#1 Pick.....other than AROD??

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:25 am

Rollins over Reyes or Hanley? You afraid of Hanley's surgery and Reyes' lack of power or what?

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 6:48 am

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

Rollins over Reyes or Hanley? You afraid of Hanley's surgery and Reyes' lack of power or what? I just see Rollins as a solid, experienced pro. I don't see any risk. He stole 27 in the 2nd half, hits closer to .300 most of the time (as opposed to Reyes Avg lower, even hitting 253 2nd half...seems he sacrificed avg for more pop.)

Hanley may repeat his numbers without Miggy in Fla...but I doubt it. His numbers are freaking impressive...but limited track record, and removal of the teams "cleanup" hitter could reduce his output. His SB could go up...how much fear do Uggla and Hermida strike into pitchers?

Give me Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard.

Another NL MVP???

~Lance

Top Dawg · Post by **Top Dawg** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 8:27 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

quote:Originally posted by Less than Dave:

Rollins over Reyes or Hanley? You afraid of Hanley's surgery and Reyes' lack of power or what? I just see Rollins as a solid, experienced pro. I don't see any risk. He stole 27 in the 2nd half, hits closer to .300 most of the time (as opposed to Reyes Avg lower, even hitting 253 2nd half...seems he sacrificed avg for more pop.)

Hanley may repeat his numbers without Miggy in Fla...but I doubt it. His numbers are freaking impressive...but limited track record, and removal of the teams "cleanup" hitter could reduce his output. His SB could go up...how much fear do Uggla and Hermida strike into pitchers?

Give me Rollins, Victorino, Utley, Howard.

Another NL MVP???

~Lance [/QUOTE]I think most see A-Rod #1, its the next few that can move all over. I agree about Hanley and Reyes each with some ???'s - Love your take on Rollins and have toyed with him and Wright with my pick 3 when my satelite drafts in March. Not sure I want a 14HR .280 hitter even if he steals 75. Thoughts on Rollins/Wright at 3?

Pete

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 10:48 am

ok. well here's what I think about question marks...

I think people overrate the whole "proven track record" thing when it comes to guys who have put up TWO great years back-to-back. Hanley Ramirez was a HIGHLY touted, 5-tool stud who was always expected to excel.. so when he does, I see no reason to think he will regress. If you wanna cite his surgery, or the lack of Cabrera in the lineup (although I don't think that drops him that much) fine, but Hanley's skills are NOT regressing. I mean, how many years of producing do you need to see before they "don't have question marks" to you? Let's look at Rollins.. until 2006 the guy never hit more than 14 HR in a season.. then he jumps to 25 for one year and 30 the next. To me, that raises more "question marks" than Hanley doing extremely well in his first 2 years. You guys have David Wright as a top 5 pick and he was a 1st rounder last year despite only being in his 3rd year last year... so didn't he have those "question marks" when he was drafted 1st round last year? Great players like Wright and Hanley aren't going to regress... they may have an off year, but nothing you could accurately predict.. there's no reason to predict lesser numbers without justified reason (such as surgery or something maybe).

Dawg: I'd rate Wright as lower than Hanley, Reyes, and possibly Rollins just due to the scarcity at SS (very top heavy with little depth beyond) and the extreme depth at 3B this year I think. With that said I think Wright is the safer pick this year and 2nd best in overall fantasy value (in a healthy year) next to Hanley.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 10:55 am

What if they bat Hanley 3rd?

No protection, and maybe the bases are clogged to limit SB's. ...and that darn surgery.

~Lance

NorCalAtlFan · Post by **NorCalAtlFan** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 10:56 am

Those are great points Dave. I still like Rollins a bit more than Reyes, but you've sold me on Hanley

rkulaski · Post by **rkulaski** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 11:39 am

Originally posted by sportsbettingman:

What if they bat Hanley 3rd?

No protection, and maybe the bases are clogged to limit SB's. ...and that darn surgery.

~Lance In regards to Hanley,

With M Cabrera gone:

If Hanley bats lead off, he will likely see a slight drop off in runs scored.

If the Marlins drop him to 3rd, then I think he could drop 10 SB (at the worst) but I guess he could make that up with an increase in RBIs (if anyone can get on base consistently in front of him)

His shoulder injury doesn't change his value for me on draft day. I'd be more concerned about Pujols' injury than Hanley and think Pujols will be drafted all over the place in the 1st rd on march 15th.

[ February 18, 2008, 05:40 PM: Message edited by: Hitless ]

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 3:00 pm

I wouldn't draft Pujols in the first 2 rounds... and I'm totally serious. He will not be on any of my teams. You do not potentially waste a 1st round pick on a guy with that amount of risk.. it's draft suicide.

As for Rollins over Reyes, I got no beef with that... they are about equal average-wise, run-wise.. Rollins has the edge in HR and RBI, while Reyes has a pretty sizeable edge in SB. My only concerns would be that Rollins goes back to 15-20 HR, but then, Reyes could just as easily go back to 60 SB. Either way, they are both very very good and both behind Hanley.

As for the Marlins, keep in mind, this is a young team. Also keep in mind, when a team looks like it's not going to have any source of offense, guys always emerge. And remember Soriano on the Nationals? Everyone thought he would have his worst year ever.. he had his BEST year ever instead.

Hermida seemed to break out in the second half, he's always had the talent and finally started putting it together. Mike Jacobs has power and I think only injuries have held him back so far. Josh WIllingham can provide decent power as well. Dan Uggla is another guy who has some pop and can drive in runs. Who knows what you get from Cameron Maybin and Dallas MacPherson, but this lineup really isn't so bad. We're not talking about the Giants or the Cards here. I think Hanley will be fine.

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 3:04 pm

Originally posted by Less than Dave:

I wouldn't draft Pujols in the first 2 rounds... and I'm totally serious. He will not be on any of my teams. You do not potentially waste a 1st round pick on a guy with that amount of risk.. it's draft suicide.

Finally, somebody said it. I'll take him if he slips to the 4th round.

Less than Dave · Post by **Less than Dave** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 3:09 pm

hahahhahaha... I MIGHT take him in the fourth. I think the earliest I'd take him would be there.

King of Queens · Post by **King of Queens** » Mon Feb 18, 2008 3:10 pm

Originally posted by KJ Duke:

quote:Originally posted by Less than Dave:

I wouldn't draft Pujols in the first 2 rounds... and I'm totally serious. He will not be on any of my teams. You do not potentially waste a 1st round pick on a guy with that amount of risk.. it's draft suicide.

Finally, somebody said it. I'll take him if he slips to the 4th round.

[/QUOTE]Great, because I'm not taking him until the 8th round!

Hobo Zeke · Post by **Hobo Zeke** » Tue Feb 19, 2008 3:23 am

Pujols will not be on any of my teams.

Not because I will not take him, but because there will always be someone willing to gamble.

BE my guest. It's not that bad a risk/reward.