Ellsbury

Cowboy Joe · Post by **Cowboy Joe** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 4:39 am

I had him penciled in for 8 HRs in 575 ABs. Obviously, I missed.

Did anyone see his power spike coming?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 5:46 am

The potential has been there. If someone were to suggest they thought Ellsbury might hit in the teens and eventually reach 20 once or twice in his career, that would be justified, even if the history coming into the season did not paint the picture objectively. Of course, the numbers were tainted last season as Ellsbury was injured and when he was playing, he underperformed what was expected.

Hard to believe that this time last year, Ellsbury was playing the role of goat, his heart being questioned.

Coming into the season, I expected Ellsbury to hit ninth. Goofy as this may seem, his success likely played a part in Crawford's struggles. Obviously, the injuries did not help, but Crawford being bounced around the order, especially the lower part had to impact him mentally. It is real easy for us to say "just play", but these guys are people and his psyche just had to have been messed up.

Raskol · Post by **Raskol** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:40 am

I really think that the team will have to ink Crawford into the 2-hole behind Ellsbury next season. That, of course, means that Pedroia needs to find a new spot and I'm not sure where he is best suited if not at the top.

That's why the incoming manager will make good money.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 8:41 am

Joe Maddon actually said a year or two ago that he thought Ellsbury could grow into a 25 HR Hitter, but I always thought if he got to 15-20 with that speed, it would be HUGE!

Yes last year was a bad year filled with injuries for Jacoby, but the talent was always there.

In 2009 he went .301ave 94r 8hr 60rbi 70sb's and ranked 2nd in total points according to NFBC Player Stats, but his ADP was only around 19 in 2010 if my notes from that year are right.

This year he went .321ave 119r 32hr 105rbi 39sb's and again ranked 2nd in total points according to NFBC Player stats after having a ADP of about 66 in the 2011 drafts.

To see him go 3rd Overall in the First 2012 NFBC draft wasn't shocking and I think he will stay in the Top 5 until Opening Day 2012.

As a side note, I have really liked Ellsbury for a long time and got him in the 4th Round in 3 of my 5 leagues in 2011 - However, I didn't cash in any of those leagues

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:13 am

15-20 HRs? Sure. 32? No way. He had hit 29 HRs in his previous 2500 ML and minor league plate appearances. There's no way to predict that. He isn't even a guy that had hit alot of 2Bs before.

His FB% was up slightly, but almost all of the increase was due to his HR/FB ratio, which jumped from about 6.5% for his career to 16.7% for the year and to around 23% after the ASB. 23% is Bautista/Stanton territory.

Is that sustainable? No way. That said, he's a 1st rounder if he hits 20 HRs and he certainly can do that.

Hells Satans · Post by **Hells Satans** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:17 am

Also worth pointing out I guess that Ellsbury is not as young as you might think. He's 28 (a few weeks younger than Pedroia, who feels like he's been around forever), so it makes sense that he's breaking out and having a career year. I don't think you can assume it gets better, though I don't think you can assume it will get significantly worse either. Very good chance this was his peak year.

Winston's Empire · Post by **Winston's Empire** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 9:53 am

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

Also worth pointing out I guess that Ellsbury is not as young as you might think. He's 28 (a few weeks younger than Pedroia, who feels like he's been around forever), so it makes sense that he's breaking out and having a career year. I don't think you can assume it gets better, though I don't think you can assume it will get significantly worse either. Very good chance this was his peak year. Very good points... I will feel comfortable riding him until contract time! We all know being a Scott Boris client he is going to work to get PAID!!!!!

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:05 am

Originally posted by Hells Satans:

Also worth pointing out I guess that Ellsbury is not as young as you might think. He's 28 (a few weeks younger than Pedroia, who feels like he's been around forever), so it makes sense that he's breaking out and having a career year. I don't think you can assume it gets better, though I don't think you can assume it will get significantly worse either. Very good chance this was his peak year. Also worth noting is that while their ages are similar, Ellsbury still gets carded, while Pedroia wonders why he gets AARP junk mail.

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Wed Oct 05, 2011 10:18 am

pedroia is in better commercials as well

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Thu Oct 06, 2011 9:16 am

The most intriguing aspect of Ellsbury is that NOBODY hit more home runs than Jacoby Ellsbury after the All Star break.

Jose Bautista followers are licking their chops.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Oct 11, 2011 7:11 am

Originally posted by :

Anyone see Ellsbury turning into Sizemore for reasons id rather not state...(HGH) hehe No.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Tue Oct 11, 2011 7:12 am

Beware the ides of Mauer.

jim.s · Post by **jim.s** » Tue Oct 11, 2011 11:36 am

The answer is David DiDonato and his "bustouts" in the Diamond. There was a message board thread in April where David predicted power from Ellsbury (I was skepical) and I got him 3rd place (and 5 points from winning).

jim.s · Post by **jim.s** » Tue Oct 11, 2011 11:37 am

correction

... it got him third place ...