MDC-ADP question

Atlas · Post by **Atlas** » Sun Feb 10, 2008 6:54 am

I did a NFBC mock on 2/7 and in that draft Albert was taken one and Johan number two.

Yet the ADP report does not reflect this in the

"earliest" column.

Am I misinterpreting the report, or is the validity suspect?

HAUSBURGER · Post by **HAUSBURGER** » Sun Feb 10, 2008 7:03 am

I just looked at the adp section and under the Yahoo style it shows that Albert Pujols earliest was #1 and under Johan Santana earliest is #2.

Looks to me that the draft you were involved with was named with nfbc but rankings based with Yahoo scoring.

Thats the way it looks to me because no others have Pujols and Santana with an earliest, except Yahoo style.

Geoffrey Stein · Post by **Geoffrey Stein** » Sun Feb 10, 2008 7:51 am

Originally posted by Atlas:

I did a NFBC mock on 2/7 and in that draft Albert was taken one and Johan number two.

Yet the ADP report does not reflect this in the

"earliest" column.

Am I misinterpreting the report, or is the validity suspect? Not every draft makes it into the ADP report.

We remove a set number of outliers from each end, highest and lowest, and only count drafts that have a certain percentage of live, human picks.

The draft you participated in probably fell into the black hole.

Richie · Post by **Richie** » Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:07 am

Geoff,

your last answer was interesting to me as I did not know you eliminate some drafts from ADP. You said you eliminate some drafts without a certain amt of live humans. Can you give me some details on what you include. I have discounted some ADP results in my mind because I see so many drafts without real people and now you seem to say I should put more credence in them.

Captain Hook · Post by **Captain Hook** » Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:35 am

Bottom line for all the questioners here is to only look at the NFBC ADPs on MDC - even better the ones from the satellite leagues if you are participating in those.

Geoffrey Stein · Post by **Geoffrey Stein** » Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:47 am

Originally posted by Richie:

Geoff,

your last answer was interesting to me as I did not know you eliminate some drafts from ADP. You said you eliminate some drafts without a certain amt of live humans. Can you give me some details on what you include. I have discounted some ADP results in my mind because I see so many drafts without real people and now you seem to say I should put more credence in them. I don't have the specific numbers on me, but as we get closer to the season and we hold more drafts, only those mocks with something like 75 percent or more of human picks are included in the ADP report.

If you look at the NFBC scoring set right now, there are only 19 drafts. One of the main reasons for that is because a lot of people leave in the late rounds and cause that draft to fall into the black hole of nothingness.

Gordon Gekko · Post by **Gordon Gekko** » Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:51 am

I think mdc adp is a GREAT foundation to finding the true adp. People in early nfbc satellite league have no proven alternative.

Atlas · Post by **Atlas** » Sun Feb 10, 2008 4:09 pm

Originally posted by Captain Hook:

Bottom line for all the questioners here is to only look at the NFBC ADPs on MDC - even better the ones from the satellite leagues if you are participating in those. The particular one I particpated in was advertised as NFBC (although less than half human) and the first two choices were, obviously live/human choices which would have been interesting to factor into the numbers as they were "legit" choices.

I guess my question becomes how many of those have been discounted and skews the numbers.

Atlas · Post by **Atlas** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:41 pm

Originally posted by Geoffrey Stein:

quote:Originally posted by Richie:

Geoff,

your last answer was interesting to me as I did not know you eliminate some drafts from ADP. You said you eliminate some drafts without a certain amt of live humans. Can you give me some details on what you include. I have discounted some ADP results in my mind because I see so many drafts without real people and now you seem to say I should put more credence in them. I don't have the specific numbers on me, but as we get closer to the season and we hold more drafts, only those mocks with something like 75 percent or more of human picks are included in the ADP report.

If you look at the NFBC scoring set right now, there are only 19 drafts. One of the main reasons for that is because a lot of people leave in the late rounds and cause that draft to fall into the black hole of nothingness. [/QUOTE]Okay, that all makes sense to me.

But I have another observation/question if you're still out there, Geoff.

Currently you list the latest draft position for ARod as #2. Yet no one else has an earliest of #1?

What happened there?

That is, if ARod went #2 in some draft, someone had to go #1, right? Yet I couldn't find anyone with a #1 earliest listed.

Atlas · Post by **Atlas** » Fri Feb 15, 2008 2:44 pm

I probably should have specified that I was looking at the NFBC results for the prior post.

Geoffrey Stein · Post by **Geoffrey Stein** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 1:01 am

Originally posted by Atlas:

quote:Originally posted by Geoffrey Stein:

quote:Originally posted by Richie:

Geoff,

your last answer was interesting to me as I did not know you eliminate some drafts from ADP. You said you eliminate some drafts without a certain amt of live humans. Can you give me some details on what you include. I have discounted some ADP results in my mind because I see so many drafts without real people and now you seem to say I should put more credence in them. I don't have the specific numbers on me, but as we get closer to the season and we hold more drafts, only those mocks with something like 75 percent or more of human picks are included in the ADP report.

If you look at the NFBC scoring set right now, there are only 19 drafts. One of the main reasons for that is because a lot of people leave in the late rounds and cause that draft to fall into the black hole of nothingness. [/QUOTE]Okay, that all makes sense to me.

But I have another observation/question if you're still out there, Geoff.

Currently you list the latest draft position for ARod as #2. Yet no one else has an earliest of #1?

What happened there?

That is, if ARod went #2 in some draft, someone had to go #1, right? Yet I couldn't find anyone with a #1 earliest listed. [/QUOTE]Now you're dealing with the outliers. While A-Rod has gone second enough to have that show as the latest, whoever went first overall -- more than one person, obviously -- had that pick eliminated because it was one of their outlier selections.

Atlas · Post by **Atlas** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 1:43 am

Originally posted by Geoffrey Stein:

quote:Originally posted by Atlas:

quote:Originally posted by Geoffrey Stein:

quote:Originally posted by Richie:

Geoff,

your last answer was interesting to me as I did not know you eliminate some drafts from ADP. You said you eliminate some drafts without a certain amt of live humans. Can you give me some details on what you include. I have discounted some ADP results in my mind because I see so many drafts without real people and now you seem to say I should put more credence in them. I don't have the specific numbers on me, but as we get closer to the season and we hold more drafts, only those mocks with something like 75 percent or more of human picks are included in the ADP report.

If you look at the NFBC scoring set right now, there are only 19 drafts. One of the main reasons for that is because a lot of people leave in the late rounds and cause that draft to fall into the black hole of nothingness. [/QUOTE]Okay, that all makes sense to me.

But I have another observation/question if you're still out there, Geoff.

Currently you list the latest draft position for ARod as #2. Yet no one else has an earliest of #1?

What happened there?

That is, if ARod went #2 in some draft, someone had to go #1, right? Yet I couldn't find anyone with a #1 earliest listed. [/QUOTE]Now you're dealing with the outliers. While A-Rod has gone second enough to have that show as the latest, whoever went first overall -- more than one person, obviously -- had that pick eliminated because it was one of their outlier selections. [/QUOTE]Geoff

Thanks for bearing with me.

I'm not sure I know what you mean by "outlier"

Do you mean to say someone skewed the numbers by taking, say, Mike Napoli first and you eliminated that pick?

Geoffrey Stein · Post by **Geoffrey Stein** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 2:54 am

Originally posted by Atlas:

quote:Originally posted by Geoffrey Stein:

quote:Originally posted by Atlas:

quote:Originally posted by Geoffrey Stein:

quote:Originally posted by Richie:

Geoff,

your last answer was interesting to me as I did not know you eliminate some drafts from ADP. You said you eliminate some drafts without a certain amt of live humans. Can you give me some details on what you include. I have discounted some ADP results in my mind because I see so many drafts without real people and now you seem to say I should put more credence in them. I don't have the specific numbers on me, but as we get closer to the season and we hold more drafts, only those mocks with something like 75 percent or more of human picks are included in the ADP report.

If you look at the NFBC scoring set right now, there are only 19 drafts. One of the main reasons for that is because a lot of people leave in the late rounds and cause that draft to fall into the black hole of nothingness. [/QUOTE]Okay, that all makes sense to me.

But I have another observation/question if you're still out there, Geoff.

Currently you list the latest draft position for ARod as #2. Yet no one else has an earliest of #1?

What happened there?

That is, if ARod went #2 in some draft, someone had to go #1, right? Yet I couldn't find anyone with a #1 earliest listed. [/QUOTE]Now you're dealing with the outliers. While A-Rod has gone second enough to have that show as the latest, whoever went first overall -- more than one person, obviously -- had that pick eliminated because it was one of their outlier selections. [/QUOTE]Geoff

Thanks for bearing with me.

I'm not sure I know what you mean by "outlier"

Do you mean to say someone skewed the numbers by taking, say, Mike Napoli first and you eliminated that pick? [/QUOTE]Yes, correct. To make sure the numbers are accurate, we eliminate a certain number of a player's earliest and latest selections.

EliGrimmett · Post by **EliGrimmett** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 7:28 am

Just to be certain - you won't be eliminating any out-lier picks for the satellite league ADP's, correct?

Geoffrey Stein · Post by **Geoffrey Stein** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 6:54 pm

Originally posted by EliGrimmett:

Just to be certain - you won't be eliminating any out-lier picks for the satellite league ADP's, correct? We will not prune any of the satellite ADP. Every pick of every draft will be included.

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Sat Feb 16, 2008 7:48 pm

Anybody ever notice how Napoli is everyone's favorite punching bag?