The Top 20 Teams at the ASB

[Hells Satans]

Player Distribution




Cabrera, Asdrubal SS CLE 7

Ethier, Andre OF LAD NOTE 6

Kimbrel, Craig P ATL 6

Bautista, Jose 3B,OF TOR 5

Brantley, Michael OF CLE 5

Masterson, Justin P CLE 5

Molina, Yadier C STL NOTE 5

Montero, Miguel C ARI NOTE 5

Vogelsong, Ryan P SF 5

Baker, Scott P MIN 4

Beachy, Brandon P ATL NOTE 4

Bedard, Erik P SEA INJ 4

Hamels, Cole P PHI NOTE 4

Izturis, Maicer 2B,3B,SS LAA 4

Joyce, Matt OF TB 4

Kemp, Matt OF LAD NOTE 4

Lind, Adam 1B TOR 4

McLouth, Nate OF ATL 4

Morgan, Nyjer OF MIL 4

Niese, Jonathon P NYM 4

Roberts, Brian 2B BAL INJ 4

Roberts, Ryan 2B,3B,OF ARI 4

Romero, Ricky P TOR NOTE 4

Ross, Tyson P OAK INJ 4

Sanchez, Anibal P FLA 4

Schierholtz, Nate OF SF 4

Shields, James P TB NOTE 4

Torres, Andres OF SF 4

Trumbo, Mark 1B LAA NOTE 4

Verlander, Justin P DET 4

Zimmermann, Jordan P WAS 4

Zobrist, Ben 2B,OF TB 4

Axford, John P MIL 3

Butler, Billy 1B KC 3

Cabrera, Miguel 1B DET 3

Cain, Matt P SF NOTE 3

Fielder, Prince 1B MIL 3

Garcia, Jaime P STL NOTE 3

Gee, Dillon P NYM 3

Gordon, Alex OF KC 3

Granderson, Curtis OF NYY 3

Harang, Aaron P SD NOTE 3

Jones, Chipper 3B ATL 3

Jurrjens, Jair P ATL 3

Kershaw, Clayton P LAD 3

Ludwick, Ryan OF SD 3

Luebke, Cory P SD 3

McClellan, Kyle P STL 3

Pence, Hunter OF HOU 3

Perez, Chris P CLE 3

Rodriguez, Francisco P NYM 3

Rollins, Jimmy SS PHI 3

Santos, Sergio P CHW 3

Smith, Seth OF COL 3

Snider, Travis OF TOR NOTE 3

Young, Michael 1B,2B,3B TEX 3

Ackley, Dustin 2B SEA 2

Adams, Mike P SD 2

Avila, Alex C DET 2

Beckham, Gordon 2B CHW 2

Bell, Heath P SD 2

Bernadina, Roger OF WAS 2

Blackmon, Charlie OF COL INJ 2

Blake, Casey 3B LAD INJ 2

Boesch, Brennan OF DET NOTE 2

Britton, Zach P BAL NOTE 2

Cabrera, Melky OF KC NOTE 2

Capps, Matt P MIN 2

Capuano, Chris P NYM 2

Chacin, Jhoulys P COL 2

Chisenhall, Lonnie 3B CLE 2

Cordero, Francisco P CIN 2

Cruz, Nelson OF TEX 2

Cuddyer, Michael 1B,2B,OF MIN NOTE 2

Damon, Johnny OF TB NOTE 2

d'Arnaud, Chase SS PIT 2

Davis, Chris 1B TEX 2

De La Rosa, Rubby P LAD 2

Desmond, Ian SS WAS 2

Downs, Scott P LAA 2

Duensing, Brian P MIN 2

Ellsbury, Jacoby OF BOS 2

Espinosa, Danny 2B WAS 2

Farnsworth, Kyle P TB 2

Fister, Doug P SEA 2

Floyd, Gavin P CHW 2

Francisco, Frank P TOR 2

Freese, David 3B STL NOTE 2

Furcal, Rafael SS LAD 2

Gallardo, Yovani P MIL 2

Gardner, Brett OF NYY 2

Gordon, Dee SS LAD 2

Greinke, Zack P MIL 2

Gwynn Jr., Tony OF LAD 2

Hafner, Travis UTL CLE 2

Halladay, Roy P PHI NOTE 2

Hanrahan, Joel P PIT NOTE 2

Hernandez, Ramon C CIN 2

Hill, Aaron 2B TOR 2

Hosmer, Eric 1B KC 2

Howard, Ryan 1B PHI 2

Hudson, Orlando 2B SD 2

Hudson, Tim P ATL 2

Huff, Aubrey 1B,OF SF 2

Humber, Philip P CHW 2

Hundley, Nick C SD INJ 2

Hunter, Torii OF LAA NOTE 2

Iannetta, Chris C COL 2

Jackson, Edwin P CHW 2

Jaso, John C TB 2

Jay, Jon OF STL 2

Jeter, Derek SS NYY NOTE 2

Johnson, Kelly 2B ARI NOTE 2

Kendrick, Howie 1B,2B,OF LAA NOTE 2

Kuroda, Hiroki P LAD 2

League, Brandon P SEA 2

Lee, Cliff P PHI NOTE 2

Lee, Derrek 1B BAL 2

Lidge, Brad P PHI INJ 2

Lilly, Ted P LAD NOTE 2

Lincecum, Tim P SF 2

Liriano, Francisco P MIN 2

Lohse, Kyle P STL 2

Lucroy, Jonathan C MIL 2

Marcum, Shaun P MIL 2

Marmol, Carlos P CHC 2

Martinez, Victor C DET 2

Maybin, Cameron OF SD 2

McCann, Brian C ATL NOTE 2

Melancon, Mark P HOU 2

Moreland, Mitch 1B,OF TEX 2

Morrison, Logan OF FLA NOTE 2

Moscoso, Guillermo P OAK 2

Nunez, Eduardo 3B,SS NYY 2

Nunez, Leo P FLA 2

Ogando, Alexi P TEX 2

Olivo, Miguel C SEA 2

Outman, Josh P OAK 2

Parnell, Bobby P NYM 2

Paulino, Felipe P KC 2

Paulino, Ronny C NYM 2

Peralta, Jhonny 3B,SS DET 2

Prado, Martin 2B,3B,OF ATL INJ 2

Quentin, Carlos OF CHW 2

Ramirez, Alexei SS CHW NOTE 2

Ramirez, Hanley SS FLA NOTE 2

Ramos, Wilson C WAS 2

Reynolds, Mark 3B BAL NOTE 2

Rodriguez, Alex 3B NYY NOTE 2

Salas, Fernando P STL 2

Sanchez, Gaby 1B FLA 2

Sanchez, Jonathan P SF 2

Schafer, Jordan OF ATL 2

Scherzer, Max P DET 2

Scott, Luke 1B,OF BAL INJ 2

Soriano, Alfonso OF CHC 2

Stanton, Mike OF FLA 2

Storen, Drew P WAS 2

Suzuki, Ichiro OF SEA 2

Thames, Eric OF TOR NOTE 2

Thole, Josh C NYM 2

Tulowitzki, Troy SS COL 2

Turner, Justin 2B,3B NYM 2

Upton, B.J. OF TB 2

Venters, Jonny P ATL 2

Walden, Jordan P LAA 2

Weaver, Jered P LAA NOTE 2

Wigginton, Ty 1B,2B,3B,OF COL 2

Wilson, C.J. P TEX 2

Wright, David 3B NYM INJ 2

Zimmerman, Ryan 3B WAS 2

Zito, Barry P SF 2

Abreu, Bobby OF LAA 1

Allen, Brandon OF ARI 1

Anderson, Brett P OAK INJ 1

Andrus, Elvis SS TEX NOTE 1

Arrieta, Jake P BAL 1

Aybar, Erick SS LAA NOTE 1

Bailey, Andrew P OAK 1

Bailey, Homer P CIN 1

Barney, Darwin 2B,SS CHC 1

Bastardo, Antonio P PHI 1

Beltran, Carlos OF NYM NOTE 1

Berkman, Lance 1B,OF STL NOTE 1

Betancourt, Yuniesky SS MIL 1

Billingsley, Chad P LAD NOTE 1

Bonifacio, Emilio 3B,SS,OF FLA NOTE 1

Bourgeois, Jason OF HOU INJ 1

Bourn, Michael OF HOU 1

Braun, Ryan OF MIL 1

Britton, Zach P BAL NOTE 1

Brown, Domonic OF PHI NOTE 1

Broxton, Jonathan P LAD INJ 1

Buehrle, Mark P CHW NOTE 1

Bumgarner, Madison P SF 1

Burnett, A.J. P NYY 1

Cabrera, Orlando 2B,SS CLE 1

Cano, Robinson 2B NYY NOTE 1

Carpenter, Chris P STL 1

Carrasco, Carlos P CLE 1

Casilla, Alexi 2B,SS MIN 1

Cecil, Brett P TOR NOTE 1

Chatwood, Tyler P LAA 1

Choo, Shin-Soo OF CLE INJ 1

Cobb, Alex P TB 1

Craig, Allen OF STL INJ 1

Crisp, Coco OF OAK 1

Crow, Aaron P KC 1

Davis, Ike 1B NYM INJ 1

Davis, Rajai OF TOR NOTE 1

Dickey, R.A. P NYM 1

Drew, Stephen SS ARI 1

Duda, Lucas 1B,OF NYM 1

Escobar, Alcides SS KC 1

Escobar, Yunel SS TOR 1

Francoeur, Jeff OF KC 1

Freeman, Freddie 1B ATL 1

Gamel, Mat 3B MIL 1

Garcia, Freddy P NYY 1

Getz, Chris 2B KC 1

Gonzalez, Adrian 1B BOS NOTE 1

Gonzalez, Carlos OF COL NOTE 1

Gonzalez, Gio P OAK NOTE 1

Gorzelanny, Tom P WAS 1

Gregg, Kevin P BAL 1

Guerra, Javy P LAD 1

Gutierrez, Franklin OF SEA 1

Hammel, Jason P COL NOTE 1

Hanson, Tommy P ATL 1

Harden, Rich P OAK 1

Harrison, Matt P TEX NOTE 1

Hart, Corey OF MIL 1

Headley, Chase 3B SD 1

Helton, Todd 1B COL NOTE 1

Hernandez, David P ARI 1

Hernandez, Felix P SEA NOTE 1

Holliday, Matt OF STL NOTE 1

Hudson, Daniel P ARI 1

Hughes, Luke 1B,2B,3B MIN NOTE 1

Ibanez, Raul OF PHI NOTE 1

Jennings, Desmond OF TB 1

Johnson, Chris 3B HOU 1

Johnson, Josh P FLA INJ 1

Jones, Adam OF BAL 1

Jones, Garrett 1B,OF PIT 1

Karstens, Jeff P PIT 1

Kendrick, Kyle P PHI 1

Kennedy, Ian P ARI 1

Keppinger, Jeff 2B HOU 1

Konerko, Paul 1B CHW 1

Kotchman, Casey 1B TB 1

Kubel, Jason OF MIN INJ 1

Kuo, Hong-Chih P LAD 1

Lackey, John P BOS NOTE 1

LaPorta, Matt 1B CLE 1

Latos, Mat P SD 1

Leake, Mike P CIN 1

Lee, Carlos 1B,OF HOU 1

Lillibridge, Brent 2B,OF CHW 1

Longoria, Evan 3B TB 1

Lowe, Derek P ATL 1

Markakis, Nick OF BAL 1

Martin, Russell C NYY 1

McCarthy, Brandon P OAK 1

McDonald, James P PIT 1

Miller, Andrew P BOS 1

Montero, Jesus C NYY 1

Morrow, Brandon P TOR NOTE 1

Morse, Michael 1B,OF WAS NOTE 1

Moseley, Dustin P SD 1

Napoli, Mike C,1B TEX NOTE 1

Narveson, Chris P MIL 1

Nathan, Joe P MIN 1

Nix, Laynce OF WAS 1

Norris, Bud P HOU 1

Ordonez, Magglio OF DET NOTE 1

Ortiz, David UTL BOS NOTE 1

Overbay, Lyle 1B PIT 1

Pagan, Angel OF NYM 1

Pelfrey, Mike P NYM 1

Pena, Carlos 1B CHC 1

Phillips, Brandon 2B CIN 1

Pineda, Michael P SEA 1

Polanco, Placido 3B PHI 1

Posada, Jorge C NYY 1

Ramirez, Aramis 3B CHC NOTE 1

Rasmus, Colby OF STL 1

Reddick, Josh OF BOS 1

Revere, Ben OF MIN 1

Reyes, Jose SS NYM INJ 1

Rivera, Mariano P NYY 1

Rodriguez, Wandy P HOU 1

Ruiz, Carlos C PHI NOTE 1

Sabathia, CC P NYY NOTE 1

Santana, Carlos C,1B CLE 1

Santana, Ervin P LAA 1

Santana, Johan P NYM INJ 1

Simon, Alfredo P BAL 1

Sizemore, Grady OF CLE 1

Sizemore, Scott 2B,3B OAK 1

Smoak, Justin 1B SEA 1

Soria, Joakim P KC 1

Soto, Geovany C CHC 1

Span, Denard OF MIN INJ 1

Street, Huston P COL 1

Stubbs, Drew OF CIN NOTE 1

Stutes, Michael P PHI 1

Tabata, Jose OF PIT INJ 1

Teixeira, Mark 1B NYY 1

Thome, Jim UTL MIN 1

Tomlin, Josh P CLE 1

Torrealba, Yorvit C TEX 1

Upton, Justin OF ARI 1

Utley, Chase 2B PHI NOTE 1

Valverde, Jose P DET NOTE 1

Victorino, Shane OF PHI INJ 1

Villanueva, Carlos P TOR 1

Volquez, Edinson P CIN 1

Votto, Joey 1B CIN NOTE 1

Walker, Neil 2B PIT NOTE 1

Weeks, Jemile 2B OAK 1

Wolf, Randy P MIL NOTE 1

Worley, Vance P PHI 1

Youkilis, Kevin 1B,3B BOS NOTE 1

Young, Chris OF ARI 1

[Hells Satans]

Appearance of Top 45 ADP in Top 20 Teams



code: #1 Albert Pujols (1B, StL) 0

#2 Hanley Ramirez (SS, Fla) 2

#3 Troy Tulowitzki (SS, Col) 2

#4 Miguel Cabrera (1B, Det) 2

#5 Joey Votto (1B, Cin) 1

#6 Carlos Gonzalez (LF, Col) 1

#7 Carl Crawford (LF, Bos) 0

#8 Ryan Braun (LF, Mil) 1

#9 Evan Longoria (3B, TB) 1

#10 Robinson Cano (2B, NYY) 1

#11 Adrian Gonzalez (1B, Bos) 1

#12 David Wright (3B, NYM) 2

#13 Alex Rodriguez (3B, NYY) 2

#14 Mark Teixeira (1B, NYY) 1

#15 Josh Hamilton (LF, Tex) 0

#16 Roy Halladay (SP, Phi) 2

#17 Prince Fielder (1B, Mil) 3

#18 Matt Holliday (LF, StL) 1

#19 Matt Kemp (CF, LAD) 4

#20 Ryan Zimmerman (3B, Was) 2

#21 Ryan Howard (1B, Phi) 2

#22 Kevin Youkilis (3B, Bos) 1

#23 Jose Reyes (SS, NYM) 1

#24 Dustin Pedroia (2B, Bos) 0

#25 Nelson Cruz (RF, Tex) 2

#26 Tim Lincecum (SP, SF) 2

#27 Andrew McCutchen (CF, Pit) 0

#28 Joe Mauer (C, Min) 0

#29 Felix Hernandez (SP, Sea) 1

#30 Ian Kinsler (2B, Tex) 0

#31 Jose Bautista (RF, Tor) 5

#32 Shin-Soo Choo (RF, Cle) 1

#33 Buster Posey (C, SF) 0

#34 Victor Martinez (DH, Det) 2

#35 Adam Dunn (DH, ChW) 0

#36 Justin Upton (RF, Ari) 1

#37 Jon Lester (SP, Bos) 0

#38 Dan Uggla (2B, Atl) 0

#39 Cliff Lee (SP, Phi) 2

#40 Jacoby Ellsbury (CF, Bos) 2

#41 Clayton Kershaw (SP, LAD) 3

#42 Alex Rios (CF, ChW) 0

#43 Justin Verlander (SP, Det) 4

#44 CC Sabathia (SP, NYY) 1

#45 Jason Heyward (RF, Atl) 0

[/QUOTE]

[Hells Satans]

Draft Position of Top 20 Teams



14

7

4

11

6

7

11

8

11

15

3

13

10

2

3

14

11

7

13

4

[Hells Satans]

Somewhat interesting. I suppose the good news (but not surprising) is that the many of the players that appear with the most frequency are the ones most likely to regress: Asdrubal Cabrera (already starting to see his HR/FB normalize), Masterson, Vogelsong, Sanchez, Shields, etc.



Ethier is a weird name to be at the top.



Who knew Nate McLouth was so important?



You better be right if you draft catchers high that, you know, actually catch. No team in the Top 20 has Mauer or Posey.



Could someone with Pujols make a run?



Thought there would be alot more teams with Berkman.



4 teams with Jordan Zimmerman, who probably has 8 or so starts left



2 with Arod (ouch) but 2 with Wright (may get some relief)



Picking Jose Bautista was kinda important



No one can survive Adam Dunn



We may need 4th Round Reversal next year

[Paul Gromek]

I'm a Jordan Zimmerman guy...it sucks that he will get shut down but I knew that going in



my collar is starting to get a little tight

[Hells Satans]

Actually, I suppose it's possible that Posey was drafted and cut by one of the top 20, so I shouldn't say that

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

Somewhat interesting. I suppose the good news (but not surprising) is that the many of the players that appear with the most frequency are the ones most likely to regress: Asdrubal Cabrera (already starting to see his HR/FB normalize), Masterson, Vogelsong, Sanchez, Shields, etc.

Why do you think Shields will regress? He has tossed a lot of innings (5th YTD), but has thrown more than 110 pitches only twice in 19 games, so workload is not that big of an issue? Strike outs are up compared to his career norms and hits per IP are down certainly, but is this a regression waiting to happen or a 29 year old pitcher maturing?



Between now and September 9th, the Rays have the Yanks seven times (four in Tampa) and the BoSox six times (three in Tampa), and one three game series in Arlington, so the schedule is far from crushing. After September 9th, there are home/home series with both the BoSox and the Yanks, so that will not be a fun stretch.



He seems to be finally pitching to his underlying numbers.



[ July 13, 2011, 05:57 AM: Message edited by: Edwards Kings ]

[Hells Satans]

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Hells Satans:

Somewhat interesting. I suppose the good news (but not surprising) is that the many of the players that appear with the most frequency are the ones most likely to regress: Asdrubal Cabrera (already starting to see his HR/FB normalize), Masterson, Vogelsong, Sanchez, Shields, etc.

Why do you think Shields will regress? He has tossed a lot of innings (5th YTD), but has thrown more than 110 pitches only twice in 19 games, so workload is not that big of an issue? Strike outs are up compared to his career norms and hits per IP are down certainly, but is this a regression waiting to happen or a 29 year old pitcher maturing?



Between now and September 9th, the Rays have the Yanks seven times (four in Tampa) and the BoSox six times (three in Tampa), and one three game series in Arlington, so the schedule is far from crushing. After September 9th, there are home/home series with both the BoSox and the Yanks, so that will not be a fun stretch.



He seems to be finally pitching to his underlying numbers. [/QUOTE]Probably best to ignore my comments, as they are usually incorrect. Shields is a very good pitcher, so don't read too much into regression. That said, his BABIP is .257 (45 points below career average and about the same for league average this year), his strand rate is 81.1%, and his HRA numbers are 1/2 of what they were last year.



The HRA numbers might stick because he's throwing more ground balls, but it's very unlikely the strand rate or the BABIP hold up. Then again, over only 13-14 starts anything can happen and regression doesn't really work in such small sample sizes. I'd peg him for an ERA around 3.30 and a 1.2 WHIP with great K's. That's still pretty awesome.

[TParsons]

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

Somewhat interesting. I suppose the good news (but not surprising) is that the many of the players that appear with the most frequency are the ones most likely to regress: Asdrubal Cabrera (already starting to see his HR/FB normalize), Masterson, Vogelsong, Sanchez, Shields, etc.



Ethier is a weird name to be at the top.



Who knew Nate McLouth was so important?



You better be right if you draft catchers high that, you know, actually catch. No team in the Top 20 has Mauer or Posey.



Could someone with Pujols make a run?



Thought there would be alot more teams with Berkman.



4 teams with Jordan Zimmerman, who probably has 8 or so starts left



2 with Arod (ouch) but 2 with Wright (may get some relief)



Picking Jose Bautista was kinda important



No one can survive Adam Dunn



We may need 4th Round Reversal next year I would venture to guess McLouth was just a shot in the dark WW pickup by most of the teams when he was on the DL.



Agree with you on most of the others. I expect Shields to still be good, but not as good as he's been in the first half. Sanchez is the guy I expect to see an almost identical 2nd half from. His last couple starts have been awful, which have kind of tilted his numbers a little. He's at 3.58/1.23. Not far from where I see him at the end of the yr. The Ks are the biggest surprise so far from him, imo.

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

quote:Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

quote:Originally posted by Hells Satans:

Somewhat interesting. I suppose the good news (but not surprising) is that the many of the players that appear with the most frequency are the ones most likely to regress: Asdrubal Cabrera (already starting to see his HR/FB normalize), Masterson, Vogelsong, Sanchez, Shields, etc.

Why do you think Shields will regress? He has tossed a lot of innings (5th YTD), but has thrown more than 110 pitches only twice in 19 games, so workload is not that big of an issue? Strike outs are up compared to his career norms and hits per IP are down certainly, but is this a regression waiting to happen or a 29 year old pitcher maturing?



Between now and September 9th, the Rays have the Yanks seven times (four in Tampa) and the BoSox six times (three in Tampa), and one three game series in Arlington, so the schedule is far from crushing. After September 9th, there are home/home series with both the BoSox and the Yanks, so that will not be a fun stretch.



He seems to be finally pitching to his underlying numbers. [/QUOTE]Probably best to ignore my comments, as they are usually incorrect. Shields is a very good pitcher, so don't read too much into regression. That said, his BABIP is .257 (45 points below career average and about the same for league average this year), his strand rate is 81.1%, and his HRA numbers are 1/2 of what they were last year.



The HRA numbers might stick because he's throwing more ground balls, but it's very unlikely the strand rate or the BABIP hold up. Then again, over only 13-14 starts anything can happen and regression doesn't really work in such small sample sizes. I'd peg him for an ERA around 3.30 and a 1.2 WHIP with great K's. That's still pretty awesome. [/QUOTE]Good points. That strand rate is surely at risk of normalizing which should lead to more earned runs.

[Cocktails and Dreams]

The problem with these stats like BABIP and so forth are that they dont take into account stuff that can only be measure by things like eye tests. If a guy has more late movement then less balls are going to be hit hard and the BABIP will be lower. His stuff has been better this year than ever before. And by stuff, that means location also. He has been masterful at putting pitches wherever he wants. Why? I don't know but it is. I am in the camp of hoping it doesn't continue. But to say that it is a fluke because BABIP is this or that is not giving credit where credit is due. What he has done has not been lucky.

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

The problem with these stats like BABIP and so forth are that they dont take into account stuff that can only be measure by things like eye tests. If a guy has more late movement then less balls are going to be hit hard and the BABIP will be lower. His stuff has been better this year than ever before. And by stuff, that means location also. He has been masterful at putting pitches wherever he wants. Why? I don't know but it is. I am in the camp of hoping it doesn't continue. But to say that it is a fluke because BABIP is this or that is not giving credit where credit is due. What he has done has not been lucky. Question -- do Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Jon Lester have good stuff, the kind that breaks late, causing weak contact and a low BABIP?



The "beauty" of BABIP, and the part that makes it so hard to intuitively believe is the concept transcends the "quality" of the pitcher. it doesn't matter is the pitcher was Pedro Martinez or Pedro Feliciano, the year to year BABIP of everyone generally ranges from .290-.310.



To wit, 2007-2011:



Halladay: .306, .290, .302, .304, .309

Lincecum: .283, .304, .282, .310, .297

Felix: .333, .314, .282, .310, .297

Lee: .300, .301, .315, .287, .284

Lester: .279, .297, .313, .289, .280



What Shields is doing is not ALL LUCK, not by any means. What defines the better pitchers are more strikeouts, fewer walks and fewer homers. All three of these are improved over last season, K/9 and HR/9 on target to be career bests.



But, he is also enjoying some good fortune along with some excellent pitching.



For the record, I am one of the few numerish disciples that believes that the better pitchers can in fact exhibit some control over their BABIP and have some numbers to help prove it, but at the end of the day, the variance incurred via a batted ball masks the small impact the better pitchers have, as evidenced by the numbers above.

[Hells Satans]

Great points. Shields has definitely been better. His contact rates are way way down this year, so he's missing alot more bats. One of the mistakes numberish people make is to assume than regression on things like BABIP will necessarily occur during the course of a season, but that's not always the case. We're talking about pretty small sample sizes. That said, there's no reason to expect Shields to maintain his currently absurdly low BABIP on ground balls.



My favorite BABIP example is 1999 Pedro, which is probably the greatest season any pitcher has had in the last 40 years, and maybe ever.



23-4, 2.07 ERA, 13.2 K/9, 1.56 BB/9 and a .323 BABIP - .50 points higher than his carer BABIP average. Imagine if he just had a "normal" BABIP that year?

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

One of the mistakes numberish people make is to assume than regression on things like BABIP will necessarily occur during the course of a season, but that's not always the case. We're talking about pretty small sample sizes. That said, there's no reason to expect Shields to maintain his currently absurdly low BABIP on ground balls.



I think what many assume is the old gambler's fallacy - the odds of a coin flip being heads is always 50/50, regardless of the previous flips.



If a guy has a BABIP of .250 for half the season, the expectation should not be .350 for the second half. It should be .300, for a season ending mark around .275.



But there is random variation. If 16 people flip a coin 4 times, probability dictates one flips 4 heads and one flips 4 tails.



The implication here is luck does not HAVE to even out in a small sample.



if the 16 people flipped a coin 1000 times, the results would be pretty darned close to 500/500 for all 16.

[Cocktails and Dreams]

I believe that the average speed a ball leaves a bat against a pitcher is directly correlated to the BABIP. I am not a believer that all balls off the bat are created equal and a pitcher is simply lucky or unlucky that they fall in or find holes if put in play.

[ToddZ]

Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

I believe that the average speed a ball leaves a bat against a pitcher is directly correlated to the BABIP. I am not a believer that all balls off the bat are created equal and a pitcher is simply lucky or unlucky that they fall in or find holes if put in play. That's the great thing about research, it tells us what is actually happening so we don't need to rely on intuition or beliefs.



This is actually being studied now and the results are a bit surprising. It is not my work so I am not comfortable sharing publicly the entire study(ies), but I have seen the following in a couple of different places and that is hard hit balls and soft hit balls lead to more hits than medium hit balls. So perhaps IF a pitcher can indeed induce weaker contact, that may in fact lead to more hits.

[Edwards Kings]

Originally posted by ToddZ:

quote:Originally posted by Cocktails and Dreams:

I believe that the average speed a ball leaves a bat against a pitcher is directly correlated to the BABIP. I am not a believer that all balls off the bat are created equal and a pitcher is simply lucky or unlucky that they fall in or find holes if put in play. That's the great thing about research, it tells us what is actually happening so we don't need to rely on intuition or beliefs.



This is actually being studied now and the results are a bit surprising. It is not my work so I am not comfortable sharing publicly the entire study(ies), but I have seen the following in a couple of different places and that is hard hit balls and soft hit balls lead to more hits than medium hit balls. So perhaps IF a pitcher can indeed induce weaker contact, that may in fact lead to more hits. [/QUOTE]Interesting, but logical to me.



Since soft hit balls like bunts often lead to hits, it does not surprise me that the medium speed balls in play induce the fewest hits.



When I played (poorly), we categorized them as "screamers" (hard hit) such as "Nice get...that was a screamer!", "leaners" (medium that you barely had to move to get to) "what are you grinning about, that was a piece of cheese leaner" and "groaners" (soft like bunts or swinging bunts) and I cannot print about what we said when we had to go for groaners we were not expecting.