Weekly Blog

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:38 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

I truly hate most major league team managers. They are mostly mental midgets. Take for example Joe Maddon. Yesterday, James Shields didn’t have it. He had give up ten hits and five runs…to the freakin’ Mariners…through seven innings and was down 5-3 going into the bottom of the seventh. The Rays score four and with Shields underperforming, already above 100 pitches, has thrown quite a few innings already this year, and having sat on the bench through the Seattle pitching change as the Rays rallied, there is no way Maddon brings Shields back out, right? But NOOOOOOOOOOOO! From Rotoworld:

James Shields held the Rangers to just four hits in eight scoreless innings of work on Wednesday, improving to 13-10 in a 4-1 Rays victory in Texas. Shields needed 110 pitches to record his 24 outs, so manager Joe Maddon opted not to send him out for the ninth inning for a shot at his 11th complete game and fifth shutout.

Do you think Maddon heard me?

Cocktails and Dreams · Post by **Cocktails and Dreams** » Thu Sep 01, 2011 3:06 am

Maddon not even close to a mental midget.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:21 am

Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

Maddon not even close to a mental midget. True. I was giving him too much credit.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 4:20 am

I have stated very directly before that this "hobby" of ours is a bit of a sickness. As I looked into what moves I wanted to make this week, one of the guys on my team, whom I had picked up a few weeks ago, is now redundant. I have a decent number of MI types on my team given the flexibly of Omar Infante and Jed Lowrie, As such, Gordon Beckham has become too redundant. What makes this evidence of the sickness is my first thought after targeting him for release is "wait till next year on him". We still have 3 1/2 weeks to go and this is definitely not the first time I made a mental note of players who may be good rebound targets for 2012. The wimps who only play fantasy football

have often told me that they do not do baseball because it is too complex and 26 weeks is too much of a grind. In my mind I question 26? Rarely do I not think about fantasy baseball. It is a 52 week hobby for me. And that is a little obsessive. Oh well, it is what it is.

Period 23 Results - I am a "charter member" of our little club and was out in Vegas all eager to get my head handed to me by the likes of Shawn Childs and Rey Diaz that first year in 2004. In that time, I have had some good weeks. However, here it is nearly eight years and over 200 scoring periods later, and I have had my first week where I had better stats than anyone else. While this is a little like being the quickest to hand off the baton in the second leg of a 4x4 relay, I have to say if felt good, especially since my biggest challenge right now is to try and crack the Top 10 overall. In my league, Lindy is running away with it. I have a decent lead over a group of five or so guys trying to win 3rd. Anything can happen, but my focus is on how to move 110.0 league points up to 120.0+ which should get me at least in striking distance of the promised land. That 10.0+ league points needs to translate into about 300+ overall points. As of about a week and a half ago, I was in the low 60's overall. As of today, I am in 36th. Good but not good enough (is it ever good enough?).

For the week, I had a BA of 0.304 with 45 Runs, a whopping 68 RBI's, 8 bags, and 12 HR. Pitching was actually productive as well with a 2.617 ERA, 0.980 WHIP, 5 wins in 9 starts, and my three closers strategy got 5 saves to go with my cumulative team K's of 69.

Hello, God? I would like to order 3 1/2 more weeks like this please? Pretty please?

Period 24 FAAB - As I mentioned, I targeted Gordon Beckham for release. I have great expectations from Beckham, but with Pale Hose soap opera only second to "As the Stomach Turns" in LA with the Dodgers, it may not be until he has a real hitting coach, a manager with his head out of his own back side, and a GM/Owner combo with some idea of stepping back from micro-management. I am looking for an impact bat. Last week, I picked up Smoak, who just came off the DL. This week with Cruz out, I targeted most of my budget for the week on David Murphy whom I hope will get the lions share of the Ranger AB. I won with a $23 bid. The second place bid was only $1, so either I am missing something (quite possibly) or the other owners with bucks left did not see the need. In any regard, I targeted him and got him.

I looked at pitching too, but there really was not much out there. The one most attractive target was not picked up, so I will be moot on who that was as I may still need to bid on him next week. I opted not to change my roster right now. Streaming pitchers is risky and I am satisfied I can put together 8 to 10 starts with my existing roster if necessary.

Period 24 Plans - I have three big questions. 1) Who will be my utility player? 2) Do I use three closers again? 3) If not, who is my seventh starter?

Pitching first. I do not think I will go with three closers for two reasons. Francisco and the Jays start the week with four against Boston, so I am not confident in save opportunities. They of course could show up, but you have to plan. Plus I need strikeouts, which as a category that has surprised me this year. I should finish close to 1,300 strikeouts this year which normally would be enough to get close to the top 20% though I currently sit tied for 196th place. As to which pitchers to use, Shields, Marcum, Oswalt, Ervin Santana, and Wandy Rodriguez are a given. According to latest reports, Felipe Paulino will make his two starts this week at Oakland and at Seattle. He may not get me wins and may hurt my ERA and WHIP, but he has been a steady source of K's. Seventh starter will come from Bailey or Arroyo. Bronson has not been his usual 2nd half stud and is not usually a K-machine, so I will go with Bailey in Colorado. I am hoping for a rebound from the pounding the Cards gave him.

My bats are pretty set. Catchers (McCann and Montero), Corners (Youkilis, Peralta, Hosmer), Middle (Ackley, a surprising Pennington, Hill), and Outfield (Zeus f.k.a. Braun, Victorino, Ethier, Francoeur, and Byrd). That leaves UT. My choices are Smoak, Murphy, and Infante. I also have Garrett Jones and Jed Lowrie, but with Youk back in Boston, and Lee back in Pittsburgh with Ludwick due back Wednesday, neither are guaranteed AB. Both are nice for flexibility, but I need sure sticks.

Infante is playing every day, hitting the ball ok (0.303 with four runs scored and a stolen base last week) while hitting up in the line-up out of the second position. Smoak is alternating between DH and 1B and hitting fifth. Murphy is hitting between sixth and eighth for the Rangers. The Rangers are in Tampa against three tough pitchers, so I think Murphy rides the pine, but can be a nice option this weekend with three at home versus Oakland. Infante has three at home versus the Mets, then three on the road in Pittsburgh. I am very tempted to use him for his runs-scored potential. Infante also has good speed, but rarely uses its potential. Smoak has seven games this week (at the Angels and versus KC). Despite the parks he is playing in, he probably has the best power potential. He will not hit for average, but that is not a spot I can make up ground in as I sit in 1st in my league and 13th overall. Infante (speed, runs scored) versus Smoak (HR, RBI). Smoak has the additional game, so I will probably use him.

For you guys who drafted your football teams this past weekend, good luck. And don't worry about your baseball teams. Just let them go. They will be fine. The rest of us will look out for you!

[ September 05, 2011, 10:22 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Mon Sep 05, 2011 2:42 pm

Congrats on a great week Wayne, I hope your team has a few more in them.

Also, so true what you say about this week being a 52 week obsession. Well, maybe 51. I try to not to think about it too much during the week between Christmas and New Year's. Actually that's when the Forecaster comes out. Strike that, 52 weeks is about right.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 7:28 am

Well, with the college football season and the first week of pro football on tap, my humble request to God must of gotten lost in the extreme volume of sports-related prayers. I had the 87th best week, which is not bad, but not good enough for me to make up enough overall points. The teams in the Top 10 are not cooperating either. I have improved my overall point total by about 127 points (and moved from 47th place to 31st place) since the end of August, but the team in 10th place overall is about 50 points higher over the same time period. In short, the net is not enough to get me over the top. I am running out of runway and one of my tires (Kevin Youkilis) is half flat.

Anything can still happen, but I have a 20+point lead over the four teams battling it out for 3rd place in my league. Confidence is high that I will hold 2nd because I have been able to maintain full-time play (like 330 AB last week), although I am never comfortable until the fat lady sings.

At least things have tightened at the top for the rest of us to watch. KJ Duke had busted a move though Lindy is right on his heals and Frank Cracolice/Ken Magner cannot be ignored. Good luck to all.

At this stage of the season, I start looking at who did what well and why. Take pitching for example. While I am not saying my league was any tougher or easier than any others, I think it is fair to say that my league-mates by and large are quality, experienced fantasy baseball aficionados. Looking at our league stats with only 17 days left until the champ is crowned is a worthwhile exercise.

Pitching strategy can be broken down into the two primary classes, starters and relievers. Relievers, while important and volatile are to me a pretty simple process. What I am looking at now is starters, the more important group in my opinion as they make up the majority of my staff and have the greatest impact on my stats.

The first thing I looked at this year is streaming pitchers. I have looked at my success in streaming pitchers based on their opponents, having two starts, home/away schedule, team strengths, and relative individual pitcher strengths. My conclusion about myself is that this is not a strength of mine. I am little better than a coin toss when I attempt this. Typically I want to build a staff of six guys I want to leave in there week in and week out and limit my streaming to a choice of two or so other starters or going with a third closer. This is the less risky of the available strategies but come at the cost of typically fewer starts than say having fewer “anchor” pitchers and streaming others in and out.

This year in my league so far, the range of different starters used is from 23 to 10 with the average being 17.5. While the pitchers I have used have typically pitched further into games (only one team has fractionally more IP per GS than I have this year and I have the fourth most IP from starters in my league), five teams have more GS than I have to date (I have 205 GS so far for 2011 compared to 220 from the leader). Because my starters went so deep into games on average, the lack of starts has not hurt my K’s (generally the pitchers you could pick up by streaming are not going to have the high strike out potential as those types are gobbled up and held), but it did impact the number of games I had a chance to win.

One of the advantages of not streaming pitchers to gain more starts is that my ERA and WHIP are strong. As a matter of fact, in my league, the teams with the three best ERA’s (mine being the third lowest) have used 16 or fewer starters all year (below the league average). Similarly, the teams with the five lowest WHIPs (mine being fifth) also have used 16 or fewer starters. This of course tells you two things. One, health has generally not been an issue. And second, an emphasis on a larger core of quality pitchers in the draft/FA rather than streaming pitchers SHOULD improve your chances at solid ERA/WHIP/K’s results.

The one place that you may be able to maximize points by streaming pitchers in order to maximize starts is in wins. This is not a given, however. In my league, one team is running away with wins. Due to a ridiculous 48.3% winning percentage of GS to wins, this team is 18 wins ahead of other teams starter wins. As such, this team has only used 14 starters all year. Six of that team's starters have been used for 28 starts which has generated only 8 wins, a 5.4427 ERA, a 1.4881 WHIP, and a sub-par strikeout rate (64% of IP). For my team, I did a little better with the six pitchers I used the fewest times. However, I did encounter a little bad luck, too. My middle tier of three pitchers (the lower six I mention above I used for 19 starts, and the top tier seven for 161 starts) generated 25 starts. Collectively, they averaged pitching into the 7th inning with a 4.0325 ERA, 1.3117 WHIP and a 79.9% strikeout rate. Not great, but not too shabby either. Problem was, while I was getting decent to good ERA/WHIP/K’s from these guys, they only generated FOUR wins. That is a 16% W/GS ratio. No matter who they played for (Cincinnati, Milwaukee, and KC), that is just bad luck. So part of the reason I was not able to challenge for more Win points this year is not fewer start than some, but rather bad luck with getting wins out of quality starts.

Wins are frustrating anyway. There is no way to really control how to get them and usually it is one of the tightest categories. In wins from starters in my league, there are eight teams that currently have between 77 and 84 wins. Still, with the average win to game started ratio being between 38% and 40%, you need to target some way to get at least 225 starts (assuming your target is 90 wins from your starters). That is 8.65 starts per week. Of course, if your core pitchers are predominately from 2011 places like Houston, Seattle, or KC, you have not helped yourself much with wins.

Strikeouts. Another frustrating category for me this year, though I know the best way to improve your chances at scoring the K’s you need. It is a simple product of having enough IP tied to pitchers with at least 75% K/IP potential (you want pitchers with more, just no more than one with less). Done. Just don’t make the mistake I did and “assume” Roy Oswalt would repeat his 2010 numbers (91.2% strikeout ratio to IP) when he hadn’t come close in the five prior years (2005-2009, 75.8%). Between Oswalt, his injuries, and the guy who I had in as his DL replacement (Bailey), I was able to generate on about a 67% K-ratio. IF (don’t you love to hate that word) I had chosen Cain or Grienke over Oswalt, I would probably only have one more point in K’s in my league, but I would have nearly 100 more points in the overall.

So, what did I learn? Not much really, but it affirmed a few things. One, you do not have to stream pitchers to be successful. As a matter of fact, it is more risky to stream pitchers. Two, maximizing your starts will improve your chances at wins, but to do so with seventh tier starters via FA pool is probably not worth the risk. Third, winning the most points in your league in wins (without sacrificing saves) is a product of luck. Not to take anything away from anyone who has done especially well in wins this year, but any win percentage over 40% is strictly a luck factor. And fourth, in a 5x5 league you need at least five and preferably six arms that that are strikeout pitchers (no one with less than 150 K’s per 200 IP and where you can average at least 175 collectively) if you want a chance to get the K’s you need (say 50 a week).

Nothing to it.

[ September 12, 2011, 01:34 PM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

MadCow Sez · Post by **MadCow Sez** » Mon Sep 12, 2011 1:33 pm

Thanks Wayne...I just wish my hitters were as lucky as my pitchers.

Likewhat17 · Post by **Likewhat17** » Tue Sep 13, 2011 2:19 am

Very interesting things to look at Wayne. I decided to do the same and take a brief glance at my starters this year. Thus far, I've had 28 (!) different pitchers start a game for me. They've amassed 220 starts and totaled 81 wins (36.8 win percentage). This may seem around average, but include the fact that I have Justin Verlander, and the rest of the staff becomes very pedestrian. Without Verlander's 22 wins in 31 starts, my starters have only won 59 times in 189 starts, a winning percentage of only 31.2%.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Tue Sep 13, 2011 5:59 am

Originally posted by Likewhat17:

Very interesting things to look at Wayne. I decided to do the same and take a brief glance at my starters this year. Thus far, I've had 28 (!) different pitchers start a game for me. They've amassed 220 starts and totaled 81 wins (36.8 win percentage). This may seem around average, but include the fact that I have Justin Verlander, and the rest of the staff becomes very pedestrian. Without Verlander's 22 wins in 31 starts, my starters have only won 59 times in 189 starts, a winning percentage of only 31.2%. That is working hard for the 81 wins. If you do not mind my asking, how much of your FA budget did you have to commit to the stream of pitchers?

Likewhat17 · Post by **Likewhat17** » Tue Sep 13, 2011 7:11 am

Looking back on it now, I have picked up 20 different SP that have pitched for me this year (and two of them I actually FAAB'd twice).

So 22 total bids on those SP, and I spent a total of $177, or right around $8 per guy.

This collection of waiver wire arms has gone on to start 73 games for my team. They've collected 22 wins, so right at 30% winning percentage.

They've also posted ratios of 4.10/1.33 and struck out 297 in 460 2/3 total innings.

A few of these guys have stuck around, but only 3 of the 20 have made more than 5 starts for my team (Vogelsong, Saunders, Blackburn)

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Wed Sep 14, 2011 2:40 am

Originally posted by Likewhat17:

Looking back on it now, I have picked up 20 different SP that have pitched for me this year (and two of them I actually FAAB'd twice).

So 22 total bids on those SP, and I spent a total of $177, or right around $8 per guy.

This collection of waiver wire arms has gone on to start 73 games for my team. They've collected 22 wins, so right at 30% winning percentage.

They've also posted ratios of 4.10/1.33 and struck out 297 in 460 2/3 total innings.

A few of these guys have stuck around, but only 3 of the 20 have made more than 5 starts for my team (Vogelsong, Saunders, Blackburn) Thanks for the good info. I so far have picked up 8 pitchers for $88 FA bucks. Seven have made it into games (total of 41 GS) and like you their win percentage reeks (13 wins or 31.7%). I have been a little more lucky than you in their other stats (3.694 collective ERA and 1.205 WHIP), so I guess I shouldn't complain. K's have been a problem area for me and these FA guys only chunked in at a 59.7% K rate per IP. I picked up Lohse the first week of the season and used him for 17 starts, Arroyo after the ASB for 8 starts, and Paulino I got fairly early (first week of June) but only have used him for 8 starts so far. The four of the other five I have used from 1 to 3 times. The only guy I haven't used is Huff, who I just picked up, but did not want to use in Texas.

Edwards Kings · Post by **Edwards Kings** » Mon Sep 19, 2011 9:22 am

Chapter - The Last.

Nothing more to write.

It is that time of the year. Not much strategy. Just streaming starts and focusing on players who may actually get more AB. In my league, there is a nail-biter going for 3rd place, but unless the unforeseeable happens, I will finish in 2nd place, and believe it or not, my first money finish.

In the overall, I am still 200+ points out of the top 10 and not much chance of making up 20 points a day over the next 10 days. Still, I am trying my best and putting guys in who are playing. I have been lucky so far with my September numbers as I have been able to cobble together an weekly average of 334 AB over the last three weeks.

Funny how things work out though. No disrespect to my prior league mates, but this year there were more industry guys, guys who have loooooong histories of success in fantasy baseball in general and the NFBC in particular. And this is the year I break through. Chest Rockwell gave me a good luck shout out early and I think I owe it all (except the money...my wife has dibs on that) to him.

In the Auction Championship, I am in a fight for Miss Congeniality (4th place) with several of my league mates. Matter of pride I guess, but I am going to still concentrate very heavily over these next two transaction opportunities.

And finally, in my Live Online DP league, I have been on the hind teet pretty much all year. I never could get it going. Embarrassing really.

Anyway, good luck to all who are still in the hunt. I will be watching a couple of great guys fight it out for the top spot.

Next up, planning for next year...heaven help us!

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Mon Sep 19, 2011 12:33 pm

Great job on your 1st money finish this year Wayne, well deserved. Also a great job on your blog all year long, just like every year. Always an interesting read.

Good luck these last two weeks......and good luck in your impending prep for next year. Yes, heaven help us.