All Time Draft Thread

Suburban Strugglers · Post by **Suburban Strugglers** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:43 pm

Naval,

I have felt the way you feel that anyone of us can win this thing. There are so many rounds and as you said we all have players ranked in different spots and different ways of thinking about going after certain position or best player out there at the time. Also the blind rounds as well. So I think this thing can be won by any of us. Or at least that is how I feel.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:45 pm

Originally posted by Navel Lint:

Coming into this draft, my initial thinking was that the guy with the first pick would have the best chance of winning. I mean, we are all working with known stats, and so the owner with the first pick would get the “best” player, owner number two would get the second best, and so on….. If this were fantasy football where FANTASY POINTS is the common currency between positions, I would agree, but then so would everybody.

Without giving too much away....

1. The rankings we all came up with, quantitatively or intuitively are all in a vacuum, Ultimately, the value of a player revolves around the construct of your team. For example, if you have opted to ignore of at least not focus on steals or batting average, Cobb is further down, or even off your list. if you are forgoing pitching ratios and going for wins, Ks and saves, then your rankings will look different.

2. We all have to decide whether to apply a positional adjustment and how much.

3. We all have to decide how we want to approach hitting and pitching.

So even though the stats are static, all of our rankings are different and we are all employing varying strategies which further alters rankings.

At the end of the day, it will come down to which drafter best did or did not account for positional differences, timed their hitting and pitching picks best and was able to get a feel for the flow of the draft to best pull off the above.

This is a rather simplistic metaphor, whoever goes first in checkers or chess should have an advantage, but the other person can still win if they overcome that initial advantage with superior strategy and game theory.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:55 pm

Originally posted by :

A player drafting at the end of the first round is likely to get a "worse" player but they also get first crack in the second round. It should balance itself out the same as a normal draft.if you put a static point value on all of the players based on whatever black box system you want, where all of the categories are rolled into one value and then give out the players by "taking one off the top", the #1 pick has an advantage that IS NOT balanced over the course of the draft, here or in a regular draft. This is in fact the reason for 3RR in football.

if you graph these round by round static values, the early rounds ALWAYS have a steeper slope from first to last.

That said, the beauty of roto baseball is the hitting versus pitching dynamic along with the internal balances with the categories within hitting and pitching.

Then, of course, in real drafts, the fact that the end of the season rankings barely resemble the preseason ADP.

[ October 23, 2011, 11:57 PM: Message edited by: ToddZ ]

Suburban Strugglers · Post by **Suburban Strugglers** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:56 pm

Well said Todd. You put it the way I would have liked to have put it. We will see in the end who did the best job with a strategy and rankings.

The Fool on the Hill · Post by **The Fool on the Hill** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 5:57 pm

"A player drafting at the end of the first round is likely to get a "worse" player but they also get first crack in the second round. It should balance itself out the same as a normal draft."

Except this isn't a normal draft, so #1 in 1st round also gets #1 in the final (23rd) round. If there were no blind rounds, it might be a disadvantage to go early in the final round, but that's not the case. That being said, I think whoever has the best strategy will win out in the end.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 6:14 pm

i won't belabor this point, but the value slope is true year after year. Different players fill the spots, but the nature of a sum-zero system forces this sort of thing, even in this ATD draft.

Money · Post by **Money** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 6:15 pm

I've only been around for a couple of years, but this is easily the most entertaining and informative thread ever. This is like reading Doughboys stuff and getting it over and over and over, you never ever get tired of it.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Sun Oct 23, 2011 6:28 pm

Originally posted by :

[QUOTE]I expect something like that has even more relevance in a draft like this where you have a much better idea who the top performers really are. Maybe on paper

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:20 am

[ October 24, 2011, 06:21 AM: Message edited by: Glenneration X ]

Glenneration X · Post by **Glenneration X** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 12:21 am

As expected, the run on pitching in the first round has been replaced by an even longer run on hitting. I again find myself facing the prospects of grabbing a player that at best can keep me within striking range in each category but with ground to make up in all or instead going for a player that will put me in a dominant position in one category but won't keep me as close in the others. The only difference being that this time, the categories affected will be on the hitting side. In the first round I decided on the latter course in choosing Chesbro over Alexander. If I follow this strategy again for hitting, I will have an edge in two categories over every other drafter, but will be chasing 8 other categories the remaining 21 rounds. Like Chesbro for pitching, I believe there's a hitter still available whose overall stats make that a viable strategy due to the strength in one category but the still strong enough stats in the others. I've decided to follow this route once again and have faith in my ability to make up ground where necessary.

Siince I've pretty much decided on this course since the turn, my choice is a much easier one than the Chesbro/Alexander one that I actually made while typing.

The category I believe I'm creating an edge with.....home runs. The player.......

Mr. Giant Head Himself, Barry Bonds 2001

BA - .328

R - 129

HR - 73

RBI - 137

SB - 13

Gentlemen, my availability will be extremely limited today through Wednesday for the reason I explained earlier. I'll check in as often as possible and at minimum each morning and evening. Please be patient however if there is a short delay. Thanks for understanding.

I'd also like to say that I love this draft. As fantasy sports often does, it's acting as a great escape for me. Thanks Shawn, great job creating this.

[ October 24, 2011, 06:24 AM: Message edited by: Glenneration X ]

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 1:36 am

Through 2.10

Suburban Strugglers · Post by **Suburban Strugglers** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:34 am

Sorry for the delay in the pick guys. I am at school but have a break right now. After picking Mathewson in the first round there where 4 hitters that I targeted that I thought might be here when I picked. Two of them are gone in Larry Walker who I loved, great pick at 15 and Barry Bonds who went right before I did.

Leaving me two guys to pick from. This was close as one guy had two seasons that I could just not pick between and the other guy had a clear cut season that I loved.

My pick is The Yankee Clipper, Joe DiMaggio.

1937 - .346 average / 46 HR / 151 R / 167 RBI / 3 S

How can you go wrong with a guy who was with Marilyn Monroe

Suburban Strugglers · Post by **Suburban Strugglers** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:48 am

While Joe DiMaggio is known most for his amazing hitting streak of 56 games in 1941. Many people do not know that after his streak ended, he started a 17 game hitting the streak the very next day. He safely hit in 73 out of 74 games and if not for two great back handed stops by then Indians third basemen Ken Keltner in game 57 he would have had a even more amazing 74 game hitting streak.

Before Joe DiMaggio the hitting streak record was 44 games by Wee Willie Keeler in 1897.

Since Joe DiMaggio the man to come closest to his streak was Pete Rose in 1978 with a 44 game hitting streak. No one else in history has ever had even a 50 game hitting streak and only 5 other players have had even a 40 plus game hitting streak.

In total there have been 55 streaks of 30 plus games. Truly showing how amazing the streak actually was.

Suburban Strugglers · Post by **Suburban Strugglers** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:53 am

Here is a link to the list of the 55 hitting streaks of 30 games or more.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hitting_streak

Dub · Post by **Dub** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 4:58 am

Originally posted by Money:

I've only been around for a couple of years, but this is easily the most entertaining and informative thread ever. This is like reading Doughboys stuff and getting it over and over and over, you never ever get tired of it. understatement

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 5:20 am

Originally posted by Suburban Strugglers:

While Joe DiMaggio is known most for his amazing hitting streak of 56 games in 1941. Many people do not know that after his streak ended, he started a 17 game hitting the streak the very next day. He safely hit in 73 out of 74 games and if not for two great back handed stops by then Indians third basemen Ken Keltner in game 57 he would have had a even more amazing 74 game hitting streak.

Before Joe DiMaggio the hitting streak record was 44 games by Wee Willie Keeler in 1897.

Since Joe DiMaggio the man to come closest to his streak was Pete Rose in 1978 with a 44 game hitting streak. No one else in history has ever had even a 50 game hitting streak and only 5 other players have had even a 40 plus game hitting streak.

In total there have been 55 streaks of 30 plus games. Truly showing how amazing the streak actually was. Amazingly, the 56 game streak wasn’t even DiMaggio’s best.

What’s that you say;…… that of course it’s his best because it’s the major league record.

Well, you would be right; it is the Major League record. But 8 years earlier in 1933, DiMaggio had a hitting streak of 61 games as a 19 year old playing for the San Francisco Seals of the Pacific Coast League.

The guy was just a great hitter with a lifetime .325 avg

Suburban Strugglers · Post by **Suburban Strugglers** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 5:27 am

61 game hitting streak at 19 years old is also an amazing feat. As you said he was one of the greatest pure hitters in baseball history

Navel Lint · Post by **Navel Lint** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 5:39 am

More DiMaggio Stuff®

During the period of Joe DiMaggio’s Career: 1936-1951

He was #1 in HR’s

He was #1 in RBI

He was #1 in Runs

He was “only” 3rd in Average

……….Oh yeah! He put those numbers up while missing all of three prime years during his career (1943-44-45) because of WWII. He enlisted in the Army and was a Sergeant.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 6:07 am

Not to mention that DiMaggio married not one, but two Hollywood starlets.

Like most of his teammates, they found him to be selfish, neat to a fault, and aloof.

Consistency was truly his game. Although he did lead in home runs through his playing career, he never led in home runs for a short stretch.

For example, during the Franklin Roosevelt years, Jimmie Foxx led baseball in home runs.

During the Truman years, it was Ralph Kiner.

Ask most players who played during this era, who was the best player though, and there were only two answers.

Ted Williams or Joe DiMaggio.

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 6:19 am

By the way, Ruth led baseball in home runs through three different presidencies.

Bonds never did.

Timing for Bonds and short termed Presidential stays in the White House for Ruth are the reasons.

ToddZ · Post by **ToddZ** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 6:23 am

Originally posted by Suburban Strugglers:

61 game hitting streak at 19 years old is also an amazing feat. As you said he was one of the greatest pure hitters in baseball history And d-bags like me would be buzzkilling it, saying how lucky he was

DOUGHBOYS · Post by **DOUGHBOYS** » Mon Oct 24, 2011 6:53 am

Just one more add on Joltin' Joe.

When he broke Wee Willie's hit record at 45, DiMaggio had accrued 67 hits during his streak.

Through the 44 games of his hit streak.

Keeler had 88 hits during his streak.

Dang, just one more thing...

When DiMaggio played the day that he would tie Keelers record, Yankee Stadium was packed with over 52,000 fans.

When Maris hit his 61st home run on the last day of the regular season in 1961, just over 23,000 fans were there to watch.