Most UNDER/OVER-VALUED Player Predictions...

KJ Duke · Post by **KJ Duke** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:49 am

Originally posted by Edwards Kings:

Just to toss my two cents in (and we all know what two cents are worth) and as mentioned, it is only over/under valued depending on what round someone is taken:

Overvalued Hitter

Marcus Giles (yes, I am an Atlanta fan and he is a great "dirt" kind of player, but it takes a toll on his body)

agreed, had him last yr and his aggressive play led to him missing half the yr

Scott Podsednik (steals were at such a great premium in my league...One category player with just as much chance at 40 steals which is still not bad as 70 but oh that average)

40 or 70 is nice value, I have him in the high 50s, defin not a one-category player, a bit of pop esp in Chi, and he'll score 100 runs

Undervalued

Sean Green (If he hits close to 40 which is a possibility in my humble opinion, he will have a first round year)

agreed again, I was hoping he would fall to me late 5th rd, just missed him

Jose Vidro (Remember when people used to talk a LOT about Vidro...it could happen again...Number 2 overall second baseman maybe?)

And yes, I drafted both of the undervalued hitters!

Overvalued

Ben Sheets (yes he is the real deal, but his back and is not real happy with management...remember Randy Johnson when he was not happy in Seattle!)

Oliver Perez (I think he is the real deal, too, but a 24 year old pitcher playing for the Pirates is risky)

but he'll strike out a ton more than anyone else you can get in the 5th round with a good era and whip[

Both of these are great pitchers, but with enough quesitons about them not to be consensus second rounders.

Undervalued

Kelvim Escobar (Yes, I drafted him too and I know he is also not the picture of health, but I think he was just not shown enough love in most drafts I saw in Chicago)

Javier Vazquez (One I did not draft..surprise! If he keeps the HR's down... yes, I know he is in Arizona...could be a mini-Johnson in the desert). he won't strike out 250 which is what makes Randy so valuable, and his era was what? about double RJ's last year ... that is a huge stretch

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 4:50 am

Hey KJ

Lee and Crawford are a nice combo I had pick13 and knew Pods would not come to me at Pick #7in 5th My 1st 4 picks were Soriano Cabrera Young Pods and agree pods will have the same if not more runs SBs a push Avg Crawford by 25 points Hrs crawford by a 5 or so

Marty

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:36 am

Hey Big Fish

These stats should justify value of Pods at 4 vs Crawford in 1st Dont get me wrong Crawford is a solid player but thread is about under valued vs over valued players Also Pod is not a career 250-260 hitter as you stated

Crawford 2002 AAA 297 59 52 7 26

Pods 2002 AAA 279 63 61 9 35

Crawford Counting 259 abs in 2002 Career AVG 283

Pods Career AVG 276

Of course Crawford is the better player and would love to have him Just think he is over valued where as Pods most likely went in Rds 4 and 5 Not 6-8 as you think Not much of a difference between the 2 and Pods is now in AL at best hitters park in AL He might have more HRS than Crawford Dont know why you think Crawford is gonna hit 25 Hrs unless you read that rag BB weekly which projects him as a future 30 HR star Crawford would be great in a keeper League I actually have him in one that I have been doing for 15 years. I hope all the Crawford owners get what they project though I see Pods leading BB in SBs this year With a 244 avg last year He still had 85 runs on a bad team and of course the 70 sbs 275 avg should equate to 110 runs with 65 sbs

Marty

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:17 am

Minor Leagues: 2763 AB, .265 AVG/.343 OBP/.347 SLG, .690 OPS, 22 HR, 269 RBI, 404 Runs, 190/18 SB/CS (410/324 K/BB

Hey Marty. Look above. Thos are Podsednik's career numbers in the minors. Then look at 2002 and 2004 numbers. 2003 is the outlier my friend.

To me, that kind of performance is what put him on the waiver wire in the first place in 2001 when Mil picked him up. That being said, he obviously has value, he steals, plays for a good offense in the one hole, etc. But lets not get ridiculous here and expect miracles.

I still dont believe he is worth in the 4th round. He could kill you in BA and will not get you the desired returns of other valuable players available in this round.

2003 was an aberration and for those looking for the repeat, good luck. I believe Crawford in the second and Podsednik in the 7th is about right.

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:20 am

Career: 1224 AB, .275 AVG/.343 OBP/.400 SLG, .743 OPS, 22 HR, 105 RBI,188 Runs, 113/23 SB/CS (203/118 K/BB)

Marty. These are his Major league numbers, including his 2003, which is obvious to be the outlier season for Pods.

Again, good player, but in the 4th by no means a steal or good buy. No Way.

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:25 am

He will hit for more HR's and should muster some more runs, but first you have to get on base, something he is woeful at last year. His OBP is the concern for me in the bigs. His minor leaue OBP is by far acceptable. However, if he only bats .260 he is not worth the 4th round pick. Again, just my opinion.

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:28 am

Look at the K:BB ratio. Almost 2:1 in bigs. Something I would expect from Dunn but not Pods. Needs to work on getting on base.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:40 am

Originally posted by JAR:

What is so dang hard about throwing out 8 names for the fun of it. Do we alawys ahve to be so analitical about everything? Actually, it's not that at all - it's the fact I'm hoping some of my sleepers' current owners drop them and I can pick them up. I'd love to lecture you on how brilliant I am (or how much I read) but the fact is I'm trying to win first.

Having people tell you that everyone they took is a sleeper and everyone you took sucks isn't much fun to me. Sorry, the exciting part would be delving into the FA pool for value and I'm not going to do that right now

Dyv

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:52 am

POD IN THE 4TH OR CRAWFORD IN THE 1ST.

It's not even close ,theirs more of a chance their numbers will be the same than these insane comments.Crawford 20 to 25 homers 65 to 75 steals and a 300 avg. Why does crawford jump from his career of 11 to 20. I could say the same as pod career high is 12. Why cant he hit 20. Big Wish why do you think everybody in the nfbc took him in rounds 3to 5, because thats his true value, not the 6 to 8 which is ridiculous.The facts are only one has hit over 300 , thats pod. Only one has stolen between 65 and 75 , that too is pod ,70.Theirs more of a chance that pod could be a 2nd round pick next year then your prediction of crawford.Ozzy has already given pod the green light , expect 280 avg 14 hr 100 runs 70 sb. eddiejag

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 10:54 am

I forgot their 3 year bavg crawford 283.

pod 275.

JAR · Post by **JAR** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:07 am

Originally posted by Dyv:

quote:Originally posted by JAR:

What is so dang hard about throwing out 8 names for the fun of it. Do we alawys ahve to be so analitical about everything? Actually, it's not that at all - it's the fact I'm hoping some of my sleepers' current owners drop them and I can pick them up. I'd love to lecture you on how brilliant I am (or how much I read) but the fact is I'm trying to win first.

Having people tell you that everyone they took is a sleeper and everyone you took sucks isn't much fun to me. Sorry, the exciting part would be delving into the FA pool for value and I'm not going to do that right now

Dyv [/QUOTE]LOL got cha... well wouldn't it be the perfect time for a misdirection then?

Tell reverse the over/under rated players.. and owners will keep the bad players and toss the good ones

bjoak · Post by **bjoak** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:39 am

Do we alawys ahve to be so analitical about everything? Yes. And you spelled 'have' wrong.

Sco Pod will hit more homeruns (in Chicago esp.) and steal more bases than Crawford. He underhit while Crawford overhit last year. They will be closer this year with Crawford edging him by 10 or 20 points, but still, do you want Jim Thome at 50 homers and a .280 average or some other guy who bats .260 and hits 80 homers. Who cares about average at that point? You can make up for it somewhere else. Podsednik should have been a first rounder, but I'm not complaining.

Reyes could also steal 50+ if healthy, but that's a big 'if.'

About Bonderman, I was just thinking of his value to a team, but yeah, in fball he could be in Weaver territory. He'll still get more strikeouts and has a chance for a very special season, while Weaver is more of a known quantity in his mediocrity.

[ March 24, 2005, 05:41 PM: Message edited by: bjoak ]

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 11:55 am

For all the Pod Cult that seems to brewing here...listen, the guy had 1 year, thats right, just one year where he put up meteoric numbers.

Crawford is young and will continue to get better as he sees more pitching. The comparison of these 2 hitters is just outrageous with all due respect to my fellow Rhode Islander. Podsednik will steal bases but he has to get on base. If he hits .250 that hurts and Crawford will come close to .300 this year I believe. He is just too talented and atheletic not to. Dont forget BA with Pods. Pods is definately an attractive, if not second most attractive SB source out there and will compliment a team that can punt his BA. Those of you who believe the .240 average last year is bottom, remember those that try and pick bottoms get stinky fingers. He will hit some HR, absoultely. But so will Crawford.

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 12:01 pm

In response to Eddiejag, why do we all think that....why cant Pods hit 20hrs..etc

The simple response is atheliticsm and talent. Crawford is a much more talented and atheletic and has far better eye not to mention younger. If Pods cant get it right at 31 yo, when will he?

I think Crawford will have a great fantasy season. I dont own either player, but if I had the choice I would take Crawford in the first of Pods in the 4th. I had Pods last year, love the SB's, hate the rest. Last year I got him in the 7th or 8th. I believe that is what he was worth even with all of the SBS.

If he can improve OBP, I agree 100% he is worthy of 3rd round pick as we would score 110 runs, but that remains to be seen. If he cant get on base, dont be suprised to see him move lower in that lineup with fewer abs, and less runs. Basically then you could make the claim to take Alex Sanchez in the 10th versus Pods in the 4th.

Dyv · Post by **Dyv** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 12:11 pm

Personally, I'm rooting for 40 SB out of Taveras. Pods and Crawford were way too expensive.

eddiejag · Post by **eddiejag** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:00 pm

Big Fish didnt realize you were 30min from my house. Im not going to change your mind, and thats alright. I too love crawford , i think he does go over 300, and homers go up slightly 13 to 16.I still think pods will be awesome in chicago , easy 100 runs. good luck big fish , hope you have a good year. eddiejag

Goggles Pisano · Post by **Goggles Pisano** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:07 pm

Overvalued Hitter:

AL Mark Teixeira

NL TIED: Troy Glaus or Ken Griffey Jr.

Undervalued Hitter:

AL Kevin Millar

NL Mike Lowell

Overvalued Pitcher:

AL Brad Radke

NL Tim Hudson

Undervalued Pitcher:

AL Bartolo Colon

NL Brad Penny

Cooperstown · Post by **Cooperstown** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 1:32 pm

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Goggles Pisano:

[QB] Overvalued Hitter:

AL Mark Teixeira

NL TIED: Troy Glaus or Ken Griffey Jr.

Teixeira overvalued?

You're kidding, right?

From his rookie yr to his soph yr---

His walks/K's went from 37% to 58%.

His Ave went from .260 to .280.

HR's from 26 to 38.

He plays in an extreme hitters park w/ a great lineup around him.

I almost kissed the guy next to me when he fell to the 24th pick.

I'll bet even money now he has better numbers than Rolen.

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 2:40 pm

Hey Eddie.

Likewise my friend, best of luck. Lets show the world Rhode Island has more than just chowder and clamcakes and fradulent politicians.

Lets win it for Rhodey.

Balticsquids · Post by **Balticsquids** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:09 pm

I have to move to RI , the only guys i actually get along with on the (MB) and actully have a Clue are Ed and Fish(i might be Bias to fish) but still /////the rest of u NY laptop usuing gents are way to serious

Big Fish · Post by **Big Fish** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 3:35 pm

Hey Squid.

I agree. The guy I cant figure out is Bjoak. Time will tell and the smack talk will hopefully increase throughout the season. Last year, the boards were quiet after things got started. I hope we can compare our notes throughout the season. I have taken my shots at Podsednik vs Crawford and I may have to eat my words. That's what makes it fun, to have an opinion or conviction and stick with it. It will be fun to see what comes to fruition, but I have to say Squid, I like our chances. You have got a good team and I would take your squad over Bjoak if there are any takers willing to sidebar bet?

Best of luck.

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 4:55 pm

Originally posted by seefer:

Question: why is everyone projecting 45-50 SBs for Podsednik? Last year he hit .244 and stole 70 bases! I gotta think his AVG. and OBP will go up this year and Ozzie Guillen likes the small ball approach.

Everybody is so quick to say that Crawford COULD steal 70 bags this year. Well guys, Podsednik DID steal 70 bags last year. Not to offend anyone...but I'm willing to bet $200.00 that Podsednik has more steals in the regular season than Crawford. Even money. To the first taker.

~Lance

sportsbettingman · Post by **sportsbettingman** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 5:02 pm

If we consider each category evenly...HR, AVG, SB, RUN, RBI...I'll take Rolen vs. Tex-mex for another $200.00.

~Lance

Goggles Pisano · Post by **Goggles Pisano** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 6:59 pm

Originally posted by coops:

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Goggles Pisano:

[QB] Overvalued Hitter:

AL Mark Teixeira

NL TIED: Troy Glaus or Ken Griffey Jr.

Teixeira overvalued?

You're kidding, right?

From his rookie yr to his soph yr---

His walks/K's went from 37% to 58%.

His Ave went from .260 to .280.

HR's from 26 to 38.

He plays in an extreme hitters park w/ a great lineup around him.

I almost kissed the guy next to me when he fell to the 24th pick.

I'll bet even money now he has better numbers than Rolen. Here is how I figure he is overvalued.

The people that really wanted Tex bad in the late first round or early 2nd in '05 are under the assumption that there is a 99% huge likelihood that he will be better in '05 than '04. I see just the opposite or at the very best he repeats his '04 season. There is little room for growth in '05 over '04 because he has 0, yes I said 0, shot at repeating his monsterous July of last season in a single month this year. That was such a fluke and only guys like Bonds, Pujols, Helton put up those type of #'s in a month and have it justified by their talent. Tex may get to that level some day but not yet. Since every other month before and after July was not even close to that spectacular, don't expect it to happen again. Besides, his #'s suggest he tired in Sept last yr and still needs some seasoning to a full MLB schedule.

If you tone done his July #'s to the average of the other five months you get a player with glaringly less spectacular #'s. He could certainly take a step forward as an overall player in '05, but all that would do is match his '04 totals. If he remains the same % player as last year than he won't even approach those season totals.

In my book, you don't overpay pay for fluke career years, like Womack hitting .300, or inflated statistical abnormalities.

Hence, Tex is not ranked nearly as far ahead of other 1st baseman in true value, only in his perceived value

Keep in mind, this is all in good fun

MGBMARTY · Post by **MGBMARTY** » Thu Mar 24, 2005 9:14 pm

Texiera at 24th or 2nd round is fair value not under or over Based on position depth He is a solid 2nd Rd pick. I am sure Thome Ortiz all went in 2nd too as well as 3bs Chavez Rolen Ramirez Blalock etc matter of preference of which power Corner infielder you would want to fill.A better gage would be Texiera in 2nd vs Mourneau in the 5th or 6th round on the assumption he does not have the Mumps or someother ailment Hey Eddie and Big Fish you guys from RI How far are you from Mohegan sun Westerly? I am up in Dutchess county NY not too far from RI probably spend equal time in New England and upstate NY Saratoga Guess I have an identity crisis and just for the record Not a Yankee or Sox fan but die hard Pirates fan

Marty