Odds on Winning

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Mar 08, 2004 12:23 pm

My estimates:

200 owners in NFBC draft

75 owners are dead money

Another 50 owners have limited intelligence

That leaves 75 people who have a legit chance of winning the $100,000. Not to sound arrogant

, but I know I'm one of them. Are you?

rotatorcff · Post by **rotatorcff** » Mon Mar 08, 2004 12:35 pm

Wouldn't those owners with limited intelligence necessarily fall into the dead money category?

SoonerC · Post by **SoonerC** » Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:02 pm

I've never concerned myself too much with anybody who tells me how good they are at anything.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:14 pm

Originally posted by rotatorcff:

Wouldn't those owners with limited intelligence necessarily fall into the dead money category?

Nope. It's possible that a few "limited intelligence" owners will get lucky. The dead money owners won't win, no matter what.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:15 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

My estimates:

200 owners in NFBC draft

75 owners are dead money

Another 50 owners have limited intelligence

That leaves 75 people who have a legit chance of winning the $100,000. Not to sound arrogant

, but I know I'm one of them. Are you? Hmmm, 200 owners, = 14 leagues. 75/14 = 5.5

Yeah, I think I can finish in the top 5-6 of my league. A little luck and brilliant drafting by my co-manager at the draft and we could be in the mix.

I'd be disappointed if I finished outside of the top 6 in my own league.

Dave

"Get used to disappointment"

[ March 08, 2004, 07:15 PM: Message edited by: Dyv ]

chimpat · Post by **chimpat** » Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:17 pm

Is the payout still $100,000 with only 200 teams signed up?

BB of the Leaderboard · Post by **BB of the Leaderboard** » Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:31 pm

Originally posted by Gordon Gekko:

My estimates:

200 owners in NFBC draft

75 owners are dead money

Another 50 owners have limited intelligence

That leaves 75 people who have a legit chance of winning the $100,000. Not to sound arrogant

, but I know I'm one of them. Are you? Hey Ghek, I suspect your numbers are about right, but isn't this sort of like the surveys that show that 90% of all drivers rate themselves as "above average?"

B(Above average driver)B

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:33 pm

We are about to find out...

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:38 pm

Originally posted by chimpat:

Is the payout still $100,000 with only 200 teams signed up? I hope so. The $100,000 attracted me to the event. What's worth doing is worth doing for money. Winning $50,000 or so is okay, but after Uncle Sam gets his cut and I reward my staff, I'm left with peanuts.

chimpat · Post by **chimpat** » Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:50 pm

I completely agree Geck....that's what really caught my eye. I just don't remember reading about prize money information if we don't get the 300 entries. Maybe Greg can confirm this one way or the other....I sure hope the 100k would still be available.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Mon Mar 08, 2004 1:55 pm

Originally posted by chimpat:

I completely agree Geck....that's what really caught my eye. I just don't remember reading about prize money information if we don't get the 300 entries. Maybe Greg can confirm this one way or the other....I sure hope the 100k would still be available. Greg continues to post on the "who has entered" thread that new participants are "in the hunt for the $100,000." Seems pretty clear to me that it's 100K.

Leaderboard Sports · Post by **Leaderboard Sports** » Tue Mar 09, 2004 10:23 am

I really hate to admit this but I would have to rate the teams in Chicago as the favorites for the overall prize. To win you have to draft well and be in a league that lets some good players slide a little farther than they should. I don't mean to slight the players in Chicago but due to the Fantasy Sports Trade Conference in Vegas there will be a disproportionate number of experts drafting in Vegas and a few in NY as well. I don't want to throw more credit to experts than they deserve, but when you do something for a living, you're bound to have an extensive knowledge of the subject matter.

There will be experts and Leaderboard members in every league in Vegas. Too many Sharks and not enough Guppies.

I'm counting on Sin City to work it's magic on the Vegas drafters and level the playing field

Once we see all the team rosters after the draft I think we could probably come up with a top 5 favorites.

Maybe we could do an online auction of all the NFBC teams. The owner of the winning team gets the pot.

Cherokee Nation · Post by **Cherokee Nation** » Tue Mar 09, 2004 8:18 pm

not to mention that Vegas has TWO big money league drafts on March 20th. I live 30 minutes from Chicago, but am drafting in Vegas.

Worst Russian Ever · Post by **Worst Russian Ever** » Wed Mar 10, 2004 1:21 am

I've been doing Fantasy baseball since 1982 and dominating my local league.

I've been itching to take on the so called experts, and now my dreams have come true...this is gonna be fun!

Team Herron · Post by **Team Herron** » Wed Mar 10, 2004 3:30 am

I like Leaderboard's auction idea. The team that goes for the most would thus be the odds on favorite. I have to agree that Vegas seems from the outside to have more notable talent, I think you also have a larer pool of entrants than another city.

With 100+ teams in Vegas alone, you could see a league get a disproportionate number of so-called "experts" or a disproportionate number o goof-offs like me.

I am one member that no one has to worry about, but I am sure the other leagues will be loaded with talent.