Ramblings

[DOUGHBOYS]

If you ever get a big head about fantasy baseball, pick up one of your old drafts, any old draft.

I picked up some old notes that I'd left for myself involving the Hot Tub League. This league drafts next Monday.

My team finished first last year, so I expected to see a lot of smart picks, instead, it showed humility.

My fifth round pick was Joe Nathan, who in just a couple of weeks was meeting Tommy John.

I really liked Jonathon Sanchez last year, I thought he was a #2 masquerading as a #4, so my plan for this league was to take one ace (Felix Hernandez) early, and besides one closer (Nathan) draft all offense till I could pick Sanchez in a double digit round. Sounds good. But the week before the draft, Jules sends me an e-mail asking me which pitcher I liked better, DeLaRosa or Sanchez. I couldn't lie and told her I gave the edge to Sanchez. Luckily, she either forgot or didn't care what I thought and Sanchez was still there in the 12th round. But, before I got to Sanchez in the 12th round, my draft was littered with offensive powerhouses such as Jason Bartlett, Garrett Jones, and Chris Ianetta.

Luckily, Even though I loaded up on offense, I chased it all year. I got the pitching right. Sanchez was a virtual #2 last year and behind him I took Buchholz in the 14th, Wade Davis in the 17th, Marcum in the 20th and Pavano and Jaime Garcia in the 29th and 30th.

Don't be quick to pat me on the back. Before taking Pavano and Garcia, I took Oliver Perez in the 28th. BRILLIANT!



We'll never see a perfect draft in fantasy baseball. This draft got me first place and perfection was out the door, before the start of the season when Nathan went down.

But perfection is what we strive for with each pick, but like golf, we know most won't find the bottom of the cup.



I was looking at last year's adp.

22 of the 60 top adp players from last year, will not be drafted in the first four rounds this year. That's quite a turnover. Some, because of injury like Bay, Sizemore, Ellsbury, Wainwright, and Santana. Some, like Sandoval, Lind, Reynolds, and Broxton could not sustain past numbers.



We're funny with injury. We cut some guys slack, like Ian Kinsler, who is trying to set some kind of record for dl appearances, but reamains in the top four rounds. But, will punish a guy with another kind of injury like Josh Hamilton with a first round adp, followed by a 5th round adp last year, and back to a first round adp this year.

Sometimes, I wonder whether the Kinsler injuries hurt more, while he is dl'ed for weeks or a month, he is taking up a bench spot. The Chipper effect.

For some reason with Hamilton, the fear is a season ending injury, which of course hurts, but we KNOW what we are dealing with and a bench spot has just opened up.

Same could be said for Jose Reyes, we all know that if healthy, he can produce first round numbers. Just two years ago, his adp was three. Now with the fear of a long injury his adp last year was 39, and less skeptics this year as he is being taken in the second round of most drafts.



Ok, I've fulfilled the title of this thread. Time to get my study on and ready myself for the sharks swimmimg around in the Hot Tub.

[Ando]

Been missing these Dan. Good work and I hope some regular programming from Mr. Kenyon is in store for us. A nice writeup about activities in the HotTub sometime next week would be nice!

[Winston's Empire]

Hey Dough - Just wanted to say that I have been missing your ramblings! This is the first time my LOGIN worked on the new site for the message board... Let me know if I missed any other good posts by you since the new site has been up and I will check them out!