Some NFBC Slow Draft Early Results

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Jan 12, 2011 11:34 am

The hype machine is rolling to what end?

Heyward has never hit more than 20 home runs in a season. He's never stolen more than 15 bases in a season. Yet, projections have him near doubling both in some cases.

Heyward's going to be a great player, but he either has to play through or avoid all the nicks he gets during a season.

I'll take him under the right circumstances, but he's a project whose projections make me want to hurl a projectile.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Wed Jan 12, 2011 11:39 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

The hype machine is rolling to what end?

Heyward has never hit more than 20 home runs in a season. He's never stolen more than 15 bases in a season. Yet, projections have him near doubling both in some cases.

Heyward's going to be a great player, but he either has to play through or avoid all the nicks he gets during a season.

I'll take him under the right circumstances, but he's a project whose projections make me want to hurl a projectile. as soon as he figures out how to lift some of the GB into FB, he will turn into a 30hr hitter overnight. will it be this year? next year? we are not debating if he will, only the timing of it. all aboard!

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Wed Jan 12, 2011 4:30 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

The hype machine is rolling to what end?

Heyward has never hit more than 20 home runs in a season. He's never stolen more than 15 bases in a season. Yet, projections have him near doubling both in some cases.

Heyward's going to be a great player, but he either has to play through or avoid all the nicks he gets during a season.

I'll take him under the right circumstances, but he's a project whose projections make me want to hurl a projectile. as soon as he figures out how to lift some of the GB into FB, he will turn into a 30hr hitter overnight. will it be this year? next year? we are not debating if he will, only the timing of it. all aboard!

[/QUOTE]Wonder if the Justin Upton owners of last year will be all aboard another young phenom this year.

The Franchise · Post by **The Franchise** » Thu Jan 13, 2011 1:06 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by The Franchise:

Someone needs to tell GG that Heyward is not going in the 4th anymore.

Nelson - He will be an early 3rd to mid 3rd rounder by the time the main event rolls around. Legit chance at 1st round value. [/QUOTE]Mark - I'm not denying the talent. My question is will/are you going to take him in the 3rd Rd?

sephrath · Post by **sephrath** » Thu Jan 13, 2011 4:08 am

You guys seem to be focused on round... but how many hitters taken after him are you truly confident are better then him if he simply just repeats 2010?

In my draft the only guy that fits that description is Choo, and honestly thy are pretty similar, and Heywards upside is significanlty higher then Choo...

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Thu Jan 13, 2011 4:54 am

i just know heyward will be turning all those ground balls into fly balls. just look at how carl crawford billy butler and ol' nicky markakis have done it. heyward is much bigger so i just think he hits harder ground balls.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Thu Jan 13, 2011 8:42 am

Originally posted by sephrath:

You guys seem to be focused on round... but how many hitters taken after him are you truly confident are better then him if he simply just repeats 2010?

In my draft the only guy that fits that description is Choo, and honestly thy are pretty similar, and Heywards upside is significanlty higher then Choo... nuff said

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Jan 13, 2011 11:17 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

i just know heyward will be turning all those ground balls into fly balls. just look at how carl crawford billy butler and ol' nicky markakis have done it. heyward is much bigger so i just think he hits harder ground balls. HEY! Don't pick on Markakis!

OK, you were right!

godfather's dean's list · Post by **godfather's dean's list** » Thu Jan 13, 2011 4:51 pm

surprised to see pedroia not slipping lower in some drafts, strictly on health issues; a gamer in an explosive lineup, so i guess it outweighs the negativity

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Jan 14, 2011 5:30 am

Okay, here's another Slow Draft result that you folks can chew on. Hopefully these are whetting your appetite for some baseball:

Round 1:

1. Albert Pujols

2. Miguel Cabrera

3. Troy Tulowitzki

4. Hanley Ramirez

5. Carl Crawford

6. Carlos Gonzalez

7. Joey Votto

8. Evan Longoria

9. Adrian Gonzalez

10. Ryan Braun

11. Matt Holiday

12. David Wright

13. Robinson Cano

14. Josh Hamilton

15. Roy Halladay

Round 2:

16. Alex Rodriguez

17. Chase Utley

18. Mark Teixeira

19. Prince Fielder

20. Joe Mauer

21. Kevin Youkilis

22. Matt Kemp

23. Tim Lincecum

24. Dustin Pedroia

25 Jose Reyes

26. Ryan Zimmerman

27. Ryan Howard

28. Nelson Cruz

29. Felix Hernandez

30. Victor Martinez

Round 3:

31. Andrew McCutchen

32. Jacoby Ellsbury

33. Ian Kinsler

34. Brandon Phillips

35. Shin-Soo Choo

36. Buster Posey

37. Jimmy Rollins

38. Justin Upton

39. Jason Heyward

40. Rickie Weeks

41. Dan Uggla

42. Ichiro Suzuki

43. Adam Wainwright

44. Adam Dunn

45. Brian McCann

Round 4:

46. Alex Rios

47. Jon Lester

48. Cliff Lee

49. CC Sabathia

50. Adrian Beltre

51. Clayton Kershaw

52. Mat Latos

53. Andre Ethier

54. Jayson Werth

55. Justin Morneau

56. Zack Greinke

57. Josh Johnson

58. Kendry Morales

59. Justin Verlander

60. Jose Bautista

Round 5:

61. Cole Hamels

62. Alexei Ramirez

63. Ubaldo Jimenez

64. Tommy Hanson

65. Paul Konerko

66. Mike Stanton

67. Jered Weaver

68. Jay Bruce

69. Francisco Liriano

70. Hunter Pence

71. Dan Haren

72. Carlos Santana

73. Derek Jeter

74. Chris Carpenter

75. Matt Cain

Round 6:

76. Brian Roberts

77. Geovanny Soto

78. Chris Young

79. David Price

80. Elvis Andrus

81. Shane Victorino

82. B.J. Upton

83. Aramis Ramirez

84. Michael Young

85. Yovani Gallardo

86. Roy Oswalt

87. Billy Butler

88. Corey Hart

89. Aaron Hill

90. Stephen Drew

Thoughts?

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Fri Jan 14, 2011 6:20 am

i see all sorts of what i would call "insane" picks in those latest results.

as an owner of stephen drew last year i find it beyond ridiculous that he was drafted in the 6th round. that manager must be mental or i need to really start prepping. 83r, 15hr, 61rbi, 10sbs, and a 278 avg is NOT a 6th rounder.

do i see improvement? sure.. but no way in the fricken 6th round.

jose bautista in the 4th aint much better. can you say regret?

Fourslot40 · Post by **Fourslot40** » Fri Jan 14, 2011 6:24 am

Wow, Cano dropped to 13 on that last one. He's been consistent around 7 and 8.

meanguy · Post by **meanguy** » Fri Jan 14, 2011 8:45 am

The guy who drafted in the #4 spot getting Hanley/Reyes/Youkilis with the 1st 3 picks is genius.. genius I tell you.

oldwolf55 · Post by **oldwolf55** » Fri Jan 14, 2011 12:08 pm

Does anyone know if they plan on hitting Heyward 2nd again or dropping him in the order.

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Fri Jan 14, 2011 12:18 pm

Originally posted by oldwolf55:

Does anyone know if they plan on hitting Heyward 2nd again or dropping him in the order. I read somewhere that they thought he would hit 6th, but that probably depends on McLouth. It's going to be 2nd or 6th to start the season if Chipper is healthy.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Fri Jan 14, 2011 11:50 pm

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

quote:Originally posted by oldwolf55:

Does anyone know if they plan on hitting Heyward 2nd again or dropping him in the order. I read somewhere that they thought he would hit 6th, but that probably depends on McLouth. It's going to be 2nd or 6th to start the season if Chipper is healthy. [/QUOTE]They hope he will hit third eventually, but not as long as "Slipper" is around (pictured here at his team physical)!

I am guessing McLouth, Prado, Slipper, Uggla, McCann, Heyward, Gonzalez, Freeman. However, that could be a waste of Freeman.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 3:23 am

I'm going to be on Sirius Radio today with Kyle and Ray at 5:15 pm ET, so I'll go through our recent Slow Draft results this morning and post some of my findings that I'll discuss during the show. Stay tuned for some cool details that you folks created through the Slow Drafts. I'll post them soon.

Cornhusker · Post by **Cornhusker** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 4:20 am

What sirius channel?

Ando · Post by **Ando** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 4:30 am

XM Channel 147; Sirius Channel 220-something, I believe. I've been listening to these guys on my hour drive home from work a bit more lately with baseball around the corner. Decent show.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 4:38 am

We started five Slow Drafts in early January and thus I'm using that info for some of my analysis. I'll concentrate on the first round for starters:

** It's interesting to note that only 18 different players have been picked in the first round among the 15 different spots. There appears to be a strong consensus with the first 15 players, which can be good or bad. As Ron Shandler has noted in this year's Baseball Forecaster, the 7-year success rate of identifying the Top 15 players is only 37%. That means that of the Top 15 players picked each year since 2004, on average fewer than 6 players finish the season as Top 15 players. So there's a concern that everyone is thinking the same way this year.

** Every single NFBC draft so far has Albert Pujols No. 1. I don't see that trend changing much.

** Miguel Cabrera was No. 2 in four of the five recently completed drafts. Only Troy Tulowitzki topped him and in that draft Miguel went fifth.

** Some of the bigger variations include Carlos Gonzalez going as high as third and as low as ninth; Adrian Gonzalez as high as eighth and as low as 15th; Josh Hamilton as high as 11th and as low as 19th; Roy Halladay as high as 8th and as low as 20th.

Here are the 18 different players selected in the first round and the spot they were drafted:

Albert Pujols: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1

Miguel Cabrera: 5, 2, 2, 2, 2

Troy Tulowitzki: 2, 5, 3, 5, 3

Hanley Ramirez: 4, 3, 4, 6, 4

Carlos Gonzalez: 3, 4, 9, 3, 6

Carl Crawford: 6, 8, 6, 4, 5

Joey Votto: 10, 6, 5, 7, 7

Ryan Braun: 9, 7, 11, 9, 10

Evan Longoria: 7, 11, 10, 11, 8

Adrian Gonzalez: 8, 10, 15, 10, 9

Robinson Cano: 13, 9, 7, 8, 13

David Wright: 14, 13, 14, 14, 12

Alex Rodriguez: 15, 12, 12, 12, 16

Josh Hamilton: 11, 19, 19, 13, 14

Roy Halladay: 12, 20, 8, 16, 15

Chase Utley: 16, 15, 13, 21, 17

Matt Holliday: 23, 20, 16, 15, 11

Mark Teixeira: 14 once

Thoughts?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 5:17 am

The second round seems to be almost as consistent as the first round as owners seem to have locked in on a steady group of players. Twenty-two different players went in the second round, but that included three who mostly went in the first round: Alex Rodriguez (16th once), Josh Hamilton (11, 19, 19, 13, 14) and Roy Halladay (12, 20, 8, 16, 15).

So what we have is 19 players mostly going in these 15 spots. And actually, four of them only went once in the second round so we're down to 15 players for those 15 spots. The four one-timers included Adam Dunn (29th), Shin-Soo Choo (29th), Adam Wainwright (27th) and Victor Martinez (30th).

So let's look at the remaining 15 players and track where they are going:

Chase Utley: 16, 15, 13, 21, 17

Mark Teixeira: 17, 14, 17, 20, 18

Matt Holliday: 23, 16, 20, 15, 11

Ryan Howard: 20, 17, 24, 18, 27

Prince Fielder: 21, 21, 21, 17, 19

Kevin Youkilis: 19, 18, 34, 23, 21

Joe Mauer: 22, 26, 28, 19, 20

Matt Kemp: 26, 22, 23, 22, 22

Dustin Pedroia: 24, 24, 30, 25, 24

Ryan Zimmerman: 25, 23, 22, 24, 26

Tim Lincecum: 27, 29, 18, 27, 23

Jose Reyes: 18, 25, 27, 30, 25

Nelson Cruz: 29, 28, 16, 28, 28

Felix Hernandez: 28, 30, 25, 36, 29

Andrew McCutchen: 30, 32, 26, 26, 31

** Some of the biggest swings include: Jose Reyes as high as 18th and as low as 30th; Kevin Youkilis as high as 18th and as low as 34th; Tim Lincecum as high as 18th and as low as 29th; and Nelson Cruz as high as 16th and as low as 29th.

** I see Andrew McCutchen moving up higher as the off-season goes on and he went 26th and 26th recently.

** You might also see four pitchers go in the first two rounds in some drafts as Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright are all capable of going in the Top 30, certainly the Top 35.

Thoughts? I see trends forming. Will you go against those trends in 2011?

Asumijet · Post by **Asumijet** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 5:24 am

Early on Dec/Jan slow drafts, a lot of the selections are based largely on 2010 results. As spring approaches and targets are identified, we will see a lot more variance in the top picks.

Looking at the 7 sets of draft results posted on the board, there are only 34 different players taken in the top 30 overall. So the trend continues.

Any chance the participants in the slow drafts thus far could get an ADP report?

Lobbyist999 · Post by **Lobbyist999** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 6:31 am

Thanks for posting the first 6 rounds of the slow drafts to date.

Just wondering if it would be possible to post subsequent rounds?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 6:53 am

Originally posted by Random Lobbyist:

Thanks for posting the first 6 rounds of the slow drafts to date.

Just wondering if it would be possible to post subsequent rounds? No, this is what people pay for in the Slow Drafts, so I don't want to give too much away. You'll see all of those later round results once your Slow Draft gets moving!! Good luck and enjoy.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 7:06 am

Greg, you should mix in the results of the league Dan put together right, I mean RIGHT, after the season ended. Sure it would throw things out of whack a bit, but would provide some interesting chatter.