Live Chat With Todd Zola, Tuesday, Feb. 22nd At 7 PM ET

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:41 pm

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Todd,

Can I officially stick a fork in Brandon Wood?

Who wins the LAA 3B job? Callaspo, Izturis, Wood, Trumbo, etc.

Give me a few end game catchers $1-2 that could surprise.

Thanks Sure, but I have already burned him to a crisp so your fork may not stick.

I think Callaspo wins the job. Izturis is too valuable in the super utility role, Trumbo is rusty and Wood sucks.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:45 pm

Todd,

54898410165489841

(Which is more sustainable, a breakout FB% or a breakout HR/FB?)

Brian

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:46 pm

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Are there any young SP that have had "workload spikes" that concern you so much that you will stay away?

Are there any Yankees that are too busy building mansions that i should avoid?

Thanks Short answer is no. I am torn on this so-called Verducci effect and when I am torn, and if it is something I can handle, I like to take a look at the data myself, but I just have not had the time.

That said, while it is not 100% workload related, I am a bit leery of Mat Latos. He was supposed to call it quits after 150-160 IP and he obviously passed that. I fear SD may go a little easy on him to compensate. And as much as I like him, I was heavily invested in him last season, I am not going to pay what it takes to invest in him this season -- there is going to be some give back in his numbers.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:48 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Can I officially stick a fork in Brandon Wood?Sure, but I have already burned him to a crisp so your fork may not stick.

[/QUOTE]Done!

Ooof, what a P.O.S. this guy turned out to be.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:48 pm

Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

Be sure to check your email later Todd. Thanks. I swear it wasn't me.

And if this is about fixing rosters in CR, it's next on my Toddy-do list.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:49 pm

Originally posted by Bob Enzyte:

Todd, you are currently at 6 pages for this chat. Shawn finished at 12. Can you match or beat him?

I can ask this question about 100 more times if it would help. Honestly Lindy, I am not into this sort of thing.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:50 pm

S

E

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I

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L

Y

I

C

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L

D

C

A

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ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:53 pm

I mean, if I did care I would start taking a page out or Quahogs book and post some arbitrary pictures.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 12:57 pm

Originally posted by oldwolf55:

According to my rankings I have 14 1st round choices after that it's a bunch of ?. so if you have 1.15 & 2.01 who are you looking at? I have it narrowed to Tex, A-Rod, Hamilton That looks about right. The thing I would warn against is reaching for a so-called scarce position "just because". I wouldn't go Utley and Zimmerman, for example.

If I started with ARod and Tex, I'd be pretty happy.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:01 pm

Originally posted by Red Sox Nation:

Lets talk Colorado:

Who do you feel earns the most PT at 2B? Lopez, EY2, Wiggington.

Will RF will be a strict platoon between Smith and Spill? Thanks

Jason With the disclaimer that I have no effin' idea....

I'm giving Lopez the majority of the run at 2B and would be just fine with him as my CI (then MI) in the high teens.

I looks for Smith to play more than a strict platoon. but again, I try to read numbers, not tea leaves and stuff like this, while part of what I need to do, is an educated but speculative dart throw.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:03 pm

Originally posted by King of Queens:

Please rank the following:

Toy Story

A Bug's Life

Toy Story 2

Monsters, Inc.

Finding Nemo

The Incredibles

Cars

Ratatouille

WALL-E

Up

Toy Story 3 Last movie I saw live was Tommy Boy. I'm not a fan of watching movies live. I can get all I need from a movie by reading reviews. It keeps me more focused and is a much more efficient use of my time.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:08 pm

Originally posted by bjoak:

Todd,

54898410165489841

(Which is more sustainable, a breakout FB% or a breakout HR/FB?)

Brian Good question and I honestly do not know. This is sort of a catch-22. In order to incorporate the most up to date information in my projections, I need to be up to date on the research being conducted by people far smarter than I will ever be. I only have to be smart enough to understand what they figured out. But since I am actually producing projections, I miss out on this sort of thing.

Intuitively, I would say HR/FB is more sustainable as some studies I have seen suggest batters have some level of control over whether they hit a line drive or not, but the pitcher controls if it is GB of FB. And FWIW, while the correlation is significant, it is not that large so happenstance plays a role.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:18 pm

Few people know how to speak numerish fluently.

Does anybody know the language better than you?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:23 pm

Originally posted by DOUGHBOYS:

Few people know how to speak numerish fluently.

Does anybody know the language better than you? With respect to having a feel for how to apply some of this stuff to fantasy baseball, I like to think I have a knack for that.

But I am embarrassed when someone calls me a sabermetrician. If you think I am bad, you should see the guys that really know their shizzle.

I'm just a decent cook following someone else's recipe.

Cocktails and Dreams · Post by **Cocktails and Dreams** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:40 pm

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

Be sure to check your email later Todd. Thanks. I swear it wasn't me.

And if this is about fixing rosters in CR, it's next on my Toddy-do list. [/QUOTE]Ha, no not about that. I barely can understand how to assemble a mixed 8 team league with a bunch of homers at a bar at this point let alone dealing with you sharks in NL only auctions and what not. Hopefully Perry does.

Cocktails and Dreams · Post by **Cocktails and Dreams** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:43 pm

I have a question regarding Wainright. I think I scout a little more than some during the season and he was huge for me last year. However, he clearly was not the same pitcher down the stretch no matter what the numbers say. Do you have any concerns about him wearing down a little with quite a few innings?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 1:48 pm

Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

I have a question regarding Wainright. I think I scout a little more than some during the season and he was huge for me last year. However, he clearly was not the same pitcher down the stretch no matter what the numbers say. Do you have any concerns about him wearing down a little with quite a few innings? If you recall, he was actually shut down a start or two early with a twinge in his elbow. So it may not have been so much wearing down as something wrong.

It is a little disconcerting that there has been so little talk about this, but one of my partners on Mastersball, Brian Walton is about as plugged into the Cards as you can be and he has not expressed any concerns.

I am sure his name will come up this weekend at the First Pitch Forums, I am going to make it a point to ask Rick Wilton about him.

Money · Post by **Money** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:10 pm

Todd, how about some slow draft advice. Roster makeup? But more importantly about learning the player pool and getting the best prepared possible for the real drafts.

Thanks

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:21 pm

Originally posted by Fast Money:

Todd, how about some slow draft advice. Roster makeup? But more importantly about learning the player pool and getting the best prepared possible for the real drafts.

Thanks I have only done one DC so my experience is not that vast and it was in one evening.

I think there are a bunch of different ways to skin the proverbial cat, with the overriding thought that you want to maximize IP and AB.

I can see taking some ace starters early, penalizing your hitters but loading up on hitters later, hoping someone emerges.

I can see getting a stalwart offense and throwing a ton of pitching darts, hoping enough of them land.

Basically, whatever you do with hitting, you sort of do the opposite with pitching in terms of risk versus stability.

I am not a fan of using a roster spot on someone like Ackley or Belt. I'd rather have Ty Wigginton.

I'd get as many multiple eligibility guys as I could as well, to maximize AB.

I'd also stay away from drafting spec closers and would draft my saves. I may try to target a closer whose handcuff is "obvious" and maybe easier to get -- Franklin/Motte for example.

Again, this is more thinking out loud than tried and true strategies.

As far as prep for the regular draft, I saw the question about ADP has already been posted. I think sometimes we get so caught up in what we think is supposed to happen we lose sight of what is actually happening and hinder our ability to react.

Remember, the A stands for AVERAGE.

Chest Rockwell · Post by **Chest Rockwell** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:31 pm

Todd,

Any chance we will see you in Vegas this year first weekend? You are a good fella.

I hope the job thing works out for you in the very near future.

Money · Post by **Money** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:35 pm

Great response Todd. Thank you very much.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Tue Feb 22, 2011 2:37 pm

Originally posted by Chest Rockwell:

Todd,

Any chance we will see you in Vegas this year first weekend? You are a good fella.

I hope the job thing works out for you in the very near future. No, and thanks.

The first weekend is Tout Wars. As Greg and Tom know, I am still holding out hope of a return to Vegas for the 2nd weekend if the AL and NL auctions are not filled, but I told them not to hold a spot for me

Playing the Main Event the second weekend is still in play, there is still time.

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 2:36 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

I have a question regarding Wainright. I think I scout a little more than some during the season and he was huge for me last year. However, he clearly was not the same pitcher down the stretch no matter what the numbers say. Do you have any concerns about him wearing down a little with quite a few innings? If you recall, he was actually shut down a start or two early with a twinge in his elbow. So it may not have been so much wearing down as something wrong.

It is a little disconcerting that there has been so little talk about this, but one of my partners on Mastersball, Brian Walton is about as plugged into the Cards as you can be and he has not expressed any concerns.

I am sure his name will come up this weekend at the First Pitch Forums, I am going to make it a point to ask Rick Wilton about him. [/QUOTE]Not quite so plugged in....

Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak said Wednesday that Adam Wainwright is going back to St. Louis to have the ligament in his right elbow examined. Mozeliak told reporters that he believes it is "a significant injury."

Ouch

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 2:47 am

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

I have a question regarding Wainright. I think I scout a little more than some during the season and he was huge for me last year. However, he clearly was not the same pitcher down the stretch no matter what the numbers say. Do you have any concerns about him wearing down a little with quite a few innings? If you recall, he was actually shut down a start or two early with a twinge in his elbow. So it may not have been so much wearing down as something wrong.

It is a little disconcerting that there has been so little talk about this, but one of my partners on Mastersball, Brian Walton is about as plugged into the Cards as you can be and he has not expressed any concerns.

I am sure his name will come up this weekend at the First Pitch Forums, I am going to make it a point to ask Rick Wilton about him. [/QUOTE]Not quite so plugged in....

Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak said Wednesday that Adam Wainwright is going back to St. Louis to have the ligament in his right elbow examined. Mozeliak told reporters that he believes it is "a significant injury."

Ouch [/QUOTE]No, he's plugged in. No one knew. A report on Feb 10 said was he was pain free. Some of the injury analysts were right, however, to be concerned without there being no definite explanation given for the twinge last fall. The assumption was no news is good news s opposed to "the MRI came back negative" or whatever.

The difference in potentially having TJS now and last fall is huge. He'll lose part of 2012 now.

Lesson learned -- when a pitcher has an injury of this type, be cautious unless there is evidence the club checked things out and reported no damage. And even then, make him prove it in the spring.

[ February 23, 2011, 08:49 AM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Wed Feb 23, 2011 3:05 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Hells Satans:

quote:Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

I have a question regarding Wainright. I think I scout a little more than some during the season and he was huge for me last year. However, he clearly was not the same pitcher down the stretch no matter what the numbers say. Do you have any concerns about him wearing down a little with quite a few innings? If you recall, he was actually shut down a start or two early with a twinge in his elbow. So it may not have been so much wearing down as something wrong.

It is a little disconcerting that there has been so little talk about this, but one of my partners on Mastersball, Brian Walton is about as plugged into the Cards as you can be and he has not expressed any concerns.

I am sure his name will come up this weekend at the First Pitch Forums, I am going to make it a point to ask Rick Wilton about him. [/QUOTE]Not quite so plugged in....

Cardinals general manager John Mozeliak said Wednesday that Adam Wainwright is going back to St. Louis to have the ligament in his right elbow examined. Mozeliak told reporters that he believes it is "a significant injury."

Ouch [/QUOTE]No, he's plugged in. No one knew. A report on Feb 10 said was he was pain free. Some of the injury analysts were right, however, to be concerned without there being no definite explanation given for the twinge last fall. The assumption was no news is good news s opposed to "the MRI came back negative" or whatever.

The difference in potentially having TJS now and last fall is huge. He'll lose part of 2012 now.

Lesson learned -- when a pitcher has an injury of this type, be cautious unless there is evidence the club checked things out and reported no damage. And even then, make him prove it in the spring. [/QUOTE]Oh, just messing around. The timing just struck me since I remembered reading this last night.