All Time Draft Thread

Nevadaman · Post by **Nevadaman** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:21 am

Does that mean there is crying in football?

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:22 am

Well, guys made the decision before me as I have been waffling between those two arms and....

Tyrus Raymond "Judy" Cobb -- 1911

BA .420 (591 AB)

HR 8

RBI 127

R 147

SB 83

I'll have the sheet ready soon.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:23 am

Originally posted by Nevadaman:

Does that mean there is crying in football? YES

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:25 am

Originally posted by ToddZ:

Well, guys made the decision before me as I have been waffling between those two arms and....

Tyrus Raymond "Judy" Cobb -- 1911

BA .420 (591 AB)

HR 8

RBI 127

R 147

SB 83

I'll have the sheet ready soon. nice pick todd. IMO, cobb was the last of the ELITE guys. now the rest of us get crumbs.

is it too late to change my kds

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:26 am

9-Russel Wyatt on the clock!

10-Jon Stadtmueller on deck!

TOXIC ASSETS · Post by **TOXIC ASSETS** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:35 am

Interesting how pitching is flying off the board in this one. In a regular draft - it's mostly hitting in the early picks.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:43 am

Through 1.08

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:45 am

With the caveat that this is only "value in a vacuum" and the true value of a player is not determined until the draft is over, the top 3 hitters and top 5 pitchers from my sheets are taken - not saying these were my top 8

I'm not sure if this is a good or bad thing

On one hand, maybe I have a decent handle on how to rank

On the other hand, so do you guys

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:55 am

Originally posted by :

Buncha guys left with 30 wins? check

Buncha guys left who hit .380+? check

Buncha guys left who hit 50+ homers? check

Best "crumbs" ever? check

good point!

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 8:59 am

Originally posted by TOXIC ASSETS:

Interesting how pitching is flying off the board in this one. In a regular draft - it's mostly hitting in the early picks. Several reasons for this...

In a regular draft, there is (perceived?) more injury risk with pitchers as compared to hitters

In-season, more useful pitching emanates from free agent pool as compared to hitting

With 2 ratio categories, there is the subset of middle relievers that can be used to help manage pitching

Judicious in-season "streaming" of pitchers with favorable matchups helps manage pitching

These are all pretty much known by anyone participating or following this draft.

The somewhat esoteric reason is whether knowingly or not, the way we all rank/value players has roots in how auction values are determined. It may be intuitive for veterans, but at some point, one's opinions were at least influenced by the conventional "dollar value."

The problem is, dollar values are calculated assigning somewhere between 65 and 70 percent of the available budget to hitting, whereas it should be 50 percent.

So if someone says at the end of the year, Roy Halladay "earned" $30, it is really more like

$30 x .5 /31 = $48

and if someone said Evan Longoria earned $30, that is really more like

$30 x.5 / .69 = $22

To TRULY rank players according to value in a vacuum in this draft, whatever the "currency" is, it should be evenly distributed between hitters and pitchers.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 9:02 am

Originally posted by :

quote: I also argued anything you lost powerwise by taking Cobb would be fairly easy to make up for later in a draft where you can get 40 homeruns after the 10th round. Big fan of this pick.

I'll have the sheet ready soon. [/QUOTE]Thanks - without giving too much away, the deal sealer for me was the insane runs and especially RBI that came with the 83 SB. Time will tell if I can catch up in HR or if it will matter.

[ October 22, 2011, 03:03 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

TOXIC ASSETS · Post by **TOXIC ASSETS** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 9:05 am

Good stuff Todd, makes a lot of sense. Year after year I pick starting pitching in round 1....sometimes it works (2009), sometimes it doesn't (2010 and 2011). I pretty much know that I'm going to have my choice of a stud P in the middle of the first round because everyone else will take hitting.. You make a good point about the injury risk, since these seasons have been played (in some cases we are past them by 100 years!), the injury risk is zero.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 9:18 am

Originally posted by :

Todd- just a couple of questions/thoughts for the spreadsheet.

On the accumulated stats/standings page, it doesn't list innings pitched or AB's. I think this would be a nice feature, especially with an IP requirement. Also, it would be nice later on in the draft to easily know how many hitters/pitchers are contributing to the stats for each team. I know we can gather this info from the other sheets, but it would be a nice feature. Thanks. All set - download again and check on the category totals table, far right.

FWIW, you can go to the roster page to eyeball what positions everyone needs, etc.

While I cannot promise to add everything asked (my private joke to Greg and Tom is the NFBC won't be satisfied until a hand comes out and fondles your balls while you are doing FAAB moves) I will try to incorporate whatever is asked, so long as I can figure out how to do it.

Along those lines, part of my hope is that this tracker may catch on and be useful for the regular slow drafts, so these suggestions may help flesh that out as well.

[ October 22, 2011, 03:51 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 10:29 am

This pick comes down to one of two players for me, one pitcher and one hitter.

When I found out that I had the number nine pick, I thought the ratio of picks before me would be 3H/5P or maybe 4H/4P. I had an idea of two players that I would choose from and after thinking about it for 3 days, I decided on my pick. But something funny happened on the way to my pick, a hitter that I didn’t think would be available is still there. So now what do I do.

I have created two sets of rankings; each of the two players I am looking at leads one of the two lists.

I’ve decided to go with the pitcher. I’m taking the dominating strikeouts and WHiP.

What do you say about a guy that “only” won 165 games as a starter but was an easy first ballot Hall of Fame inductee.

Sandy Koufax was The most dominant pitcher of the 1960’s. He was a 3-time Cy Young Award winner at a time when there was only one award covering both leagues. He was the MVP of the National League in 1963.

My Pick is Sandy Koufax -1965

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sandy_Koufax

W-26

ERA-2.04

WHiP-0.856

SV-2

K-382

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 10:39 am

Originally posted by Navel Lint:

But something funny happened on the way to my pick, a hitter that I didn’t think would be available is still there. So now what do I do.

did the fact a pitcher run has ensued help cause u to pass on the hitter?

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 10:41 am

10-Jon Stadtmueller - ON THE CLOCK!

11-John Pausma - ON DECK!

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 11:10 am

Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Navel Lint:

But something funny happened on the way to my pick, a hitter that I didn’t think would be available is still there. So now what do I do.

did the fact a pitcher run has ensued help cause u to pass on the hitter? [/QUOTE]No. I was thinking pitcher with the 9 pick. As I said in my original post, I thought at least 4 and maybe 5 pitchers would go in the first 8 picks. It's just that a hitter that I didn't think I had a chance at turned out to be available.

I would have been happy picking any one of the two guys, I just think that Koufax is more valuable than the hitter (you and other may disagree), but it was very close.

Gekko · Post by **Gekko** » Sat Oct 22, 2011 11:20 am

Originally posted by Navel Lint:

quote:Originally posted by Gekko:

quote:Originally posted by Navel Lint:

But something funny happened on the way to my pick, a hitter that I didn’t think would be available is still there. So now what do I do.

did the fact a pitcher run has ensued help cause u to pass on the hitter? [/QUOTE]No. I was thinking pitcher with the 9 pick. As I said in my original post, I thought at least 4 and maybe 5 pitchers would go in the first 8 picks. It's just that a hitter that I didn't think I had a chance at turned out to be available.

I would have been happy picking any one of the two guys, I just think that Koufax is more valuable than the hitter (you and other may disagree), but it was very close. [/QUOTE]koufax was a fine pick. big time k guy with solid ratios.