Live Chat With Todd Zola, Tuesday, Feb. 22nd At 7 PM ET

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 4:58 am

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Todd,

Justin Morneau called, he said he doesn't want to touch you either....

When somebody exclaims, "Lord knows!"

Do you say, "Yes, yes I do".

On a light note, in English,what stats do you think are the most under and over rated?

Seriously, love the clever stuff. Believe it or not, the "Lord" nickname was bestowed upon yours truly by Matthew Berry several years ago when he was the auctioneer for an XFL draft at a Fall AFL symposium. He said something about liking the way it sounded and that is how he referred to me for the duration of the auction. Then that night, during poker, back when the alcohol was as important as the cards, it was perpetuated and obviously, it stuck. The guys at KFFL wanted to "market" in with our content share, I originally balked but then said why not, embrace it and have some fun with it.

For me, the overrated stats are those like 1H/2H player, contract year, clutch or batter protection. While I am not saying players do not fit this description, I do not think we can distinguish who is real and who is just sitting at the end of the random distribution curve.

A few years back, BABIP may have been underrated, but to borrow a cliche we all use for players -- BABIP is now so underrated that it has become overrated. Everyone wants to show how smart they are by using BABIP/luck, etc. Don't get me wrong, it is a very powerful analytical tool, but I think that many are using it because they think they are smart if they do, but do not really understand it is composed of components and needs to be considered in context with its components. They hide behind BABIP in their analysis and do not dig deeper, to see what element of BABIP is the culprit.

For me, it is all about walk rate and strikeout rate for both hitters and pitchers. I think these are the best tools to hone in on skills growth or decay.

Though, with pitching, while many use BABIP as discussed above, it end results performance is all about the HR/9. HR/9 is also broekn into components, # fly balls x HR/FB.

# fly balls is controlled by the pitchers GB/FB ratio. Fewer fly balls, the lower the HR/9.

HR/FB is like BABIP in that there is debate over how much a pitcher can control the fate of a ball hit in the air. The league average is 11% and pitchers tend to regress to this level, meaning the # fly balls is what impacts the HR/9. I think one of the next big "breakthroughs" may be better understanding HR/FB and how different pitchers may or may not control it. The amount and quality, not to mention accessibility of this type of data has grown in leaps and bounds.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 5:24 am

Originally posted by rkulaski:

Todd,

How much stock do you put into BABIP? Assuming the average is .300, how do you explain the consistently low BABIP of a player like Carlos Quentin versus a high BABIP like Joey Votto? Is it a difference in fb%, simply a case of one guy being unlucky, other factors at play?

Also, what would you consider to be your strengths and weaknesses as you evaluate your results in the last 2 years of the main event? Talked a bit about BABIP already. This question alludes to some of the components mentioned above.

First off, there is a difference between BABIP for a pitcher and hitter. Pitchers tend to regress towards league average, about .300. Hitters develop their own baseline.

There are three main types of balls ion play --grounders, fly balls and line drives. Determination is mostly subjective, but it is becoming more objective with the improvement in video and measurement techniques. Also, those three classes are being fine tuned to include hard hit and soft hit balls as well as the advent of the "fliner", part fly ball, part line drive. But for the majority of us, we have access to GB, FB and LD data.

As mentioned already, on the average, 11% of FB clear the fence. Pitchers cluster around that level, hitters develop their own. One can easily understand that Adam Dunn has a higher HR/FB than Brendan Ryan.

About 15% of all non-HR fly balls are hits

About 25% of all grounders are hits

About 75% of all line drives are hits

So without even considering "luck", and discounting the ability for a pitcher to control the number of LDs he allows (which is actually the case, the number is pretty constant for all pitchers) a pitcher's BABIP is reflective of his GB/FB ratio. More grounders, higher BABIP (but fewer homers). This is where defense plays a role as well. A better defensive infield can lower that 25% and vice versa, same with a strong outfield and the 15%. This is another area currently under some investigation with the plethora of data now available.

So when I look at a pitcher and his BABIP, I want to look at the hit distribution along with the teams defense and not just the static BABIP.

The reason hitters have differing BABIPs is also due to hit distribution, with the number of line drives being paramount. Regression studies suggest hitters can control if they hit a line drive, pitchers control if a non-line drive is a GB or FB. So, the more LDs, the higher the BABIP and the higher the average in general. This is the primary difference between Quentin (LD% = 15.4) and Votto (LD%=22.5).

The average LD% is 18/19%. While I did mention batter have control over it, it is not "complete" control. There is still some luck involved so regression towards the mean is expected.

But, let's say there were two players with the same high BABIP. I expect LESS regression for the one with the higher LD%.

Here's another example. Austin Jackson had a sick BABIP, .396. But he also had a sick LD% of 24.2%. Those that want to show they are the smartest man in the room are predicting doom and gloom for AJax. Of course his BABIP will regress, but we don't know how much because we only have one data point with respect to his LD%. I don't consider it "my job" to tell you Jackson exact batting average. but it is my job to point out the LD% and suggest that if your draft is discounting him too much from the "luck", there could be a buying opportunity as his real LD% could be higher than average, keeping his BABIP up there, or at least higher than your other 11 or 14 competitors think it will be.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 5:34 am

Sorry, forgot about the second part...

Please do not interpret this an an excuse or a cop-out, but last season was a different circumstance, I was a co-manager and really more of the sidekick than anything. Personal circumstances dictated that and I am very much looking forward to returning as the lead pilot flying solo when I am able.

In 2009, I had my only money finish in the NFBC main, competing in the same league as that pig farmer dude. In fact, I needed 7 strikeouts from Rick Porcello is game #163 to pass another overall champion, Terry Haney, to take 3rd. I am the first to admit that while I did a decent job that year, I owe the finish to Joe Mauer. But, everyone needs some good fortune and he was mine.

So I am really looking forward to showing my 2009 finish was not a fluke and I can build on it.

It took me a while, but I think I finally understand that building a team through a draft as opposed to an auction is more than assembling "value". Actually, I realized that a few years ago, but my problem was I then tried to be too smart, too cute in my means of drafting.

So then I took a step back and decided the best thing to do is study how all of you guys in the NFBC are kicking my ass. After seeing "how", I looked at "why". Then I took that and wove it into a style that incorporates my nuances and hopefully, I can now hang with you guys. We'll see, if not this year, then next

Ryan C · Post by **Ryan C** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 7:06 am

Hey Todd - with Ken Macha finally gone in Milwaukee do you see the Brewers running more this season?

If so have you adjusted the SB numbers accordingly for Weeks/Braun/Hart and Gomez?

LONG GONE · Post by **LONG GONE** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 7:23 am

What are your projections for Pablo Sandoval?

Quahogs · Post by **Quahogs** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 8:08 am

Todd, as per Greg's analysis it looks like on avg about 5 of the top 15 picks under perform every season. Who are the 5 this season you cast a wary eye towards? And the reasons why? Thanks - good luck w/the job fair.

[ February 20, 2011, 02:09 PM: Message edited by: Quahogs ]

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 8:16 am

todd - who is this year's cargo?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 9:33 am

Originally posted by Ryan C:

Hey Todd - with Ken Macha finally gone in Milwaukee do you see the Brewers running more this season?

If so have you adjusted the SB numbers accordingly for Weeks/Braun/Hart and Gomez? I am usually not into this sort of analysis but the evidence is overwhelming that Macha constrained the Brewers running game, so yes, I have made some adjustments.

The manner I do SB is thus. I determine how many times a runner is on base thus has the opportunity to steal. I measure his % times running. Then using my current projection, I determine how many times he will be on base with a chance to steal and I come up with his SB chances. I then use his historical success rate to get SB and CS. So, a player's SB can go up if my projections have him getting on base more.

What I did in the instance of some of the Brewers is manually adjust the % of times they run if given the opportunity. I didn't go nuts when doing so, but did increases it over what the player did with Macha calling the shots.

[ February 20, 2011, 03:34 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 9:44 am

Originally posted by LONG GONE:

What are your projections for Pablo Sandoval? Better than they were yesterday, and I usually do not believe in the "lost weight, best shape of my life" rhetoric.

But, I know a little something about the psychology of weight gain, weight loss and back again, unfortunately.

Sandoval did this without fanfare, it was his manager that talked about it. He didn't come out and say i am going to hit 30 homers and steal 20 bases. To me, this speaks as much towards his mental approach as much as the tangible impact of being in better shape.

I still have him in between his 2010 and 2009 campaigns, but now I have more 2009 than 2010.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 10:12 am

Originally posted by Quahogs:

Todd, as per Greg's analysis it looks like on avg about 5 of the top 15 picks under perform every season. Who are the 5 this season you cast a wary eye towards? And the reasons why? Thanks - good luck w/the job fair. Ron Shandler also talks about this. The reason is usually injury and not so much performance. I already sort of touched on this in another answer, pointing out warts on a bunch of the top players.

But I will pick out a couple and detail then a little more.

Adrian Gonzalez -- many objective projection engines take a player's stats and correct for the park, usually assuming half a player's games are in the home park. Here is an example. A HR index of 100 is neutral. 120 means a 20% increase and 80 means a 20% decrease. Someone hitting 40 HR in a neutral park would be expected to hit

20 at home (no adjustment) and 20 on the road.

If this player moves to a better park, index of 120...

20 at home - 20 x 1.2 = 24, total of 44.

if the index were 80....

20x.8 = 16, total of 36.

The same idea is applied to hits, etc,

The difference HR index for LHB for Fenway and PETCO is about 30. This makes 36 homers as a Padre to be about 41 as a Red Sox. I think some people are expecting more. Applying the same thing to BA and his expected BA is in the .330s. And while no one is saying that (though some are close) the expectations there are steep as well. Ten factor in the shoulder and we could have a small disappointment on our hands.

Robinson Cano -- yes, he is good, very good and has been so for 4 years. But he is getting too much of a "scarcity" boost due to his position and his numbers are in part due to his durability, playing 159 or more games the past 4 years. He doesn't run and is not going to spike in either HR or BA (his skills are excellent, but flat) so he has no means to make up for lost production due to injury. I am not predicting injury, just saying "accumulators" like Cano have a different sort of risk. FWIW, Pedroia fit this mold last season.

Joey Votto -- I know I mentioned in another answer his BABIP is due to an excellent LD rate, but of all skills, this is the most likely to fluctuate and without his high BABIP leading to high average, Votto is not a first rounder. In other words, he could fall just because of some crappy luck.

Carlos Gonzalez -- if we beat this (or the Bautista) horse anymore, PETA is going to boycott the NFBC. We talked about the performance risk, but I am more concerned about the injury risk. Even last year he "only" played 145 games and was questionable (but played) in many others. He managed to avoid a DL stint, playing a game, taking one off, playing the next, etc. He mat not be so lucky this season.

[ February 20, 2011, 04:13 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 10:34 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

todd - who is this year's cargo? WARNING: ELITIST SOAPBOX RANT AHEAD (but not intended for Gekko, he just happened to be the first to ask this type of question).

There is a chance you may have seen this "wrath" directed at someone at a First Pitch Forum when I am asked "Who is this year's ......".

My head is saying "I have no effing idea".

But Ron would get mad at me if I said that. So instead I play the game. Nd I'll do that here as well, don't worry, I know what the question REALLY means

Using hyperbole, in general, the question is asking "who do you think will do something completely unpredictable, that no one has ever done before?"

Well, if I KNEW the answer, it would not be unpredictable and would therefore not be a surprise, it would be expected.

but like I said, I "get" the question. The answer may be as much gut feel as number crunching, but whoever is asking is asking for some speculation and is curious about the reasoning so they can judge if there is any credence to the speculation.

I'm not a big gut feel guy, but we are all human and obviously, that comes into play. But my answer is not so much gut feel or even based on numbers, because like I said, if the skills said break out, that would be reflected within projected numbers.

What I look for is players one, or maybe two factors away from being better. A factor can be a skill, or health, or a change in role. etc.

For example....

If Jeter, Cano or Granderson get hurt and Brett Gardner is moved to the top of the order, he can accrue 100 more plate appearances, 15-20 more steals, more runs, etc., without a single alteration to his skill set whatsoever.

If Nelson Cruz plays 155 games, he is a top-3 fantasy player. If he gets lucky with his hit rate, he is #1.

If Colby Rasmus or Drew Stubbs make better contact, they could be first rounders.

If Andrew McCutchen raises his HR/FB to league average without impacting anything else, he's a first rounder.

if Hunter Pence lofts a few more balls (his HR/FB is outstanding, he just hits a ton of grounders), he's a first rounder.

Again, I am not PREDICTING any of this to happen. Just pointing out these guys are all one factor away from improving their numbers.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 10:45 am

Oops, forgot one...

If Seth Smith plays regularly, and improves his on base and power just a tad, he could be a top-20 outfielder. He doesn't run enough to make it a first round prediction, but more playing time alone puts him in the conversation.

And FWIW, if this were asked this time last year, Jose Bautista and CarGo himself would have fit the "good skills in line to get more playing time" criteria.

Dickie V · Post by **Dickie V** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 10:53 am

Hey Todd....Miguel Cabrera....lets say for now that I'm not a real risk taker with my 1st rd. pick. With all these slow drafts starting tomorrow (hopefully) and based on the info thats available as of today...where do you think he should go? thanks

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 11:03 am

Originally posted by Dickie V:

Hey Todd....Miguel Cabrera....lets say for now that I'm not a real risk taker with my 1st rd. pick. With all these slow drafts starting tomorrow (hopefully) and based on the info thats available as of today...where do you think he should go? thanks There is no in between. If you are not a risk taker, you don't take him. If you are, he's the #2 pick, same as he was this time last week.

What I am saying is there is no point where the risk is worth the reward. Not 1.05, 1.08, 1.12, whatever. I mean duh, yes, there is a point, but someone else would have no doubt taken him by then.

With my first round pick, I care s much about LIKELIHOOD of attaining the stats as I do what the stats are. That is, I will take a more reliable, LOWER ranked player if the reliability difference is significant.

I am not doing a slow draft tomorrow, so it is easy for me to say something one way of another -- I wouldn't know FOR SURE until I am on he clock and faced with the decision. But, Miggy apparently played with this issue previous to 2010 and it did not impact him, so at least in terms of performance, I don't see it having an effect. But if he loses time due to rehab or it is known he is one more strike from a lengthy suspension, that would cause me pause.

Drafting tomorrow -- I pass.

But as more info becomes available, I reserve the right to change my mind

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 11:06 am

more rants!!!! more rants!!!!

thanks for the heads-up on Rasmus.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 12:41 pm

Todd,

As always, my friend, I truly enjoy your posts and appreciate your taking the time to respond to all the "live" chat questions. I still remember our league back in Tampa in 2006 (you drafted 15th I believe) fondly. You are a great competitor.

Now to my question. I was on the other side of the world last week in Manila. While it caused me to miss out on Shawn's (excellent) chat, I did do a little fantasy baseball research and I wanted your opinion of what I discovered. The target of my research was on Alex Rodriguez who does not seem to be getting the (non-tabloid) press this year as much as he has in the past when the discussion seemed to be around who to pick first...Pujols, ARod, or Hanley. So I conducted some non-scientific research by jumping in on a few jeepney's in Manila and asked the people of Manila the following question:

"How confident would you be in selecting Alex Rodriguez in the first round of an NFBC type snake draft?"

I got three general responses:

1) "Nakikita ang butas ng karayom, hindi nakikita ang butas ng palakol." (Filipino proverb which roughly translated means "He sees a minor fault but misses the larger achievement.")

2) "Me love you long-time, long-time." (Ex-pat entrepreneur which roughly translated means you are about to catch a social disease.)

3) "Get the hell out of here, fat boy, or the tires will go flat." Needs no further translation.

Focusing on the first response, is A-Rod slipping to later in the first (early second?) warranted, or has the general consensus made a mistake by focusing on last years BA struggles and losing sight of the greater abilities?

[ February 23, 2011, 05:21 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 1:09 pm

AL auction...how much for JJ Hardy?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 1:12 pm

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Todd,

As always, my friend, I truly enjoy your posts and appreciate your taking the time to respond to all the "live" chat questions. I still remember our league back in Tampa in 2006 (you drafted 15th I believe) fondly. You are a great competitor.

Now to my question. I was on the other side of the world last week in Manila. While it caused me to miss out on Shawn's (excellent) chat, I did do a little fantasy baseball research and I wanted your opinion of what I discovered. The target of my research was on Alex Rodriguez who does not seem to be getting the (non-tabloid) press this year as much as he has in the past when the discussion seemed to be around who to pick first...Pujols, ARod, or Hanley. So I conducted some non-scientific research by jumping in on a few jeepney's in Manila and asked the people of Manila the following question:

"How confident would you be in selecting Alex Rodriguez in the first round of an NFBC type snake draft?"

I got three general responses:

1) "Nakikita ang butas ng karayom, hindi nakikita ang butas ng palakol." (Filipino proverb which roughly translated means "He sees a minor fault but misses the larger achievement.")

2) "Me love you long-time, long-time." (Filipino entrepreneur which roughly translated means you are about to catch a social disease.)

3) "Get the hell out of here, fat boy, or the tires will go flat." Needs no further translation.

Focusing on the first response, is A-Rod slipping to later in the first (early second?) warranted, or has the general consensus made a mistake by focusing on last years BA struggles and losing sight of the greater abilities? There is a "you pay first then you play" joke in here somewhere, but I'm not the one with the right to make it....

The deal with ARod, at least in my view, is not the skills at all. We talked about BABIP before. He had a low BABIP because he had a low LD%. Everything else is fine. Perhaps there is a tangible reason -- the hip took him out of his normal routine or whatever, or perhaps it is just one of those things, but for whatever reason, he did not all of a sudden forget how to hit line drives. I expect a correction and a better average.

The "problem" is you need to temper his at bats. Earlier, I talked about how you can make Kinsler a 2nd round player by plugging in a replacement for 15 games (or whatever.). ARod's lost at bats are a little different. He is not likely to miss a log stretch as he is a game here, a couple there -- in other words you won't be able to take him out of your lineup and get the replacement stats, boosting up the value of the ROSTER SPOT, not just ARod.

If you feel he is good for 150+ games, his skills are still top 10. Me? I'll take him late first without blinking an eye,and already have in one league that counts. But not top-10. And, I will take Longoria or Wright of they are still on the board, tough this could change if I decide ARod will play more games than I have him for now. I have him at 82% playing time at cleanup, for 596 plate appearances (.284 BA).

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 1:18 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

AL auction...how much for JJ Hardy? I don't treat values at a stop/go. As of now, I will have number $13 next to his name, but that doesn't mean if you bid 12, I will definitely say 13. And if I do, and you say 14, it does not mean I may not say 15.

To again paraphrase KJ Duke, it is all about the intrinsic value he provides to my team at the time, with consideration of the market value of other players that can provide the same kind of stats.

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 1:18 pm

How badly are Greinke and Gallardo (in particular) going to be screwed by the already-bad Brewer infield defense of Fielder/Weeks/McGehee now that they traded their only useful infield defender and have replaced him with the absolutely brutal Yuni Betancourt?

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 1:24 pm

[ February 20, 2011, 07:26 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 1:42 pm

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

How badly are Greinke and Gallardo (in particular) going to be screwed by the already-bad Brewer infield defense of Fielder/Weeks/McGehee now that they traded their only useful infield defender and have replaced him with the absolutely brutal Yuni Betancourt? I don't think there is a manner to quantify it, so I am not going to worry about it. Plus, the error bars associated with the "luck" element of BABIP are likely greater the impact Yuni will have.

I think I mentioned this previously, but an area where we can fine tune projections is the inclusion of better defensive metrics. There is no doubt that Milwaukee's defense is below average. Their team BABIP is higher than the average and other defensive metrics also point to the defense costing the team runs.

From a projection standpoint, Gallardo has already had this built into his numbers. Greinke is coming from the Royals, whose defense is almost as poor as the Brewers, so if there were a means of making an adjustment, it would be small.

Someone interesting to consider is Marcum. The Blue Jays had a little better than average defense. but, marcum is also switching leagues, coming out of the AL East, etc so all this is likely a wash.

So, to be clear, I am not arguing that defense should not be considered in projections. I am just not sure we have a real handle on how to do it and there are other overriding factors that will mask the adjustment.

That said, if you are deciding between a Brewer and another hurler and in a vacuum, value them the same, then making the Brewer pay a "Yuni" tax and passing on him is perfectly defensible. I'm just not sure I would jump a guy over him in the rankings because of it is all.

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 1:50 pm

Is Greinke a Top 10 pitcher?

Swinging Strike % dropped from 9.9 to 7.5

Contact rate jumped from 78% to 83%

Goes from a stadium where the 3 year HR Park Factor for LHB is 74 to one where it is 126

Awful defense (although, as you say, KC was awful)

The league switch helps, but I'm skeptical.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 1:51 pm

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I still remember our league back in Tampa in 2006 (you drafted 15th I believe) fondly. I remember that league well. That was back when I thought I knew it all and was sadly mistaken.

There is a lot of discussion about "what is an expert". Somewhere in the description has got to be not being to obstinate to open your eyes and figure out what successful people are doing.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 2:04 pm

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

Is Greinke a Top 10 pitcher?

Swinging Strike % dropped from 9.9 to 7.5

Contact rate jumped from 78% to 83%

Goes from a stadium where the 3 year HR Park Factor for LHB is 74 to one where it is 126

Awful defense (although, as you say, KC was awful)

The league switch helps, but I'm skeptical. Skepticism is good. It helps us temper expectations. My next update will have Greinke at exactly #10.

The numbers you mention are concerning, but we are comparing him to a season where he was off the charts good. His 2010 was awfully reminiscent of 2008, expect for a low LOB%, which is more than likely happenstance. Strip out the bad luck last year, use the skills from 2008 and 2010 as the baseline with some upside as displayed in 2009 and we have a guy in the conversation at the back end of a top 10 list.