Live Chat With Todd Zola, Tuesday, Feb. 22nd At 7 PM ET

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 2:14 pm

[ February 20, 2011, 08:18 PM: Message edited by: Walla Walla ]

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 2:24 pm

walking into AL auction...is $11 for Kouzmanoff too low or just right?

[ February 20, 2011, 08:25 PM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Feb 20, 2011 2:29 pm

Originally posted by Gekko:

walking into AL auction...is $11 for Kouzmanoff too low or just right? That's the neighborhood he lives in on my tiers.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 2:09 am

you might be able to tell by the type of questions i've been asking...i'm considering a run in the AL and NL auctions. Never did one of those before, only mixed.

I've been looking at the depth for these leagues and it's really really thin. how crippling are injuries in these types of leagues? if i won miggy for $40 and he went down with a season ending injury in the first week of the season, my likely replacement player would be a part-timer. on the surface it appears that injuries to your star players are much more crippling than in mixed auctions or standard snake drafts.

what's your take? thanks!

[ February 21, 2011, 08:20 AM: Message edited by: Gekko ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:08 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

you might be able to tell by the type of questions i've been asking...i'm considering a run in the AL and NL auctions. Never did one of those before, only mixed.

I've been looking at the depth for these leagues and it's really really thin. how crippling are injuries in these types of leagues? if i won miggy for $40 and he went down with a season ending injury in the first week of the season, my likely replacement player would be a part-timer. on the surface it appears that injuries to your star players are much more crippling than in mixed auctions or standard snake drafts.

what's your take? thanks! They're absolutely more crippling. It makes it a different game. Some may even suggest it is more of a war of attrition than mixed leagues and they may be right.

You hope that "luck evens out", but chances are, someone will have more injuries and someone will have fewer. But there are ways to mitigate risk, etc.

Sort of sounds like fantasy football to a certain degree

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:10 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Sort of sounds like fantasy football to a certain degree

unfortunately. thanks todd

Coyotes · Post by **Coyotes** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 1:29 pm

Your projections for U Jiminez and de la Rosa are well below those of other experts. Worried about the balls at Coors?

Coyotes · Post by **Coyotes** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 1:31 pm

Your projections for U Jiminez and de la Rosa are well below those of other experts. Worried about the balls at Coors?

oldwolf55 · Post by **oldwolf55** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 2:03 pm

What is your take on Rios this year and what round would you consider him in?

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 2:41 pm

[ February 22, 2011, 05:51 PM: Message edited by: Walla Walla ]

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:05 pm

Todd,

Pardon my ignorance on this, but who is responsible for the projections at Mastersball.com? Are you one part of a team that puts these projections together during the offseason? Also, at the end of the season, do you guys ever assess how accurate (or inaccurate) your projections were? Do you know how you stack up against others like Baseball HQ, etc?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:15 pm

Originally posted by Coyotes:

Your projections for U Jiminez and de la Rosa are well below those of other experts. Worried about the balls at Coors? Not the balls but the bases on balls. And actually, my numbers are in line with several of the more objective systems.

I use a skills based projections. I start with K/9 and BB/9. I then come up with a HR/9 assuming some regression of HR/FB and a hit rate assuming some BABIP regression as well. I then have an expected ERA calculation that uses those skills and incorporates some other normalization factors.

My De La Rosa numbers are probably "high" because of his walk rate and a little high HR/9 and my Ubaldo numbers probably regressed his hit rate more than some.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:22 pm

Originally posted by oldwolf55:

What is your take on Rios this year and what round would you consider him in? I like Rios a lot. I see 2009 as the outlier and think he has a little more upside if he can hit more fly balls.

Depending on the composition of my team, he will be on my radar starting in round 3.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 3:37 pm

Originally posted by rkulaski:

Todd,

Pardon my ignorance on this, but who is responsible for the projections at Mastersball.com? Are you one part of a team that puts these projections together during the offseason? Also, at the end of the season, do you guys ever assess how accurate (or inaccurate) your projections were? Do you know how you stack up against others like Baseball HQ, etc? Consider your ignorance pardoned.

It is a group effort, but I am definitely the quarterback. The projection engine itself is a group effort with me and a guy who knows more than me.

I head up the playing time committee but take input from the entire staff. I also am more than willing to let the readers convince me I have some playing time tweaks to make.

As far as how we stack up, it is not that I am "afraid" at all. I just have yet to see a means to "grade" projections that I philosophically agree with. That said, we do a bunch of internal post mortem and incorporate some new ideas each off sseason. The regression I have mentioned previously is something we look at as well as minor league translations.

To be honest, I know that producing projections are a necessary evil for those of us that do what we do. But truth be told, I would much rather focus my time on talking about more game theory than fine tuning projections.

Now with that said, something I do pride myself on is being on top of playing time situations as I feel there is only so much one can do with the skills. What distinguishes one set of projections from another is the playing time component.

Lobbyist999 · Post by **Lobbyist999** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 4:32 pm

Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

We're happy to announce that Todd Zola of Mastersball.com will join us for a Live Chat on Tuesday at 7 pm ET. Can you please provide a link where the live chat is held?

Thx.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 4:35 pm

Originally posted by Random Lobbyist:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

We're happy to announce that Todd Zola of Mastersball.com will join us for a Live Chat on Tuesday at 7 pm ET. Can you please provide a link where the live chat is held?

Thx. [/QUOTE]The chat will happen in this thread. Todd's jumped the gun. If you any question, you can ask him here or wait until Tuesday night.

Lobbyist999 · Post by **Lobbyist999** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 4:36 pm

Todd, thanks for doing this.

Curious to get your take on Ryan Zimmerman. Not huge HR total last year, high GB rate, usually goes in the middle of the 2nd in a 15-teamer. Overvalued?

Lobbyist999 · Post by **Lobbyist999** » Mon Feb 21, 2011 4:37 pm

Originally posted by CC's Desperados:

quote:Originally posted by Random Lobbyist:

quote:Originally posted by Greg Ambrosius:

We're happy to announce that Todd Zola of Mastersball.com will join us for a Live Chat on Tuesday at 7 pm ET. Can you please provide a link where the live chat is held?

Thx. [/QUOTE]The chat will happen in this thread. Todd's jumped the gun. If you any question, you can ask him here or wait until Tuesday night. [/QUOTE]Thx for that. The word "LIVE" misled me. Thread replies tend to lag.

Walla Walla · Post by **Walla Walla** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 10:50 am

26 Brix ? Not a bad name and it matches the perfect thing for the fine wine.

Greg Ambrosius · Post by **Greg Ambrosius** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 10:57 am

Thanks again Todd for doing this tonight and throughout the weekend and into this week. Folks love to talk numbers and nobody does it better than you!! Hey, that's a compliment by the way!!

Enjoy the talk folks and we'll keep doing this every Tuesday and maybe even more often if we can. Keep posting questions for Todd so that he has to stay up into Wednesday!!

Best of luck Todd on the "other" career outside of fantasy baseball. I know you'll hit a home run there soon. Good luck.

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 11:32 am

OK Todd, who's a bigger Jacka$s? Me for drafting Jose Bautista or Toronto for giving him $60 million?

Doesn't this sort of stuff promote illegal HGH products? One big year at the time...bang payday.

Your a chemist by trade, ever think of working for the dark side of baseball?

CC's Desperados · Post by **CC's Desperados** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 11:35 am

Not be a wise a$$, would you really trust Lilly and his 86.7 MPH fastball as an early SP3...his upside seems to be limited?

Bo's Bombers · Post by **Bo's Bombers** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 11:35 am

How do you handle OF's this year. After doing many mock drafts, it seems like if you don't get two good OF's in the first five rounds, your chasing your tail trying to get them. Do you agree?

crazytown · Post by **crazytown** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 11:39 am

Todd,

Regarding auction leagues: Why does it always appear that some top players cost a few dollars more than any publication has them predicted. Pujols for example, and maybe another player or 2, will go for more than 40 in all NFBC leagues this spring yet no publications ever have him as high as that. What are your thoughts on this topic and other auction values?

Bo's Bombers · Post by **Bo's Bombers** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 11:39 am

When planning your first ten picks, Do you have an idea of what position you want to fill in each round?