Post
by Edwards Kings » Mon Jul 06, 2009 2:11 am
I started this thread with posts from a log I keep to answer the question "What the hell was I thinking?" which inevitably is asked by all of us about out teams at some time or the other. After the draft, I did not post my team online, but I did record what my (rosey) thoughts were at that time. So, before I post my mid-season tale-of-woe, I thought I would post my post-draft look at the team I drafted. This is honestly what I wrote to myself (Self thought I was crazy, too) without mid-season edit to protect the mentally infirmed.
The Draft – Las Vegas League #2 March 21, 2009 – As I landed in Las Vegas Thursday night, I had no idea who I was going to draft in the #8 spot. In the past, I have done some value drafts. The problem with my value mentality was I kept leaving my team short two categories; saves and steals, which I still think are overvalued. However, it is very difficult to be successful without taking advantage of all available points, so I promised myself to bite the bullet and make sure I had two closers (one stud) and speed. Other than that, I really had no firm drafting strategy.
I had KDS’d a preference of 1-4 (actually, I did 1-13, 15, 14) really hoping to get Jose Reyes. I wanted to lock down steals, which has been one of my achilles heal the last two years. Then, coming around the corner, I was going to try for Justin Morneau/Aramis Ramirez and maybe a Shane Victorino in the 4th. Sometime Friday, however, I got over my disappointment over not getting my preferred draft spot (it would not surprise me if something like 90% of the Main Event participants this year wanted one of the top four spots) I started crafting two draft plans. One was around whether or not a player from the “second tier” (Sizemore, Cabrera, or Braun) slipped to me. There were really two plans in that one given Sizemore’s speed (power/speed combo in the first three picks versus power/power/speed). None of them dropped, so I never had a chance to see if it would work.
The other plan started out being a Howard versus Teixeira competition. Howard’s impact would be obvious on the HR/RBI front but he comes with the high 60’s or low 70’s contact rate, so BA would be certainly at risk. In the low 70’s, he can still produce a mid-270’s BA rate. He has hit better than .280, but to me that is more luck than bankable. Tex brings less power, but risk as well as I just am not sure he is NY material. He could end up fodder for the grist mill press and does not carry the “clutch” hitter profile. Either way, it was going to be a power bat play. Instead, I ended up with an epiphany related to my eventual pick, Jimmy Rollins.
What turned my mind to Rollins is the reflection that he is about the same as Reyes, whom I wanted if I had gotten on of the first four picks, less about 20 SB. That is a lot, but it put me closer to a strategy that I thought might work for me. Then, I made up my mind to lock down some more speed with power upside as well as anchor my middle infield, which to me had very few second tier opportunities, but a ton of third-rates who at best could help you out in one or two categories and hopefully not kill you in the others. For this I knew I wanted Brandon Phillips. I had, according my probabilities which were based on the satellite league ADP’s, a 99% chance of getting him with the 8th pick of the second round, but less than a 1% chance in the third. I knew this would be taking him several picks to early and I knew I would leave some players on the table, but I viewed it as a strategic move. If it works, I can pat myself on the back. If not, you can line up to kick me in the butt for being so stupid.
With those two to lead off, I was going to go power/power as I knew I would be behind about half the teams in power by this time (Phillips can hit 30, but it cannot be counted on). Every year, only about 45 players (give or take a few) will hit 30+ HR. I knew I needed to get at least my share. By the third round, I was just going to take the best power hitter not named Dunn left. With Phillips on my team, I did not think I could absorb Dunn’s BA, no matter what the power. I also knew I was not going to take Nate McLouth in the third or the fourth. A lot of people are justifiably high on him, but as a wise man once said, some people are Missouri/Missouri types (show me twice). I am one. I was also kicking around taking a catcher in the fourth, like a Martinez or Soto. I opted out as I view early catcher selections as gambles because of the position they play, and with a Rollins/Phillips combo, I had all the risk I could take for so early in the draft.
In the fifth, I was going to take a closer. I thought I would have a small (16%) chance at Papelbon , a good chance (77%) at Nathan, and the best chance at Lidge (89%). I would be happy with either one. The sixth was going to be my first starter and I wanted Shields and had a good chance to get him (67%). Seven, eight, nine and ten were going to be based on available power, position (the probability that I would be without a corner by this time would have me searched for best available) and pitcher (at least one more starter) availability. If I left the top ten rounds needing mainly starting pitching, outfielders and two catchers, I would feel pretty good.
So what happened? Like I mentioned earlier, the consensus top seven were gone so I picked Rollins. The second round was painful as Phillips WAS there, but also Carl Crawford, Carlos Lee, Matt Holliday, BJ Upton, and Lance Berkman. It was a tough call as all of those were much better “value” plays. I stuck to my (hopefully not empty) guns and took the Cincy 2nd baseman. I looked now at getting some power, but by some strange miracle, BJ Upton made it back to me in the third. This I took as a sign and while it meant I would probably be chasing power the rest of the draft, I could not pass it up. After his one week of extra spring training, hopefully Upton will be a studly anchor to my outfield and with Rollins/Phillips, I pretty much had my SB’s wrapped up as well as a good solid base for runs scored. Now I definitely throw out any thought of taking a catcher in the fourth. I am looking for a solid power source. The choices in my mind were Ortiz (whom I promptly pass on due to age/injury/position concerns), McLouth, and Pence. McLouth is the obvious pick here based on the ADP’s, but I took Pence, probably as much as a round early. I have generally been high on Pence, even with his funky swing. In my draft notes, I had him projected to hit 6th in the Astro line-up, but they have been having him hit 2nd recently, which is so much the better. In the fifth, I took Lidge according to plan as Papelbon (10th pick, 4th round) and Nathan (5th pick, 5th round) were already gone.
The second five went pretty much as planned, but I had to reach a round or two for players I thought “fit” my team, but may not have been “value” plays. In the sixth, I wanted my first SP and pitchers were flying off the board, as expected. I had my rankings for pitchers I might be able to get as Shields, Beckett, Lackey, Kazmir, and King Felix. The last two probably went seventh round in most leagues, but again in this draft I am not afraid to stretch. Lackey (thank the baseball gods taken 4th pick of the 6th round), Shields (stolen from me by RedRyder with the 5th pick of the 6th round), and Beckett (6th pick of the 6th round) left me with the choice of Kazmir or Felix. I went Kazmir because of his supporting team.
By the time my next pick came around, 21 corner men were taken with seven owners having two already and seven having one, so I was the only one with no cornerman. To me, the best remaining were Figgins, Beltre and Gordon. I didn’t so much need what Figgins was offering, and didn’t feel I could afford Gordon’s BA, so I took generally reliable Beltre, who is also in a contract year. In the eighth, a pitcher who started out in the Fall mocks as a 10th or 11th round pick had gotten hot and moved up a round or two in the latest ADP’s. I am real high on Javier Vazquez and his 200 IP, 200 K potential, so I made him my second SP pick. He could end up the real anchor on my team. In the ninth, I was not really looking OF here as I already had BJ Upton and Hunter Pence, but Brad Hawpe was here and this is about where he should be drafted. I have him penciled in for 25 HR, but if the stars line up right, 30 is not out of the question and he should be as good a #3 OF as just about anybody has.
I reached again in the 10th for a player who forever has had upside, Edwin Encarnacion. I had him batting 5th in the Reds line-up, but he appears to be batting 6th most of the time, which is not so good for me. The reach was at least a round or two, so I am hoping this gamble pays off. After ten, I have two MI, two CM, three OF, one Closer, and two Starters. Going in the second ten rounds, a second closer is at the top of my wish list (so I can leave the first draft in three years with two), with starting pitching the next priority, some mid-round decent power-types, and at least one catcher. If any MI or CM drop a round or two, I will snag one of those as well, so my sticking to plan has given me some breathing room (i.e. I am not stretching for MI or steals) to sit back and wait for some value picks if they show up. None really did as the league I am in has too many good players to let too much of that happen and most of my luck I think was used up on the BJ Upton slide.
There were a lot of closer choices still left on the table up through the 149th pick of the draft. Then six closers went in the next eight picks and all I could do was mark them off. I wanted a Heath Bell or a Chad Qualls type, but both of those were snatched up during the run. The best available closer left to me I thought was Mike Gonzalez. Injury prone for sure, but he has been saying (stop me if you have heard this one before) that he feels better than he has in years, so as a second closer he may not be too bad. He is bringing heat again, so it may work out. Sounds like I am trying to convince myself, doesn’t it? Still, the closers left after my pick were Hanrahan, Devine, Motte, Lindstrom, Lyon, Sherrill, Percival and Hoffman (old, declining K-rate). I think Gonzalez is better than those. But now I have my two closers. Check that off my list and I have one less thing to worry about in the draft.
I was waffling about whether or not to pick the best bat or the best arm, but starting with Derek Lowe, (11th round, 10th pick), Matt Garza (11th round, 13th pick), KJ Duke’s pick of Josh Johnson (12th round, 2nd pick), and RedRyder getting Harang (12th round, 5th pick), I decided to join the run and pick either Danks or Verlander. I went with Danks (Verlander was picked next) even though I think he is at risk because of the extra innings he pitched last year. By this time, however, just about every pick carries some risk and if anyone can handle the innings, I have a feeling Danks can. Now I really need a bat and I am looking for guys who are not too old and are maybe coming off sub-par year(s). I get my firstbaseman by nabbing Paul Konerko. This is about where he had been going in the satellites and at 32 I feel he has some left in the tank, especially given his home field.
At 14, I grabbed my third Red and first catcher in Ramon Hernandez. I do not expect great things out of him (some think his new home park will help him, but it is not like Baltimore is a pitchers haven), but with a very little bit of luck, he could hit for decent average again and pop 15 to 20 HR. He may not be one of the Super M’s, but he could very easily be a top ten catcher and not a bad catcher anchor.
At fifteen, I went for one of my “sleepers” in Wandy Rodriguez. I think he fits perfectly on my team and last year he much improved his road splits. At 30, I do not think break-out is the right word, but he will be one of the better fourth starters. Pretty much from here on out, I am targeting specific players whom I think are either solid, rebound candidates, or unheralded. At 16 I picked up Felipe Lopez as my final MI. He will not crack 30 SB again (much less 40), but he is hitting leadoff in a powerful offensive line-up. A 15-15 mark with a very good BA will make him a very valuable pick. And he could more.
At 17 I went Andy Sonnanstine. Great team, should end the year with good ERA/WHIP. Won’t help me much in K’s, but the first four SP’s should cover that nicely and he can win 15 games. Good #5 for me, especially from here on out in LV#2 where I felt like good SP were scarcer than hens teeth. At 18, I picked Hafner. He may not hit 40, but at 31/32 he is not done. Thirty HR is within his reach. He is an 18th round pick who will spend most of his time batting 4th in a good line-up. If Pronk can give me closer to a .300 (which he has done frequently in the past) BA rather than .250 (which he has done frequently in the past) BA, he will not lose AB to Garko. At 19 I went with one of last years “hot” players, Chase Headley. He hates hitting in Petco, so I want to use him on his road games as much as possible and maybe he will be traded. Probably better as my 5th OF than my 4th, but he has much upside. John Baker, who is batting 2nd ahead of Hanley, is my second catcher whom I got in the 20th round. My friend Dave Clum said the scouts think this kid is a legit hitter, so I am hoping he will help not hinder my BA. If he can hold up in the 2 hole, he also will give me a good source of runs, rare in catchers.
After this, I am filling in holes. Bronson Arroyo (21st) will be lead guitar and hopefully a decent #6, though I would like it if he was my part time #7 SP. I picked Ryan Church in the 22nd. He was showing his pedigree pre-concussion and if he gets 500+ AB, I will consider him the pick of my draft. I picked Chris Duncan 23rd and Colby Rasmus 25th, so one of them could be my fifth OFer or UT if Headley, Church, or Hafner have problems. Rafael Soriano (24th) is a good handcuff to Gonzalez. Overbay (26th), Griffey (27th), Crede (28th), Lugo (29th) and CJ Wilson (30th) round out the spares and two of them are already gone in my mind from my team (Crede and Wilson) in my search for more starting pitching, which is my greatest weakness. My second biggest concern is BA. Most of my guys COULD have good BA and all HAVE had good BA, but many ARE just a capable of hitting .250. Barring injury, speed and runs scored should not be an issue and I may take one of the top two spots in both. I will not lead my league in HR or RBI, but I have a good chance at getting 12 points in each.
For pitching, Saves should be alright (say 12 or 13 points). ERA and K’s are about 12 points each. The back end of my rotation is weak, so I need some help there or my WHIP could be middle of the pack. Wins are unpredictable, but with Tampa, Chicago (AL), and Atlanta holding my core guys with Houston providing adequate support for Wandy, I hope to reach my goals there, too.
Baseball is a slow, boring, complex, cerebral game that doesn't lend itself to histrionics. You 'take in' a baseball game, something odd to say about a football or basketball game, with the clock running and the bodies flying.
Charles Krauthammer
Lance,
! As it is, there are no changes in the make-up of my team. So, I am going definitely with my “best” starters in Vazquez, Wandy, Danks and Sonnanstine. Brett Anderson should get Colorado in Oakland, so that looks like a good match-up. That leaves Arroyo (one at TOR), Owings (two at TOR and CLE) and Davis at home versus LAA. Not very palatable. I have that consistent feeling that whomever I leave on the bench will pitch well and whoever I start will have a meltdown, but ain’t that always the case. I need to grow a pair and stick with someone and I think those someones will be Davis and Arroyo.