Funny how different folks will get different gut feelings about different players. Most of the time, when I read Dan's posts, I find myself nodding in agreement. Having done several drafts with Dan, I find that we often - but not always - have similar opinions on players. On this one, I find myself diametrically opposed to Dan's gut.
To me, Slot No. 2 is the easiest decision on the entire draft board. I almost prefer it to Slot No. 1 because the pressure is off and I don't have to make a tough decision that I may regret. I have Trout narrowly ahead of Miggy and a clear gap after that. After the last two years, I feel confident in saying that Miggy is the best pure hitter I have seen in my lifetime (born in '66; following baseball avidly since the early 70's). This may sound crazy after all of the great players I have seen over the last four plus decades, but I really do not recall anyone that can like Miggy. There may be some that could hit for a higher average (but not many), and some that could hit for more power (but not many), and some that could knock in runners better (but not many). But, I can't think of any hitter that could do it all as well as Miggy.
I can't explain Dan's gut feeling, other than, perhaps, it is because he saw a great hitter get injured, and then look human (for a change) as he battled to stay in his lineup and help his team (when many of the sport's prima donnas would have called it quits and sat). The memory of a human-hitting Miggy still is fresh, at least for now, until he obliterates the memory, as I expect him to do come April.
In terms of whether Miggy is attractive at Slot No. 2, I guess the question turns on whether you think he still is hurt, or likely to get hurt again. I have no reason to believe he won't be fresh to start the season. Although he is no longer a young player, he isn't old yet - still in his peak years, even if those peak years now may be limited. If anything, I think the news coming into this season is relatively positive. The move from 3B to 1B should help keep Miggy on the field (hello positional flexibility!). Moreover, even if he is banged up, now the Tigers can let V-Mart play a few games at first and let Miggy DH for a bit. The only downer is whether V-Mart will be able to provide adequate protection, and I do fear that Miggy will be pitched around even more than in the past. Still, I think the benefit of moving from 3B to 1B is about equal to the loss of protection - maybe not. There are no guarantees concerning health, and we all have had key players get hurt. But, if you assume health, it is tough to imagine Miggy not being one of the best hitters in the game in 2014. He is the model of consistency - he consistently mashes.
Dan, could your gut feeling simply be acid reflux from too many Doritos?
Mike
P.S. - If Miggy underperforms this year, you'll have one helluva "I told you so" at your disposal, and I will not longer doubt your gut.
