Live Chat With Shawn Childs Tuesday, Feb. 15th, 7 PM ET

[Joe Sambito]

Shawn,



How do you see the 3b battle on the South-side of Chicago playing out? Morel, Vicideo, or Teahen, who is your horse?

[Quahogs]

You have an idea who the top 15 SP's(drafted) are. Which two would have to slide out of the top 20 before you'd consider drafting ?



[ February 15, 2011, 01:22 PM: Message edited by: Quahogs ]

[Ryan C]

Hey Shawn - thanks for taking the time to answer our questions. Here's a couple - answer the ones you like and disregard the rest



1.) What is the biggest adjustment you see in approaching the player pool when drafting a 12 team DP squad after months of 15 team prep?



2.) If you had to choose to wait on one of the following positions (1B, 3B, 2B or SS) this year and take a player outside the Top 10 which position would it be and why?



3.) We are all trying to figure out who will be this year's breakout SP's. Do you have a set of criteria or stats that you use going into the season that gives you a starting point to narrow down this year's contenders?

[southpaw23]

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

Don't forget to tune in tonight at 7 pm ET for the Shawn Childs Live Chat. I think our man is preparing some of his answers now, so the first 30 minutes should be action packed. I don't think the love scenes come until the second hour!! But tune in because this should be a fun time and I have a feeling you'll have plenty of time to ask questions on the spot. Enjoy all.



Pitchers and catchers report today for most MLB teams. That's the official kickoff for MLB teams; a Shawn Childs Live Chat is the NFBC's official kickoff as well. As a newb here, I have no idea where these live chats are...is there a link here on the site for this chat?

[Ryan C]

It's right here in this thread. It's a message board chat - not a chat app, which is what you are thinking. Post a question to get an answer - then tune in tonight to see the answers and watch this thread grow to epic proportions.

[Walla Walla]

Southpaw please signup for the hot tub league.

Please!!!!!!

[Hells Satans]

Assuming you are shut out of Tulo and Hanely, where would you feel comfortable taking Jose Reyes?

[southpaw23]

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

Southpaw please signup for the hot tub league.

Please!!!!!! I'm easy money, that's for sure...

[The Mighty Men]

Who is the ONE player that you think is the toughest fantasy baseball player to compete against? You know, the one guy you see in your main event league and say "oh crap".

[swampass]

Is morneau gold going as late as he is? or is it a trap due to concussions? the same for bay?



thoughts on the left side of the baltimore infield bouncing back? have to think the camden confines help hardy and reynolds... true?



i dont feel as though there a lot of "sure things" in the closer ranks because of age, ability, or the possibility of trades. who are some under the radar closers to look at?



thanks for your time... go baseball!

[Riverdome]

In a 45 round no FAAB league what do you think a good roster breakdown would be between hitters, SP, and RP?

[Hells Satans]

Should I be worried about Dan Haren's reduced K rate/increased BB rate after the trade to ANA in light of the fact that the lower K rate is consistent with his Oak days?

[Bo's Bombers]

What kind of breakdown do strive to get in your first ten picks between sp, rp, and position players

[B&B]

1. With the PED crackdown taking down offensive numbers, is pitching becoming more valuable or do you stick with 3 bats/legs with your first 3 rounds?



2. What is your strategy rounds 45-50 in a slow draft?



3. Any free websites that you use for prospect research?



Looking forward to your response. Thanks!

[Catch]

Hi Shawn,



Who is your early favorite?

Uncle Mo

To Honor and Serve

Dialed In

The Factor



Also, are you on the guest list for breakfast @ Imperial Palace before the draft?

[Red Sox Nation]

Shawn,



Do you treat players in a contract year any differently? Some have positive results in a contract drive (Beltre twice) and others have been impacted negatively. Your thoughts? Thanks



Jason

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by ALL-IN JD:

Who is this Shawn Childs cat? He’s a veteran player that has lost a step. He has trouble with the fastball anywhere near the plate. He has an attraction to fast women with a little pop. He very rarely with be seen with Miss Judy in the first half of the month. He’s a sucker for an elite catcher or middle infielder. He’s been last seen trying to make a fantasy living at VuFantasyBaseball.com. He’s steadily under the influence of a Hurricane.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Kentucky Reign:

Start you off easy Shawn



What's the basis of your team name "CC's Desperados"? I’m from Cape Cod – thus the CC – I lacked direction in life with no real plan something like a drifter in the Wild West.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Quahogs:

If I recall correctly while looking at your category targets it seems like you're taking into account a bump in offense for 2011. Do have any underlying fundamentals that support this or is it a gut feel? I’d rather aim high. I know last year I thought some of my pitching staffs were ok when they had ERA’s in the 3.80 area early in the year. I was willing to add a poor double starter to chase wins and K’s when in reality I should have been protecting ERA and whip. Every year the game will change. There was great pitching last year. If it repeats this season, the offense will be down again. I think there are a lot of young players on the offensive side of the ball with some upside. Is the offense down because of the lack of steroids? I’m not sure. I know with last year’s player stats it will be tough to reach higher targets numbers based on player’s projections. When the combined batting average of players in major league baseball was less than .275, a .280 target numbers seem difficult to reach. Someone will get it right as you did last year.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

What is the weakness in your game?

If none, what would you like to improve upon?



What is the weakness in your game?



I think my biggest weakness is buying young players at the right time. Let’s face almost every player in this game knows the player pool. The key is: knowing when to invest and when to wait a year. If you are a year early, are you willing to go back to the well? This is an area I struggle with. I know this year there are a handful of players I owned last year for whatever reason. I need to decide if my evaluations were right or wrong. After having a poor year, it is very difficult to invest in players that were the reason for my failures. In reality, it was my decision making which led me there. If any player failed, they will be discounted which will lower their price point. If I liked them last year for a reason, I should like them this year unless their skill set changed or they were injured.



If none, what would you like to improve upon?



I’m sure I can improve on multiple things. I’d like to improve on is locking on to key players. I want to reevaluate some of my decision making prior to my drafts. If I really want a player, is he really the best option? Is he coming off a career thus increasing his chances of failure? Does his resume support his previous season and what are the chances of repeating? Is the player fairly priced?



I need to do a better job with when drafting closers. ¬¬I need to adjust my game plan. With so much instability in saves this year, it is really important to get it right at the draft table. If I decided to cheat saves again, I don’t want to over commit too many reserve spots at the draft table. I need to except my weakness and figure it out during the year. With so many question marks, players will have a chance to buy their first closer later than usual. The key is getting that first player right.

[Gekko]

Hellickson and Dan Hudson both ranked in my Top 10 SP last year based on value/innings pitched. I realize it's a small sample size, however, are people sleeping on these guys if they are slipping past the 10th round?

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:



Compared to other finishes in the Main, last year was an off year. Knowing what you know now, what would you have done differently?

Here’s the short version:



In my first draft, I knew I was going to draft Tulowitzki. My problem was round two which set up my offense. Votto was the player I need to take. I drafted Rollins. I thought about doubling up at short before I arrived in Vegas. I thought it was bad idea. But when I was on the clock, I didn’t make the wrong call. That one bad move led to multiple failures down the road. My drop down from Votto was Butler in round 5 (which would have been a bad selection). Butler was selected prior to my pick in round five. I free lanced and selected Matt Wieters. If I pass on Wieters, I draft Carlos Gonzalez. My lack of a first baseman led me to Chris Davis in round 10 which led me to spend $400+ dollars on Smoak.



On the pitching side, Greinke was never in my thought process prior to Vegas. In every draft I saw he was gone before my pick. When I sat down at the table, I was thinking Kershaw and Hamels as my first two starters. I ended up with Greinke and Jimenez and my staff had 110 wins, but I was free lancing at the table. I was making decision on the fly. I think I have a higher rate of success if I have thought out my decision before the draft.



In the second draft, I decided I wanted to change gears based on how the pitching was coming off the board. I selected Lincecum in round 2, but I would have taken Halladay. As a result of taking Lincecum, I ended up with Carlos Gonzalez. I whiffed on Beckett in round 5. It was just a poor decision. In this draft, I did bad job at first base (Loney round 10). Zobrist and Upton killed my BA on the 3/4 turn. I cheated closers and lost. I was one elite arm short and I could have drafted one better back end starter.



I regret not owning Votto in round two. If it helps, I drafted him in round two of the Diamond, but I screwed up that draft too!



Long version:



http://www.wcofs.com/site/baseballmafia ... MERVCC2010

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:



Has the constant writing up of each player and their teams helped you in preparation for this years drafts?

Or taken away time from your usual preparation? It hurt me because I’m behind schedule, but I’ve taken a look at almost every player for 45 minutes to an hour which can’t hurt.



In February, I start thinking about game planning. So I’m behind in that area for sure. In the past, I might think about the AL auction for a couple of days, then main event, and so on. I would have my spread sheet for the draft in pretty good order by now. I’ll be in good shape by the end of the month.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by JohnP:

Projections...I have always taken the approach that there are a whole lot of smart people out there that get paid to make projections and that I would be dumb not to use that work. Certainly I have my own biases and make my own adjustments as I see fit but....all in all....I rely a fair amount on projections. Of the various projection sources - do you tend to favor one versus another? Have one that is consistently in line with your own projections?



Preperation.....how has your prep changed over the years? What do you do differently today than say five years ago?



Congrats on all your success and thanks for being so willing to share your thoughts over the years. I don’t look at projections that much. I have an idea of a player skill set and what I expect out of them. When I look at player, I want to know what part of his stat lines are repeatable, what part can he improve, and what part will he decline. I’m basically looking for a player’s direction. At the same time, I think about the change in the team’s roster and where I believe he will hit in the lineup.

[CC's Desperados]

Originally posted by Walla Walla:

It won't be the same without you!