Targets – Last year, if you had a .2733 BA, 1,058 Runs, 253 HR, 1,015 RBI’s and 170 stolen bases, you would have garnered 80% of available points in the Overall (and lost to the phenomenal year Jupinka had, but would have been one of the top teams). These were all lows since 2004 with the exception of SB. Still, the “Year of the Pitcher” really did not change the averages that much. Therefore, my targets will be to get between 40 and 45 Runs/RBI’s each week to go along with 10 to 12 homeruns with at .280 BA. I would also like to get 6 to 8 stolen bases each week.
For pitching last year, if you had gotten a 3.587 ERA, 1.247 WHIP, 103 wins, 1,317 strikeouts to go with 86 saves, you would have been in 80%-land. Again, all lows/highs since NFBC inception except saves which, by the way, have been remarkably consistent (84 to 87 would get you 80% each year except 2005). Still, assuming last year will be a bit of an outlier, I am going with targets of 3.850 ERA, 1.285 WHIP, 1,200 to 1,250 strikeouts, 100 wins and 80-85 saves.
As each month of the year roles around, especially when some discernible pattern in my league and overall seems to set in, I may adjust these targets. The risk of course is if I wait too long to separate “trends” from “streaks”, I could put my non-counting stats really at risk.
Week 1 (kind of) – I really think MLB is kind of nutty the way they schedule things. Maybe it is just my hard-wired accountant’s brain, but this three/four day opening week thing kind of sucked. It was an interesting week, though. Strange really as I got production from my catchers (McCann and Montero) with a combined .455 BA, a homerun, seven RBI’s, three runs and even a stolen base (McCann has my early team lead). Braun got off to a good start. I didn’t quite get half weeks stats in any category except RBI’s, but the shortfalls were not too disconcerting.
The pitchers were all over the board. Shields and Oswalt had decent starts with thirteen strikeouts between them. Carrasco and Wandy got shelled (yup, should have listened to the good advice and sat him but instead I placed my faith in the “bad-spring, good-season” myth), but overall my pitching staff got nearly a strikeout per inning pitched and had a K/BB ratio of a little over 2.5:1. Hanrahan even got me two saves. It is early and all this means little, but with Meek on his tail, it was good to see Hanrahan deliver even if he did allow three baserunners in two innings.
Week 2 FAAB – As I got ready for the first dip into the FAAB pool, I had to decide on whom to bail on. It was just last week that we had the draft and I have been one of the more fortunate ones (so far) on the injury front. While there were no players out there that I had to have, a couple peaked my interest so I decided to waive Brandon Inge, 3B, DET (I have three other guys on my roster with 3B eligibility and a fourth in Youk coming soon), so that was a late wasted pick. I may regret the next drop as Brandon Allen, OF, ARI is a good young prospect who will be up soon and whose only competition is brittle Xavier Nady and underwhelming Gerardo Parra. The fifth outfield spot on my team is one of the areas I would like to upgrade on my team (I currently have DeJesus and Francoeur as options) and Allen could be that upgrade in a few weeks, but for right now and with only seven reserve roster spots, I feel his minor league status is a wasted spot.
I may be taking a taste of the tainted Kool-Aid, but reports are that Travis Hafner is healthy enough to play more than four days a week. Given his past power with decent average ability plus the fact that he is still young enough to be a useful DH (33 turning 34 in June), I decided to give him a shot. Batting in Cleveland reeks, but he really has no one to challenge him for too many AB given the current Indians roster contains such notable back-ups like Adam Everett, Shelley Duncan, Travis Buck and Lou Marson. Duncan and Buck will be taking more AB from Kearns, I believe, than Hafner. I made a very middling bid for Hafner ($13) and unless is was an un-needed conditional, no one else expressed an interest.
I also wanted to see if there was a pitcher out there that peaked my interest. I looked first at Jeff Francis. The max I wanted to bid this early on a pitching gamble was only $10 to $15. Given his good start, I did not think that would win Francis (I was right as he was bought for $27). I watched Matt Harrison’s start against Boston on Sunday and was impressed. However, that one start I felt would jack his price up more than I felt it was worth (i.e. I do not think he will repeat much especially when the temperature goes up in Arlington). He went for $79, which was less than I thought it would take to get him. I ended up putting my hopes in my NL East prejudices and Dave Duncan. I won my bid for Kyle Lohse. Like above, unless there was a conditional bid out there, there was no other interest. It is not that I like Lohse. But pitching at home against the Pirates and on the road in Washington, I really think he has a chance to generate two quality starts. If not, he is expendable and besides any potential ERA or WHIP damage, he didn’t cost me much.
Week 2 Plans – The only real change in my offense is I am going to give Hafner a chance. The parks he is playing in coming up the rest of April are not too appetizing (home, Seattle, KC and Minnesota), but it will be nice to give him a bit of a test. I will sit down Loney and go with Youk, Chris Johnson, and Scott Rolen as my cornermen.
Pitching is a little more difficult, though made easier by the improvement in Brian Wilson. I will get two full time closers this week (Wilson and Hanrahan) with another hopefully not too far behind (Francisco). Oswalt (at Atlanta), Ervin Santana (versus Toronto), Shields (at the WhiteSox), Marcum (versus Atlanta), and McClellan (versus Pittsburgh) are all in though none of the match-ups except McClellan’s is very favorable. For the other two, Carrasco (at Seattle) is tempting, but I am going with Lohse and Narveson (versus Atlanta and Chicago) to get me four more starts. I kicked around using Carrasco over Shields, but Shields actually had a very decent start in Chicago one of the two times he faced the WhiteSox last year, so I will stick with him. This is a very dangerous week for me, no matter how I slice it.
[ April 04, 2011, 10:34 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]
