Look at all these people on the boards!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:23 am

When it comes to Shandler and the NFBC, as intimated by you, he is like an Ivy league graduate on the streets. The different way of life was tough for him...

JamesH · Post by **JamesH** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:31 am

Hey FFBL and Mr. Cleavenger. I'm a Kentuckian as well. Unfortunately for me (this year), my blood is red instead of blue.

JohnP · Post by **JohnP** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:36 am

Originally posted by JamesH:

Hey FFBL and Mr. Cleavenger. I'm a Kentuckian as well. Unfortunately for me (this year), my blood is red instead of blue. You guys are all probably related.

JamesH · Post by **JamesH** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 2:42 am

Originally posted by JohnP:

quote:Originally posted by JamesH:

Hey FFBL and Mr. Cleavenger. I'm a Kentuckian as well. Unfortunately for me (this year), my blood is red instead of blue. You guys are all probably related. [/QUOTE]To think there are thousands of comedians out of work. Actually you just gave me a chuckle.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 3:05 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

I was in a hurry....Phrased differently, do you regard Greinke as an ace before the season or does he have to earn the title? That Greinke trade was MASTERFUL, Dan. Did you see Greinke's face at the press conference in Milwaukee when they introduced him? He looked like a kid showing up for the first practice of Little League. He's excited to play in Milwaukee and he knows he's got a chance to win it all.

Yes, he's going to be a great ace, a great innings eater on a staff that hasn't had one since Vukovich. Gallardo now becomes a very good No. 2 and I like his value now at that spot. Marcum is 29 and a solid No. 3. The Brewers haven't had two good starters under 30 for a long, long time.

This isn't a great rotation, but it has a chance to be pretty good. And I think Greinke is going to have a great season and they will find a way to keep him long-term after Fielder bolts.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 3:08 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

My concern would be his make up.

He's not a grinder in any sense of the word and not a leader either.

He marches to the beat of a distant drum.

Talented for sure, if he likes his situation, the make up may follow. With Braun and Fielder in the clubhouse, they don't need Greinke to do anything except dominate a game once every five days!! He doesn't have to be the rah-rah guy for this team. They have a team that has been together through the minors and majors, for the most part, and he's the main ingredient to get them to the playoffs again.

He will fit in with this team, I strongly believe.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 3:16 am

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

quote:Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

My concern would be his make up.

He's not a grinder in any sense of the word and not a leader either.

He marches to the beat of a distant drum.

Talented for sure, if he likes his situation, the make up may follow. With Braun and Fielder in the clubhouse, they don't need Greinke to do anything except dominate a game once every five days!! He doesn't have to be the rah-rah guy for this team. They have a team that has been together through the minors and majors, for the most part, and he's the main ingredient to get them to the playoffs again.

He will fit in with this team, I strongly believe. [/QUOTE]Ding Ding Ding... Nailed it!

Greinke is only expected to pitch in Milwaukee. I don't think they need him to help shape any young arms everyday and like Greg said with Prince and Braun in the Club House, he doesn't even need to talk!

Marcum is the guy who could really benefit from this trade. He can now fly under the radar as the #3 and could end the season with more wins than both Gallardo and Greinke.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 3:25 am

Originally posted by JohnP:

quote:Originally posted by JamesH:

Hey FFBL and Mr. Cleavenger. I'm a Kentuckian as well. Unfortunately for me (this year), my blood is red instead of blue. You guys are all probably related. [/QUOTE]seeing how we are all west of Winchester, it's safe to say we're not related. If we all were east of Winchester, all bets are off....

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 3:35 am

Originally posted by JamesH:

Hey FFBL and Mr. Cleavenger. I'm a Kentuckian as well. Unfortunately for me (this year), my blood is red instead of blue. yeah, saw some of that red blood Dec. 31st...

just had to get that in...

BTW, one of the finest arenas in the USofA

LONG GONE · Post by **LONG GONE** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 3:53 am

Teddy Higuera would be the last true ace.

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 3:57 am

Milwaukee hasn't had an ace since Warren Spahn..

JamesH · Post by **JamesH** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 3:59 am

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

quote:Originally posted by JamesH:

Hey FFBL and Mr. Cleavenger. I'm a Kentuckian as well. Unfortunately for me (this year), my blood is red instead of blue. yeah, saw some of that red blood Dec. 31st...

just had to get that in...

BTW, one of the finest arenas in the USofA [/QUOTE]It's very nice. I'm glad its finally finished because I work directly across from it. It was a mess for two years and my main route to the highway to get home was closed.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 4:06 am

Great stuff last night Shawn - I'm glad I was on and read it last night- sad that I didn't think to copy and paste it to word

I think you hit most if not all of the "potholes" hit by the HQ crew last year. In all fairness, they are the same traps that all of all have fallen into at one time or another, they just seemed to hit multiple tripwires and we all know what happens then.

I think you are spot on when discussing the HQ teams approach (or lack thereof) to the FAAB market. It started with the "Hank Blalock" incident - where they spent $258 on what they thought would be a difference maker for their team. They misread the market and real value of the player in question and never really recovered.

Ron did give a pretty honest assessment of their failure at HQ near season's end, but he also sounded annoyed and bitter about not being able to effectively compete in this system. He wrote " We are lured into believing that winners are those most skillful at evaluating baseball performance. Ha! That's not true anymore. Today, winners are those most skillful at games-of-chance. Snake drafting? Sure! But look at the FAAB process too. FAAB-ing is all about gaming everyone else's budget. It has virtually nothing to do with baseball knowledge. "

At first glance it seems like a shot across the bough of the successful high stakes players found here. It also sounds a little like the old time poker pros who openly complain about the explosion of younger players in Poker who just don't play the way they do. Yeah, it takes a lot more luck to win that championship as well these days. But are those people who grabbed Bautista last year just lucky? Sure most if not all would admit that the got more than they bargained for. If anyone thought he was going to be that good, guys would have spent their entire budgets to get him. But those who did bid on him still identified him as a player with a role and with upside. Shandler can dismiss them as "lucky" if he likes, I guess.

As some recall I ran a SAT league with 11 first time NFBC players last year. Ken Magner dominated that league,(yes a "Lucky Bautista owner) took hold of that league by May and led the rest of the way.Of all the discussions we had for that league, we spent more time talking about FAAB than about any other aspect of the game. The first thing I did was ask Shawn for permission to link to one of his articles on FAAB bidding. Once the draft was in the books, FAAB and roster management will decide who wins and loses. But even after all the discussion and advice, the fact remains that there is a learning curve when it comes to the FAAB system that the NFBC uses. Our new players all made the same rookie mistakes over and over. I was shocked by the frustration of some and how much money went unspent in this league by seasons end.

Ron and the HQ team reminded me of my good bud, who I got to play last year. He was stymied by the FAAB system. He simply never got the hang of it. He also couldn't adjust to the shallower free agent market or the fact that he couldn't trade his way out of mistakes. He simply hated not being able to make trades.

This to me is one of the things that "experts" like Mr. Shandler and others are talking about when they refer to their "baseball" knowledge. There is no "Vickery" safety net, no zero dollar bids here. If you blow your cash too early - tough luck. If you hold it too long, same story.

In the NFBC, there is no opportunity to "swindle" your way up the standings, I can't remember how many times I've read some "expert" recapping his championship season by recounting all the great trades they made during the season.

I guess they would argue that that is a "skill" as much as we would argue that understanding draft dynamics and the FA system here are.

Mr Shandler ended his assessment by admitting he wasn't sure what his future approach to the NFBC would be. He kind of hints that he believes it to be a flawed competition and says he has another new concept up his sleeve. I will be interested to see what he comes up with, but I also hope that Mr. Shandler gives the NFBC another chance. This time whoever represents HQ will at the very least have a better understanding of what lies ahead.

[ January 07, 2011, 10:14 AM: Message edited by: Ryan C ]

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 4:11 am

Originally posted by LONG GONE:

Teddy Higuera would be the last true ace. Leave it to Kelly, excellent.

Did your phone give out yesterday?

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 4:18 am

So true Ryan. FAAB is not gaming a budget. It is the evaluation of a player first and then evaluating how league mates perceive that same player.

Shandler hasn't gotten the game within the game, instead, he chooses to criticize it. When he sits down and starts analysing what he could have done different, instead of mocking the system, he will have taken the first step to being a better NFBC player.

Until then, he'll walla near the bottom of the standings

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 4:19 am

wallow, I meant wallow...

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 4:54 am

Ryan-

His lack of success was more of a result of his draft.

I'm sure he can play. It's just if he wants to play and does he want to figure out how to win in this environment.

For the rest us, we have a feel for the game and understand what it takes to win. It doesn't guarantee success, but it makes us want to get better. We want to draft better. We want build our team better. We want to evaluate players better. Hell we won't to know our competition better.

I kind of think of it this way. I used to play in a pool league. I could play, but I was far from being a great shooter. When I was matched up against someone I didn't know, I had to make a quick evaluation of their skill set. I had decide if I missed a shot would they run out on me. I knew my skill level. If they could play, I would approach the game differently. I would play a more defensive style. If I was the better player, I feel wheel and I would have no fear my opponent would run the table.

In way fantasy baseball is like that. When you sit at the draft table, you need to get a feel for your opponent's style or talent level. Are they a wise guy? Do they overlap my style? If you view them as "rookie", what is the likely hood of them jumping a young talented player that makes your team if you get them. If a player makes a poor selection, it doesn't mean he won't get the next three right. It's all about understanding what's going on and what you want to accomplish as the draft table. We all screw up. To be a better player, you need to minimize the mistakes. I think Shandler misses this part of game. We don't want to be told what to do. We want to get better at making better decisions at the draft.

Everyone's goal should be to win the draft at the draft table. It's won't happen that often, but it can happen. A better player has room for error because their team should have enough to compliment it through free agency.

While some players are preparing to win the league, there are others that preparing to win the overall. I think that is a place we should all inspire to.

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:09 am

I don't disagree with your take on the draft at all. I think your analysis of their mistakes there was spot on and I had nothing to add there.

Shandler himself openly admitted to hitting only 8 of 30 picks for a profit. Basically admitting that they failed at the draft table. Still - a bad draft alone shouldn't have doomed them to a 13/14th place finish in their league.

My comments of their FAAB approach was more a comment of his own post-mortem "excuse" for what they dubbed the "NFBC Debacle".

Thunder · Post by **Thunder** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:14 am

in a nutshell, and with all due respect to any and all concerned, aren't you simply saying that just because someone has the ability to evaluate players, that doesn't necessarily make them a "fantasy player".

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:21 am

I am not saying that at all. It is clear that Mr. Shandler and many of the other industry experts who play here (and have success) are quality fantasy players.

I was more responding to this particular experts take on the competition here.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:24 am

Shawn, there are almost 100 folks here.

Amaze them, post it again, if even one says that it is not one of the best fantasy analysis that they've read, I won't post for 24 hours...

Time, of which will be of my choice

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:27 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Shawn, there are almost 100 folks here.

Amaze them, post it again, if even one says that it is not one of the best fantasy analysis that they've read, I won't post for 24 hours...

Time, of which will be of my choice

OK, I'll post it, but I won't leave it up.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:28 am

Good enough

Tax Man · Post by **Tax Man** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:36 am

I dont agree with the Shandler assessment at all. As the guy who won that league and led for the last 3+ months (except for the last day when Chico's tied me) he was way behind because his draft was bad - players he drafted didnt pan out or got injured. This was his draft

Round Pick Player Pos Team

1 3 Ryan Braun OF Baseball HQ

2 28 Dustin Pedroia 2B Baseball HQ

3 33 Pablo Sandoval 3B Baseball HQ

4 58 Ben Zobrist OF Baseball HQ

5 63 Bobby Abreu OF Baseball HQ

6 88 Jason Bartlett SS Baseball HQ

7 93 Wandy Rodriguez P Baseball HQ

8 118 Heath Bell P Baseball HQ

9 123 Geovany Soto C Baseball HQ

10 127 Brett Anderson P Baseball HQ

11 127 Chris Davis 1B Baseball HQ

12 127 Johnny Damon OF Baseball HQ

13 127 Martin Prado 2B Baseball HQ

14 127 Aaron Harang P Baseball HQ

15 127 Carlos Ruiz C Baseball HQ

16 127 Stephen Strasburg P Baseball HQ

17 127 Scott Podsednik OF Baseball HQ

18 127 Brandon Wood 3B Baseball HQ

19 127 Matt Lindstrom P Baseball HQ

20 127 Ian Kennedy P Baseball HQ

21 127 Kerry Wood P Baseball HQ

22 127 Rick VandenHurk P Baseball HQ

23 127 Nate Schierholtz OF Baseball HQ

24 127 Andy Sonnanstine P Baseball HQ

25 127 Kris Medlen P Baseball HQ

26 127 Scott Feldman P Baseball HQ

27 127 Fernando Rodney P Baseball HQ

28 127 Travis Hafner DH Baseball HQ

29 127 Doug Davis P Baseball HQ

30 127 Carlos Carrasco P Baseball HQ

It had nothing to do with gaming FAAB. The best I did in FAAB was Cahil in mid-may. Then Lyon in Aug and Braden and Cecil. The only game changer was Cahil. I wasted a ton of $ chasing saves. Theres no way I won by gaming FAAB.

If you are lucky enough to have a strong draft and few injuries you may not have to rely on FAAB. Conversely, if you wind up with injuries and players you draft high not performing then FAAB will not save your season.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Fri Jan 07, 2011 5:41 am

[ January 07, 2011, 03:14 PM: Message edited by: CC's Desperados ]