautista will revert to form (low BA, occasional pop). Why would Oakland do this? Do they have that much talent? I am expecting Chris Carter to play, but they just do not appear to be that deep at the position in Oakland.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Nov 17, 2010 12:02 pm

I'm going to speak only of the Uggla deal. At the risk of sounding redundant to the fellas (Great fellas)in our e-mail draft, I thought the Marlins did ok.

The first tendency for any baseball fan, especially fantasy, is to measure ballplayers.

Uggla to the Braves for Infante and a reliever just sounds horrible.

But, put yourself in the Marlins position. Uggla laughed at their offer. I can relate to the cheap bastardness of the Marlins. When Uggla turned down the contract, it left them with only one option, trade him, and quick.

Their supposed team leader is Hanley Ramirez. Not the best case scenario. Infante gives them some real presence on the field, having a 'plus' head on his shoulders. Having Uggla to start the season waiting to get traded and possibly moping or griping and reading rumors would have been less than nurturing for the Marlin kids.

They also have holes to fill. They have a problem in center field and third base. Coghlan could fill the bill at 3b and if he fails, he could try 2b due to the versatility of Infante. I don't believe for a second the rumors about Coghlan playing center field, another deal will be struck.

For the Braves, they get a right handed power hitter to be the sandwich filling between Heyward and McCann. Yummy. The problem is money. Do they have enough to pay Uggla? Or do they get half of a year in return for Infante?

RotoWorld and all the other rumor mongers are ripping Florida for the move. Given that signing Uggla was an impossibility and could only be signed by 'the haves', the Marlins did ok.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:06 pm

Uggla - Value probably stays about the same. 30hr and a lower batting average this year.

Buck - Hr and not much else. Decent buy late guy. Not much change, although probably a little bit lower now.

[ November 17, 2010, 07:06 PM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Wed Nov 17, 2010 1:10 pm

R.Davis - I don't see any way he could do better than he did in Oakland. Only place for his value to go is lower. Maybe he's a Fred Lewis platoon partner.

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Wed Nov 17, 2010 4:05 pm

Uggla has always bothered me with his refusal to realize you can hit a ball to rightfield.But,he is a grip and rip dead pull hitter.In baseball it seems if you get a label you never lose the label.Some (many) will not buy into this.But,he has made himself into not just an average.But,I feel an above average fielder.I think it will be a big loss in the clubhouse.He has had to work every step of his getting to this point.I do not think Uggla would miss the last two weeks of the season with .300 shoulder like Hanley.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 5:30 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Uggla - Braves WIN! (Sorry Dave). Dunn has electric stuff but has yet to develop control. Omar had a career year and is a solid ballplayer who can play anywhere, but in no way is a starter (low power, no speed, won't be in a position in the order to drive in runs). Braves get a low BA type that is not up to par on defense, but getting that kind of power (25+ HR) is needed and Prado now becomes the fall back plan if "Less than" Chipper cannot cut it. If not, Prado can play left.

Buck - Marlins LOSE! Buck now reverts back to 10 dingers and a sub-.250 BA. And all for only $6 million a year!

Davis - Good for Toronto and upgrade everyone in the two, three and four holes (Hill, Bautista until he flops then Lind, Wells), especially if he gets his OBP up above .350. And Bautista will revert to form (low BA, occasional pop). Why would Oakland do this? Do they have that much talent? I am expecting Chris Carter to play, but they just do not appear to be that deep at the position in Oakland. It's important to remember that although Rajai is a stud in fantasy, his real value is much lower. He was a lot better when he had an OBP of .360, but .320 is below league average and damning to a guy who takes bad routes and can't hit for power. He's not an awful player but the A's have scores of mediocre outfielders. As an A's fan I wish they put him in a package that would get a little more, however. It's hard to get excited about a couple minor league RP's.

For fantasy, like Gekko said, it's hard to see his stock rising, but I don't think the trade itself will do anything but help. It's a better hitter's park and a better lineup to drive him in. Did you ever think you'd hear someone say, "He won't steal as much now that he's *leaving* Oakland?

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:01 am

i don't think davis starts against right handed pitchers- he is an awful hiiter against them. if he does- toronto got worse. he plays against righties your lead off guy is on base about 30% of the time- then he lowers that somewhat by getting thrown out trying to steal 20% of the time. the best part is- in oakland that stolen base made sense because he was followed by a bucnch of guys that were contact - not power - hitters. in toronto it is wasted because the next 8 guys are pretty much trying to hit a homer. those 8 guys are not going to be able to change their approach in spring training.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:13 am

ugla- his new manager came from florida- nuff said. btway- i think that pro sports should just be done away with in florida. all 4 pro leagues have been there long enough to realize that in a state of 20 million people there are about 200,000 fans spread out over about 10 pro teams. they can't even sell out the heat with bosch, james and wade. couldn't sell out 1 world series game in 2 world series that their team won. the pro leagues practically give florida a championship about every 2 years. it hasn't worked. the people in florida just have better things to do with their time and $.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:22 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

i don't think davis starts against right handed pitchers- he is an awful hiiter against them..279 over the last three years in righty-righty matchups. A lot of players would give their left nut to have that stat.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:34 am

I have a new computer and I still do not know why this happens occasionally :rolleyes:

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:37 am

Anyway, Barton sees more pitches and helps teammates by seeing those pitches and drives opposing pitchers pitch counts up. But as for fantasy baseball, he is James Loney-Lite.

Again, sorry for the screw up.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 6:52 am

dough- about 75 posts ago you said davis hit .279 against righties. i said his obp was 30%. both correct. your "numerish" as some smart guy put it- does not jive with what a leasdoff hitter is supposed to do- get on base. plus- in real ball- he is the opposite of barton - he makes outs and does not take walks . and no- lots of hitters in the majors would not want to have davis #'s. they would want to walk a lot and hit homers. which is why crappy fielders ( supposedly) like ugla and dunn will make 10-15 million a year and guys like davis make 1.5 miilion. looks like that gm in toronto is pretty good. i think he is stacking up pieces to get upton. looks like arizona- now that they have their stadium $- are gonna blow up that team.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 7:25 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I have a new computer and I still do not know why this happens occasionally :rolleyes: I cleaned up your mess Dan!!

Now don't spill again.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 7:32 am

Davis' OBP the last three years has been .320, .360 and .272. He walked 26 times in 525 ABs last year and has walked only 63 times in 1,129 ABs since 2008. That explains why he's averaged only 54 runs per year over the last three years.

I agree with some folks here, with all HR hitters behind him, who needs him to steal a base when he gets on base so infrequently?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:05 am

Astros acquire 2B Clint Barmes from the Rockies for RHP Felipe Paulino

I'm excited about this because it looks like Eric Young Jr. can now have a legitimate shot at being the starting second baseman in Colorado. I'd like to see what he can do with 400+ at-bats. Granted, he hit only .244 last year in 172 ABs, but he's capable of hitting .280+ and steal 40+ bases as a top of the order guy. He has good speed and I think he's going to be a good one.

I'll let others chime in about Barmes. I've never owned him as I tend to stay away from guys with historically low batting averages. He hit .235-8-50 last year in Colorado, but wasn't any better at Coors Field than away (.236-4-24 vs. .234-4-26). But it's unlikely he improves away from Coors.

Paulino is a good, young arm who has upside, but is there any fantasy value in Colorado? He was 1-9 in 14 starts with Houston last year with a 5.11 ERA and 46 walks in 91.2 innings. Still just 27, he projects as a possible SP, but he needs to improve quickly after going 6-21 over the last three years.

Thoughts here?

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:16 am

this is a great trade for colorado. as you point out with e young jr in the wings (and herrera frankly) barmes is a waste of roster space. sure he he has had some good runs but he isnt the rockies future, but paulino could be.

yes. that record is appalling but id say a lot of it has to do with the POS team behind him. late this past year he seemed to be putting it together as his walks were diminishing til his injury. he goes to COL with more upside than de la rosa and he turned out ok.

buying on young and paulino, but selling on barmes.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:20 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

dough- about 75 posts ago you said davis hit .279 against righties. i said his obp was 30%. both correct. your "numerish" as some smart guy put it- does not jive with what a leasdoff hitter is supposed to do- get on base. plus- in real ball- he is the opposite of barton - he makes outs and does not take walks . and no- lots of hitters in the majors would not want to have davis #'s. they would want to walk a lot and hit homers. which is why crappy fielders ( supposedly) like ugla and dunn will make 10-15 million a year and guys like davis make 1.5 miilion. looks like that gm in toronto is pretty good. i think he is stacking up pieces to get upton. looks like arizona- now that they have their stadium $- are gonna blow up that team. I'm not sure why there is this assumption that if he is in the line-up he has to bat leadoff. Last year he had more at bats from other spots.

As far as the stolen bases, he stole at an 82% clip last year. If he can keep that up, he should always be going. I don't think you hold him back on the off chance that this is the one in every 24 plate appearances that the Blue Jays hit a home run (making the huge assumption that the Jays don't regress next year).

[ November 18, 2010, 03:23 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:42 am

we agree here. he should not bat leadoff and i don't have any problem with him stealing. he has great fantasy worth, but as a 1 hitter he probably is a negative and as an 8 hitter i would probably go with someone else against righties. just my opinion. my point on the stealing is it really lacks a lot of worth when the base stolen doesn't really result in a run very often. a good use of a guy like him would be if billy butler or some other slow ground ball hitter was batting after him- to avoid the double play. with a bunch of guys either k'ing or hittin homers coming up it just lacks value to me. he scored 66 runs ( i think) for the a's. he might score 55 with the blue jays.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:42 am

At the risk of posting a dozen posts in one (I hate this new computer, the wife loves it, she wins), Brian is right, he could end up batting seventh or eighth. Besides, a leadoff hitter isn't the same in Toronto as a leadoff hitter anywhere else anyway. The guy leading off for them to start the year last year led the league in home runs. He does not have to have a GREAT obp. But, he is a great athlete, and he will keep stealing bases, and who knows, if he drinks some of the Toronto kool-aid, maybe he'll hit for more power.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:46 am

Mike, I deleted most of my post(s), in it, I did say that Barton was the polar opposite of Davis.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Nov 18, 2010 9:54 am

geez dan- the only reason besides getting on base that you might bat a guy leadoff( that doesn't get on base much) is to have him see more fastballs and hit a lot of homers. like soriano. to start managing a team so one guys stats are more important than the team is not a winning formula- which is one reason the cubs don't win. and davis won't hit more homers. davis did bat leadoff for the a's- but maybe only against lefties. i get that. i also do get the homer/ fastball hitter thing- they tried it with stubbs in cinci but that was because they did not have a true leadoff hitter. same as toronto. you 2 will probably be correct in what toronto will do- bat him 7th or 8th. is he better than lewis? i think they make another trade.