#1 Overall Pick - ALBERT vs. HANLEY

The Franchise · Post by **The Franchise** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 11:01 am

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

Man, I must say after starting this thread, listening to all the thoughts, going over stats, ADP's, the Bill James Handbook, etc.. Etc.. I am really still not sure what I am going to do.

Last year in my $325 Slow Draft I picked 13th. I got Longoria, Tulo, Haren, and Cano with my first 4 picks - I finished in 2nd Place. I would take that start again, even though I could do better than Haren in the 3rd Round!

Long story short, everybody builds their team differently, but I am starting to wonder if not taking Pujols with the #1 Pick would be a mistake? I will continue to think on it every other second until the draft starts! Just have some Nad's and take Tulo......You draft the SS and look for the 1B on the turn. Last year Votto could have been there and in 2009 Fielder was. Let the Pujols jackass's find the next elite middle infielder! [/QUOTE]Tulo and A-Gon would have been a nice start! Too bad he became a 1st Rd pick as of 7:30AM today......

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 2:19 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

Man, I must say after starting this thread, listening to all the thoughts, going over stats, ADP's, the Bill James Handbook, etc.. Etc.. I am really still not sure what I am going to do.

Last year in my $325 Slow Draft I picked 13th. I got Longoria, Tulo, Haren, and Cano with my first 4 picks - I finished in 2nd Place. I would take that start again, even though I could do better than Haren in the 3rd Round!

Long story short, everybody builds their team differently, but I am starting to wonder if not taking Pujols with the #1 Pick would be a mistake? I will continue to think on it every other second until the draft starts! Just have some Nad's and take Tulo......You draft the SS and look for the 1B on the turn. Last year Votto could have been there and in 2009 Fielder was. Let the Pujols jackass's find the next elite middle infielder! [/QUOTE]Shawn, you STILL pumping Tulo? before you know it, everybody's going to be on to your scheme...

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 3:01 pm

In the last eight years, Albert has hit 40+ home runs six times.

In the last ten years, Albert has scored 100+ runs nine times (the one year he missed, he scored 99).

In the last ten years, Albert has driven in 115+ runs nine times (the one year he missed, he drove in 103).

In the last ten years, Albert has hit .310+ EVERY year.

I don't care what position he plays, nice going into any draft with a GUARANTEED .310/40/100/115 (not to mention the double digit stolen bases contributed the last two years) to build around. I'll start every draft like that smiling.

Tell me what guarantees you have choosing Tulo or Hanley or Cargo or Votto number 1. I'll guarantee you'll regret it.

Glenn

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 4:03 pm

it doesn't matter, the guy that picks first has long odds winning anyway... we need 3RR in baseball...

JK

[ December 04, 2010, 10:05 PM: Message edited by: Kentucky Reign ]

bustouts · Post by **bustouts** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 5:45 pm

quote:

Dave, did you consider that it was an end pick instead of the player? I feel that pick#1 is not as optimal as some seem to believe.

I dont know steve. I liked the guys I got on the turn in all drafts, but the end results just werent there. You were in one of the drafts , but I cant remember who I drafted.....I think it was Fielder and Phillips....a pretty good start, but yet a bad team. I just think that Pujols is just so consistent that I wouldnt pass him up this time given the choice.

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Sat Dec 04, 2010 7:17 pm

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

quote:Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

Man, I must say after starting this thread, listening to all the thoughts, going over stats, ADP's, the Bill James Handbook, etc.. Etc.. I am really still not sure what I am going to do.

Last year in my $325 Slow Draft I picked 13th. I got Longoria, Tulo, Haren, and Cano with my first 4 picks - I finished in 2nd Place. I would take that start again, even though I could do better than Haren in the 3rd Round!

Long story short, everybody builds their team differently, but I am starting to wonder if not taking Pujols with the #1 Pick would be a mistake? I will continue to think on it every other second until the draft starts! Just have some Nad's and take Tulo......You draft the SS and look for the 1B on the turn. Last year Votto could have been there and in 2009 Fielder was. Let the Pujols jackass's find the next elite middle infielder! [/QUOTE]Shawn, you STILL pumping Tulo? before you know it, everybody's going to be on to your scheme...

[/QUOTE]Bill, Childs plays Indian Poker at the table when the game is Texas Holdem !

TOXIC ASSETS · Post by **TOXIC ASSETS** » Sun Dec 05, 2010 1:08 am

Glenneration hit the nail on the head. In a business that is all about risk taking....you DO NOT take risks when you don't have to. Pujols is the easy choice at #1 and I personally would take Roy Halladay before taking any of the other guys mentioned.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Sun Dec 05, 2010 5:22 am

Well in the $375 Slow Draft you only need to finish in the Top 3 spots to get the prize! Pujols would surely be the save bet to start with. As far as going with a pitcher over Tulo, Hanley, Cargo or Votto, that I am not sure about...

Spartacus · Post by **Spartacus** » Sun Dec 05, 2010 7:29 am

Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

Well in the $375 Slow Draft you only need to finish in the Top 3 spots to get the prize! Pujols would surely be the save bet to start with. As far as going with a pitcher over Tulo, Hanley, Cargo or Votto, that I am not sure about... For my money I'd take Pujols for all the reasons listed above, and repeat the reliability point over and over again for emphasis! However, it's your money not mine. My advice is to enjoy yourself, take whoever you want. Your 1st round pick is not going to make or break you. Last year in the Main I took Utley-V Mart-Kendry with my first 3 picks. Lot's of lost games to the DL with that crew. One would think that my team would never recover, but somehow it still managed to win the league. And yes, I'm still scratching my 'draft theory' head over that as well!

Foo Dog · Post by **Foo Dog** » Sun Dec 05, 2010 8:42 am

First off looking at who has posted here, I don't rate with these giants, never the less here is my very humble opinion. With the #2 pick I want as close to a slam dunk as possible. Over the last 4 or so years only a very few players consistently return first round value. I would take Pujols then Miggy. I also read last year that more 2009 league champions had Miggy on there roster then any other player.

poopy tooth · Post by **poopy tooth** » Sun Dec 05, 2010 1:04 pm

Originally posted by uncle charlie:

First off looking at who has posted here, I don't rate with these giants, never the less here is my very humble opinion. With the #2 pick I want as close to a slam dunk as possible. Over the last 4 or so years only a very few players consistently return first round value. I would take Pujols then Miggy. I also read last year that more 2009 league champions had Miggy on there roster then any other player. the only player I'd consider besides miggy at two is votto. I believe will be consistent with last year. I pick second in one of the 150 leagues, do if you are third and like hanley, you got him!

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Sun Dec 05, 2010 2:33 pm

Well after thinking about it all weekend and running every possible draft scenario in my head, I will be jumping off of my Hanley Induced High and pick Albert Pujols with my first pick.

A lot of things that guys said made a lot of sense to me, but I think the one thing that stands out is how long Albert has put up these numbers and the team he has around him in St. Louis. The other thing that really helped put me over the top was the fact that he is in his Free Agent year and would like to BREAK THE BANK!

After starting this thread, I feel a little bit like Rusty in Summer Vacation after he slams his dads beer..."Good Talk Dad"!

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Sun Dec 05, 2010 5:02 pm

Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

Well after thinking about it all weekend and running every possible draft scenario in my head, I will be jumping off of my Hanley Induced High and pick Albert Pujols with my first pick.

A lot of things that guys said made a lot of sense to me, but I think the one thing that stands out is how long Albert has put up these numbers and the team he has around him in St. Louis. The other thing that really helped put me over the top was the fact that he is in his Free Agent year and would like to BREAK THE BANK!

After starting this thread, I feel a little bit like Rusty in Summer Vacation after he slams his dads beer..."Good Talk Dad"!

Baseball Furies · Post by **Baseball Furies** » Sun Dec 05, 2010 7:17 pm

Originally posted by WINSTON'S EMPIRE:

Well after thinking about it all weekend and running every possible draft scenario in my head, I will be jumping off of my Hanley Induced High and pick Albert Pujols with my first pick.

A lot of things that guys said made a lot of sense to me, but I think the one thing that stands out is how long Albert has put up these numbers and the team he has around him in St. Louis. The other thing that really helped put me over the top was the fact that he is in his Free Agent year and would like to BREAK THE BANK!

After starting this thread, I feel a little bit like Rusty in Summer Vacation after he slams his dads beer..."Good Talk Dad"! Amazing that it took this many posts to have you go ahead and do the obvious which you should have done in the first place.

LOL. Hey, it made for a lot of good reading anyway. Good luck.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Mon Dec 06, 2010 1:16 am

I know right! One of my buddies threatened to fly to Wisconsin from Colorado to smack me around if I did anything but take Pujols with the # 1 Pick!

Good luck in all the drafting that hopefully starts today all!

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Dec 06, 2010 5:21 am

Originally posted by RoundTrippers:

my problem with hanley, more than the numbers, is i am seeing and hearing he is not a leader(i know that has nothing to do with fantasy numbers). pujols, tulo, cabrera, votto are all clear leaders. maybe, since they got rid of gonzalez, he will not be as much of a malcontent. he has a hi upside but personally i like the others upside more. 1 thing thru the years i have always liked about hanley is that he is a gamer, atleast until last year. whats your flavor. i can tell you that i have done 2 drafts and hanley was not #2 in either. I don't think of myself as the type of guy who worries about such intangibles, but I have to say that it is hard to think of a bad clubhouse guy who didn't crash and burn quite suddenly. Sosa, Milledge, Dukes, Bradley, Everett. Maybe the morale just catches up with them all at once.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Dec 06, 2010 5:29 am

Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by Ando:

And I was #3 in one of them and took Cargo over Hanley.....

Bottom line, you can't go wrong here. Each of Cargo, Tulo, and Hanley can be justified at #2 without much argument.

As Rick said, pick your flavor. You will be happy! no way i go cargo over hanley. cargo has produced as an all star for 1 season. im not taking any risk of a sophmore slump. i dont like that k/bb ratio and he has had injuries in the past. if im going to miss on someone at 2.. they are going to be more proven than cargo. miggy or hanley over cargo fo shizzle. [/QUOTE]Cargo is not a sophomore and was fairly effective in a half season worth of at bats in 2009.

Gates · Post by **Gates** » Mon Dec 06, 2010 6:59 am

Max,

I really don't get why you are listening to everybody here. Go where your heart tells you to go, don't pick Pujols, he is overdue for a bad season anyway...Stick to what you planned in the first place...pick Hanley...

By the way, while you work on this, could you also convince the guy who picks behind you to not pick Pujols...

Just wanna help here...

Gaëtan (the guy who picks 3rd)...

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Mon Dec 06, 2010 7:09 am

Gates - That is awesome!

I have played many a head game with myself about this and the way I finalized it is simple. I am going to sign up for another $375.00 Slow Draft League and NOT get the # 1 pick in that one. I will have the best of both worlds at that point. Pujols in one league and somebody else in the other.

God only knows what KDS I will settle on once our $1,000 SLOW DRAFT League fills though!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Dec 06, 2010 7:17 am

Max, Pick first in your other draft too.

Take Pujols in one, Hanley the other...

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Mon Dec 06, 2010 7:34 am

I am going to wait to see what more accurate ADP's look like. I am not sure based on what I think today that #1 is the best spot to draft from this year. Time will tell...

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Mon Dec 06, 2010 7:49 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by Ando:

And I was #3 in one of them and took Cargo over Hanley.....

Bottom line, you can't go wrong here. Each of Cargo, Tulo, and Hanley can be justified at #2 without much argument.

As Rick said, pick your flavor. You will be happy! no way i go cargo over hanley. cargo has produced as an all star for 1 season. im not taking any risk of a sophmore slump. i dont like that k/bb ratio and he has had injuries in the past. if im going to miss on someone at 2.. they are going to be more proven than cargo. miggy or hanley over cargo fo shizzle. [/QUOTE]Cargo is not a sophomore and was fairly effective in a half season worth of at bats in 2009. [/QUOTE]as far as full seasons go.. he has yet to put together a 2nd full season.. sorry for the semantics.

yes.. he had a great 278 ab's with the Rox in '09. do you forget the brutal 302 ab's he had with the A's in '08? 81 k and 13 walks..

no doubt this dude has crazy skills, but if im going to burn a 2nd 3rd, or perhaps even 4th over all pick. I'm looking for someone thats done it for more than 1 full season.

lock and load pujols and with the v-mart add i have to think Miggy gets into the top 5 easy.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Mon Dec 06, 2010 11:19 am

Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by Ando:

And I was #3 in one of them and took Cargo over Hanley.....

Bottom line, you can't go wrong here. Each of Cargo, Tulo, and Hanley can be justified at #2 without much argument.

As Rick said, pick your flavor. You will be happy! no way i go cargo over hanley. cargo has produced as an all star for 1 season. im not taking any risk of a sophmore slump. i dont like that k/bb ratio and he has had injuries in the past. if im going to miss on someone at 2.. they are going to be more proven than cargo. miggy or hanley over cargo fo shizzle. [/QUOTE]Cargo is not a sophomore and was fairly effective in a half season worth of at bats in 2009. [/QUOTE]as far as full seasons go.. he has yet to put together a 2nd full season.. sorry for the semantics.

yes.. he had a great 278 ab's with the Rox in '09. do you forget the brutal 302 ab's he had with the A's in '08? 81 k and 13 walks..

no doubt this dude has crazy skills, but if im going to burn a 2nd 3rd, or perhaps even 4th over all pick. I'm looking for someone thats done it for more than 1 full season.

lock and load pujols and with the v-mart add i have to think Miggy gets into the top 5 easy. [/QUOTE]I'd say you should go for Lance Berkman or even Jason Giambi in the first round. They've had lots of good seasons. Cargo's splits make me nervous, but it's not really a mystery why he did poorly before he got to Coors.

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Tue Dec 07, 2010 6:29 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by Ando:

And I was #3 in one of them and took Cargo over Hanley.....

Bottom line, you can't go wrong here. Each of Cargo, Tulo, and Hanley can be justified at #2 without much argument.

As Rick said, pick your flavor. You will be happy! no way i go cargo over hanley. cargo has produced as an all star for 1 season. im not taking any risk of a sophmore slump. i dont like that k/bb ratio and he has had injuries in the past. if im going to miss on someone at 2.. they are going to be more proven than cargo. miggy or hanley over cargo fo shizzle. [/QUOTE]Cargo is not a sophomore and was fairly effective in a half season worth of at bats in 2009. [/QUOTE]as far as full seasons go.. he has yet to put together a 2nd full season.. sorry for the semantics.

yes.. he had a great 278 ab's with the Rox in '09. do you forget the brutal 302 ab's he had with the A's in '08? 81 k and 13 walks..

no doubt this dude has crazy skills, but if im going to burn a 2nd 3rd, or perhaps even 4th over all pick. I'm looking for someone thats done it for more than 1 full season.

lock and load pujols and with the v-mart add i have to think Miggy gets into the top 5 easy. [/QUOTE]I'd say you should go for Lance Berkman or even Jason Giambi in the first round. They've had lots of good seasons. Cargo's splits make me nervous, but it's not really a mystery why he did poorly before he got to Coors. [/QUOTE]ho ho ho wow.. what an informative response.... douche.

"it's not really a mystery why he did poorly before he got to Coors."so his ability is based strictly by his home park? wow..... great thinking einstein. clearly your advice on giambi and berkmann was probably based on your #1 and #2 picks last year?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Dec 07, 2010 6:55 am

Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by bjoak:

quote:Originally posted by swampass:

quote:Originally posted by Ando:

And I was #3 in one of them and took Cargo over Hanley.....

Bottom line, you can't go wrong here. Each of Cargo, Tulo, and Hanley can be justified at #2 without much argument.

As Rick said, pick your flavor. You will be happy! no way i go cargo over hanley. cargo has produced as an all star for 1 season. im not taking any risk of a sophmore slump. i dont like that k/bb ratio and he has had injuries in the past. if im going to miss on someone at 2.. they are going to be more proven than cargo. miggy or hanley over cargo fo shizzle. [/QUOTE]Cargo is not a sophomore and was fairly effective in a half season worth of at bats in 2009. [/QUOTE]as far as full seasons go.. he has yet to put together a 2nd full season.. sorry for the semantics.

yes.. he had a great 278 ab's with the Rox in '09. do you forget the brutal 302 ab's he had with the A's in '08? 81 k and 13 walks..

no doubt this dude has crazy skills, but if im going to burn a 2nd 3rd, or perhaps even 4th over all pick. I'm looking for someone thats done it for more than 1 full season.

lock and load pujols and with the v-mart add i have to think Miggy gets into the top 5 easy. [/QUOTE]I'd say you should go for Lance Berkman or even Jason Giambi in the first round. They've had lots of good seasons. Cargo's splits make me nervous, but it's not really a mystery why he did poorly before he got to Coors. [/QUOTE]So long as CarGo plays in Coors and the NFBC does not park-correct the stats in the standings, I am not so much concerned with the splits.

Though his home splits were exaggerated even for Coors, especially BABIP/BAVG. Some BAVG regression is obviously expected.

But heck, a couple of years ago, Sizemore was a mid first rounder with projections of .280-25/30-25/30 which is where Cargo downside appears.

My bigger concern is health, as he was always nicked up. You may not have noticed in weekly leagues, but in daily leagues it was apparent. He was either questionable or out quite a bit. In weekly leagues, you just leave him in. But it was a struggle knowing whether to play him in daily formats, especially with so many decent alternatives in the Rockie OF. One of these days, the nicky-knack injury will be more serious, with time on the DL.