Adrian Gonzalez Rising In The NFBC

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 3:47 am

I will have a regular baseball column on Fanball's Owner's Edge pages each week and I kicked it off this week with a look at the rising value of Adrian Gonzalez. This column is only for OE subscribers, but I figured our NFBC folks would enjoy it as well. Let me know what you think:

As we turn the calendar to 2011, it's time to turn from fantasy football to fantasy baseball. The wild and crazy fantasy football season is in the books, and fantasy baseball promises the same enjoyment and craziness in this upcoming season.

Some of that craziness is already taking place thanks to a wild offseason of trades and signings. The Boston Red Sox have added enough pieces to be the early favorite for 2011, and one of those moves has affected fantasy drafts all over the country. Yo Adrian, do you hear me?

No player has moved up higher on draft boards this offseason than first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Since that early December trade from the Padres to the Red Sox, Gonzalez has been the hottest player in fantasy baseball. He has moved from an early third-round pick to possibly a late first-round selection, all because he's moving his home location from PETCO Park to Fenway Park.

That relocation has fantasy owners salivating over Gonzalez and rightly so. Before the trade, he went 29th and 27th overall in two NFBC pay leagues. Once the trade was completed, Gonzalez was picked 11th overall, 14th, 16th, 18th and 20th. The NFBC runs 15-team league formats, so he went from a late second-rounder to a late first-rounder in our contest, all because of his move from PETCO to Fenway.

That may sound like a lofty rise for someone who had offseason shoulder surgery and won't be able to swing a bat until early March, at the earliest. He has done nothing physically this winter to warrant this lofty status, but when you look closer at the numbers, you'll see why this move could pay off big for Gonzalez. In fact, he could be a BARGAIN even late in the first round.

PETCO Park is hands-down the toughest hitter's park in Major League Baseball. Over the last three years, teams have combined to hit .234 there with only 388 home runs. In comparison, teams have combined to batt .270 with 502 home runs at Fenway Park since 2008. Going one step further, Coors Field yielded a .278 average and 533 home runs since 2008 and U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago yielded a .260 combined average and 608 home runs. They put PETCO Park to shame.

Gonzalez has played the last five seasons in San Diego, and he has been a Top 40 fantasy player each of the last four seasons despite home/away splits that would affect any player. The numbers are so consistently bad for Gonzalez at home that any improvement at all will vault the first baseman into superstar status. And that is what current fantasy owners are thinking as they grab him earlier and earlier with each NFBC draft.

Since 2007, Gonzalez has hit .259 at PETCO Park while averaging 12 homers, 41 RBI, 39 runs, and a .435 slugging percentage. On the road since 2007, Gonzalez has averaged .306 with 23 homers, 64 RBI, 56 runs, and a .592 slugging percentage. Hitting at Fenway Park with the short right field porch and the Green Monster in left field, you'd have to think that Gonzalez will easily better those home splits, and if he maintains his road splits, he could finish with 40+ homers, 100+ RBI, and 100+ runs.

Gonzalez has hit 20 or more home runs on the road in each of the last four seasons, leading the NL in road homers in 2008 and 2009. In 2009, he hit 40 homers overall, with only 12 of those coming in 80 games at home. He hit 28 homers on the road that year. In fact, his home/road splits were the most drastic in 2009. Check out the splits over the last five seasons at PETCO:

Year Average HR RBI Runs Slug

2010 home .279 11 42 41 .438

2010 away .315 20 59 46 .578

2009 home .244 12 36 31 .446

2009 away .306 28 63 59 .643

2008 home .247 14 49 40 .433

2008 away .308 22 70 63 .578

2007 home .266 10 36 44 .424

2007 away .295 20 64 57 .570

2006 home .296 10 38 29 .471

2006 away .311 14 44 54 .527

Fantasy owners are right to expect home splits equal or greater to his road splits in 2011. Fenway Park will make that happen for Gonzalez because it's an ideal park for this disciplined left-handed hitter. My biggest concerns are the shoulder injury and a return to the AL after a five-year absence. He can't start hitting until early March, and even though everyone feels it was a minor procedure to prevent his shoulder from locking up again, it's serious enough to prevent the Red Sox from signing him to a long-term contract. He's also unfamiliar with most of the pitchers in the AL, but he should overcome that quickly and in this powerful lineup he should get plenty of run-scoring opportunities that he didn't have in San Diego.

I think the injury is a slight concern, but there's no way Theo Epstein makes this trade if he felt it would hamper Gonzalez in 2011. He's going ALL IN for 2011, and Gonzalez is a big part of his plans. I can see Gonzalez being ready by Opening Day and winning the AL home run title. There's a good reason for his quick rise up the fantasy charts this last month, and I don't see it stopping anytime soon. By late March, Gonzalez could be going in the first round of every draft in the country, including yours.

(Greg Ambrosius is the director of Fanball's National Fantasy Baseball Championship. Go to nfbc.fanball.com for more details on their live drafts that award a $100,000 grand prize, along with all of their online leagues. Contact Greg at [email protected] for more details.)

Rainiers · Post by **Rainiers** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 9:32 am

Nice article, Greg.

His 2009 numbers were amazing, and he posted his 2010 numbers playing most of the year with a hurt shoulder, which hopefully will be repaired by his recent surgery.

The park conditions in Fenway may become even more favorable for hitters in 2011 because the Red Sox are looking to bring the right field fences in by 10 feet in order to increase the size of the bullpens.

By the time we draft in the Classic in late March, we will know all about Adrian's recovery. If he is healthy, not only is he a first-round pick for me, but also a top-5 pick overall; following only Pujols among first baseman.

The Franchise · Post by **The Franchise** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 9:36 am

SSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 9:58 am

Originally posted by The Franchise:

SSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

Sorry, even before this story was posted his stock rose again. Wait until you see where he went in the Slow Drafts that started yesterday. Stay tuned.

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 10:20 am

Don't get me wrong because I love this move for the Red Sox for the next 8 years but I'm a little concerned about the shoulder surgery for 2011. I think he'll put up good numbers but maybe not great numbers. He had a major surgery which typically saps power for at least a year. I'd still take him in the 25-30 range but 1st round is too risky for me. We're talking about someone who can't swing a bat until at least March 1. There are too many options in Rd 1.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 10:31 am

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Don't get me wrong because I love this move for the Red Sox for the next 8 years but I'm a little concerned about the shoulder surgery for 2011. I think he'll put up good numbers but maybe not great numbers. He had a major surgery which typically saps power for at least a year. I'd still take him in the 25-30 range but 1st round is too risky for me. We're talking about someone who can't swing a bat until at least March 1. There are too many options in Rd 1. With that, you would be all over him in round 2!

Rainiers · Post by **Rainiers** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 11:10 am

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Don't get me wrong because I love this move for the Red Sox for the next 8 years but I'm a little concerned about the shoulder surgery for 2011. I think he'll put up good numbers but maybe not great numbers. He had a major surgery which typically saps power for at least a year. I'd still take him in the 25-30 range but 1st round is too risky for me. We're talking about someone who can't swing a bat until at least March 1. There are too many options in Rd 1. You probably have a better perch to observe the Red Sox than I do. From out here, it looks like the Bosox gave up a lot of talent to have the rights to Gonzalez for next year, and at this point, for next year only. To me, that means that after the physicals the Red Sox gave him, they thought his chances for a good year next year were pretty high. Of course, if he wasn't recovering well, they would not have to eat a long term extension and thereby limit their losses.

But I'm guessing you have more specific information about his surgery/recovery or the extension that I'm not privy to. Care to share the source?

[ January 04, 2011, 05:20 PM: Message edited by: Rainiers ]

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:26 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Don't get me wrong because I love this move for the Red Sox for the next 8 years but I'm a little concerned about the shoulder surgery for 2011. I think he'll put up good numbers but maybe not great numbers. He had a major surgery which typically saps power for at least a year. I'd still take him in the 25-30 range but 1st round is too risky for me. We're talking about someone who can't swing a bat until at least March 1. There are too many options in Rd 1. With that, you would be all over him in round 2! [/QUOTE]I would be all over him at the 25-30 range and not 10-15. For me to take him 10-15 I would hope for .285 100 40 120. I just see the HR's closer to 30 which knocks him down 10-20 picks for me.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:29 pm

Assuming health is fine, if you take his PETCO numbers and park adjust as if they were in Fenway, the results are Pujols-esque.

Red Sox Nation · Post by **Red Sox Nation** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:33 pm

Originally posted by Rainiers:

quote:Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Don't get me wrong because I love this move for the Red Sox for the next 8 years but I'm a little concerned about the shoulder surgery for 2011. I think he'll put up good numbers but maybe not great numbers. He had a major surgery which typically saps power for at least a year. I'd still take him in the 25-30 range but 1st round is too risky for me. We're talking about someone who can't swing a bat until at least March 1. There are too many options in Rd 1. You probably have a better perch to observe the Red Sox than I do. From out here, it looks like the Bosox gave up a lot of talent to have the rights to Gonzalez for next year, and at this point, for next year only. To me, that means that after the physicals the Red Sox gave him, they thought his chances for a good year next year were pretty high. Of course, if he wasn't recovering well, they would not have to eat a long term extension and thereby limit their losses.

But I'm guessing you have more specific information about his surgery/recovery or the extension that I'm not privy to. Care to share the source? [/QUOTE]The contract extension is a lock to happen after opening day. It's all about lowering their salary for luxury tax purposes in 2011. I'm not privy to any special information. It's as simple as a guy just had labrum surgery on his shoulder. From what I've read it takes 12 months to regain full power. He's not going to be a Judy in 2011 but I don't think the 40 plus HR's are coming either. I'm sure Rick Wilton will discuss this injury in the future.

[ January 04, 2011, 06:34 PM: Message edited by: Red Sox Nation ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:34 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Assuming health is fine, if you take his PETCO numbers and park adjust as if they were in Fenway, the results are Pujols-esque. Does anybody really want to be 'Pujols-esque'?

I'd rather be called Albert- like

[ January 04, 2011, 06:41 PM: Message edited by: DOUGHBOYS ]

Rainiers · Post by **Rainiers** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 12:58 pm

Thank you, Red Sox Nation

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 1:38 pm

And where do you think Adrian went tonight in the Shawn Childs league? Top 20? First round? Top 10? Inquiring minds want to know.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 2:07 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

And where do you think Adrian went tonight in the Shawn Childs league? Top 20? First round? Top 10? Inquiring minds want to know.

I bet he didn't make it past pick 14!

The Franchise · Post by **The Franchise** » Tue Jan 04, 2011 6:08 pm

Pick 10......At 13 I thought I had a chance.

wallimooner · Post by **wallimooner** » Wed Jan 05, 2011 9:37 am

Originally posted by Rainiers:

[QUOTE]From out here, it looks like the Bosox gave up a lot of talent to have the rights to GonzalezI'm just surprised the Sox gave up on a guy named "Casey Kelly" - what a perfect name for a Boston star. I guess it was quid quo pro for prying a San Diego native named Gonzalez out of Latino California.....

swampass · Post by **swampass** » Wed Jan 05, 2011 10:43 am

Originally posted by wallimooner:

quote:Originally posted by Rainiers:

[QUOTE]From out here, it looks like the Bosox gave up a lot of talent to have the rights to GonzalezI'm just surprised the Sox gave up on a guy named "Casey Kelly" - what a perfect name for a Boston star. I guess it was quid quo pro for prying a San Diego native named Gonzalez out of Latino California..... [/QUOTE]trading 3 prospects at the AA level for an All Star slugger in his prime seems like a steal for me. sure kelly, rizzo, and r fuentes have some real skill, but how many times does AA/A skill translate into anything more than an average AAA player. the sox could never decide or couldnt make kelly choose between SS and pitcher.. wonder if that has changed. and players like rizzo and fuentes would have struggled to get to the majors anytime soon as the sox have a few pretty good players in front of them...

it could end up hurting like losing bagwell when he was behind 3 good players but it also could be like stealing pedro from the expos for tony armas, pavano? or brian rose..cant remember. but it was a fricken STEAL!

i think this will be the same, a major steal.. although all this shoulder talk is making me nervous. but cant fathom theo and company even consider this deal if that shoulder wasnt going to be %100.

GO SOX!!

sephrath · Post by **sephrath** » Wed Jan 05, 2011 12:32 pm

Can't really use teams willingness to sign players or trade for them as a indication of how healthy they are.... Jake Peavy? John Lackey last year had shoulder issues before he signed with the sox.

I think theo was willing to part with some of his top prospects (though really not that special a package) for Gonzalez more because he felt he could lock him up for 7 more years, and that with Gonzalez and crawford he would have secured two key pieces in his order long term. I think 2011 is not the only reason the sox traded for agon, in fact if that was all they would get from him, they probably dont do the trade.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Thu Jan 06, 2011 4:21 am

A Gonzalez went at number 10 in a pre-season slow draft 15 team league I just finished drafting in. This draft started in mid December and is populated with some serious NFBC talent. So if you put 15 NFBC players at a table, the odds that Gonzo makes it out of Round 1 (or even to the first turn) are very, very low at this point I think. Guys can try and knock his value down but only an injury setback in ST is bringing him back to Rd 2.

I think the flip side of this discussion is who is sliding OUT of the 1st Round. In the same draft I chose in the 4th slot. After passing on MCab and Votto I was able to land P Fielder coming back at 27. Fielder seems to be the player whose value drop seems linked to A Gonzo's rise.