Some NFBC Slow Draft Early Results

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 7:44 am

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

Greg, you should mix in the results of the league Dan put together right, I mean RIGHT, after the season ended. Sure it would throw things out of whack a bit, but would provide some interesting chatter. I'll do the first six rounds of each. Here is one of them (I think this was the first one):

Round 1:

1. Albert Pujols

2. Troy Tulowitzki

3. Hanley Ramirez

4. Carlos Gonzalez

5. Alex Rodriguez

6. Evan Longoria

7. Carl Crawford

8. Ryan Braun

9. Roy Halladay

10. Joey Votto

11. Miguel Cabrera

12. Chase Utley

13. Robinson Cano

14. David Wright

15. Josh Hamilton

Round 2:

16. Matt Holliday

17. Ryan Howard

18. Matt Kemp

19. Ryan Zimmerman

20. Joe Mauer

21. Victor Martinez

22. Tim Lincecum

23. Mark Teixeira

24. CC Sabathia

25. Jose Reyes

26. Prince Fielder

27. Dustin Pedroia

28. Felix Hernandez

29. Andrew McCutchen

30. Adam Wainwright

Round 3:

31. Jose Bautista

32. Adrian Gonzalez

33. Nelson Cruz

34. Justin Upton

35. Jered Weaver

36. Kendry Morales

37. Justin Morneau

38. Buster Posey

39. Vladimir Guerrero

40. Ian Kinsler

41. Jon Lester

42. Kevin Youkilis

43. Shin-Soo Choo

44. Jayson Werth

45. Roy Oswalt

Round 4:

46. Wandy Rodriguez

47. Jacoby Elsbury

48. Adrian Beltre

49. Josh Johnson

50. Alex Rios

51. Jason Heyward

52. Hunter Pence

53. Jimmy Rollins

54. Dan Uggla

55. Ichiro Suzuki

56. Rickie Weeks

57. Brian McCann

58. Chris Young

59. Clayton Kershaw

60. Shane Victorino

Round 5:

61. Ubaldo Jimenez

62. Adam Dunn

63. Carlos Lee

64. Justin Verlander

65. Drew Stubbs

66. Mike Stanton

67. Paul Konerko

68. Aramis Ramirez

69. Angel Pagan

70. David Price

71. Francisco Liriano

72. Derek Jeter

73. Cole Hamels

74. Cory Hart

75. Juan Pierre

Round 6:

76. Brian Wilson

77. Delmon Young

78. Mat Latos

79. B.J. Upton

80. Andre Ethier

81. Billy Butler

82. Michael Young

83. Carlos Marmol

84. Chris Carpenter

85. Matt Cain

86. Alexei Ramirez

87. Joakim Soria

88. Brandon Phillips

89. Jay Bruce

90. Brett Gardner

Thoughts?

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 8:29 am

that is the 1st draft. greg- 19 and cloudy sunday. we are ripping more of the field up today- should have zero turf by sunday. hate to say- and i don't know why no one does it- but i blitz rodgers every down until we knock him out. even if the pack score once or twice. just think he is playing super

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 8:34 am

Originally posted by headhunters:

that is the 1st draft. greg- 19 and cloudy sunday. we are ripping more of the field up today- should have zero turf by sunday. hate to say- and i don't know why no one does it- but i blitz rodgers every down until we knock him out. even if the pack score once or twice. just think he is playing super I think it's time for Soldier Field to get into the 21st century and put in some synthetic turf with better soil. The Packers put in new turf in 2006 and that field was solid for the last two games vs. the Giants and Bears. Let's just move this game up to Lambeau Field so that no players get hurt on that crappy field down there.

Is everyone up for that?

I agree. Both sides must blitz all out and keep the QBs thinking of where it's coming from next. The Bears are great at that and the Packers have really done a nice job of that lately with Woodson and Matthews and even Hawk. That will be the key to Sunday's game, no doubt.

Good luck. Should be a great, historic game.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 9:28 am

Wow Miquel Cabrera at 11 is a stunner.Usally gone in top 5.Every draft will be different i guess.

headhunters · Post by **headhunters** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 11:00 am

dear greg- i am not blitzing to confuse rogers. i want the 1st play to be urlacher picking rogers up and slamming him to the ground and ruining his career with a concusion and torn labrum. i will then hold up a sign- payback for kunz/mcmahon. thanks

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 11:08 am

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qC7NWmGs54s

shouldn't have even been a flag. clean hit

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Wed Jan 19, 2011 12:20 pm

Originally posted by NorCalAtlFan:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qC7NWmGs54s

shouldn't have even been a flag. clean hit

Wow, that was close to tackling him in the huddle.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 2:30 am

I did a quick analysis of Starting Pitchers from the five latest Slow Drafts and came away surprised by the early numbers. In each draft, between 22 and 24 starters were chosen by the end of the sixth round, or 22-24 out of the first 120 picks. As many as four starters went in the first 34 picks and overall SPs are going sooner than at any time since the NFBC was started in 2004. This is definitely a trend that was precipitated by last year's strong pitching numbers.

But more surprising is the fact that of the Top 23 pitchers taken by the end of Round 6 in these five different drafts only 24 different pitchers were selected. In other words, owners didn't see any breakout starters from the next tier of starters. The top block of SPs seems to be defined, at least early on.

Here's a few early facts on SPs:

** Roy Halladay was the top pitcher selected in every draft so far, followed by Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez and Adam Wainwright.

** Max Scherzer jumped into the Top 23 twice (21st and 22nd), but otherwise the 23 SPs were clearly defined.

** Zack Greinke seems to have benefited the most this off-season with his move to Milwaukee as he has moved up to the 11th spot among SPs so far. Chris Carpenter seems to be falling for some reason with his range going from 13th among SPs to 23rd.

Here's a look at the Top 23 SPs and where they've been drafted so far:

Roy Halladay: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1

Tim Lincecum: 2, 3, 2, 2, 2

Felix Hernandez: 3, 4, 3, 4, 3

Adam Wainwright: 4, 2, 5, 3, 4

Cliff Lee: 5, 6, 4, 5, 6

Jon Lester: 6, 7, 7, 7, 5

CC Sabathia: 7, 5, 6, 9, 7

Clayton Kershaw: 9, 9, 9, 8, 8

Justin Verlander: 8, 10, 10, 10, 12

Zack Greinke: 11, 14, 11, 12, 10

Ubaldo Jimenez: 12, 12, 8, 13, 14

Josh Johnson: 14, 13, 13, 11, 11

Cole Hamels: 10, 15, 12, 16, 13

Jered Weaver: 15, 16, 16, 16, 16

Dan Haren: 18, 8, 17, 15, 18

David Price: 19, 11, 15, 18, 21

Chris Carpenter: 13, 23, 19, 21, 19

Matt Cain: 16, 22, 20, 17, 20

Francisco Liriano: 17, 21, 14, 23, 17

Mat Latos: 20, 17, 23, 19, 9

Yovanni Gallardo: 21, 18, 22, 24, 22

Tommy Hanson: 22, 20, 18, 14, 15

Roy Oswalt: 23, 19, 25, 20, 23

Thoughts? Why aren't more SPs breaking into this group?

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 2:36 am

The most interesting thing I've learned so far from doing this analysis is that this season is no different from any other year as far as folks seemingly getting in line with their pre-season predictions. I know that sounds obvious, but at the end of last season we all said how wild this year was going to be and how even the first round was going to be a crapshoot. I really thought we'd see 20-25 different players showing up in the first round, but as you can see certain players are being established for certain areas of the draft and few owners are deviating from that.

A lot can obviously change between now and Draft Day and I'm sure some owners are trying to see how their teams can be built with certain stars. But early on at least, it looks like most owners are lock-step in line with each other. We'll see how the rest of the off-season goes.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 4:44 am

Okay, I've finally found a position with some uncertainty among early NFBC drafters. And not surprisingly it's the most unpredictable position in fantasy baseball: Closers.

A look at the early drafts is showing uncertainty from top to bottom. Four different releivers have been picked as the top closer in our five most recent Slow Drafts. That hasn't happened at any other position so far. And each of those top guys could go first or fourth or even seventh. It's crazy.

There is a pretty strong consensus among the Top 23 closers with only 27 different players being selected among those spots. One of them was Rafael Soriano, who went 12th, 17th, 14th and 13th before signing last week with the Yankees as a setup man. In the one draft that didn't get to him when the announcement was made, he still hasn't been drafted. That shows you his value now in his new role.

The highest a closer has been taken so far is 117th overall. Carlos Marmol went that high in one draft, while Heath Bell went 120th as the top closer and Brian Wilson went 122nd twice as the top closer. Neftali Feliz also went first among closers once, going 123rd overall. So it looks like owners are waiting until the seventh round to jump in on saves.

Okay, let's get to the players and the numbers. Here's where each closer has been drafted in the five recently started Slow Drafts:

Heath Bell: 1, 2, 6, 5, 7

Brian Wilson: 4, 3, 3, 1, 1

Carlos Marmol: 5, 1, 2, 2, 3

Joakim Soria: 2, 4, 7, 3, 6

Mariano Rivera: 3, 5, 5, 8, 2

Neftali Feliz: 6, 7, 1, 4, 5

Jonathan Papelbon: 7, 6, 4, 7, 8

Jonathan Broxton: 8, 10, 11, 9, 11

Andrew Bailey: 9, 9, 8, 11, 4

Francisco Rodriguez: 10, 15, 12, 10, 9

Jose Valverde: 11, 13, 16, 13, 18

Huston Street: 12, 11, 9, 16, 15

Jon Axford: 13, 8, 10, 6, 12

Chris Perez: 14, 14, 13, 12, 10

Brad Lidge: 15, 19, 20, 17, 20

Joe Nathan: 16, 21, 19, 18, 14

J.J. Putz: 17, 18, 14, 15, 17

Drew Storen: 18, 17, 23, 19, 24

Francisco Cordero: 19, 27, 18, 20, 16

Ryan Franklin: 20, 22, 22, 22, 23

Brad Lyon: 21, 25, 26, 21, 19

Craig Kimbrel: 22, 16, 15, 21, 21

Matt Thornton: 23, 20, 21, 23, 26

Others going in the Top 25:

Joel Hanrahan: 24,24, 22

Rafael Soriano: 12, 17, 14, 13

Kevin Gregg: 23, 25, 25

Leo Nunez: 24

Thoughts?

[ January 20, 2011, 11:15 AM: Message edited by: Greg Ambrosius ]

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 5:06 am

I think I better research who Carlos Perez is

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Thu Jan 20, 2011 5:16 am

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

I think I better research who Carlos Perez is My bad. Duly corrected!!