#1 Overall Pick - ALBERT vs. HANLEY

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 9:10 am

Let me first say that I already know who I plan on taking with the first overall pick in the upcoming $375.00 SLOW DRAFT Draft, but I want to get opinions on this from the masses of NFBC baseball junkies.

After SEVERAL heated discussions with a few of my buddies here in Wisconsin on who I should take with the #1 pick, I think it is worth discussing here.

Albert Pujols vs. Hanley Ramirez. Who deserves to be #1 in 2011 in your opinion, or is there somebody else even more worthy than these two fantasy monsters?

751542 · Post by **751542** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 9:41 am

i believe albert will hold steady at the #1 slot again this year but i can guarantee hanley WILL NOT be the cleacut #2....a mixture of tulo, cargo and votto with hanley mixed in is more of what i expect from the #2 draftslot this year...whats your flavor??

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 9:53 am

Based on Position, Age, Steals, and his 2nd full year hitting in the 3 Hole, I am going Hanley. He had a down year last year, but I feel the position elevation Hanley gives you at SS over most guys not named Tulo is huge. Middle Infield is pretty shallow and to build a team around Hanley is a good place to start!

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 10:09 am

I think Pujols is the clear-cut choice as the #1 pick, but would easily take "the field" if the bet was who finishes #1, Pujols or someone else?

But, the beauty of Pujols is if he does not finish #1, barring injury, he will still be almost definitely top-5 to 10. There is NO ONE else with that track record of reliability. You reward that reliability with the #1 choice overall.

I agree with RT about #2.

And I agree with WE that at least on Dec.3, I would take Hanley at 1.02. The upside potential is through the roof and the downside is still pretty good. Hanley is a fun guy to look at. I can't recall looking at anyone that has the BA, HR and SB fluctuate so much from year to year, without something connecting the ups and downs.

If he ever were to nail all 3 the same season, he would turn in one of the all-time great fantasy seasons. He always seems to get 2 of the 3, never all 3 the same season.

And if he happens to struggle in all 3, you still have a pretty decent SS, just not a top-10 guy.

[ December 03, 2010, 04:10 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

751542 · Post by **751542** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 10:53 am

my problem with hanley, more than the numbers, is i am seeing and hearing he is not a leader(i know that has nothing to do with fantasy numbers). pujols, tulo, cabrera, votto are all clear leaders. maybe, since they got rid of gonzalez, he will not be as much of a malcontent. he has a hi upside but personally i like the others upside more. 1 thing thru the years i have always liked about hanley is that he is a gamer, atleast until last year. whats your flavor. i can tell you that i have done 2 drafts and hanley was not #2 in either.

751542 · Post by **751542** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 10:56 am

btw, i was one of those picks at #2

Ando · Post by **Ando** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 11:53 am

And I was #3 in one of them and took Cargo over Hanley.....

Bottom line, you can't go wrong here. Each of Cargo, Tulo, and Hanley can be justified at #2 without much argument.

As Rick said, pick your flavor. You will be happy!

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 11:55 am

totally agree with RT about Hanley, if i have 2-3 players from which i'm debating over, the malcontent is marked off the list first.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 12:19 pm

WOW... You guys are killing me! I am leaning Pujols a bit now

.... This is a tough decision for me. The fact that he is 27 now and no longer has Uggla to be the leader, is what keeps telling me Hanley will finally piece it all together this year and step up for 162 games....

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 12:24 pm

Originally posted by Ando:

And I was #3 in one of them and took Cargo over Hanley.....

Bottom line, you can't go wrong here. Each of Cargo, Tulo, and Hanley can be justified at #2 without much argument.

As Rick said, pick your flavor. You will be happy! no way i go cargo over hanley. cargo has produced as an all star for 1 season. im not taking any risk of a sophmore slump. i dont like that k/bb ratio and he has had injuries in the past. if im going to miss on someone at 2.. they are going to be more proven than cargo. miggy or hanley over cargo fo shizzle.

Cornhusker · Post by **Cornhusker** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 12:44 pm

With Uggla departing, Hanley has ZERO lineup protection. I would take Pujols and Tulo easily ahead of him. If Hanley's steals drop slightly he will no longer be even 1st round worthy considering the definte drop in runs and rbi.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 12:45 pm

I think most know I rely on the numbers more than some of the more human elements of player analysis, but if I were into the more abstract thinking, the fact Freddi Gonzalez is now skippering in Atlanta would bode well for me when looking at Hanley.

DiamondKing · Post by **DiamondKing** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 2:13 pm

I have touted Hanley all along.But,give 30 million to a 12 year old,you have Hanley.Uggla was gone the moment he turned down 4 for 48.But,I know the team was worried about Uggla and Ramirez coexisting on the same team.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 2:44 pm

Hanley has and can do it ALL! He has gone through a period like Gary Sheffield and other young punks have and needed a kick in the tail (almost provided by Andre Dawson who works for the Marlins). He will be forced into a true leadership role this year and being a bit older and going through the ups and downs of a few MLB seasons now, hopefully he will be ready to go!

Pujols is the best in the game, but when looking at position on the diamond and where I pick again #30 & #31, I still think Hanley for my team will be the fit this year.

Looks like I have until Monday now to make my final decision!

TOXIC ASSETS · Post by **TOXIC ASSETS** » Fri Dec 03, 2010 10:18 pm

Bottom line, you can't go wrong here

-----------------------------------------

Actually you can go wrong, very easily. That's what makes fantasy sports fun and unpredictable. There are few if any "sure things".

Leaving out the real possibility of any of these guys getting hurt....Pujols is the clear cut #1, he puts up hall of fame numbers every year now for the last decade. Tulo, Hanley, Cargo, all good players but you never know. Except for a monster September this past season, Tulo wasn't anywhere near a #2 pick. Cargo? One great year. See Tulowitzki, 2008 as an example of a terrible year following a great year. Hanley is pretty consistent but has no Uggla this year, probably means a drop off in a few numbers. Look at Jimmy Rollins a few years ago, one of the best players in the game, then all of a sudden he turns into Steve Jeltz.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 2:03 am

Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

WOW... You guys are killing me! I am leaning Pujols a bit now

.... This is a tough decision for me. The fact that he is 27 now and no longer has Uggla to be the leader, is what keeps telling me Hanley will finally piece it all together this year and step up for 162 games.... W.E.,

No doubt, Hanley, Tulo, Cargo, Votto, Miggy can go off and have No. 1 stats for 2011. Albert has put up the numbers for years now and is showing no decline and we expect no decline, barring injury. IMO, it's just a matter of taking a little more risk NOT taking Albert. but, taking chances can make a Champion. i guess maybe the best way to look at it, "what do you expect to get at the turn?" and "how does that fit with either player?"

JMO

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 2:23 am

Well said Bill and that is my worry about Middle Infield at the turn. I will need to weigh what I think will be there at #30 & #31. Albert is the #1 player, maybe just not for what I am trying to do for my team drafting #1!

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 3:10 am

Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

Well said Bill and that is my worry about Middle Infield at the turn. I will need to weigh what I think will be there at #30 & #31. Albert is the #1 player, maybe just not for what I am trying to do for my team drafting #1! in one of my better slow draft teams last year, i had #1 and took Albert. at the turn i took Votto and Phillips. that would be OK this year, too... food-4-thought...you can't win a league with the first 5-6 picks, but you can lose one..

[ December 04, 2010, 09:16 AM: Message edited by: Kentucky Reign ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 3:18 am

Sorry, but I will never understand how you can base a first round choice solely on what is left in rounds two and three, when you have rounds four to thirty to still pick.

It's not a comparison of Hanley plus #30 and #31 to Pujols plus #30 and #31 but rather Hanley plus the next 29 versus Pujols plus the next 29.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 3:30 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Sorry, but I will never understand how you can base a first round choice solely on what is left in rounds two and three, when you have rounds four to thirty to still pick.

It's not a comparison of Hanley plus #30 and #31 to Pujols plus #30 and #31 but rather Hanley plus the next 29 versus Pujols plus the next 29. i agree Todd. take the best players available, but scarcity comes into play and influences owners picks.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 3:59 am

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

Sorry, but I will never understand how you can base a first round choice solely on what is left in rounds two and three, when you have rounds four to thirty to still pick.

It's not a comparison of Hanley plus #30 and #31 to Pujols plus #30 and #31 but rather Hanley plus the next 29 versus Pujols plus the next 29. i agree Todd. take the best players available, but scarcity comes into play and influences owners picks. [/QUOTE]And it should. To a certain extent. I think Albert is such a beast, both in terms of production and reliability that you worry about finding your middle infield later. if nothing else, he gives you a foundation to take some chances later.

Once people start getting into mocks and slow drafts, they are going to see just how messed up the middle infield is this season, with so many guys falling from past draft positions (probably unfairly in most instances) due to a down 2010.

[ December 04, 2010, 10:00 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

bustouts · Post by **bustouts** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 4:02 am

Three times in the past 2 years , I chose Hanley over Pujols. Once was a draft champion league and the other 2 drafts were the 12 team double play. I liked the fact that I was potentially drafting a MI with the potential offensive upside of Pujols with the added benefit of more speed, not to mention hanley is my sons favorite player. I like to think I am pretty good at building a team from any draft position or any position period. I had no success in any of these leagues with this strategy and now given the choice, my pick would be Pujols!!

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 5:31 am

Originally posted by bustouts:

Three times in the past 2 years , I chose Hanley over Pujols. Once was a draft champion league and the other 2 drafts were the 12 team double play. I liked the fact that I was potentially drafting a MI with the potential offensive upside of Pujols with the added benefit of more speed, not to mention hanley is my sons favorite player. I like to think I am pretty good at building a team from any draft position or any position period. I had no success in any of these leagues with this strategy and now given the choice, my pick would be Pujols!! Dave, did you consider that it was an end pick instead of the player? I feel that pick#1 is not as optimal as some seem to believe.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 6:55 am

Man, I must say after starting this thread, listening to all the thoughts, going over stats, ADP's, the Bill James Handbook, etc.. Etc.. I am really still not sure what I am going to do.

Last year in my $325 Slow Draft I picked 13th. I got Longoria, Tulo, Haren, and Cano with my first 4 picks - I finished in 2nd Place. I would take that start again, even though I could do better than Haren in the 3rd Round!

Long story short, everybody builds their team differently, but I am starting to wonder if not taking Pujols with the #1 Pick would be a mistake? I will continue to think on it every other second until the draft starts!

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 10:39 am

Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

Man, I must say after starting this thread, listening to all the thoughts, going over stats, ADP's, the Bill James Handbook, etc.. Etc.. I am really still not sure what I am going to do.

Last year in my $325 Slow Draft I picked 13th. I got Longoria, Tulo, Haren, and Cano with my first 4 picks - I finished in 2nd Place. I would take that start again, even though I could do better than Haren in the 3rd Round!

Long story short, everybody builds their team differently, but I am starting to wonder if not taking Pujols with the #1 Pick would be a mistake? I will continue to think on it every other second until the draft starts! Just have some Nad's and take Tulo......You draft the SS and look for the 1B on the turn. Last year Votto could have been there and in 2009 Fielder was. Let the Pujols jackass's find the next elite middle infielder!