Post
by DOUGHBOYS » Tue Sep 24, 2013 9:38 am
Right, Mike?
The other night I had insomnia and I was thinking about Votto and the Reds as I was making a pick for a mock draft for next year.
I'll copy and paste part of my reply here (yes, even my replies to e-mails in mock drafts are long)
I have insomnia right now, so was happy to see it was my pick. This will probably be pretty long.....
Tulo, Beltre, Longoria and other smart picks are available. I don't like em. Tulo has not learned how to play SS and keep healthy. I feel Beltre is starting to release 'greatest hits' records and Longoria had almost a full year of health and still didn't impress me. In thinking about who I was gonna take, I thought about how schmart Managers have become. What was wrong with Ruth and Gehrig in the middle of the Yankees lineup? Nowadays, Managers only put lefties together vs. a right handed pitcher. This is supposed to impress us with their schmarts. No Randy Choate is going to come into a game and give my lefties a noogie!
Joe Maddon gets enough credit as a Managerto start a Visa Store.
Have you heard from Kelly Johnson lately? Neither have I.
You see, some players are like my back porch, they wither or get rusty when not used. Carlos Pena turned into Kelly Johnson and Kelly Johnson turned into David Dejesus. But Maddon will be damned if they're hitting together.
Now, I know these three lefties aren't Ruth and Gehrig.
But what about Votto and Bruce?
These are big boys. No Ruth and Gehrig, but darned good hitters. Pitchers fear them. Even lefties.
But Dusty fears Randy Choate.
Randy Freakin' Choate.
And I don't mean Choate personally, but all the left handed specialist that Choate represents.
Ruth and Gehrig never faced Choate. They faced a 95 mph fastball from Lefty Grove in the first inning and a 93 mph fastball from Lefty Grove in the ninth inning.
Bruce hits .249 vs lefties. Votto, .258. Neither of those stats are embarrassing, but for some reason, Managers feel better with Todd Frasier and his .235 average against lefties.
Because Frasier SHOULD hit a lefty. And, you know it's true, Dusty feels a lot smarter with him facing a lefty.
Quit it Dusty! And all quit it all you schmart Managers.
Just put your best hitters in the middle of the lineup. How long did Nick Markakis hit third while Chris Davis missed some at bats hitting fifth?
Davis is a middle of the lineup hitter. Meaning third or fourth.
So were Ruth and Gehrig.
So are Votto and Bruce.
Quit it Dusty. Just quit it.
Note to self: Quit blabbering so much when insomnia strikes!
Part of Joey Votto's problem is Joey Votto. He likes the way he hits....or doesn't hit.
For him, it's a good approach and he's not changing.
The Reds don't mind the approach. On base percentage means a lot in real baseball.
We, the fantasy player are the one's that are truly affected.
Sabrmeticians love Votto's walks. I, as a fantasy player abhor them as lost opportunity.
As many true at bats that Votto gets, he may as well be hitting ninth in a lineup for a fantasy player.
We have that information and it is up to us to decide what to do with Votto.
He won't be on a team of mine next year. Fantasy-wise, for me, he is not a first round player.
Out of 15 drafters, some will disagree with me in taking him there.
What is the opposite of a 'value pick' ?
Whatever the name for it is, I figure that is what that drafter will get.
But, as you can see from the e-mail above, it is not all Votto's fault.
Dusty Baker goes out of his way to be schmart by insisting a right handed batter behind Votto is the schmart thing to do.
It isn't.
The Reds should be putting their BEST hitter behind Votto. For awhile, that was Phillips. Lately it has been Bruce.
Baker is afraid to put Bruce behind Votto because of the Randy Choate syndrome.
A disease that seemingly strikes all Managers.
Managers have been put in a Choate-hold and they don't know how to get out of it.
Instead, Dusty puts Ludwick behind Votto and Votto gets walked five times while Luddy goes 0fer.
Schmart!
Managers have become very stupid in their schmartness. Putting Votto and Bruce together could rack up early runs. Enough to put Choate's ass where opposing Managers want it.
Sitting on the bullpen bench.
His team, out of the game because of the Votto/Bruce destruction on the starting pitcher.
I won't even bring up how Votto would be a far better second hitter in the lineup than third.
Omigod!
Choo, Votto, Bruce.
Dusty would be thrown out of the schmart Managers Association!
Some may say that this year is an anomaly. That Votto will go back to his rbi ways next year.
I think there is a possibility he may get less. And another possibility that Votto sets a walks record.
Here's how.
Let's say the Reds don't sign Choo and can't find a leadoff hitter to replace him over the season....
You already know where I'm going, right?
That's right, Billy Hamilton becomes the lead off hitter.
Hamilton has ants in his pants. He's not staying at first base while Dusty's right handed hitting second hitter bats.
So, how many times will Joey Votto come up next year with a base open?
In this scenario, a lot.
And Joey Votto with a base open will walk 85% of the time.
Don't look it up, I just made that up...but it's probably true.
Votto first round drafters will not think of Hamilton being on second or third base as a detriment. They'll see him as being in 'scoring position'. Pitchers see it as an opportunity to avoid Votto.
It'll fill up the rbi column for whoever hits behind Votto again. This year, it was Brandon Phillips.
Next year, it may be Hunter Pence, we don't know.
Whoever it is, will again have just as much worth or even more worth than the first round player the pitcher avoids.
Votto going 0-0 in five at bats is par for Votto's course. He's the hitter in baseball that gets paid as much not to hit, as hit.
0-0 with an rbi in fantasy is like Brandon Moss being platooned and entering a game to pinch hit and hitting a sac fly.
As owners seeing the stats next day, we'll look at the Moss rbi and shrug.
When seeing the same from Votto, we'll shake our heads.
We want more from a first round pick than a 0-0 with an rbi.
Some would even want an 0-3, just to let us know he's trying.
But Votto's mindset is that a walk is as good as a hit. It doesn't work that way in fantasy.
And with Baker's enabling ways of putting Ludwick behind Votto, those walks will just keep coming.
On my tombstone-
Wait! I never had the perfect draft!
Your boy, Joey, had quite the game last night - he was on base five times and did not make a single out. On the other hand, his line reads: 0 for 0, BA .000, Runs 0, Home Runs 0, RBI 1, SB 0, Walks 5. Joey saw 26 pitches without putting one in play. The next batter in the Reds lineup, Ryan Ludwick, went 0 for 5 (0 for 4 with runners in scoring position). Despite 707 plate appearances, Joey now ranks 57th in MLB (per Fangraphs) with 73 RBI. With last night's bases loaded walk, he moved into a tie in RBIs with Jose Bautista (528 plate appearances) and that slugger, Daniel Murphy (672 plate appearances). He's only 1 RBI behind J.J. Hardy and Jed Lowrie (645 and 620 plate appearances, respectively), and 2 RBI behind Matt Dominguez, Pablo Sandoval and Salvador Perez (567, 565 and 508 plate appearances, respectively). (The fact that Salvador Perez has two more RBI than Joey Votto with approximately 200 less plate appearances could warrant its own thread, but I digress.)
Doughboys"